DEU FRA CAN # of people (log scale) IND ESP USA BEL · BEL Days since 1 death per million # of...

20,000,000

2,000,000

200,000

20,000

2,000

200

20

Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020

1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and recoveriesTotal confirmed cases and recoveries

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Confirmed

recoveries

Confirmed

cases

# of people (log scale)

10,000

1,000

100

10

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases for selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

CAN

KOR

FRADEU

BELUSA

Days since 1 case per million

ESP# of people (log scale)

IND

mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor



500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

3. Europe: COVID-19 deaths versus South KoreaDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)

SWE

KOR

Days since 1 death per million

GBR

DEU

BEL

FRA

ESP# of people (log scale)

DNK

NOR

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

4. North America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


CAN

KOR

USA

ESP

BEL






5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600


World

NBF Economics and Strategy

000 persons

0.0

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36


Canada


000 persons

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110


Italy


000 persons

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United States


000 persons

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Germany


000 persons

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1.6

1.8

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35


Belgium


000 persons

New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

0.0

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Denmark


000 persons

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South Africa


000 persons

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India


000 persons

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Russia


000 persons

South Korea


000 persons

-.1

.0

.1

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Brazil


000 persons

New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




5,000

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

6. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million


SWE

QC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON


USAESP

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

7. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


SWE

QC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON


USA

ESP




5,000

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

8. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

MEX


CAN

BRA

BELPER# of people (log scale)

CHL

ESP

1,000

100

10

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

9. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

MEX


CANBRA

BEL

PER


CHL

ESP




Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population

March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 Days

China 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03 152.2

Israel 19.9 40.8 4.2 12.9 23.6 83.3

South Africa 0.7 2.4 14.7 37.6 60.2 60.2

Sweden 14.1 55.0 52.5 81.5 109.6 34.5

Switzerland 61.8 50.0 4.8 2.2 2.9 33.1

Japan 0.4 3.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 32.1

Turkey 5.2 42.2 16.7 12.8 16.4 28.6

India 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.6 8.3 26.1

Mexico 0.3 4.7 18.0 28.8 34.2 18.6

Brazil 0.9 12.8 64.9 111.5 123.0 10.3

South Korea 4.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 9.3

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 65.9 70.9 7.6

Portugal 23.5 57.5 23.6 28.1 29.0 3.4

Norway 27.5 19.0 4.2 2.7 2.6 -4.6

Denmark 15.9 36.2 14.0 7.3 6.9 -5.5

Netherlands 23.7 52.0 13.4 9.9 9.3 -6.1

Austria 36.4 19.5 4.6 3.4 3.1 -6.8

Germany 27.6 36.3 7.9 4.3 3.5 -17.8

Spain 66.2 83.8 18.0 9.3 7.3 -20.7

Italy 55.8 54.9 14.7 6.2 4.9 -21.1

United Kingdom 11.9 71.7 49.2 26.8 19.2 -28.5

France 25.7 58.0 9.9 5.9 4.2 -29.5

Belgium 35.6 102.8 27.4 13.1 8.3 -36.6

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 18.8 10.5 -44.3

Finland 8.2 21.5 10.9 4.3 2.0 -54.3

Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE

7 days compared to

28 days (% variation)

10. World, Daily new cases per million population






Saskatchewan 5.0 5.8 7.0 2.2 4.2 91.8

Manitoba 2.4 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 50.0

Alberta 5.0 35.2 12.1 6.4 8.2 27.8

British Columbia 6.3 7.2 2.9 2.15 2.66 23.4

New Brunswick 2.9 2.1 0.6 2.0 2.4 18.2

Ontario 4.3 35.0 26.3 22.3 14.0 -37.0

Quebec 15.7 91.3 88.8 39.7 15.4 -61.1

Newfoundland 9.4 6.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -100.0

Nova Scotia 4.9 27.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 -100.0

Prince Edward Island 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 18.8 10.5 -44.3


7 days compared to


11. Canada, Daily new cases per million population

¸

12. United States, Daily new cases per million population, selected cities



Miami-Dade 25.2 122.0 70.5 95.2 157.5 65.5

Los Angeles 9.7 67.1 102.1 129.4 144.4 11.6

King County (Seattle) 33.3 57.4 27.0 20.3 22.6 11.0

San Francisco 14.5 41.7 39.8 32.3 28.0 -13.2

New York City 71.5 213.1 59.4 30.1 20.7 -31.1

Philadelphia 26.8 276.8 166.2 96.9 63.5 -34.5

Hennepin County (Minneapolis) 5.2 40.4 169.6 129.1 83.6 -35.2

Cook County (Chicago) 28.1 207.2 259.4 136.2 63.0 -53.7

Houston 0.0 7.3 153.1 104.2 -31.1 -129.9

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 65.9 70.9 7.6


7 days compared to 28

days (% variation)




13. United States, Daily new cases per million population


March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysHawaii 4.6 9.7 0.8 2.5 6.0 133.7Oregon 5.3 14.4 13.3 20.5 39.2 91.6Montana 6.0 8.0 1.9 5.1 9.2 81.6Florida 10.1 41.8 33.5 58.6 102.1 74.2Arizona 5.7 29.2 54.4 127.7 217.6 70.3South Carolina 6.8 32.4 36.1 78.9 133.1 68.6Oklahoma 4.6 25.7 22.8 30.4 51.3 68.6Wyoming 6.1 25.9 19.2 20.2 33.1 63.9Arkansas 5.6 30.5 42.5 101.8 153.3 50.6Alabama 6.5 41.5 71.5 103.9 155.1 49.3Texas 4.2 28.6 40.0 56.7 83.4 47.1Nevada 11.7 42.6 37.4 51.8 75.9 46.5Alaska 0.8 1.7 0.7 14.4 20.1 40.1Louisiana 36.3 163.1 82.5 102.3 141.5 38.3Idaho 9.3 27.4 15.4 22.5 29.7 32.1Utah 8.8 39.5 51.6 85.0 110.5 29.9North Carolina 4.7 29.3 55.4 90.8 115.2 26.9Washington 23.0 38.9 31.2 36.6 45.6 24.4Tennessee 11.3 40.7 55.8 71.7 87.5 22.1California 6.7 35.4 50.5 69.4 83.5 20.2Georgia 11.9 70.0 63.1 68.0 81.4 19.6Kansas 4.8 45.5 58.5 38.5 43.8 14.0Mississippi 10.2 65.8 94.4 104.1 103.6 -0.5Missouri 6.5 32.7 26.1 31.7 30.7 -3.1South Dakota 3.9 88.2 92.8 75.6 72.0 -4.8Kentucky 4.5 30.4 36.1 38.6 35.6 -7.9Indiana 10.3 77.5 79.9 62.3 56.8 -8.8West Virginia 2.9 17.9 15.9 16.1 14.5 -10.0Ohio 6.1 45.1 48.3 39.7 34.8 -12.3New Mexico 4.8 49.2 65.8 63.8 55.5 -13.0North Dakota 5.2 41.3 63.9 50.2 42.2 -16.0Iowa 5.1 70.2 126.9 100.1 83.0 -17.0Maine 7.3 19.6 29.5 27.0 21.1 -21.7Nebraska 2.9 70.8 163.8 112.8 86.6 -23.2Vermont 15.1 30.6 5.9 10.6 8.0 -24.7Wisconsin 7.8 31.2 64.0 61.6 45.7 -25.8Pennsylviana 12.5 112.0 70.9 45.1 33.2 -26.4Minnesota 3.5 26.6 112.7 86.3 61.5 -28.8Delaware 10.6 151.1 157.8 82.5 56.9 -31.0Connecticut 16.6 71.3 62.1 42.5 29.1 -31.7Maryland 8.9 110.7 165.6 122.0 82.8 -32.1Colorado 28.3 229.7 131.2 64.2 43.4 -32.5New Hampshire 8.5 43.9 59.4 41.2 27.1 -34.2New York 125.7 391.6 110.1 56.5 36.6 -35.2Rhode Island 14.9 255.9 192.1 96.3 61.6 -36.0Virginia 5.3 60.0 108.7 99.1 63.3 -36.1Michigan 24.6 107.6 43.5 32.8 18.8 -42.7New Jersey 67.9 375.1 151.8 68.1 37.9 -44.3Massachusetts 30.9 268.7 162.6 75.1 41.3 -45.0Illinois 15.2 123.3 171.2 95.2 49.0 -48.5United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 65.9 70.9 7.6


7 days compared to





-10

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

14. New York City: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: June 7 to 13)

Weekly deaths per 100 000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented

During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)

COVID-19

1918 pandemic

# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020

Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in

1918, line represent start of measures in 2020

32.3

46.9

16.1

4.7

23.1

64.0

8.5

4.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths

15. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths

NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)

18.6

39.7

25.8

16.0

0.022.5

16.8

80.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths

Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of June 6)

% %

AgeAge




-100

-90

-80

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-60

-50

-40

-30

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-10

0

Montreal Paris Madrid Rome Stockholm Berlin Miami New York Tokyo

Worst week Current

16. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019, 7 day moving average (last obs.: June 8-14)

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)

Percentage points

-110

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020

17. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: June 15)

y/y change

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)

CAN

USA

GBR

DEU

Global




-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


18. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

% change from baseline*

SWE

USA

CANITA

GBR

FRA

ESP

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


19. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

% change from baseline*

CA

AB

QCBC

ON




-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

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4.5

5.0

5.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index

Stdev

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Lehman bankruptcy

and AIG bailout

U.S. government

credit downgrade

and Eurozone

crisis

Fear of Chinese

recession and

petrol supply

shock

COVID-19

outbreak and

OPEC/Russia oil

price war

NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada

Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the

S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.

Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,

minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian

government bond yield.

S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.

USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.

BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Variables Estimation




DEU FRA CAN # of people (log scale) IND ESP USA BEL · BEL Days since 1 death per million # of...

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