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Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of

Complex SystemsHenk Roodt

NZ Institute of Healthcare Engineering - 2012

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Overview

FRAMEWORKS and MODELS?

Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic

Socio-Technical Systems are Complex

Design Frameworks to Cope with Complexity

Examples

Concluding Remarks

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Framework

Structure that underlies or support a system or a concept

Used for clarification and organisation

Highlights relationships between ideas, principles and rules

A collection of tools, metrics, processes that can be applied to a problem

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Model

A representation of reality*

A model is a representation of the appropriately selected characteristics of

a process or an entity**

To model a phenomenon is to construct a formal theory that describes and

explains it *Ackoff – 1968**Roodt - 2007

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Frameworks are related to Models

Frameworks

Construct

Models

Understand

Frameworks & models can help us to discover solutions to problems we face.

Both are core to design/systems engineering.

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Engineering is about Real Solutions

We do not like snake oil We appreciate templates

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Reminder from the French

If things were simple, word would have gotten round.

Jacques Derrida

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A Welsh Perspective

Cynefin Framework – Dave SnowdenCause and effect emerges, no right answer

Key: Patterns emergeProbe – Sense - Respond

Experts know thegood answers

Key: FactsSense - Analyse - Respond

Policy, process, rules, right answers (Best practice)

Things just happen

Key: High turbulanceAct - Sense - Respond

Catastrophic Breakdown

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Modern World – Socio-Technical

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Approach Philosophy

• Classic reductionism cannot work in a complex environment– The sum is greater than the parts (emergence)– Truncation/boundary setting problematic– Systems learn and adapt – no fixed target to try and resolve

• Use approaches that allow you to:– Probe– Sense– Respond

• Cascade the problem through successive analysis/synthesis loops to identify focus

• Relax – there will not be one right answer, only better and worse ones

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0: Solutions must fit User Requirements

Shortfall

Solution Definition

Solution Establishment

Solution Specification

Soluton Employment

OperationalEffectiveness

(OE)

RequiredOperationalCapability

(ROC)

FunctionalBaseline

(FBL)

OperatingBaseline

(OBL)

User Domain Solution Provider Domain

δ

Solution Life Cycle

Lifecycle framework from Oosthuizen and Roodt (2006)

Definition and design have long term impact

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1: Addressing the Need/Shortfall

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2: Model-based Engineering

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3: Cascading over Cynefin

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4: Qualitative Descriptions

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5: Develop Conceptual Functional Solutions

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6: V – Build it

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Summary Cascade

Grasp hierarchy of interactions• favour possibility above

probability (and thus allow for emergence)

• favour co-existence (consistency) above causality

• it must be able to rise above temporal truncation or bracketing (as complex systems are constantly evolving)

• embrace hierarchical relationships to allow for evolutionary development

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Cascade Qualitative

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Cascade Quantitative

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Brief Examples

• Developing a new military capability• Design of a new hospital facility • Frameworks for business

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Military

Need: Minimum Electronic Warfare Capability to deal with local and regional operations

CASCADE: Scenarios, Capabilities, Causalities

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Military

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Military

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Military

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Military

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Medical

Need (Hypothetical): PET facility for the SDHBCASCADE the socio-technical problemStage gate• Morphological Analysis of need

– Resources, societal needs, national situation, etc.• SOA synthesis• Pattern language design of facility• Agent based flow modelOutput:Development of final specification and project charter

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Medical

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Business

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Conclusion

• Design Engineering is often overlooked as a core process. • It is user-focussed if properly done.• It generates traceable output• It reduces risk significantly by surfacing issues when we

can still do something about it – at the start.• It has been shown that the design cycle may take only

20% of the full project time, but it impacts more than 80% of the total expenditure.

• Coupled to model based engineering, it allows try-before-buy and on-the-fly life cycle management.

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Questions

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