DET Module 5 Products and Display
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Transcript of DET Module 5 Products and Display
DET Module 5Products and DisplayTara Jensen 1 and Paula McCaslin 2
1 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 2 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO
Acknowledgements: HWT Spring Experiment Participants, HMT West Participants, CAPS SSEF Team, NOAA/ESRL HFIP Team, NOAA/ESRL LAPS Team, NOAA/ESRL ALPS Development Team, and others
MotivationGrowing demand for easy-to-
interpret ensemble products available to the end-user
Well constructed products allow more valuable evaluation of ensemble skill
Community needs means to explore and test product generation methods and display capabilities
Products Module GoalsModule should provide the ability
to specify techniques for◦Deriving information from the
ensemble◦Generating probabilistic products◦Providing decision support services◦And more…
Two areas:◦Product Generation◦Display Capabilities
Where Products Module Fits
Initial and Physics Pert.
Modules
Statistical PP Modules
Module 5:Products
Verification Module
Generation
Display
External Input(HMT, HWT, HFIP,
etc)
Pre-generated ProductsDET will leverage its collaborations* to gather algorithms for baseline pre-generated products *(with NCEP, ESRL, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, NSSL, SPC, HPC, OHD and others)
Deterministic-style Products◦Simple mean, spread◦Weighted Mean◦Bias Corrected mean◦Probability Matching◦Maximum member
Probability Products ◦Simple Ensemble Frequency◦Neighborhood Smoothed Ensemble
Frequency
Courtesy of Tara JensenWeb Display
DisplaysDET will also use its collaborations to gather algorithms and concepts for baseline displays
Spaghetti Plots Postage StampsTime SeriesSoundingsVerification Plots
Courtesy of: Steve Weiss and Adam ClarkHWT Spring Experiment 2010(NAWIPS system)
Plot: One type of spaghetti (Simulated Radar Reflectivity)
Use: Determine potentialenvelope of storm path
Some Additional Display Options
Courtesy of: ALPS Development Team
Courtesy of: Paula McCaslinCourtesy of: Huiling Yuan& IsidoraJankov
Operational Display SystemsAWIPS for NWS/WFOs◦ Regional scale◦ Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II
N-AWIPS for NWS/Forecast Centers◦ CONUS scale◦ Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II ◦ Ensemble Display capability using stored procedures
CHPS for OHD and RFCs◦ CONUS scale◦ In Operational Testing◦ Ensemble Display capability
Operational Display Systems
AWIPS-II (Both Regional and National Scales)◦The future platform◦First phase to provide current
functionality (based on OB9) migrated to new architecture New Architecture: Service Oriented
Architecture Based on Java, Javascript, XML, *Note: Python
may be used Interaction with GFE Google Map zoom capability
◦Second phase will include extensions to new capability, including new display methods for ensemble data
Research Display Systems• ALPS (Developed at NOAA/ESRL/GSD)
• Based on AWIPS• Plans to transition functionality to
AWIPS-II research workstation• Dynamic calculation of standard
ensemble values like mean, max, spread• Spaghetti Plots with dynamic mean and
spread calculation• Color coding to support analysis of model
core clustering
Examples Research Display Systems
• Universities• University of Washington (UWME and UW EnKF)• Penn State (MREF)• OU CAPS (SSEF) etc…
• Government Labs• 3D method based on VIS5D (NCEP)• Human Derived Risk Forecasts (e.g. SPC)• Descision Support Probability Plots (FNMOC/AFWA)• Hurricane Track and Intensity Probabilities (e.g.
NHC, GFDL, and ESRL/GSD) etc…
Many are web-based displays ofPostage Stamps, Mean-Spread, Probability Fields
Web-based Display Systems
Facilitates interactive information, interoperability, user-centered designs, and collaboration
Researchers and Forecasters can evaluate products/displays without having an instance of the current workstation
Examples:◦ NOAA/NWS Doppler RIDGE (Radar Integrated Display
with Geospatial Elements) using Open Layers (http://radar.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2)
◦ UKMO's popular Weather Map using Google Maps Layers (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/)
◦ ESRL Display for tropical cyclone prediction using Google Maps and JavaScript (http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks)
Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin
Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin
Example:ESRL Interactive Display for Ensemble Model Tropical Forecasts
BenchmarkUltimately - AWIPS II systemWhile AWIPS II is being
developed, proxy benchmarks to consider:◦NAWIPS◦ALPS◦NOAA Open Layers Web Solution
System RequirementsInput data:
◦ Standard model output formats◦ NetCDF◦ GRIB1 and 2
Output data: ◦ AWIPS-II NetCDF◦ CF-Compliant NetCDF (if different from
AWIPS-II NetCDF)◦ GRIB 1 and 2
Proposed Languages: ◦ Products: Python, Fortran77 and 90, C, C+
+ ◦ Display: Python, JavaScript, Java
Major TasksDetermine framework and optimal
languages for modularity and plug-compatibility with N-AWIPS and AWIPS-II
Develop generalized framework for:1. Product Generation2. Display
Test system using methods already developed
Evaluate alternative methodsSet up procedures tech transfer to
operational centers (i.e. NCEP, AFWA, NWS Offices and Centers, etc…).
Year 1-4 Module Goals1)Evaluate ensemble products for scientific
integrity and human impact.2)Develop interface to allow model output to
plug into decision support products.3)Develop interface to allow model output to
plug into operational platforms including NAWIPS and AWIPS II.
4)Evaluate methods for determining probability of occurrence at grid point (i.e. straight calculation, weighted calculation, applying a smoothing filter before or after, downscaling or upscaling probability).
5)Explore ways to make spaghetti plots more meaningful.
Tentative TimelineYear 1 – Planning and Initial
Investigation ◦Workshop feedback◦DTC collaborations with HMT, HWT,
HFIP, other◦Web / Literature Search
Year 2 – System Development and Testing
Year 3 – System Implemented◦Available for first extensive tests◦Planning for extension of capability
Year 4 – R2O discussions with NCEP, NWS, AFWA, etc…
Questions for Working GroupWhich product generation and display
methods show greatest promise?
Should we only be gearing toward AWIPS II or should we think beyond that to web-based displays for the research community?
At what point and how should we include social scientists in this portion of the testbed?