detroitMeteorology 415 – Fall 2012

Second Forecast Review

detroitPopulation (2010)[2][3]

• City 713,777

• Rank 18th in U.S.

• Density 5,142/sq mi (1,985/km2)

• Urban 3,863,924

• Metro 4,296,250

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detroit - OBS

• KDET 052353Z 19004KT 10SM CLR 24/20 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP092 60000 T02440200 10261 20244 53004=

• KDET 060053Z 17004KT 10SM CLR 24/21 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP094 T02390206=

• KDET 060153Z 19004KT 10SM CLR 23/21 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP093 T02330206=

• KDET 060253Z 18003KT 10SM CLR 22/21 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T02220206 58001=

• KDET 060353Z 25003KT 8SM CLR 22/21 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP092 T02220206=

• KDET 060453Z 24004KT 8SM CLR 22/20 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP094 T02220200 402670189=

• KDET 060553Z 26003KT 10SM CLR 22/20 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP098 T02170200 10244 20217 53007=

• KDET 060653Z 27003KT 10SM CLR 21/19 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP101 T02110194=

• KDET 060753Z 28003KT 10SM SCT095 21/19 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP104 T02110194=

• KDET 060853Z 32004KT 10SM BKN100 21/19 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP106 T02110189 51008=

• KDET 060953Z 35007KT 10SM FEW070 BKN095 21/18 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP107 T02060178=

Detroit – surface map

detroit - satellite

detroit -radar

detroit - radar

detroit - verifications

detroit – lessons learned

• Look at the data! Observations do not lie

• For a short fuse forecast – only so much can develop in a 10 hour period.

• Continuity of features can be better than mesoscale models

• Convection is unlikely to develop at night if there is no distinct trigger mechanism.

detroit scores