Deutsche Bank 2012 Aviation and Transportation Conference
Transcript of Deutsche Bank 2012 Aviation and Transportation Conference
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Donald W. SealeExecutive Vice Presidentand Chief Marketing Officer
Deutsche Bank 2012 Aviation and Transportation Conference
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Agenda
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• Second Quarter & First Half Results
• Third Quarter-to-Date
• Market Drivers
• Business Outlook
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Second Qtr Second Qtr Favorable2012 2011 $ %
Railway operating revenues $ 2,874 $ 2,866 $ 8 --
Railway operating expenses 1,940 1,991 51 3%
Income from railway operations $ 934 $ 875 $ 59 7%
Railway operating ratio 67.5 69.5 2.0 3%
Operating ResultsSecond Quarter 2012 vs. 2011 ($ Millions)
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Revenue$2.9 Billion, up $8 Million
RPU$1,597, down ($7) per unit
Volume1,799,300 units, up 12,400 loads
2Q 2011 Volume RPU 2Q 2012
$2,866 $2,874$20 ($12)
2Q 2012 Revenue $ in Millions & y-o-y Percent Change
Components of Revenue Growth $ in Millions
Railway Operating RevenueSecond Quarter 2012 vs. 2011
Merchandise$1,556+9%
Coal$755(15%)
Intermodal$563+4%
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2Q 2012 Volume (000’s) & y-o-y Percent Change
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2Q 2011 2Q 2012
Coal
Merchandise
Intermodal
+4%
+5%
(12%)
1,786.9 1,799.3Coal down (12%) (21%) decline in Utility 6% gain in Export2% gain in Domestic Met
Intermodal up 5% 10% gain in Domestic more than offsets (1%) decline in International
Merchandise up 4% Gains in Automotive, MetCon and Chemicals more than offset decline in Paper
Total volume up 1%
Railway Volume Second Quarter 2012 vs. 2011
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First Half First Half Favorable2012 2011 $ %
Railway operating revenues $ 5,663 $ 5,486 $ 177 3%
Railway operating expenses 3,984 4,011 27 1%
Income from railway operations $ 1,679 $ 1,475 $ 204 14%
Railway operating ratio 70.4 73.1 2.7 4%
Operating ResultsFirst Half 2012 vs. 2011 ($ Millions)
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Revenue$5.7 Billion, up $177 Million
RPU$1,604, up $36 per unit
Volume3,530,100 units, up 32,000 loads
1H 2011 RPU Volume 1H 2012
$5,486 $5,663$127 $50
1H 2012 Revenue $ in Millions & y-o-y Percent Change
Components of Revenue Growth $ in Millions
Railway Operating RevenueFirst Half 2012 vs. 2011
Merchandise$3,052+11%
Coal$1,521(11%)
Intermodal$1,090+6%
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1H 2012 Volume (000’s) & y-o-y Percent Change
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1H 2011 1H 2012
Coal
Merchandise
Intermodal
+4%
+5%
(12%)
3,498.1 3,530.1Coal down (12%) (19%) decline in Utility 10% gain in Domestic Met(2%) decline in Export
Intermodal up 5% 11% gain in Domestic more than offsets (2%) decline in International
Merchandise up 4%Gains in Automotive, MetCon and Chemicals more than offset declines in Paper and Agriculture
Total volume up 1%
Railway Volume First Half 2012 vs. 2011
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Improving Overall ServiceComposite Service Performance First Half 2012 vs. 2011
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1st Half
74.5%
82.9%20112012
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Train & Engine Service Overtime Reduced 16%
Re-Crews Reduced 33%
Equipment Rents (Velocity Driven) Reduced 9%
Locomotives In Service Reduced 3%
Fuel Consumption Reduced 2%
Gross Ton Miles per Gallon Improved 1%
Improving ProductivityFirst Half 2012 vs. 2011
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Agenda
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• Second Quarter & First Half Results
• Third Quarter-to-Date
• Market Drivers
• Business Outlook
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1,219,500 units, down (1%)
13%
6%
3%
0%
(4%)
(8%)
(14%)
Change in Units3QTD12 vs. 2011
1,230.6 1,219.5
2011 2012
Units (000)
Current Railway VolumeThird Quarter through Week 35 (Sept 1, 2012)
Automotive
Intermodal
Chemicals
Agriculture
Paper
MetCon
Coal
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Agenda
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• Second Quarter & First Half Results
• Third Quarter-to-Date
• Market Drivers
• Business Outlook
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Market Drivers
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• Automotive strength • Sourcing and regulatory changes in coal• Energy exploration and drilling activity• U.S. crop conditions• Consecutive year-over-year growth
in housing starts• Highway conversions for Intermodal
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Continued Strength in Automotive
68101214161820
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8
9
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
US Vehicle Sales (M)
Vehicle Age (yrs.) U.S. Vehicle Age vs. Sales
• Automotive volume up 18% YTD• North American vehicle production
forecasted at 15.4 million units for 2012, up 15% vs. last year
• Average vehicle age at all-time high
Source: Ward’s, Polk15
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NS Coal TonnageYTD 2012 – 99.7M tons
16 Excludes coke & iron ore
Illinois Basin
12.9 M Tons13%
Northern Appalachia26.7 M Tons
27%
Western17.4 M Tons
17%
CentralAppalachia40.4 M Tons
41%SouthernAppalachia2.3 M Tons
2% Norfolk SouthernRailway and its Railroad Operating Subsidiaries
- - - NS Trackage and Haulage Rights
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Marcellus & Utica Shale DepositsNS Shale Volume Up 27% YTD vs. 2011
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Drilling Activity in NS Service RegionYTD Permit and Rig Activity in PA, OH, WV
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
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50
100
150
200
250
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
PermitsActive Rigs
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• New York pending decision to lift moratorium
• Market shift from dry to wet gas
• Natural gas price $2.85 in August
Source: EIA, RigData
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Bakken
Alberta
• Efficient and direct routing to East Coast, Gulf Coast and Midwest refineries
• Unit train staging & delivery
Chicago
Crude Oil to East Coast, Gulf Coast and Midwest Refineries
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Grain Market Sourcing and Service Flexibility
$0$2$4$6$8
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50
100
150
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13
Price ($/bu)Yield (bu/ac)
Crop Year
Corn Yield and Price
Source: NOAA, USDA
• Sourcing from non-traditional origins
• Additional West to East flows
• Imports through East coast ports
• Rationalization in ethanol production
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90 day Precipitation During growing season
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Corridor 2Q 2012 vs. 2011
1H 2012 vs. 2011
Pan Am Southern 3% 9%
Crescent Corridor 22% 22%
Heartland Corridor 27% 23%
Meridian Speedway 14% 12%
Intermodal Corridors
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Harrisburg
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Meridian
To Mexico
Bethlehem
Greencastle
Birmingham
Memphis
AtlantaCharlotte
Harrisburg
To/From West
New Orleans
Terminal Investments
Crescent CorridorSets the Stage for up to 34 New Service Lanes in 2013
Meridian
To/From Mexico
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Terminal Incremental lifts
Total Investment
$M
NS Investment
$M
Targeted Completion
Rossville 200,000 $137.9 $76.0 2012
Birmingham 150,000 $101.5 $42.4 2012
Charlotte 115,000 $90.9 $75.1 2013
Greencastle 150,000 $99.9 $54.9 2012
Rutherford 95,000 $60.9 $45.9 2014
Harrisburg 97,000 $30.1 $10.1 2013
Total 807,000 $521.2 $304.4
New Terminal Capacity on Crescent CorridorNew investment, plus current capacity, will support over 500,000 new revenue moves in Crescent related lanes
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Agenda
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• Second Quarter & First Half Results
• Third Quarter-to-Date
• Market Drivers
• Business Outlook
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CoalUtility coal impacted by higher stockpiles in first half and competition from natural gasModerating strength, but continued growth in the domestic metallurgical market to support steel productionWeaker demand in European market for both met and steam coal Continued opportunities in Asian marketIntermodalIncreasing opportunities for highway conversion - tightening truck capacity New Memphis terminal open July 1Growth with NS international shipping partnersExpansion in premium market segment
MerchandiseProject growth in crude oil and demand for plastics
Moderate growth in materials for natural gas drilling operations
Solid automotive/steel production and new business development projects
Reduced U.S. corn and soybean crop
Business Outlook