Developing Highway Safety Performance Metrics in an Advanced Connected Vehicle Environment

Utilizing Near-Crash Events from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Kevin Majka & Alan Blatt, CUBRC

First Annual TransInfo SymposiumAugust13, 2015

Buffalo, NY

Outline of Presentation

1. Introduction and Motivation

2. Methodology

3. Data Sources

4. Preliminary Results

5. Next Steps

6. Summary

2

Buffalo, NY

Rome, NY

Dayton, OH

D.C. Area

San Antonio, TX

Roswell, NMPalmdale, CA

• CUBRC is an independent scientific not-for-profit corporation established in 1983 with core competencies in:

• Aeronautics• Chemical, Biological, and Medical Sciences• Information Exploitation• Public Safety & Transportation

• $45M in sales, 130 employees (1/3 of which have advanced degrees) in 2014

• CUBRC has a history of successful collaborations with private companies, public agencies, and academia (SUNY at Buffalo).

Introduction to CUBRC

3

Motivation

4

• This research represents work in progress

• MAP-21 requires a greater emphasis on developing performance measures to justify roadway safety improvements

• Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, Infrastructure Based Technologies, and Active Traffic Management have the potential to greatly reduce the number and severity of crashes

• This project proposes an alternative highway safety performance measure through the monitoring and classification of near crash events

Collaborators

Methodology

5

• Near crash events are normally defined as the exceedance of accepted thresholds for various vehicle kinematics such as lateral/longitudinal acceleration/deceleration, forward or rear time to collision, and yaw rates

• Kinematics data from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study can be used as a surrogate of CV measures and as a way to identify new metrics and demonstrate their value

• Near Crash events can be compared to the number of fatal, serious, and property damage only crashes and rates

Data Sources

6

Preliminary Results

7

NYS SMS Data for 2013:(K) Fatal 54(A) Incapacitating Injury 632 (B) Non Incapacitating Inj. 1,116(C) Possible Injury 5,577(O) Property Damage Only 14,883

VMT (millions) 5,036

Crash Rates per 100 million VMT(K) Fatal 1.07(A) Incapacitating Injury 12.55 (B) Non Incapacitating Inj. 22.16(C) Possible Injury 110.74(O) Property Damage Only 295.53

Crash Severity Distribution: Erie County, NY, 2013

Preliminary Results (Cont')

8

SHRP2 NDS Data (Total)Data Collection Sites 6Drivers 3,247Vehicles 3,362Trips 5,414,063 Vehicle Miles Travelled 49,700,000 Total Data 4 Petabytes

SHRP2 NDS Data (NY: InSight)Drivers 772Vehicles 784Trips 1,312,668 Vehicle Miles Travelled 8,006,145

Head Unit

Radar Unit DAS Main Unit AntennasOBD Connector

Rear Looking Camera

Preliminary Results (Cont')

9

SHRP2 NDS Data (NY: S06/InSight)(I) Most Severe 15/22(II) Police-reportable Crash27/46(III) Minor Crash 36/121(IV) Low-risk Tire Strike 57/111

VMT (millions) 8.01

Rate per 100 million VMT (NY: S06/InSight)(I) Most Severe 187/275(II) Police-Reportable Crash 337/575(III) Minor Crash 450/1,512(IV) Low-Risk Tire Strike 712/1,387

I - Most Severe CrashAny crash that includes an airbag deployment; any injury; a vehicle roll over; a high Delta V; or that requires vehicle towing.

II - Police-Reportable Crash Includes sufficient property damage that it is police reportable (minimum of ~$1500 worth of damage, as estimated from video).

III - Minor Crash Physical Contact with Another Object. Includes most road departures

IV - Low-Risk Tire StrikeTire strike only with little/no risk element

Preliminary Results (Cont')

10

>= 0.0 20,405 < 0.0 13,189 < 0.0 5,238 -0.1 - 0.0 41,240 0.0 - 0.1 63,021 0.0 - 5.0 80,515 -0.2 - -0.1 55,716 0.1 - 0.2 46,338 5.0 - 10.0 17,591 -0.3 - -0.2 426,436 0.2 - 0.3 138,441 10.0 - 15.0 21,534 -0.4 - -0.3 563,129 0.3 - 0.4 381,154 15.0 - 20.0 57,471 -0.5 - -0.4 160,468 0.4 - 0.5 440,727 20.0 - 25.0 231,244 -0.6 - -0.5 29,145 0.5 - 0.6 176,931 25.0 - 30.0 465,359 -0.7 - -0.6 7,180 0.6 - 0.7 38,788 30.0 - 35.0 273,494 < -0.7 3,494 >= 0.7 8,623 >= 35.0 98,302 NULL 5,455 NULL 5,456 NULL 61,920 Total 1,312,668 Total 1,312,668 Total 1,312,668

0.0 - 1.0 1,050,401 0 358,473 0 588,445 1.0 - 2.0 6,439 1 3,516 1 24,931 2.0 - 3.0 2,151 2 756 2 4,153 3.0 - 4.0 1,081 3 351 3 1,249 4.0 - 5.0 623 4 195 4 534 5.0 - 6.0 377 5 118 5 276 6.0 - 7.0 253 6 78 6 176 7.0 - 8.0 187 7 65 7 111 >= 8.0 535 >= 8 258 >= 8 286 NULL 250,621 NULL 948,858 NULL 692,507 Total 1,312,668 Total 1,312,668 Total 1,312,668

Maximum Deceleration Maximum Lateral Deceleration

Maximum Turn Rate

Headway 0.0 - 0.5 s Traction Control Activation

ABS Activation

Next Steps

11

• Rectify crash numbers on InSight vs. SHRP2 S06 final report• Verify the exposure rates for SHRP2 fleet• Develop a mapping of kinematics to near crash & crash events

to provide a correlation coefficient and provide reliable metrics • Better define the relationship between near crashes and less

studied factors such as ABS and Traction Control activations • Expand analysis to other SHRP2 NDS test sites

Summary

12

• Data from SHRP2 NDS allows for the characterization of drivers while data from a CV environment could provide numerous more events for analysis

• In 2015 NHTSA will require that all new vehicles contain event data recorders to store vehicle kinematic data

• Near crash events can provide meaningful safety performance metrics and will be more widely available in the future

• The anticipated results of this project will provide transportation safety analysts with insights into the frequency of near crash events, pre-near crash contributing factors, and the types of evasive crash maneuvers

Questions?