Determining Microcystis bloom trigger points in the Maumee and Sandusky ecosystems
description
Transcript of Determining Microcystis bloom trigger points in the Maumee and Sandusky ecosystems
Determining Microcystis bloom trigger points in the Maumee and Sandusky ecosystems
Joe Conroy1,2, Darren Bade3, Bill Edwards4, Doug Kane5, Theo Gover1, Kyla Hershey1, and David Culver1
1 – Dept. of EEOB, The Ohio State University, 2 – Current affiliation: Inland Fisheries Research Unit, DOW, ODNR, 3 – Dept. of Biol. Sci., Kent State University, 4 – Dept. of Biology, Niagara University, 5 – Nat. Sci. and Math. Division, Defiance College
Problem: Where & When do blooms start?
TimeTime
Sp
ace
Sp
ace
Late summerLate summerEarly springEarly spring
LakeLake
BaysBays
RiversRivers
TribsTribs
????
?? ?? ??
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part IPart I: Determining bloom trigger points: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Methods: Sampling locations
Methods: Sampling locations
Methods: Data Collection
Methods: Data Collection
Field SamplingField Sampling
Methods: Data Collection
Field SamplingField Sampling
Laboratory AnalysisLaboratory Analysis
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part IPart I: Determining bloom trigger points: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Results: quantifying Microcystis Microcystis abundanceabundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
1970 cyanobacterial biomass = 1 g m-3
April tributary Microcystis biomass = 0.00–0.85 g m-3
Only four samples without Microcystis!
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part IIPart II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactionsMethods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Transient social-ecological stability: the effects of invasive species and ecosystem restoration on nutrient management compromise in Lake Erie
Eric Roy1,2, Jay Martin1, Elena Irwin3, Joe Conroy4,5, and David Culver4
1 – Dept. of FABE, The Ohio State University, 2 – Current affiliation: Dept. of Oceanogr. & Coastal Sci., Louisiana State University, 3 – Dept. of Agr., Env., & Devel. Econ., The Ohio State University, 4 – Dept. of EEOB, The Ohio State University, 5 – Current affiliation: Inland Fisheries Research Unit, DOW, ODNR
Published in: Ecology & Society 15(1): article 20 2010.http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss1/art20/
Methods: Modeling interactions
Methods: Modeling interactions
Ecological ModelEcological Model Social ModelSocial Model
Methods: Manipulations
Model calibrated & validated for Sandusky Bay» Few dreissenid mussels in Sandusky Bay» Large historical wetland at river-bay confluence
1. Simulated expansion of dreissenids into the bay» Consumptive effect ( phytoplankton, clarity = benefits)
– Set MCF (Mussel Consumption Factor = 1.25)» Excretory effect ( PP, clarity = benefits)
– Set MEF (Mussel Excretory Factor > 1.00)
2. Simulated wetland restoration» Mitigating effect ( P-load, PP, clarity = benefits)
– Reduce P-load 12%
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part IIPart II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexityResults: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time ML, Be, Bp
MEF, Benefits
Add wetlands, Benefits
Compromise reached over 50 y
Social-ecological feedbacks
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Where & When do blooms start?
Microcystis present in 0.3-m deep, 1st-order streams» Biomass in main-stem rivers, bays, and the open lake
Microcystis occurs by late April (at least)
Microcystis abundant through October (at least)
Current Microcystis biomass = 1970’s Cyanobacteria
Where & When do blooms start?
Where & When do blooms start?
TimeTime
Sp
ace
Sp
ace
Late summerLate summerEarly springEarly spring
LakeLake
BaysBays
RiversRivers
TribsTribs
????
?? ?? ??
Solving the Microcystis problem
People-ecosystem interactions important! Interactions between user groups also important
Ecological ModelEcological Model Social ModelSocial Model
Acknowledgements
Key personnel: » OSU: Amanda Martyn» KSU: Curtis Clevinger, Heather Kirkpatrick, Moumita Moitra» NU: Ashley Bantelman
Funding sources:» Ohio Lake Erie Protection Fund» Ohio Sea Grant College Program
Questions?Questions?