Developing a Collaborative Research Agenda June 7, 2006 David Davidson, Project Director
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Developing a CollaborativeResearch Agenda
June 7, 2006David Davidson, Project Director
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• Mission—provide high quality research on policy issues related to Canada-US border
• Multidisciplinary research institute, w/ emphasis on trade, transportation, security, environment, energy, immigration
What is the BPRI?
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• Supports 108,000 jobs in Washington
• Daily: 3,100 trucks, $41 million of goods
• Daily: 19,500 cars
• Tourists, commuters, business travelers
Canadian Trade w/ Washington
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• Economic policy has intentional effects– Softwood tariff– Monetary policy (exchange rate)
• Security policy has unintentional effects– Mandates for new screening or IDs– Visa regulations – Alert levels
Trade Linked to Policy
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Cascade Gateway
Canada Dep’t. of Energy, Mines & Resources Victoria – Vancouver B.C. [map].6th ed. 1:500,000. N.T.S. No. 92 S.E. 1973
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Collaborative Approaches
• External Advisory Board
• Participation in transportation community
• Consultation with agencies
• Academic partners
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External Advisory Board
• Todd Harrison, WSDOT, Asst. Regional Administrator
• Jim Miller, WCOG, Executive Director
• Ken Casavant, Washington State University, Professor • Alicia Nolan, FHWA, Northern Border Transportation
Program Coordinator
• Chris Lawless, B.C. Investment Management Corporation, Chief Economist
• Pat Jacobsen, TransLink, Chief Executive Officer
• Greg Boos, Chang & Boos Attorneys at Law
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Consultation Process
• Pre-RFP meetings– WSDOT (freight, policy, and rail offices),
USDOT, WCOG, TRAC @ U.W., Pipeline Safety Trust, Whatcom Transp. Authority
• RFP circulated
• Internal project review
• External board review
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First Round Research
The Effect of Post-9/11 Security Measures on Commodity Trade Flows at Major Canada/U.S. Ports of Entry. Steve Globerman, Ph.D., WWU
Explaining Border Crossings at U.S.-Canada Border Stations in Whatcom County: An Econometric Investigation. Hart Hodges, Ph.D., WWU
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First Round Research (cont.)The Impact of Tariff Harmonization and
Perimeter Security Measures on Whatcom County's Industrial Structure and Transportation Patterns. Paul Storer, Ph.D., WWU
Cross-Border Port Competitiveness and the Environment in the Puget Sound and Georgia Basin. Jean Melious, J.D., WWU
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Second Round Research
Projections of Washington – British Columbia Trade and Traffic by Commodity, Route, and Border Crossing. Ken Casavant, Ph.D. & Eric Jessup, Ph.D., WSU
Understanding the Impact of Variability in Border Crossing Times on Regional Supply Chains. Anne Goodchild, Ph.D., UW, with added economic analysis by Steve Globerman, Ph.D., WWU
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Second Round Research (cont.)
An Investigation of Congestion Pricing Options for Southbound Freight at the Pacific Highway Crossing. Mark Springer, Ph.D., & Matt Roelofs, Ph.D., WWU
Risk Evaluation of Invasive Species Transport Across the U.S. – Canada Border in Washington State. Wayne Landis, Ph.D., WWU
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In-House Staff Products
• Border Policy Brief– WHTI’s Effects on WA State– Canadian Natural Gas & WA State– Immigration Near the B.C. – WA Border
• Cross-border transit
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David Davidson, Project DirectorBorder Policy Research InstituteWestern Washington University516 High StreetBellingham, WA 98225-9110(360)[email protected]
BPRI web site: www.ac.wwu.edu/~bpri
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Canadian Same Day Travelers
Western Washington UniversityCenter for Economic and Business
Research
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Month - Year
Per
son
s
2005:July - Jan = 400,000
2004:July - Jan = 107,000
Hodges: Explaining Border Crossings
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Canadian Same Day Travelers
Western Washington UniversityCenter for Economic and Business
Research
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Month - Year
Per
son
s
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
$US
/ $
CA
Exchange Rate
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Variables Considered• Exchange Rates• Relative Prices
– Gasoline– Cigarettes– Clothing– Health Care– Electronics
• Wages• Store Openings• “History”
Western Washington UniversityCenter for Economic and Business
Research
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Variables that Really Matter• Exchange Rates YES• Relative Prices
– Gasoline YES– Cigarettes– Clothing– Health Care YES (weakly)– Electronics
• Wages• Store Openings• “History” YES
Western Washington UniversityCenter for Economic and Business
Research
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Predicting 2002-2005
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Month - Year
Per
son
s
Western Washington UniversityCenter for Economic and Business
Research
Forecast
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David Davidson, Project DirectorBorder Policy Research InstituteWestern Washington University516 High StreetBellingham, WA 98225-9110(360)[email protected]
BPRI web site: www.ac.wwu.edu/~bpri
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Storer: Tariff harmonization & perimeter security
• Perimeter security.
• Customs Union.
• Rules of Origin.
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General Methodology
• Predict the effects of deeper integration on sector-level trade-flows.
• Construct sector-level freight flow benchmarks.
• Apply sectoral trade flow growth rates to freight flows.
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The Effect of a Customs Union
• Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models predict trade effects.
• The Strategic Freight Transportation Analysis database was used for freight benchmarks.
• Transportation impacts rival those of NAFTA (example: 25% increase in trade).
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Ghosh and Rao (Journal of Policy Modeling, 2005)• Impact on Canadian Exports:
Agriculture: + 20%, Resources: +1%..
• Impact on Canadian Imports:Food: + 171.2%, Resources: +2.5%.
• The impact of the customs union is mainly due to elimination of rules of origin rather than to the common external tariff.
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Sector Shares for Canada-Related Freight(Source: SFTA)
SCTG Group To Canada From Canada
Trucks Pounds Trucks Pounds
Agriculture (0-9) 34.6% 30.1% 15.3% 14.1%
Minerals (10-19) 4.0% 3.0% 2.1% 2.3%
Chemicals & Wood Products
(20-29) 27.0% 24.4% 47.8% 51.7%
Metals &Machinery
30-39 17.7% 21.2% 18.9% 17.2%
Miscellaneous(40-49) 8.1% 10.0% 11.0% 10.1%
Empty / Unknown90-99 8.6% 11.2% 4.9% 4.5%
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2003 Rules of Origin Liberalization
Value of U.S. Imports(Billions of U.S. $)
Share of
Total Import Value
Number OfHTS-6 Codes
Liberalized Not Liberalized
Liberalized Not Liberalized
2002 $17.96 $192.56 8.5% 75 5,210
2005 $39.33 $248.21 13.7%
Growth 118.9% 28.9%