Developing a Vision for the Hydrology Laboratory

Some early thoughts and discussion

Once upon a time,there was time.

Early Days• Study resources and business

portfolio– Observe, catalog, enjoy the

snow, hypothesize, enjoy some more snow, analyze, eventually develop conclusions

• Not serious questions:– Is HL doing important things?– Is everything being done at HL

essential?– Is HL as relevant as it

could/should be?– Will HL have to change to

support IWRSS?

Hydrology Laboratory

SES GS15 GS14 GS13 GS12 GS11 GS10 GS90

5

10

15

20

25

30

Total Staff (FTE + Contractors)74.5 HL + 14 NOHRSC

HL NOHRSC

6

8

4.58

16

HL Science and Modeling Branch

Hydromet Group

Hydrology Group

Hydraulics Group

Hyd. Ensemble Pred. Group

Hyd. Design Studies Center

3

5

9.5

11.5

3

HL Software Engineering Branch

HADS ITSG

AWIPS CHPS

NEXRAD

Hydrology Laboratory

SES GS15 GS14 GS13 GS12 GS11 GS10 GS90

5

10

15

20

25

30

Total Staff (FTE + Contractors)74.5 HL + 14 NOHRSC

HL NOHRSC

14%

19%

11%

19%

38%

HL Science and Modeling Branch

Hydromet Group

Hydrology Group

Hydraulics Group

Hyd. Ensemble Pred. Group

Hyd. Design Studies Center

9%

16%

30%

36%

9%

HL Software Engineering Branch

HADS ITSG

AWIPS CHPS

NEXRAD

A Few Principles

Systems Thinking and Approach

• Disconnected and fragmented are four-letter words• Wisdom in a childrens’ book– “The most priceless possession of the human race is the

wonder of the world; yet laterly, the utmost endeavors of mankind have been directed towards the dissipation of that wonder. Science analyzes all things to their component parts but neglects to put them together again.”• Kenneth Graham, Wind in the Willows

• Integration, Workflow, Integration, Workflow

Research to Operations

• “Why I made the trip”• A key metric of future success• Say hello to Technical Acquisition Standards – Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), p. 50 of IWRSS

Roadmap– International standard for describing and evaluating

state of technological development– Say “4, 5, 6, 7”

• R2O isn’t everything, however – need some blue sky in the portfolio too – a little bit of “3”

Technical Readiness Levels (TRL)1. Basic principles are observed and reported2. Technology concept and/or application formulated3. Analytical and/or experimental critical function or proof of concept4. Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment5. Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment6. System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant

environment7. System prototype demonstration in an operational environment8. Actual system proven through successful mission operations9. Actual system proven through successful mission operations (final

form)

External Collaboration

• Certainly the key to my professional success• Building communities is critical for developing

state-of-the-art complex scientific and technological systems– Breadth and depth

• Key to R2O– Thousands are delivering TRL 1-3– Cultivate the community, harvest the best

Technological Innovation

• Gary will need to keep his checkbook handy!

• Q’S Workshop – anticipate the future

Technological Innovation

• Science R2O and technology innovation are intertwined

• Moore’s Law – exponential performance increase per unit cost (e.g. doubling every 18 months)

• Nielsen’s Law – bandwidth availability increasing 50% per year

• Our goals are not just about running hydro software on computers – also about comms and service delivery mechanisms

Pragmatism (Science)

• Art of science– perfect is generally unattainable– Good handle on science lends common sense to

development of R2O solutions– Few absolutes

Transparency

• This lab is your lab, this lab is my lab, from California, to the New York Island…

• Clarity – shouldn’t be any question about what is going on– Difficult to attain and manage, however

Planning/Mapping – Long View

• We’re not building a teeter-totter – it’s complex and will take time

• Comprehensive blueprints (not artist’s renderings) are important to ensure successful system development– Shared Vision is critical– Integrated Design adhering to Vision is even more critical

• We’re not alone – IWRSS means what we do and how we do it is influenced by our consortium partners

DOGMA

• Few methodological absolutes

A Few Principles