Denver Residential Real Estate Annual Report

Denver Residential Real Estate Annual Report

Highlights of 2014 & Predictions of 2015

The Denver 100 | Den100.com


EXPERIENCE IS NOT EXPENSIVE, ITS PRICELESS.

proudly presented by:

JACK O’CONNOR, CRB BROKER ASSOCIATE

[email protected]

www.Den100.com

Who is The Denver 100?The Denver 100 is a locally owned and operated independent real estate company that has developed into an innovative, creative and recognizable force in Colorado real estate circles. The boutique broker centric service model of this company was designed with the consumer in mind. The Denver 100 has been built through the eyes of producing real estate professionals to service high value clients throughout the Denver Metro Area.

• Experience and skills are key components to fulfill the consumer needs in the purchase or sale of their homes.

• The Denver 100 proudly boasts that the average broker experience in our company is 12.5 years of real estate experience per broker.

The Average Broker Associate at The Denver 100 completes 3 times as many transactions per year than the average Denver real estate agent.

IT’S ALWAYS ABOUT THE PEOPLE

• The Denver 100, LLC is a Colorado limited liability company delivering real estate brokerage expertise and consulting in the Denver metro area.

• Our company is led by Jack O’Connor, CRB, Broker/Owner and he offers extraordinary experience, consulting and consumer services for the real estate industry with 30+ years of Denver real estate experience with thousands of transactions closed.

• Our commitment is to help our brokers be the best in today’s market through knowledge and wisdom of the trends.

• The Denver 100 put the needs of our buyers and sellers first and foremost in in their real estate transactions. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve your real estate needs.

THE DENVER 100 STAFF

• Our Office Administrator keeps all compliance rules and Broker Associate contracts up to date and accurate.

• The marketing talents of Madison Taylor Marketing bring unmatched creativity and design to get maximum exposure for your listed home through print, electronic and social media coordination.

• The Exclusive Thirty Day Listing Launch to sell Homes Faster, Online Showing Services for maximum exposure for our listings, Electronic Contracting, Enhanced Realtor.com features, Social Media Properties Showcase, The Denver 100 Exclusive Buyers Guide and YouTube Channel are just a few of our Enhanced Services.


Dear Friends of The Denver 100:The Denver 100 provides this Annual Real Estate Report as a service to our clientele to give the current trends in the Denver residential real estate market and a resource to predict the future housing direction in our marketplace.

Residential Real Estate Report

DENVER METRO AREA SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING• 56,407 single family and condominiums sold in 2014 compared to 55,741 that sold in

2013 or a 1% increase in the number of homes closed.

• At Year End 2014 there were 5352 active single family homes for sale compared to the beginning of 2014 which had 7347 a decrease of 27% increase in inventory over last year.

• The average price of a single family home in the Denver Metro Area ending 2014 is $360,335 compared to $332,663 ending 2013 year, which is a 8% increase in price for the mix of properties sold. By comparison, 2006 had a single family average price in Denver of $317,112.

• The average days on the market for 2014 is 35 compared to 48 one year ago.

• The selling price obtained compared to List price is 99.2%. What this means is that buyers were willing to pay full price or more to buy a home in 2014.

• The absorption rate for single family homes in the Denver Metro Area with 2014 year-end inventories is 1.14 months. As the inventory decreases so does the absorption rate. This inventory month supply will rise during the spring and summer seasons.

• The $250,000 to $500,000 price range had the most single family home sales with 23,135 homes closed in 2014 creating an absorption rate of 24 days of inventory. Below 6 months of inventory typically indicates prices will increase.

• Conversely the $1 million and above price range had a total of 1045 homes closed in 2014 creating a current absorption rate of 8.12 months of supply. This is a decrease of 20% from 12 months ago, but still a higher supply of homes to stabilize prices.


Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date. Residential Listings Only – Single-Family and Condo.

Key Metrics Historical Sparklines 12-2013 12-2014 + / –Last Year

YTDThis Year

YTD+ / –

--Active Listings 7,347 5,352 - 27.2% --

3,886 3,983 + 2.5% 55,741

--

+ 4.6%

- 1.7%

70,612

65,714

56,407 + 1.2%

67,508

66,872

Under Contract Listings 3,515 + 5.4%

2,427 2,450 + 0.9%New Listings

Sold Listings

3,334

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

4855 39

+ 6.3%

$251,700 $285,250

All data from REcolorado®. REcolorado® is a registered trademark of REcolorado © 2014 REcolorado. All rights reserved. | Powered by 10K.Due to differences in statistical methodologies, figures may vary from other market reports provided by REcolorado®. | 2

+ 13.3% $254,000 $274,900

+ 0.2%+ 0.6% 99.0% 99.2%

$339,636 + 11.1%

98.9%Percent of Sold Priceto List Price*

$305,775

Median Sold Price*

98.3%

$305,048 $324,282

, , ,

35 - 26.8%

,

* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance.

Total Days on Market - 28.7%

g

Average Sold Price*

+ 8.2%

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

12-2011 12-2012 12-2013 12-2014

Active Listings The number of homes that were in "active" status at the end of the month.

8,2637,347

5,352

December

-27.2%-11.1%

All data from REcolorado®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. Due to differences in statistical methodologies, figures may vary from other market reports provided by REcolorado®. | Click for Cover | 3

2012 2013 2014

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Active Listing Count


Under Contract Listings A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.

3,0373,334

3,515

December

55,156

67,508 70,612

Year To Date (YTD)

+4.6%+9.8% +5.4% +22.4%


Note: The method used to calculate the "Under Contract" metric was updated in August 2012 so comparisons to previously reported figures may differ.

2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Under Contract Count


New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

2,5842,427 2,450

December

59,14666,872 65,714

Year To Date (YTD)

-1.7%-6.1% +0.9% +13.1%


2012 2013 2014

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical New Listing Activity

2012 2013 2014

Sold Listings A count of the properties that have sold in a given month.

3,3873,886 3,983

December

47,277

55,741 56,407

Year To Date (YTD)

+1.2%+14.7% +2.5% +17.9%


2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Sold Listing Activity

Total Days on Market The average number of days between when a property is first listed and when an offer is accepted. Sold listings only.

70

55

39

December

69

48

35

Year To Date (YTD)

-26.8%-21.4% -28.7% -31.1%


2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Total Days on Market


Median Sold Price

The median sold price for all sold listings in a given month. Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance.

$234,000$251,700

$285,250

December

$232,500$254,000

$274,900

Year To Date (YTD)

+8.2%+7.6% +13.3% +9.2%


2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Median Sold Price


Average Sold Price

The average sold price for all sold listings in a given month. Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance.

$289,900 $305,775$339,636

December

$280,259$305,048

$324,282

Year To Date (YTD)

+ 6.3%+ 5.5% + 8.8%+ 11.1%


2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Average Sold Price

Percent of Sold Price to List Price

Calculated by comparing final sold price to list price for sold listings. Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance.

98.3% 98.3% 98.9%

December

98.3% 99.0% 99.2%

Year To Date (YTD)

+0.2%0.0% +0.6% +0.7%


2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Historical Percent of Sold Price to List Price

Annual Review Historical look at key market metrics for the overall region.

39,082 40,189

47,277

55,741

2010 2011 2012 2013

Sold Listings

8795

69

48

2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Days on Market

+2.8% +17.6% +17.9% +9.2% -27.0% -31.1%


* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance.

$212,000 $209,779$232,500

$254,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

Median Sold Price*

97.4% 97.1% 98.3% 99.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013

Percent of Sold Price to List Price*

-1.0% +10.8% +9.2% -0.3% +1.2% +0.7%

YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % ChangeSingle Family (Detached + Attached)

New Listings 65,714 66,872 ‐2%

Under Contract 70,612 67,508 5%

Sold 56,407 55,741 1%

Avg CDOM 35 48 ‐27%

Avg Sold Price 324,282$ 305,048$ 6%Single Family Detached

New Listings 48,803 53,288 ‐8%

Under Contract 51,732 53,780 ‐4%

Sold 41,363 44,305 ‐7%

Avg CDOM 37 48 ‐23%

Avg Sold Price 360,335$ 332,663$ 8%Single Family Attached

New Listings 16,910 13,584 24%

Under Contract 18,880 13,728 38%

Sold 15,044 11,436 32%

Avg CDOM 30 48 ‐38%

Avg Sold Price 225,157$ 198,079$ 14%

As of December 31, 2014

Source: Metrolist, Inc. ‐ Compiled by 10K Research & Marketing ©1998‐2014 Metrolist, Inc. All rights reserved

Market SnapshotYTD 2014 vs YTD 2013

2014 Highlights and 2015 Predictions for Real Estate

• Sellers continue to be in the drivers’ seat in the sale negotiations of homes especially priced below $400,000.

• The briskness of sales and the amount of buyers buying was the hottest topic in 2014. The inventory continued to reduce during the year. When inventories drop like buyers make their moves in the market to purchase at a brisk pace.

• The increase in home prices across the metro area gain has helped people feel a little wealthier as more home have more equity than they have had over the last 8 years.

• 2014 sold data reflects 41,363 single family units closed this year compared to 44,305 homes in 2013. This 7% decrease indicates sales for the Denver Metro area are flattening and does indicate a more conservative growth moving forward into 2015.

• The number of condo’s closed data for 2014 is 15,044 units. This is a 32% increase over 2013 which recorded 11,436 condo’s closed. Clearly the in-crease in condo sales is a direct result of the increase in average sales price for Denver causing buyers to move to condo’s as a price point they can af-ford.

• The number of sold properties in Denver for 2013 priced below $500,000 is 36,566. Homes priced below $500,000 make up 84.12% of all the sales in Denver.

• Homes priced above $500,000 that sold in 2014 is 7085 homes compared to 2013 which had 6425 homes or a 10% increase in sales.

• Condominium sales in 2014 recorded 15,044 units sold. Most of the sales of condos were under $500,000 making up 97.46% of all the condo’s sold.

• Average Price is the third Highlight of 2014 marking a strong increase to recapture lost equity in homes.

• The median price of a single family home and condominiums by the end of 2014 is $274,900 compared to $254,000 at the end of 2013 or an 8.2% in-crease.

• Price rises when days on the market shortens because buyers are making a more aggressive buying position. The Days on the market in 2013 was 48 for a home and today it is 35 or a 26.8% decrease in Days on the Market.


THREE FUTURE THOUGHTS ABOUT WHERE 2015 HOUSING MARKET WILL BE.1. Inventories will start to rise over 2014 levels, except for the hottest neighborhoods in Denver. The reason for an increase of the inventory in the housing market is an increase of eq-uity in the real estate market has occurred in 2014, which is giving the freedom for a segment of sellers to place their home on the market and move. Today’s home Prices have more than offset the adjustments made during the 2008 to 2012 years. There are a sufficient number of house-holds who could not take advantage of refinancing at the lower interest rates and may consider selling now that they have a chance to get out without bring cash to closing. Finally, unemploy-ment for 2015 is improved to the point in Colorado and anticipated to be in the 4% range for unemployment for the upcoming year which brings some additional buyers to the buyer pool, creating a situation for sellers to capture the Right Buyer for their home.

2. Sales will decrease slightly for 2015 with sales to be approximately 53,000 single family and condos sold. 2014 experienced a continued abnormal amount of buyers entering the market due to low interest rates, stability in their personal economic situation and housing prices that were at 2006 levels. As the single family and condo homes closed in 2014, 2015 will be 2-3% less in number of units closed, which would still make 2015 the one of the highest number of sales in a decade. There primarily reason the housing market will see fewer buyers the second half of 2015 is that 1: Interest rates will be higher than today. 2: Secondly, the easing of the borrowing guidelines still require such rigid proof of ability to buy that self-employed or newly employed workers do not meet most of the guidelines causing the buyer pool to retreat some in 2015. 3: The inventory of properties continues to remain lower than normal, causing buyers to rent versus buy in 2015. This all gives for the number of units predicted to close to be less than 2014. However, due to interest rates holding steady for at least the first 8 months of 2015, we should see the same number of homes close early in the year as in 2014.

3. Prices of homes below $500,000 will increase 3-4% in 2015 depending upon the location. I do not see any prices of homes below $500,000 reducing in 2015 unless a major job loss oc-curred in one area, like the airport causing the housing in sub area was affected by an economic occurrence. Prices above $500,000 are finally on the rise. We see prices rising up to $1.5M de-pending upon the geographic location of a home. Location in upper end priced homes will really dictate the increase. For example, a $750,000 home in Cherry Creek is liable to go up at a faster rate than the same $750,000 in suburbs of Douglas County. Why would this be? It goes back to the comfort level of the buyer pool who will pay more for location than worry about value. With interest rates, even for jumbo loans at record low levels, some buyers who have economic stability in their life can see a bargain even at higher prices due to location. The luxury market is improving and will slowly have appreciation especially in the suburbs where luxury living be-comes a destination not generally a visited location with urban amenities. Buyer behavior has changed and buyers are more interested in convenience than mega mansion size. Hence hous-ing in Denver moves faster than Evergreen.

THANK YOU FOR ALLOWING THE DENVER 100 TO BE YOUR RESOURCE FOR THE DENVER HOUSING MARKET. WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR THE OPPORTUNITY

TO SERVE YOUR REAL ESTATE NEEDS IN 2015.

The Denver 100, LLC

385 Inverness Parkway, Suite 270, Englewood, CO 80112

Office: 303-708-0205 | www.Den100.com

Denver Residential Real Estate Annual Report

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