Detecting and Countering Civil Disturbances in Areas of EU- and NATO-led Operations

CIOR Study

Photo: NATO

Breaking the Circle of Violence

Civil Disturbances are a Challenge

Afghanistan May 2006Kosovo March 2004

Kosovo February 2007

• Using scientific competence

• Transfer of academic knowledge

• Provide vital information

CIOR Study: Objectives

→ To use the full potential of reserve officers

Results

• Concept to detect

civil disturbances

• Enabling forces

abroad to undertake

counter measures

Concept

Post-conflict situation after civil war– Special culture of violence– Great amount of small and light

weapons

1. Structural Conduciveness– Structure of responsibility– Public communication– Locations of groups– Control of public space– Access to small arms by the

population

2. Structural Strain– Disadvantages for one or several

groups– Internal fights for supremacy– Alterations in international

relations

3. Specific generalized belief– Structural approach to law – Temporary advantages for one or

several groups– Groups hold high relational and cultural

distance– Groups are functionally independent– No sanctions for taking matters in their

own hands4. A Precipitating Event

– Combination of events can lead to escalation

5. Mobilization for action– Demonstrations

6. Effect of social control– Security organizations– Political leadership– Informal actors

Examples

Who is made responsible?

! !

Is there public communication?

Where are different (ethnic) groups located?

! !

Does the police control public space?

Does the population have access to small arms?

YES YES

Early Warning

AOR: Priština et al. AOR: Kabul et al.

→ Civil disturbances are likely to occur

Observe Tensions

• Are there disadvantages for one or several (ethnic) groups?

• What about internal fights for supremacy?

• Are there alterations in international relations?

Conclusion

• Information on changes from the tactical level and

• Tensions must be observed

→ Office of the Political

Adviser including

reserve officers

“NO NEGOTIATIONS

12:44

TIME‘S UP

UNMIK GO HOME!”

CIOR STUDY

Responsible: Oberleutnant d. R. Dipl.-Pol. Max Bornefeld-EttmannOberst d. R. Prof. Dr. Reiner PommerinDresden, University of Technology

• Providing tools to prevent conflict escalation

• Intellectual support to forces abroad

• Basis for new SOPs