DETERRENCEPresented By

Sheikh Abir AhmedBIR-16Sec:B

Deterrence• Don’t do this ( Restriction)• Punishment & Pay the Cost• Giving threat to other not to attack me, if they do so then they would

be punished • Aims to persuade the opponent not to initiate action• A psychological phenomena • No physical involvement rather psychological threat

RAM• Rational Actor Model• People are rational• complex concept with different meanings to different people• Everyone is rational on their on way of thinking

Some Key thinkers• Bernard Brodie• Henry Kissinger• Thomas Schelling• Herman Kahn• Albert Wohlstetter

Prerequisite of Successful Deterrence

Communication

CapabilityCredibility

Types of Deterrence

Active or Extended

Deterrence

Passive Deterrence

MUSHROOM CLOUD

TriadIf 2 delivery system damaged, one will be still there to destroy1. Strategic Air Command2. ICBM3. SLBM

Some Other Launching system• SRBM• MRBM• IRBM• ABM

Success or Failure of Deterrence?

Massive retaliation• All or nothing but a strategy• Used threat to nuke for the 1st time• Taken by EisenHower administration• this speech delivered by John Foster Dulles• Here also Crediblity missing

Doctrine of Flexible Response(DFR)• U.S defense strategy• Taken by JFK adminstration• The term ‘flexible response’ first appeared in U.S. General Maxwell D. Taylor’s book

The Uncertain Trumpet (1960)• Alternative to President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s New Look national security policy• Intra war deterrence introduced• Tactical nuclear weapon can be used in time of war

• For further reading http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/history/cold-war/strategy/strategy-flexible-response.htm

Cont.• Emerge new term. “ Mutual Vulnerability”• Signed ABM treaty in 1960s• Mutual Assured Destruction(MAD)• Failed. As it also couldn’t ensure Credibility

Cont.• Robert McNamar’s idea : attack USSR & killed 30% civilian, destroy

75% industrial capability it also failed because of the lack of Credibility

• James R. Schlesinger: Sclesinger’s Doctrine (NSDM-242)oCounter value targetingoCounter force targetingThis idea was Credible.

Cont.• “Counter Vailing Strategy” by Harold Brown• Also known as Decapitation• Means assassination of the leader of opponent.

For more about this topic• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zui89Uag1xw• http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/histo

ry/cold-war/strategy/strategy-massive%20retaliation.htm• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgYI50PLVm8