Developing Programs: What does this entail?

Michael Drinkwater, PIKL

CARE Ethiopia Senior Staff Meeting

October 2008

Remember why we need to change…

Underlying causes of poverty not being addressed

Short term projects do not address poverty New development approaches Northern policies Social movements Critique of International NGOs Importance of impact assessment

SII on Women’s Empowerment: Our portfolio

15% positioned for sustained societal impact 60% positioned for individual/small impact 25% showing little or no impact

WHY?: Failure to target UCPs - what really drives poverty in context No theory of how UCPs actually change – and our contribution Too “CARE-centric”- UCPs require synergies and alliances One-off projects fail to build on prior gains and relationships Organizational amnesia: project closes, staff go, learning ends Organizational measures of success – size and stability

The Evidence: We must change

Definition of a Program

A program is a coherent set of initiatives by CARE and our allies that involves a long term commitment to specific marginalized and vulnerable groups to achieve lasting impact at broad scale on underlying causes of poverty and social injustice.

This goes beyond the scope of projects to achieve positive changes in human conditions, in social positions and in the enabling environment.

8 Characteristics of a Program

1. A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of a specific group, realized at broad scale.

2. A thorough analysis of underlying causes of poverty, gender inequality, and social injustice at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders.

3. An explicit theory of change that is rigorously tested and adapted to reflect ongoing learning.

4. A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE and our partners to contribute significantly to the transformation articulated in the theory of change.

5. Ability to promote organizational and social learning, to generate knowledge and evidence of impact.

6. Contribution to broad movements for social change through our work with and strengthening of partners, networks and alliances.

7. A strategy to leverage and influence the use and allocation of financial and other resources within society for maximizing change at a broader scale.

8. Accountability systems to internal and external stakeholders that are transparent.

A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift

It is difficult to shift our mindsets about our work, about what it should be about, and about the scope and scale we need to reach. Projects – and even related sequences of projects – are an answer to the question, “What can CARE do?” (even if there are contractual partnerships within the project). Programs – when crafted correctly – respond to a different question: “What is the change in society (impact) that we wish to catalyze?”

A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift - 2

A program is more about CARE articulating a picture and vision of social change – one of course in line with government and MDG strategies – that moves others to join forces with us (and us with them) to achieve something far beyond our sole ability to accomplish.

Elements of a Pathway to Becoming a Programmatic Organization

Components of Program Design

(5) PROGRAM STRATEGY

Coherent set of initiativeswith clearly articulated

strategies for achieving the outcomes

With and By Whom

E.g. Allies,

strategic partners, and other

stake-holders

(3) SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS (Context, UCP, gender, power analysis)

(1) IMPACT GROUP + DESCRIPTION

(2) LONG-TERM IMPACT GOAL

(4) THEORY OF CHANGE

CAUSAL PATH

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

Year 1

ASSUMPTIONS+

RISKS

(6) LEARNING ANDIMPACT

MEASUREMENTSYSTEM

Year 15

Hypothesis“if-Then”

Hypothesis“if-Then”

How are new programs different?

Need to ensure that as COs reorganize their project portfolios into programs, that this is not simply a relabeling exercise (sectors now become programs)

Importance of starting with clear identification of impact populations

Distinction between impact population, target group and stakeholders

Male and female youth living with HIV/AIDS

Impact Group

Youth urban daily laborers

Unemployed youth (addicted)

Urban Unemployed youth

Rural-urban migrant CSWs

ACSI

Chat ‘Bet’/houses

Ønp?

Women Association

Youth Association

Micro enterprises

MunicipalityPA

CBOS (Target + Stakeholders)

Microfinance institutions

Private sector (Industrialists)

BOLSA

Like-minded LNGOS

Micro Finance Inst.

Brokers

Community at transit Woreda?

MSE?Police

Education Office

Bureau of Youth & Sports

Health Bureau

Hotel owners & house renters

Youth associations, Women associations, Kebele Administration

Schools community

Urban youth parents

Resource poor youth in urban and peri- urban areas vulnerable to HIV & AIDS

Key:Blue – (Sub) Impact groups Yellow – Stakeholders Purple – Target groups

Impact, Target, Sub Groups and Stakeholders

Defining Impact Populations

The impact group for a program is the specific population group whose lives should show a measurable, enduring improvement through the effects of the program different from the broader target group with whom we work needs to be defined specifically, eg not just ‘women’ or ‘girls’

Situational Analysis

Includes any or all of: Context analysis UCP analysis (can be related to MDGs) Gender analysis Power analysis

All these forms of analysis should occur at multiple levels, and with stakeholder involvement (in ways that are feasible)

Long Term Impact Goal

This is a 10-15 year ambition, and specifies the kind of enduring impact we would like to see being achieved in the lives of the impact population group, at broad scale

Why Theories of Change? Social change is a messy, complex

affair, rather than a predictable, linear process

But while social change is complex and incoherent, it is not unintelligible

We have to be adaptive, iterative and non-linear – we have to seize opportunities and learn what works and what doesn’t work.

Theory of Change: Working Definition

A set of hypotheses and critical A set of hypotheses and critical assumptions that make up a assumptions that make up a causal causal pathway of changepathway of change which is the basis of which is the basis of the program design.the program design.

Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements between different levels of the change between different levels of the change pathwaypathway

CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact GroupsGroups

Theory of Change - 2Theory of Change - 2

THEORY OF CHANGE

ASSUMP-TIONS + RISK S

Y ear 1

Y ear 15

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

Hypothesis“if-then”

Hypothesis“if-then”

CAUSAL PATH

Change Pathways, and their Assumptions

A path of change is like a road map – but one where we have an idea of the destination, but will have to experiment to find an effective route of getting there

The change pathway(s) laid out for achieving our long-term impact goal has to be hypothetical because it is based on assumptions

It gives us a hypothetical answer to the question: what is the change we are working for and what needs (beliefs, activities, approaches) to happen for the change to come about?

It serves as a planning and reflection tool and It serves as a planning and reflection tool and should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re-the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re-examining the pace of change)examining the pace of change)

Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 1

Narrative FormThe most socially economically, politically marginalized women will be empowered by women’s greater exercise of choice in decision affecting their lives at all levels and reduced violence against women and girls. This, accompanied by a strong social movement built on women’s solidarity and participation of men, will have a multiplier effect in realizing the impact vision

Domains of Change

Domain of change: can refer to (a) a group of people, (b) a relationship between two groups of people, or (c) a system in which behavioral and structural change are essential to achieving an impact goal / overcoming the underlying causes of poverty and social injustice of the impact group.

The program is expected to influence behaviors and systems of the domain of change.

Domains of Change: Examples

Example from Bangladesh Marginalised Women Impact Statement: Path of change states that women will be empowered by:

Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting their lives Reduced violence against women

(including establishing and strengthening systems to deal with cases of VAW) Strong social movements built on women's solidarity and participation

of men

But also involves Addressing marginalization at different lifecycle stages Transforming institutions to address power imbalances between men

and women

Desired Long-term Goal(related to population impact group)

Domain of change Domain of Change Domain of Change

Breakthrough

Breakthrough

Current Situation, including underlying causes/barriers to change1

2

3

4

6

7

Pathways of change

Indicators related to breakthroughs, domains, and long-term goal

Assumptions and Risks

5 Stakeholders

Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 2

CARE Bangladesh Impact Statement on the most Socially,

Economically and Politically Marginalized Women

Women will be empowered by:

Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting their lives

Reduced violence against women

Strong Social movements built on women's solidarity and participation of men

+ X

Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 3 The “+” sign signifies that the two domains are not necessarily

inter-dependent but mutually supportive. The intent is to see a positive trendline in both, with one reinforcing the other.

The strong social movements is a multiplier on the achievements of the two domains of change. Social movements will sustain and carry forward those achievements and will scale up the impact at national level. It is not enough for CARE Bangladesh to be satisfied with empowering a few women; it must think about the next generation.

The multiplier effect is also present in the pressure for structural change upon the institutions and norms that survive the cycles of repressive governments with the potential to help temper an unstable political environment.

Finally, our SII research has shown us that solidarity building is crucial for women’s empowerment.

Theories of Change: Summary

A Theory of Change consists of a number of domains of change linked together in an hypothesis to achieve the impact goal

It has also a set of change pathways, with identified breakthrough areas

Together, the domains of change + the pathways provide a plausible set of hypotheses and assumptions to address the major underlying causes/ barriers

It need not be complex, but it must be logical and coherent

Lasting change…

If we assume a 15 year impact goal has to do with transformation in the lives of the people who compose the impact group …

Then it is important that the pathway of change must be one that brings about ‘social change’ which is deep and lasting. That is the result of actually addressing underlying causes of poverty and social injustice.

Breakthroughs…

Breakthrough: a change that represents a leap forward or an advance on the pathway of change that is not easily reversed.

In its greatest magnitude, it is a structural or systemic change. But on a smaller scale, it can manifest as a precedent or something that happens for the first time.

We will seek breakthroughs in the change domains relevant to the Theory of Change

Learning and Impact Measurement System

This system needs to allow us to do two things:

Test – and adapt – our theory of change

Measure progress towards achieving impact

Learning and Impact Measurement System - 2

Require a core set of outcome and impact indicators, aligned with global set (MDIs +)

A set of qualitative and quantitative methods – but as light and clearly focused as possible, and integrated into work roles

An annual reflection and learning process

Changing the Knowledge Hierarchy

Data

Information

K nowledge

Intelligence

Wisdom

A Program Approach

Data

Information

K nowledge

Intelligence

Wisdom

A Project Approach

Figure 5: Comparison of CARE’s Current K nowledge Hierarchy with a Future Hierarchy

In a future scenario under a program approach, CARE would produce far less data and information but derive more knowledge, intelligence and wisdom from this reduction, as compared with the project approach. Proportionally, the production of knowledge will exceed that of data and information.

Is this feasible? We do not do this alone We must mirror the change we wish to see This is the change the specific impact

populations desire… there is always energy that can be tapped and created, support that can be found; it is really up to our desire and imagination

Are we serious? What is our level and ambition and commitment? What do we want CARE Bangladesh to become?