Designing the Afghan constitution

Case-study

Class Structure

1. Key discussion questions

2. Lijphart’s theory & his critics

3. Case-study briefing: Afghan society

4. The Afghan constitution and electoral system

5. Discussion: pros and cons

1. Key Questions

You have been asked to advise the Afghan government about the major constitutional options and their possible consequences.

1. Presidential or parliamentary executive?2. Division of powers between central state and

provinces/districts?3. Majoritarian or proportional electoral system?4. Role of religion and the state?5. Representation and rights of ethnic groups and women?

– What does the new constitution specify?– Why were these arrangements chosen?– In the light of Lijphart’s theory, what are the possible

consequences of these choices?– What alternatives would you advise?

2. Lijphart’s thesis

Lijphart: Consensus democracy is best for plural societies

“In the most deeply divided societies, like Northern Ireland, majority rule spells majority dictatorship and civil strife rather than democracy. What such societies need is a democratic regime that emphasizes consensus instead of opposition, that includes rather than excludes, and that tries to maximize the size of the ruling majority instead of being satisfied with a bare majority.”

Ref: Arend Lijphart Patterns of Democracy 1999

‘Majoritarian’ Model

Effective and accountable

‘Consensus’ Model

Inclusive and representative

Exec-Parties One-party cabinet (?) Coalition (?)

Parliament Executive dominant (?) Balanced exec-legis.(?)

Party system Two-party Multi-party

Electoral system Majoritarian PR

Interest groups Pluralist Corporatist

Federal-Unitary

Government Centralized-unitary (?) Decentralized-federal (?)

Parliament Unicameral Balanced Bicameral

Constitution Flexible More Rigid

Judiciary Parlt. sovereign Judicial review

Central Bank Dependent Independent

Critics of consensus democracy

Donald Horowitz Ethnic Groups in Conflict (1985)

Power-sharing regimes reflecting each ethnic group may freeze and heighten ethnic divisions

Majoritarian (Alternative Vote) systems have incentives for candidates to make inter-ethnic (‘bridging’) appeals

3.Afghan context: basic briefing

Estimated total pop. 28.5 m (10.5m registered voters?) Ethnic groups:

Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, Baloch 2%, other 4%

Religion: Sunni Muslim 80%, Shi'a Muslim 19%, other 1%

Languages: Pashtu (official) 35%, Afghan Persian (Dari) 50%, Turkic

languages (primarily Uzbek and Turkmen) 11%, 30 minor languages (primarily Balochi and Pashai) 4%, much bilingualism

Literacy: 51% male, 21% female

What are the main political challenges facing Afghanistan?

Barney Rubin: Institutions must also take into account realities of Afghanistan, including:

The need for national reconciliation and problems of security after violent conflict;

The strength of regional, ethnic, and sectarian loyalties in different regions, few are homogeneous;

The desire of the population for a uniform administration based on legal rights, rather than arbitrary rule by the gun;

The weakness of the administration; The lack of a census, intense controversy over size of regional populations

and ethnic groups; The scattered distribution of the population, poor transport and

communications; Low levels of literacy and numeracy; Respect for elders, religious figures, and other local leaders; and The weakness of political parties. Historical traditions: a monarchy and unitary state

Ethnic composition

4. New Afghan Constitution

Presidential elections

2nd ballot majoritarian (like France)50% or more of the valid votes in 1st

roundOr a runoff election among top two

candidates two weeks later5 year term

Presidential election 9th Oct 2004

18 candidates, inc. Hamid Karzai (Pashtun) Younis Qanuni (Tajik) Ismail Kahn (Tajik) Abdul Rashid Dostum

(Uzbek) Masooda Jalal 75% turnout Karzai 55.4% vote

Turnout - 41% Female, 59% Male

Turnout by Gender

18:25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Presidential executive

Qualifications of presidential candidates Afghan citizen, Muslim and born of Afghan parents Age (40+) No criminal convictions

Term limitations: maximum of two terms Impeachment:

Vote by 2/3rd of Loya Jirga can dismiss president Duties:

Implement constitution Determine policies of state Commander-in-Chief of armed forces Appoints ministers and 9-member supreme court (subject to approval

by Wolesi Jirga) Veto on legislation

Legislative bodies

Loya JirgaMembers of the National AssemblyChairs of provincial and district councilsCan amend constitution by majority vote

National AssemblyWolesi Jirga (elected House of the People)Meshrano Jirga (appointed House of

Elders)Elections 18th September 2005

Wolesi Jirga (lower house)

Single Non-Transferable Vote electoral system: Multimember constituencies and simple plurality elections Election through free, general, secret and direct elections for

5 year term 249 seats allocated among the provinces in proportion

to their population Tot. pop 28m/249=seat allocation quota, with the

exception that all provinces must have at least two seats

One member per 112,450 electors Parties may nominate a list of candidates in each

province up to the total number of seats The candidates with the most votes will be awarded

seats in each province

Women’s representation

The constitution stipulates that the number of female representatives in the Wolesi Jirga must be at least twice the number of provinces (2*32=64/249=25%).

The election commission sets the minimum female quota per province.

The female candidate with the most votes in each constituency will be elected until the minimum quota for female candidates in each province is met

Other women can then be elected based on their share of the vote

In total, 582 women candidates stood (10%) Yet major HR abuses of women continue

Elections 18th September 2005

8,500 candidates for Wolesi Jirga & provincial councils

69 ballot papers – in Kabul, 390 names on 7 pages

26,000 men or women-only ballot stations w. 200,000 staff – cost $149m

300 excluded due to fraudLower turnout (est. 75%>55%?)

Problems

68% of votes went to losing candidatesUnwieldy ballot choices (400 names in

Kabul)Unequal votes (top elected member got

50,000 more votes than the lowest)No party cues allowedIssues of campaign funding

Meshrano Jirga (upper house)

96 membersOne third each appointed by

Provisional councils (Using majoritarian 2nd ballot elections)

District councils (Using majoritarian 2nd ballot elections)

The presidentNominated by civic society, parties, & public

Electoral reform

Afghan Electoral CommissionCivil and voter registryDraft law proposes Proportional

Combined/Mixed system for lower hse80 seats PR159 SNTV (inc 68 for women, 10 nomads)

Consequences for…

Effective governanceSecurity and stabilityNational unity and reconciliationInclusivenessLegitimacy (internal, external)Local participationEqualityTransparency/simplicity

4. Discussion

You have been asked to advise the Afghan government about the major constitutional options and their possible consequences.

1. Presidential or parliamentary executive?2. Division of powers between central state and

provinces/districts?3. Majoritarian or proportional electoral system?4. Role of religion and the state?5. Representation and rights of ethnic groups and women?

What does the new constitution propose? In the light of Lijphart’s theory, what are the possible

consequences of these choices?

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