Demography Publication 2012

THE DEMOGRAPHIC & HEALTH SCENARIO OF RAJASTHAN FROM AN

ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVE

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS AND

STATISTICS, GOVERNMENT OF RAJASTHAN, YOJANA BHAWAN, JAIPUR

2012

Government of Rajasthan

THE DEMOGRAPHIC & HEALTH SCENARIO OF RAJASTHAN FROM AN

ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVE

Government of Rajasthan

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, GOVERNMENT OF RAJASTHAN, YOJANA BHAWAN,

JAIPUR

2012

3 The demographic & health scenario of Rajasthan from an Analytical perspective

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Sl. No. Contents

Page

No.

1.0 Preface .......................... 2

2.0 List of Tables................ 4

3.0 List of Figures................. 5

4.0 Abbreviations ...................... 6

5.0 Rajasthan at a Glance, 2012......................................... 7

6.0 Chapter 1 : The Current Scenario- The Current Demographic and Health

Scenario of Rajasthan................................................................................

8

7.0 Chapter 2 : The Future Scenario-Population Projection and estimation of

vital Statistics..............................................................................................

31

8.0 Chapter 3: Analytical insights into Demography, Health and Education

issues....................................................................................................................

41

9.0 Chapter 4: Conclusions and Way Forward 60

10.0 References ..................... 64

11.1 Annexure-1 : Ranking of States and UTs in India. 67

11.2 Annexure-2: Ranking of Districts in Rajasthan. 73

12.0 Status of selected MDG indicators for Rajasthan......................... 96

13.0 Official List of MDG indicators 101

14.0 Background Note on the Annual Health Survey, 2010-11.. 104

15.0 Definitions ......................... 106

16.0 Formula......................... 108


L I S T O F T A B L E S

Table No.

List of Tables Page No.

1 Rajasthans rank among the eight EAG states, AHS, 2010-11 11 2 Levels of IMR & MMR according to SRS in the EAG States and Assam with rank in descending

order of value, AHS, 2010-11 12

3 CBR in SRS, 2009 and AHS, 2010-11 (2007-09) 14 4 IMR and MMR in SRS, 2009 and AHS, 2010-11 (2007-09) 14 5 List of 5 common districts in Rajasthan featuring in top 100 districts in order of Infant Mortality

Rate and top 25 administrative divisions (Commissionerate) in order of Maternal Mortality Ratio 15

5a Human development Index Rank in India and major states, 1999-2000 and 2007-08 27 6 Projected Population as on 1st July from 2011 to 2021 (Provisional) 33-34 7 Projected Population as on 1st October from 2011 to 2021 (Provisional) 35-36 8 Annual Exponential, Geometric and Arithmetic Growth rates (2001-2011) (%)(Provisional) 37 9 CRS, SRS and Exponential estimates of IMR (2011-2012) 39

10 CRS, SRS and Exponential estimates of MMR (2010-2012) 39 11 Conversion factors for CRS for IMR for the years 2011 &2012 and MMR for the period of 2010-12 39 12 Results of Simple Linear Regression between IMR, 2007-09, AHS and Female Literacy, Census

2011 Provisional 42

13 Highest and Lowest Literacy and IMR in districts of Rajasthan 42 14 Odds Ratios from Multivariate Binary Logistic Regression Analysis of the likelihood of

contraceptive use among currently married women in the reproductive age of 15-49 years, Rajasthan (NFHS-3, 2005-06)

53

15 Profile of Rajasthan, Kerala and India 54 16 Progress of Selected Millennium Development Goals of 1-6 (1990-2015) for Rajasthan, 2012 56 17 Progress of Selected Monitorable Targets of Eleventh Plan (2007-12) for India and Rajasthan,

2012 57

18 GoI-UNJPC-GoR Convergence Districts of Rajasthan at a Glance : Population and sex ratio according to Census 2001

58

19 GoI-UNJPC-GoR Convergence Districts of Rajasthan at a Glance : Population and sex ratio according to Census 2011 provisional, Fertility and Mortality indicators according to Annual Health Survey, 2010-11 (2007-09)

58

19a GoI-UNJPC-GoR Convergence Districts of Rajasthan at a Glance : Education and Health indicators according to Census 2011 provisional and Annual Health Survey, 2010-11 (2007-09)

59

20 Reorganization of districts in India and States between Census 2001 and 2011 68 21 Percentage Share of Population by residence in Census 2001 and Provisional results of Census

2011 69

22 Population and decadal growth rate of India, States and UTs arranged in descending order according to Provisional results of Census

71

23 Population density of India, States and UTs arranged in descending order according to Provisional results of Census 2011

71

24 Total, Male and Female Literacy of India, States and UTs arranged in descending order according to Provisional results of Census 2011

72

25a Geographical area in sq. km. in Rajasthan and districts according to Census 2001 in descending order

74

25b Administrative units in Rajasthan according to Census 2001 and Provisional results of Census 2011

75

25c Division and District-wise population and decadal growth rate in Rajasthan according to Census 2001 and Provisional results of Census 2011

76

26 Population and population density of Rajasthan and districts arranged in descending order according to Provisional results of Census 2011

77

27 Percentage Share of Population by residence in Census 2001 and Provisional results of Census 2011

78

28 Overall Sex Ratio and Child Sex Ratio in the Districts of Rajasthan, arranged in descending order according to the provisional results of Census 2011

79

29 Total, Male and Female Literacy in the Districts of Rajasthan, arranged in descending order according to the provisional results of Census 2011

80


Table No.

List of Tables Page No.

30 Total, Rural and Urban Population by Gender in the Districts of Rajasthan, according to the provisional results of Census 2011

81-83

31 Population by Gender, Overall Sex Ratio, Child Sex Ratio and Literacy Rate in the cities of 1 lakh and above in Rajasthan according to the provisional results of Census

84

32 Child Sex Ratio (0-6 years) by Residence in the districts of Rajasthan according to the provisional results of Census 2011

85

33 Total Literacy Rate by Residence in the districts of Rajasthan according to the provisional results of Census 2011

86

34 Birth and Death Rates in the Districts of Rajasthan arranged in descending order of value, Annual Health Survey, 2010-11 (2007-09)

87

35 Child Mortality Rates in the Districts of Rajasthan arranged in descending order of value, Annual Health Survey, 2010-11 (2007-09)

88

36 Indicators of sex composition in the Districts of Rajasthan arranged in descending order of value, Annual

89

37 Selected Indicators of Annual Health Survey-Rajasthan, 2010-11 (2007-09) 90 38 Profile of Rajasthan and India (Selected Indicators) 91-95 39 Estimated Number and Percentage of Live births, Infant and maternal deaths in India and EAG

States, 2009 95

40 Selected MDG indicators for Rajasthan, 2012 96-100 41 District-Wise Sample of Annual Health Survey, 2010-11 for Rajasthan 105

L I S T O F F I G U R E S

Figure

No. Particulars Page No.

1 Levels of & MMR according to AHS, 2010-11 for the period of 2007-09 in the EAG States 12 2 Levels of & MMR according to AHS, 2010-11 for the period of 2007-09 in the 7 divisions of

Rajasthan 15

3 Overall Sex Ratio (OSR) in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 16 4 Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 17 5 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 18 6 Crude Death Rate (CDR in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 19 7 Infant Mortality Rate and Under five mortality Rate by Gender and Residence in Rajasthan,

AHS, 2007-09 20

8 IMR in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 21 9 Neonatal Mortality Rate in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 22 10 Post Neonatal Mortality Rate in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 23 11 U5MR in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09 24

11a Classic Phases of Demographic transition 25 11b Demographic transition in Rajasthan: 1972-2010 26 11c Demographic transition in Kerala: 1972-2010 26 12 Human development Index Rank in India and major states, 1999-2000 and 2007-08 28 13 Human development Index in the districts of Rajasthan, 2002 29 14 Human development Index in the districts of Rajasthan, 2007 29 15 Human development Index in the districts of Rajasthan, 2002 and 2007 30 16 Projection of IMR : 2011-2012 38 17 Projection of MMR : 2010-2012 40 18 Literacy Rates in India and Rajasthan by Gender, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 43 19 Total Literacy Rates in India, States and Union Territories, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 44 20 Male Literacy Rates in India, States and Union Territories, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 45 21 Female Literacy Rates in India, States and Union Territories, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 46 22 Total Literacy Rates in Rajasthan and Districts, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 47 23 Male Literacy Rates in Rajasthan and Districts, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 48 24 Female Literacy Rates in Rajasthan and Districts, Census 2011 Provisional (%) 49


A B B R E V I A T I O N S

AHS : Annual Health Survey BDO : Block Development Officer CBR : Crude Birth Rate CEB : Children Ever Born CD : Children Dead CDR : Crude Death Rate CRS : Civil Registration System CS : Children Surviving DLHS : District Level Household Survey DSO : District Statistical Officer EAG : Empowered Action Group GDP : Gross Domestic Product GSDP : Gross State Domestic Product GRR : Gross Reproduction Rate HDI : Human Development Index ICDS : Integrated Child Development Services IMR : Infant Mortality Rate MDGs : Millennium Development Goals MMR : Maternal Mortality Ratio NDP : Net Domestic Product NFHS : National Family Health Survey NRHM : National Rural Health Mission NSDP : Net State Domestic Product ORGI : Office of the Registrar General of India PCI : Per capita Income PEO : Progress Extension Officer RGI : Registrar General of India SBR : Stillbirth Rate SRB : Sex Ratio at Birth SRS : Sample Registration System ST : Scheduled Tribe TFR : Total Fertility Rate TMFR : Total Marital Fertility Rate U5MR : Under five Mortality Rate


Rajasthan at a glance : Population according to Census 2011 provisional, Fertility and Mortality indicators in the Districts of Rajasthan according to Annual Health

Survey, 2010-11 (2007-09)

Sl. No.

State / District Population, Census

2011 provisional (in lakh)*

Crude Birth Rate

(births per 1,000

MYP)**

Crude Death Rate

(deaths per 1,000

MYP)**

Infant Mortality

Rate (infant

deaths per 1,000 LBs)**

Neo- natal Mortality

Rate (deaths per

1,000 LBs)**

Under Five Mortality

Rate (deaths per

1,000 LBs)**

RAJASTHAN 686.21 24.7 6.6 60 40 79

1 Ajmer 25.85 23.8 6.4 57 34 77

2 Alwar 36.72 22.9 5.9 59 35 82

3 Banswara 17.98 30.8 7.7 62 41 99

4 Baran 12.24 25.7 6.8 62 41 79

5 Barmer 26.04 32.5 6.4 72 54 86

6 Bharatpur 25.49 23.8 6.0 55 42 75

7 Bhilwara 24.10 22.4 7.5 68 48 85

8 Bikaner 23.68 24.9 6.4 54 37 72

9 Bundi 11.14 23.7 7.8 65 45 81

10 Chittaurgarh 15.44

21.4 5.7 62 45 75

11 Churu 20.41 23.4 6.3 55 36 69

12 Dausa 16.37 22.4 6.6 57 33 87

13 Dhaulpur 12.07 29.1 5.9 63 36 77

14 Dungarpur 13.89 28.0 6.5 67 43 87

15 Ganganagar 19.70 22.7 6.3 60 39 79

16 Hanumangarh 17.80 23.6 6.3 54 35 73 17 Jaipur 66.64 23.1 5.9 55 39 74

18 Jaisalmer 6.72 24.2 6.7 58 30 78

19 Jalor 18.30 27.9 7.4 79 58 99

20 Jhalawar 14.11 25.0 7.8 65 47 82

21 Jhunjhunun 21.40 23.3 5.9 54 39 74

22 Jodhpur 36.86 23.9 6.3 54 35 71

23 Karauli 14.58 27.5 6.2 68 44 80

24 Kota 19.50 22.0 5.7 36 25 45

25 Nagaur 33.09 23.4 6.5 59 42 75

26 Pali 20.39 23.5 6.8 55 39 78

27 Pratapgarh 8.68 - - - - -

28 Rajsamand 11.58 28.1 8.7 65 41 89

29 Sawai Madhopur 13.38 27.4 7.4 67 46 78

30 Sikar 26.78 24.0 6.1 56 32 82

31 Sirohi 10.37 24.1 6.9 62 41 85

32 Tonk 14.22 23.3 7.6 51 33 73

33 Udaipur 30.68 29.9 8.2 62 40 88

Sources : *Census 2011 provisional and **Annual Health Survey, 2010-11


Chapter 1 : The Current Demographic and Health Scenario of Rajasthan


Chapter 1 The Current Demographic and Health Scenario of Rajasthan Introduction In India, the high levels of fertility and mortality is contributed mostly by a group of States now termed as Empowered Action Group (EAG1) States, formerly referred to as BIMARU States. These eight states are Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Orissa and Rajasthan. These eight States constitute 46 percent of the total population of India and account for 59 percent of the total poor in India. These States alone contribute to more than half (55 percent) of the estimated live births, two-thirds of infant deaths (66 percent) and eight out of ten maternal deaths (80 percent) in India. Rajasthan belongs to this group of states. Considering the fact that most of population and health indicators is at a low level in the state, it has been considered as a High Focus State under the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM: 2005-2012). In this publication, in the first chapter, the current demographic and health scenario has been presented, followed by a chapter on the projections of population and vital rates. The third chapter discusses some analytical insights into the data on demography, education and health. The last chapter discusses the key strategies and best practices at the national and international level to improve the situation of health demography in Rajasthan. It is followed by annexures on ranking of states and Union territories in India and districts in Rajasthan on selected demographic and health indicators. Area and Population Rajasthan is situated in the northern part of India. It is the largest State in India by area constituting 10.4 percent of the total geographical area of India and it accounts for 5.67 percent of population of India according to the provisional totals of Census 2011. Topographically, deserts in the State constitute a large chunk of the land mass, where the settlements are scattered and the density of population is quite low. It constitutes about three-fifths (233,100 sq. km.) of the total land mass of the state (342,239 sq. km.). It is administratively divided into 7 divisions, 33 districts and 44,672 villages as of Census 2011. Regarding the geographical reorganization of the districts, historically, in the last three decades (1981-2011), during the period of 1981-1991, Dhaulpur was formed, during 1991-2001, five districts of Baran, Dausa, Hanumangarh, Karauli and Rajasamand were carved out and during 2001-2011, the district of Pratapgarh has been carved out of the three districts of Banswara, Chittaurgarh and Udaipur. According to this provisional data, the population of India is 121.02 crore and of Rajasthan is 6.86 crore. The percentage variation between the projected population of 2011 and the actual provisional population of 2011 is 1.17 percent in Rajasthan compared to 1.48 percent in case of India. The population in the districts varies from a high of 66.64 lakh in Jaipur to a low of 6.72 lakh in Jaisalmer. The density of population varies from 598 persons per sq. km. in Jaipur to 17 in Jaislamer. Division-wise, the population is highest in case of Jaipur division with a population of 13,762,203 (which is about 20 % of the States population) and Kota division with the 1 In order to facilitate the preparation of area-specific programmes, with special emphasis on eight states that have been lagging behind in containing population growth to manageable limits, the Government of India has constituted an Empowered Action Group in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare w.e.f. 20th March, 2001.


lowest population of 4,733,121 (which is about 7 percent of the States population). In the districts of Rajasthan, the population varies from a high of 66.64 lakh in Jaipur to a low of 6.72 lakh in Jaisalmer. Decadal Growth Rate: According to the Census 2011, the decadal growth rate of the population of Rajasthan is 21.44 percent compared to 28.41 percent in the previous decennial period of 1991-2001. It is still higher than the decadal growth rate of India, which is 17.64 percent between 2001 and 2011, which has declined from a high of 21.54 percent during 1991 and 2001. Though the pace of growth has slowed down, but still, it is higher than the all India level. In the districts, the decadal growth rate varies from 32.55 percent in Barmer to 10.06 percent in Ganganagar. The Population density: The Population density in Rajasthan has increased from 165 per sq.km. during Census 2001 to 201 in the recent Census 2011. It has increased from 30 in 1901 to 201 in 2011 in the last 110 years. It varies from 598 in Jaipur to 17 in Jaisalmer. Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio of the population of Rajasthan in terms of number of females per thousand males is 926 compared to 940 in case of all India. There is a slight increase of five females per thousand males from 2001 to 2011. In the last 110 years from 1901 to 2011, in Rajasthan, the overall sex ratio has increased from 905 to 926 compared to a decline from 972 to 940 in case of India. In the districts of Rajasthan, it varies from 990 in Dungarpur to 845 in Dhaulpur. Alarmingly, the child sex ratio (0-6 years of age) has registered a sharp decline from 909 in 2001 to 883 in 2011 census. In the districts, it varies from 926 in Pratapgarh to 831 in Jhunjhunun. Except Sri Ganganagar, in all the districts, there is a decline in the child sex ratio. Among the states in India, in case of child sex ratio, Rajasthan was 28th in position during Census 2001 and it has declined to 29th position during the recent census of 2011. In overall sex ratio, it was in the 20th position among the states during Census 2001 and now it has assumed 21st position in Census 2011.

Literacy : The literacy rate of Rajasthan is 67.06 in total and 80.51 percent and 52.66 for males and females respectively compared to 74.04 percent, 82.14 and 65.46 percent respectively for persons, males and females in case of all India. In the districts of Rajasthan, the total literacy rate varies from 77.48 percent in case of Kota (which is highest) to 55.58 percent in case of Jalore (lowest). The male literacy varies from 87.88 percent in case of Jhunjhunun to 70.13 percent in case of Pratapgarh.

As regards to the trends in literacy rate, it presents a dismal picture, as the literacy rate in case of Churu and Barmer have declined in the last decade both in case of males and females. The female literacy varies from 66.32 percent in case of Kota to 38.73 percent in case of Jalore. In total literacy, Rajasthan ranks 33rd amongst the 35 states and union territories and in case of male and female literacy it ranks 27th and 35th respectively. Among the States, Rajasthan is at the bottom in terms of the female literacy rate.


Percentage of Economically backward classes of SC & ST At the all India level as well as in most of the States, the SC and ST population is mostly backward in almost all socio-economic and health indicators. The combined percentage of SC and ST in Rajasthan is little less than a third (29.62 percent). Low Population Density in Rajasthan : The population density in western Rajasthan in the desert districts is quite low making it difficult for service delivery in these areas. It increases the cost of service delivery. There is a need to improve the condition in these areas by allocating more funds towards this. Declining Sex Ratio in Rajasthan : Sex ratio is a measure of the sex composition of a population. There are several measures of this indicator like; 1. The Overall Sex Ratio, 2. Child Sex Ratio and 3. The Sex Ratio at Birth. The overall sex ratio in the Indian context refers to the number of females per 1,000 males in the total population. Child sex ratio refers to the number of girls in the age group of 0-6 years per 1,000 boys in the same age group. The overall sex ratio in Rajasthan is 926. The child sex ratio in Rajasthan is quite low at 883 girls per thousand boys. Similar is the case with sex ratio at birth, which is masculine in nature in Rajasthan. It is 870 in Rajasthan. There is a need to increase the awareness level of the community towards addressing the issue of gender discrimination. Adverse Maternal and Child Health (MDG 4 & 5) The health situation of Rajasthan needs a lot of critical inputs for improvement. The major health MDG outcome indicators of 4 and 5 like; IMR and MMR are quite high in Rajasthan. IMR is the most sensitive indicator of human development. It is at a high level in Rajasthan. The IMR of Rajasthan is 55 per thousand live births, which is about five times to that of Kerala. The Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) of Rajasthan is 318 per one lakh live births, which is about four times of to that of Kerala.

Table 1 : Rajasthans rank among the eight EAG states, AHS, 2010-11

Sl. No.

Indicator Unit Rajasthan Rajasthans Rank among

eight EAG States 1 IMR Infant deaths per

thousand live births 60 4th

2 NNMR Neonatal deaths per thousand live births

40 4th

3 U5MR Under-five per thousand live births

79 4th

4 MMRatio Maternal deaths per lakh live births

331 2nd

Source : Annual Health Survey, 2010-11, RGI, GoI

Among the 8 EAG states including Assam, a special category state, Rajasthan is ranked third highest in MMR.


Figure 1 : Levels of Maternal Mortality Ratio in 8 EAG States + Assam (2007-09)

381

345

331

310

305

278

277

275

188

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Assam

UttarPradesh

Rajasthan

MadhyaPradesh

Bihar

Jharkhand

Odisha

Chattisgarh

Uttarakhand


Trends in IMR and MMR in India and Rajasthan The maternal mortality ratio in Rajasthan has declined from 508 per one lakh live births to 318 per one lakh live births in a period of a decade from 1997-98 to 2007-09. The percentage decline in MMR Rajasthan is 37 percent in Rajasthan. The IMR in Rajasthan has declined from 123 in 1972 to 55 in 2010. The percentage decline in the last three decades in IMR in Rajasthan is 55 percent.

Table 2 : Levels of IMR & MMR according to SRS in the EAG States and

Assam with rank in descending order of value, AHS, 2010-11

State Rank in IMR, AHS, 2010-11

(2007-09) State

Rank in MMR, AHS, 2010-11

(2007-09) Assam 4 Assam 1 Bihar 6 Bihar 5 Chhatisgarh 7 Chhatisgarh 8

Jharkhand 9 Jharkhand 6 Madhya Pradesh 2 Madhya Pradesh 4 Odisha 3 Odisha 7 Rajasthan 5 Rajasthan 3

Uttar Pradesh 1 Uttar Pradesh 2 Uttarakhand 8 Uttarakhand 9 Source : Annual Health Survey, 2010-11, RGI, GoI


GSDP & Per capita Income As per the quick estimates, the percapita income of Rajasthan is Rs. 26,436/- at constant prices during 2010-11 and the GDP growth rate is 10.97 per cent for 2010-11 over the previous year. The percentage share of GSDP at current prices and at constant prices of Rajasthan in India is 4.5 and 4.2 per cent respectively as per 2010-11 quick estimates. As per the advance estimates for 2011-12, the percapita income of Rajasthan is Rs. 27,421/- at constant prices during 2011-12 and the GDP growth rate is 5.41 per cent for 2011-12 over the previous year The average growth rate of GDP during 2007-08 to 2010-11 is 7.7 per cent compared to 8.2 per cent in case of all India and during 2007-08 to 2011-12 is 7.2 per cent compared to 7.9 per cent in case of all India, in which the estimate for 2008-09 is provisional, 2010-11 is quick and 2011-12 is advance. The public expenditure on health as a share of GSDP According to the National Health Accounts Cell of the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, GoI, 2004-05, the public expenditure on health as a percentage share of GSDP is low in Rajasthan (0.98 percent). The public expenditure on health as a share of state expenditure is also on the lower side in Rajasthan (3.90). The actual public expenditure on health in Rajasthan is Rs. 1128.3 crore. The percapita public expenditure on health is high in Rajasthan (Rs. 186). Poverty Levels According to the latest estimates released in March 2012 by the Planning Commission using Tendulkar Methodology, the percentage of population below poverty line is 24.8 percent in case of Rajasthan compared to 29.8 per cent at the all India level. Wide District-wise variations in Rajasthan There is a lot of district-wise variation in the State. According to the Census 2001, the geographical area of the districts vary from 3,033 sq. km. in Dholpur to 38,401 sq. km. in Jaisalmer. According to census 2011, the district-wise population varies from 66.64 lakh in Jaipur to 6.72 lakh in Jaisalmer. The population density varies from 17 in Jaisalmer to 598 in Jaipur. In the districts, the decadal growth rate from 2001 to 2011 varies from 32.55 percent in Barmer to 10.06 percent in Ganganagar. The CBR varies from 21.4 births per 1,000 mid-year population in Chittaurgarh to 32.5 births per 1,000 mid-year population in Barmer. The literacy rate varies from 55.58 percent in Jalore to 77.48 in Kota. The male literacy rate varies from 70.13 in Pratapgarh to 87.88 percent in Jhunjhunun. The female literacy rate varies from 38.73 percent in Jalore to 66.32 in Kota. The overall sex ratio varies from 990 females per thousand males in Dungarpur to 845 in Dholpur. The Child Sex Ratio (0-6 years) varies from 926 females per thousand males in Pratapgarh to 831 in Jhunjhunun. The IMR varies from 36 in Kota to 79 in Jalore district. Fertility and Mortality Levels : Birth Rate, Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) & Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) State level : According to the Annual Health Survey, among the nine States of Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, Bihar has recorded the highest CBR (26.7 births per thousand mid-year population) and Uttarakhand the lowest CBR of under 20 (18.6 births per thousand mid-year population). In case of IMR, Uttar Pradesh has recorded the highest IMR (71 infant deaths per thousand live births) and Jharkhand the lowest IMR of under 50 (41 infant deaths per thousand live births). In case of MMR, Rajasthan (331) ranks third among the nine states and second among the EAG states. Among the nine States,


Assam has the highest MMR (381) and Uttarakhand has the lowest MMR of under 200 (188). Rajasthan (331) ranks third among the nine states and second among the EAG states.

Table 3 : CBR in SRS, 2009 and AHS, 2010-11 (2007-09)

Sl. No.

State CBR-SRS

CBR-AHS

Difference in CBR (AHS-SRS)

India 22.5 - - 1 Assam 23.6 21.9 -1.7 2 Bihar 28.5 26.7 -1.8 3 Jharkhand 25.6 23.7 -1.9 4 Madhya Pradesh 27.7 25.0 -2.7 5 Chhatisgarh 25.7 23.9 -1.8 6 Odisha 21.0 20.0 -1.0 7 Rajasthan 27.2 24.7 -2.5 8 Uttarakhand 19.7 18.6 -1.1 9 Uttar Pradesh 28.7 25.5 -3.2

Reference Period: SRS- Calendar year 2009 and AHS- Calendar years 2007 to 2009 Source : Sample Registration System (SRS) and Annual Health Survey, 2010-11

Table 4 : IMR and MMR in SRS, 2009 and AHS, 2010-11 (2007-09)

Sl. No.

State MMR-SRS

MMR-AHS

Difference in MMR (AHS-

SRS)

IMR-SRS

IMR-AHS

Difference in IMR (AHS-

SRS) India 212 - - 50 - - 1 Assam 390 381 -9 61 60 -1 2 Bihar 261 305 - 52 55 3 3 Jharkhand 278 - 44 41 -3 4 Madhya

Pradesh 269 310 - 67 67 0

5 Chhatisgarh 275 - 54 53 -1 6 Odisha 258 277 19 65 62 -3 7 Rajasthan 318 331 13 59 60 1 8 Uttarakhand 359 188 - 41 43 2 9 Uttar Pradesh 345 - 63 71 8

Reference Period: SRS- Calendar year 2009 and AHS- Calendar years 2007 to 2009 Source : Sample Registration System (SRS) and Annual Health Survey, 2010-11 Divisional Level maternal mortality Situation in Rajasthan : Among the divisions in Rajasthan, the tribal dominant division of Udaipur has the highest MMR (364) and Bharatpur has the lowest MMR of under 300 (292). The seven divisions consist of the following districts:

Sl. No.

Division Districts

1 Ajmer Nagaur, Ajmer, Tonk, Bhilwara 2 Bikaner Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Bikaner, Churu 3 Bharatpur Bharatpur, Dhaulpur, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur 4 Jaipur Jhunjhunun, Alwar, Dausa, Jaipur, Sikar 5 Jodhpur Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jalor, Sirohi, Pali 6 Kota Bundi, Kota, Baran, Jhalawar 7 Udaipur Rajsamand, Udaipur, Dungarpur, Banswara, Chittaurgarh


Figure 2 : Levels of & MMR according to AHS, 2010-11 for the period of 2007-09 in the 7 divisions of Rajasthan

292

319 322331 338

343 343

364

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Bharatpur Jaipur Jodhpur Rajasthan Ajmer Bikaner Kota Udaipur


Table 5 : List of 5 common districts in Rajasthan featuring in top 100 districts in order of Infant Mortality Rate and top 25 administrative divisions (Commissionerate) in order of Maternal Mortality Ratio

Sl. No. State Name of districts

1 Rajasthan Bhilwara 2 Rajasthan Dungarpur 3 Rajasthan Rajsamand 4 Rajasthan Jhalawar 5 Rajasthan Bundi



District level Demographic and Health Scenario of Rajasthan

Overall Sex Ratio (OSR) : Among the districts in Rajasthan, four districts of Jalore (1055), Rajsamand (1030), Sirohi (1002) and Dungarpur (1001) have reported to have the highest overall sex ratio over 1,000 and Dhaulpur the lowest under 900 (819).

Figure 3 : Overall Sex Ratio (OSR) in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

10551030

10021001986983982975965961960952951938929928925922913911908906905889883882882881874872851

827822

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

JalorRajsamand

SirohiDungarpur

BarmerPali

UdaipurBanswara

ChuruJhunjhunun

SikarBhilwara

ChittaurgarhAjmerBaran

JhalawarRajasthanNagaurJodhpurBikanerBundiKotaTonk

DausaHanumangarh

AlwarGanganagar

JaipurBharatpur

SawaiMadhopurJaisalmer

KarauliDhaulpur



Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) : In case of sex ratio at birth in the districts of Rajasthan, Bhilwara has reported to be the highest (968) and Sawai Madhopur the lowest under 800 (782).

Figure 4 : Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

968927925923922914912909905894894889887887883882882878874872870865864856846846844841841836830820

782

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

BhilwaraBanswara

TonkBaran

BarmerJhunjhununChittaurgarh

JodhpurBikanerBundiChuru

GanganagarAjmerSirohiPali

AlwarJalor

RajasthanHanumangarh

DungarpurUdaipur

BharatpurJhalawar

SikarJaipurKota

NagaurDausa

JaisalmerRajsamand

KarauliDhaulpur

SawaiMadhopur



Crude Birth Rate (CBR): In case of crude birth rate, Barmer has been reported to have the highest birth rate (32.5 births per thousand mid-year population) and Chittaurgarh the lowest (21.4 births per thousand mid-year population).

Figure 5 : Crude Birth Rate (CBR) in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

32.530.8

29.929.1

28.128.027.927.527.4

25.725.024.924.724.224.124.023.923.823.823.723.623.523.423.423.323.323.122.922.722.422.422.021.4

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

BarmerBanswaraUdaipurDhaulpur

RajsamandDungarpur

JalorKarauli

SawaiMadhopurBaran

JhalawarBikaner

RAJASTHANJaisalmer

SirohiSikar

JodhpurAjmer

BharatpurBundi

HanumangarhPali

ChuruNagaur

JhunjhununTonkJaipurAlwar

GanganagarBhilwara

DausaKota

Chittaurgarh



Crude Death Rate (CDR): In case of crude death rate in the districts of Rajasthan, Rajsamand has been reported to be the highest (8.7 deaths per thousand mid-year population) and Chittaurgarh the lowest (5.7 deaths per thousand mid-year population).

Figure 6 : Crude Death Rate (CDR in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

8.78.2

7.87.87.77.67.57.47.4

6.96.86.86.76.66.66.56.56.46.46.46.36.36.36.36.26.16.05.95.95.95.9

5.75.7

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

RajsamandUdaipurBundi

JhalawarBanswara

TonkBhilwara

JalorSawaiMadhopur

SirohiBaranPali

JaisalmerRajasthan

DausaDungarpur

NagaurAjmerBarmerBikanerChuru

GanganagarHanumangarh

JodhpurKarauliSikar

BharatpurAlwar

DhaulpurJaipur

JhunjhununChittaurgarh

Kota



Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) : According to AHS, the levels of IMR and U5MR are quite high in Rajasthan. Gender-wise, female IMR is 65 compared to 55 for males and female U5MR is 87 compared to 72 for males. This pattern is also seen by residence as female IMR and U5MR is higher than male IMR and U5MR in both urban and rural areas of Rajasthan.

Figure 7 : Infant (IMR) and Under-Five Mortality (U5MR) by Gender and Residence in Rajasthan, 2007-09

6055

65 6459

69

4338

49

7972

87 8579

92

5750

65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Total Rural Rural Urban Urban

IMR U5MR



In case of infant mortality rate in the districts of Rajasthan, Jalore has been reported to be the highest (79 infant deaths per thousand live births) and Kota the lowest (36 infant deaths per thousand live births).

Figure 8 : IMR in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

7972

68686767

656565

636262626262

60605959585757565555555554545454

5136

0 20 40 60 80 100

JalorBarmer

BhilwaraKarauli

DungarpurSawaiMadhopur

BundiJhalawar

RajsamandDhaulpurBanswara

BaranChittaurgarh

SirohiUdaipur

RajasthanGanganagar

AlwarNagaur

JaisalmerAjmerDausaSikar

BharatpurChuruJaipurPali

BikanerHanumangarh

JhunjhununJodhpur

TonkKota



Neonatal Mortality Rate (NNMR) : In case of neonatal mortality rate in the districts of Rajasthan, Jalore has been reported to be the highest (58 neonatal deaths per thousand live births) and Kota the lowest (25 neonatal deaths per thousand live births).

Figure 9 : Neonatal Mortality Rate in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

5854

48474645454443424241414141404039393939

37363635353534333332

3025

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

JalorBarmer

BhilwaraJhalawar

SawaiMadhopurBundi

ChittaurgarhKarauli

DungarpurBharatpur

NagaurBanswara

BaranRajsamand

SirohiRajasthanUdaipur

GanganagarJaipur

JhunjhununPali

BikanerChuru

DhaulpurAlwar

HanumangarhJodhpurAjmerDausaTonkSikar

JaisalmerKota



Post Neonatal Mortality Rate (PNMR) : In case of post neonatal mortality rate in the districts of Rajasthan, Jaisalmer has been reported to be the highest (28 post neonatal deaths per thousand live births) and Kota the lowest (10 post neonatal deaths per thousand live births).

Figure 10 : Post Neonatal Mortality Rate in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

2826

24242424

2323

2222

212121212121

2020202020

1918181818

171717

1616

1310

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

HanumangarhBikaner

BharatpurBundiChuruNagaur

DhaulpurRajsamandJhunjhunun

PaliAjmer

ChittaurgarhJaisalmer

JalorSawaiMadhopur

TonkRajasthan

AlwarGanganagar

KarauliKotaBaran

BanswaraJaipur

JodhpurUdaipur

DungarpurJhalawar

SikarBarmerDausa

BhilwaraSirohi



Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) : Among the districts in Rajasthan, Jalore (99) and Banswara (99) have reported to having the highest under five mortality and the urbanized district of Kota has the lowest U5MR (45).

Figure 11 : U5MR in the districts of Rajasthan, AHS, 2007-09

9999

89888787868585

8282828180797979787878777775757574747373727169

45

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

BanswaraJalor

RajsamandUdaipurDausa

DungarpurBarmer

BhilwaraSirohiAlwar

JhalawarSikarBundiKarauli

RajasthanBaran

GanganagarJaisalmer

PaliSawaiMadhopur

AjmerDhaulpurBharatpur

ChittaurgarhNagaurJaipur

JhunjhununHanumangarh

TonkBikanerJodhpurChuruKota



Demographic Transition in Rajasthan and Kerala Demographic transition is the model of population change over a period of time in terms of the nations transformation from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. The difference between the birth rate and death rate is called the crude rate of natural increase. This transition involves four stages. In stage 1, high death rates balance high birth rates with no or slow population growth, while in stage 2, the death rates begin to drop with birth rates still remaining high leading to increasing rates of population growth. In stage 3, birth rates decline resulting in decline in population growth and in stage 4, both birth and death rates are low and as a result, population growth slows, stops or declines. The birth and death rates from 1972 to 2010 in Rajasthan and a demographically good state of Kerala have been presented in the graphs below. According to this, Rajasthan seems to be in the early third stage of the demographic transition, where the birth rate has dipped from a high of 42.4 in 1972 to 26.7 in 2010 and death rate has dipped from 16.8 to 6.7 per thousand mid-year population, while Kerala is in the fourth stage, where the birth rate has declined from 31.2 per thousand mid-year population to 14.8 during the same period and death rates have declined from 9.2 to 7.0 per thousand mid-year population (See Graphs below). It is alarming that the natural growth rate is 20.0 in case of Rajasthan compared to 7.8 in case of Kerala.

Figure 11a : Classic Phases of Demographic transition

Source : World Population Datasheet, 2011


Figure 11b : Demographic transition in Rajasthan, 1972-2010 42.4

26.7

16.8

6.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

CBR CDR

Source : SRS, 1972-2010

Figure 11c : Demographic transition in Kerala, 1972-2010

31.2

14.8

9.2 7.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

CBR CDR

Source : SRS, 1972-2010


Human Development Index (HDI) India and States According to the recently released India Human Development Report 2011 : Towards Social Inclusion, by the Institute of Applied Manpower Research, Planning Commission, the HDI rank of Rajasthan has declined from a rank of 14 (0.387) in the year 1999-2000 to 17 in the year 2007-08 (0.434) among 29 states, where seven north eastern states have been combined excluding Assam. Kerala has gained the number one rank in 2007-08 from a number 2 in 1999-2000. Chhatisgarh is at the bottom of the tally of States at 23rd rank. The seven EAG states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa and Chhattisgarh and Assam are at the bottom of the ranking distribution. The State and district-wise HDI has been presented as follows: Table 5a : Human Development Index (HDI) Rank in 1999-2000 and 2007-

08 Sl. No.

State Rank 1999-2000

Rank 2007-08

1 Kerala 2 1 2 Delhi 1 2 3 Himachal Pradesh 4 3 4 Goa 3 4 5 Punjab 5 5 6 North Eastern States (excluding

Assam) 9 6

7 Maharashtra 6 7 8 Tamil Nadu 8 8 9 Haryana 7 9 10 Jammu and Kashmir 11 10 11 Gujarat 10 11 12 Karnataka 12 12 13 West Bengal 13 13 14 Uttaranchal 16 14 15 Andhra Pradesh 15 15 16 Assam 17 16 17 Rajasthan 14 17 18 Uttar Pradesh 18 18 19 Jharkhand 23 19 20 Madhya Pradesh 20 20 21 Bihar 19 21 22 Orissa 22 22 23 Chhattisgarh 21 23

Source : India Human Development Report 2011 : Towards Social Inclusion, Institute of Applied Manpower Research, Planning Commission, GoI


Figure 12 : Human Development Index (HDI) Rank in 1999-2000 and 2007-08

0

5

10

15

20

25Kerala

DelhiHimachalPradesh

Goa

Punjab

NE(excludingAssam)

Maharashtra

TamilNadu

Haryana

JammuandKashmir

GujaratKarnatakaWestBengal

Uttaranchal

AndhraPradesh

Assam

Rajasthan

UttarPradesh

Jharkhand

MadhyaPradesh

Bihar

OrissaChhattisgarh

Rank19992000

Rank20078

Source : India Human Development Report 2011 : Towards Social Inclusion, Institute of Applied Manpower Research, Planning Commission, GoI

HDI in the districts of Rajasthan

As pe the report of the Rajasthan Human Development Report 2002, the tribal district of Dungarpur had the lowest HDI, which has not changed in 2007. Sri Ganganagar has remained the best HDI district in two periods of 2002 and 2007.


Figure 13

0 .6 560 .64 4

0 .6130 .607

0 .5920 .5920 .58 90 .58 40 .5830 .5810 .5780 .57 40 .5670 .5610 .561

0 .5470 .54 40 .5370 .5310 .5310 .5270 .5260 .5 200 .5170 .5170 .5110 .50 30 .50 30 .5 00

0 .47 20 .4610 .456

0 .0 0 0 0 .1 0 0 0 .2 0 0 0 .3 0 0 0 .4 0 0 0 .5 0 0 0 .6 0 0 0 .7 0 0

GAN GAN AGARHAN UMAN GARH

KO TAJA IPU RA LW AR

BIKAN ERJHU N JHU N U

KARAU L ISAW A I MADHOPU R

A JM ERBARANDAU SA

JODHPU RSIKAR

BHARATPU RBU N DI

N AGAU RCHU RU

PA L ITON K

CH ITTO RGARHRA JSAMAN D

SIROH IJA ISA LM ERBH ILW ARAJHA LAW ARU DA IPU RDHO LPU R

JA LO RBAN SW ARA

BARMERDU N GARPU R

Source : Rajasthan Human Development Report, 2002

Figure 14

0.8090.7870.7790.778

0.7610.744

0.7110.6980.6860.6770.673

0.6530.6490.645

0.6330.6140.6100.6060.6040.595

0.5780.5780.5760.5710.5660.5610.5580.547

0.5270.497

0.4250.409

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900

GanganagarKota

BikanerJaipur

HanumangarhAlwar

JhunjhununSikar

JodhpurAjmer

JaisalmerBaranBundiSirohi

BhilwaraJhalawarNagaurChuru

BharatpurUdaipurBarmer

RajsamandDausaTonk

KarauliSawaiMadhopur

ChittaurgarhPaliJalor

DhaulpurBanswaraDungarpur

Source : Rajasthan Human Development Report- An update, 2008


Figure 15

0

5

1015

20

25

3035Ajmer

AlwarBanswara

BaranBarmer

Bharatpur

Bhilwara

Bikaner

Bundi

Chittaurgarh

Churu

Dausa

DhaulpurDungarpur

GanganagarHanumangarh

JaipurJaisalmerJalor

JhalawarJhunjhunun

Jodhpur

Karauli

Kota

Nagaur

Pali

Rajsamand

SawaiMadhopurSikar

SirohiTonkUdaipur

2002 2007


Chapter 2 : Population Projections and estimations of vital statistics


Chapter 2 Population Projections and estimations of vital statistics

Population projections are required for planning purposes. It is carried out through three methods, which are as follows : 1. Mathematical methods, 2. The Cohort Component method and 3. The Ratio method. For the use in vital statistics to compute expected events of births and deaths and to enable the computation of the per capita income of the state and districts, an attempt has been made to project the population of Rajasthan based on the recent provisional Census results upto 2021 as on 1st July and 1st October. The preferred method for projection is the Cohort Component Method at the state and national level. But due to unavailability of age-wise and sex-wise data from the recent census of 2011, the next suitable mathematical method of exponential growth function has been used to project the States population. As one single growth rate could not be used for a long period of one decade, alternatively, the annual exponential growth rates for the last 3 decades of 1981-2011 has been used to project the exponential growth rates of the future years of 2012-2021. The projected exponential growth rate has been used to project the state population. The district level projections have been carried out by the ratio method. This has been done keeping in view, the urgent demand for vital and finance statistics. Exponential growth refers to the situation where growth compounds continuously at every instant of time. Accordingly, it is sometimes called instantaneous growth. Geometric growth is a special case of exponential growth because compounding occurs at intervals much longer than an instant. Population changes at each instant of time. Every second or a minute there is a birth happening somewhere. Population does not only compound annually, it grows every moment. In larger populations, changes may occur almost continuously not just at yearly intervals. Recognition of this led to a focus on exponential growth, which more accurately describes the continuous and cumulative nature of population growth.

Comparison of Population projections by GoI and GoR for Rajasthan

Year

Projected Population as on 1st July (000) Projected Population as on 1st October (000)

This Report RGI, GoI*

DES, Rajasth

an**

% Diff-erence

(2-3)/3*10

0

% Diff-

erence (2-4)/

4*100 This

Report RGI, GoI*

DES, Rajasthan

**

% Diff-

erence (7-8)/8 *100

% Diff-

erence (7-9)/ 9 *100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

2011 69067 68194 71198 1.3 -3.0 69403 68468 71583 1.4 -3.0

2012 70314 69250 72747 1.5 -3.3 70656 69519 73137 1.6 -3.4 2013 71584 70293 74316 1.8 -3.7 71933 70559 74712 1.9 -3.7

2014 72877 71315 75906 2.2 -4.0 73232 71576 76307 2.3 -4.0

2015 74193 72311 77517 2.6 -4.3 74554 72566 77923 2.7 -4.3

2016 75533 73276 79149 3.1 -4.6 75901 73523 79560 3.2 -4.6

2017 76897 74253 80802 3.6 -4.8 77272 74500 81218 3.7 -4.9

2018 78286 75207 82475 4.1 -5.1 78667 75450 82896 4.3 -5.1

2019 79700 76146 84168 4.7 -5.3 80088 76385 84595 4.8 -5.3

2020 81140 77071 85883 5.3 -5.5 81535 77307 86315 5.5 -5.5

2021 82605 77984 87618 5.9 -5.7 83007 78216 88055 6.1 -5.7 Source : *Technical Group on Population Projections, National Commission on Population, RGI, GoI, ** Population Projections, Rajasthan, 2001-2021, DES Rajasthan, 2002


In order to compute the percentage of birth and death registration, in the State, the district level projections carried out by Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES) are being used. The State level projections by DES from 2002-2021 have been carried out by fitting a multinomial curve to census population of the State from 1951 to 2001. The district level projections have been carried out by the Ratio method using the ratios from census population of 1971-2001. The earlier, population projections had been done from 1991-2011, 1991-2001 and 1971-81. At the all India level, the expected events are based on the projections by the RGI, GoI for the States. The comparison of the population projections by GoI and GoR with the current projections has been done in the above table, where it is observed that the RGI projections are on a lower side and the DES projections are on a higher side.

Table 6 : Projected Population as on 1st July from 2011 to 2021 (Provisional)

STATE/ DISTRICTS

Actual Projected as on 1st July (000)

Census 2001 as on 1st March


(Provisional) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rajasthan 56507188 68621012 69067 70314 71584 72877 74193 Ajmer 2178447 2584913 2600 2647 2694 2743 2793 Alwar 2991552 3671999 3697 3764 3832 3901 3972 Banswara 1420601 1798194 1812 1845 1878 1912 1947 Baran 1021473 1223921 1231 1254 1276 1299 1323 Barmer 1964835 2604453 2629 2676 2725 2774 2824 Bharatpur 2100020 2549121 2566 2612 2659 2707 2756 Bhilwara 2020969 2410459 2425 2468 2513 2558 2605 Bikaner 1902110 2367745 2385 2428 2472 2517 2562 Bundi 962620 1113725 1119 1139 1160 1181 1202 Chittaurgarh 1330360 1544392 1552 1580 1609 1638 1667 Churu 1696039 2041172 2054 2091 2129 2167 2206 Dausa 1323002 1637226 1649 1679 1709 1740 1771 Dhaulpur 983258 1207293 1216 1238 1260 1283 1306 Dungarpur 1107643 1388906 1399 1425 1450 1477 1503 Ganganagar 1789423 1969520 1975 2011 2047 2084 2122 Hanumangarh 1518005 1779650 1789 1821 1854 1888 1922 Jaipur 5251071 6663971 6717 6838 6962 7087 7215 Jaisalmer 508247 672008 678 690 703 716 729 Jalor 1448940 1830151 1844 1878 1912 1946 1981 Jhalawar 1180323 1411327 1420 1445 1472 1498 1525 Jhunjhunun 1913689 2139658 2147 2186 2226 2266 2307 Jodhpur 2886505 3685681 3716 3783 3851 3921 3991 Karauli 1205888 1458459 1468 1494 1521 1549 1577 Kota 1568705 1950491 1965 2000 2036 2073 2111 Nagaur 2775058 3309234 3329 3389 3450 3512 3576 Pali 1820251 2038533 2046 2083 2121 2159 2198 Pratapgarh 706807 868231 874 890 906 922 939 Rajsamand 982523 1158283 1165 1186 1207 1229 1251 S.Madhopur 1117057 1338114 1346 1371 1395 1420 1446 Sikar 2287788 2677737 2692 2740 2790 2840 2892 Sirohi 851107 1037185 1044 1063 1082 1102 1122 Tonk 1211671 1421711 1429 1455 1481 1508 1535 Udaipur 2481201 3067549 3089 3145 3202 3260 3319


The projected population from the RGI projections upto 2026 by the Technical Group On Population Projections, National Commission on Population, RGI, GoI at the state level, could not be used as it is based on census 2001 and the projected population as on 1st July 2011 is 6.82 crore and as on 1st October 2011 is 6.85 crore, which is less than the provisional census population as on 1st March, 2011 (6.86 crore) from the recent census.

Table 6 : Projected Population as on 1st July from 2016 to 2021 Provisional (Contd)

STATE/ DISTRICTS

Projected as on 1st July (000)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rajasthan 75533 76897 78286 79700 81140 82605 Ajmer 2843 2894 2947 3000 3054 3109 Alwar 4043 4116 4191 4266 4343 4422 Banswara 1982 2018 2054 2091 2129 2168 Baran 1347 1371 1396 1421 1447 1473 Barmer 2875 2927 2980 3033 3088 3144 Bharatpur 2806 2857 2908 2961 3014 3069 Bhilwara 2652 2700 2748 2798 2848 2900 Bikaner 2608 2655 2703 2752 2802 2853 Bundi 1224 1246 1268 1291 1315 1338 Chittaurgarh 1697 1728 1759 1791 1823 1856 Churu 2246 2287 2328 2370 2413 2456 Dausa 1803 1836 1869 1903 1937 1972 Dhaulpur 1329 1353 1378 1403 1428 1454 Dungarpur 1530 1558 1586 1615 1644 1674 Ganganagar 2160 2199 2239 2280 2321 2363 Hanumangarh 1957 1992 2028 2065 2102 2140 Jaipur 7346 7478 7614 7751 7891 8034 Jaisalmer 742 755 769 783 797 811 Jalor 2017 2054 2091 2128 2167 2206 Jhalawar 1553 1581 1609 1638 1668 1698 Jhunjhunun 2348 2391 2434 2478 2523 2568 Jodhpur 4064 4137 4212 4288 4365 4444 Karauli 1605 1634 1664 1694 1724 1755 Kota 2149 2187 2227 2267 2308 2350 Nagaur 3640 3706 3773 3841 3911 3981 Pali 2238 2278 2319 2361 2404 2447 Pratapgarh 956 973 991 1009 1027 1046 Rajsamand 1274 1297 1320 1344 1368 1393 S.Madhopur 1472 1499 1526 1553 1582 1610 Sikar 2944 2997 3051 3106 3162 3219 Sirohi 1142 1162 1183 1205 1227 1249 Tonk 1563 1591 1620 1649 1679 1709 Udaipur 3379 3440 3502 3565 3629 3695


The State level projections by DES from 2002-2021 could not be used for the same reason that it is based on the last census of 2001.

Table 7 : Projected Population as on 1st October from 2011 to 2021 (Provisional)

STATE/ DISTRICTS

Actual Projected as on 1st October (000)



(Provisional) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rajasthan 56507188 68621012 69403 70656 71933 73232 74554 Ajmer 2178447 2584913 2611 2658 2706 2755 2805 Alwar 2991552 3671999 3716 3783 3852 3921 3992 Banswara 1420601 1798194 1823 1856 1889 1924 1958 Baran 1021473 1223921 1237 1259 1282 1305 1329 Barmer 1964835 2604453 2647 2695 2743 2793 2843 Bharatpur 2100020 2549121 2578 2625 2672 2720 2769 Bhilwara 2020969 2410459 2435 2479 2524 2570 2616 Bikaner 1902110 2367745 2398 2441 2486 2530 2576 Bundi 962620 1113725 1123 1143 1164 1185 1207 Chittaurgarh 1330360 1544392 1558 1586 1615 1644 1673 Churu 1696039 2041172 2063 2101 2139 2177 2216 Dausa 1323002 1637226 1658 1688 1718 1749 1781 Dhaulpur 983258 1207293 1222 1244 1266 1289 1313 Dungarpur 1107643 1388906 1407 1433 1459 1485 1512 Ganganagar 1789423 1969520 1980 2016 2052 2089 2127 Hanumangarh 1518005 1779650 1796 1829 1862 1895 1929 Jaipur 5251071 6663971 6757 6879 7003 7130 7258 Jaisalmer 508247 672008 683 695 708 721 734 Jalor 1448940 1830151 1855 1889 1923 1958 1993 Jhalawar 1180323 1411327 1426 1452 1478 1505 1532 Jhunjhunun 1913689 2139658 2153 2192 2232 2272 2313 Jodhpur 2886505 3685681 3738 3806 3875 3945 4016 Karauli 1205888 1458459 1475 1501 1528 1556 1584 Kota 1568705 1950491 1975 2011 2047 2084 2122 Nagaur 2775058 3309234 3343 3404 3465 3528 3592 Pali 1820251 2038533 2052 2089 2126 2165 2204 Pratapgarh 706807 868231 879 895 911 927 944 Rajsamand 982523 1158283 1169 1191 1212 1234 1256 S.Madhopur 1117057 1338114 1352 1377 1402 1427 1453 Sikar 2287788 2677737 2702 2751 2801 2851 2903 Sirohi 851107 1037185 1049 1068 1087 1107 1127 Tonk 1211671 1421711 1435 1461 1487 1514 1541 Udaipur 2481201 3067549 3106 3162 3219 3277 3336


Table 7 : Projected Population as on 1st October from 2016 to 2021 Provisional (Contd)

STATE/ DISTRICTS

Projected as on 1st October (000)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rajasthan 75901 77272 78667 80088 81535 83007 Ajmer 2855 2907 2959 3013 3067 3123 Alwar 4064 4137 4212 4288 4366 4445 Banswara 1994 2030 2066 2104 2142 2180 Baran 1353 1377 1402 1427 1453 1479 Barmer 2895 2947 3000 3055 3110 3166 Bharatpur 2819 2870 2922 2975 3029 3083 Bhilwara 2663 2711 2760 2810 2861 2913 Bikaner 2623 2670 2718 2767 2817 2868 Bundi 1228 1250 1273 1296 1319 1343 Chittaurgarh 1704 1734 1766 1798 1830 1863 Churu 2257 2297 2339 2381 2424 2468 Dausa 1813 1846 1879 1913 1947 1983 Dhaulpur 1336 1360 1385 1410 1435 1461 Dungarpur 1539 1567 1595 1624 1653 1683 Ganganagar 2165 2204 2244 2285 2326 2368 Hanumangarh 1964 2000 2036 2073 2110 2148 Jaipur 7389 7523 7659 7797 7938 8081 Jaisalmer 747 760 774 788 802 817 Jalor 2029 2066 2103 2141 2179 2219 Jhalawar 1560 1588 1616 1646 1675 1706 Jhunjhunun 2355 2397 2441 2485 2530 2575 Jodhpur 4088 4162 4237 4314 4392 4471 Karauli 1613 1642 1672 1702 1733 1764 Kota 2160 2199 2239 2280 2321 2363 Nagaur 3656 3722 3790 3858 3928 3999 Pali 2244 2284 2325 2367 2410 2454 Pratapgarh 961 978 996 1014 1032 1051 Rajsamand 1279 1302 1326 1349 1374 1399 S.Madhopur 1479 1506 1533 1560 1589 1617 Sikar 2955 3009 3063 3118 3175 3232 Sirohi 1147 1168 1189 1211 1233 1255 Tonk 1569 1598 1627 1656 1686 1716 Udaipur 3396 3458 3520 3584 3649 3714


Table 8 : Annual Exponential, Geometric and Arithmetic Growth rates (2001-2011) (%) (Provisional)

INDIA/ RAJASTHAN/ DISTRICTS

Census 2001 Census 2011 Provisional

Annual Exponential growth rate

(2001-2011) (%)

Annual Geometric

growth rate (2001-2011) (%)

Annual Arithmetic growth rate

(2001-2011) (%)

Rajasthan 56507188 68621012 1.94 1.96 2.14

Ajmer 2178447 2584913 1.71 1.73 1.87

Alwar 2991552 3671999 2.05 2.07 2.27

Banswara 1420601 1798194 2.36 2.39 2.66

Baran 1021473 1223921 1.81 1.82 1.98

Barmer 1964835 2604453 2.82 2.86 3.26

Bharatpur 2100020 2549121 1.94 1.96 2.14

Bhilwara 2020969 2410459 1.76 1.78 1.93

Bikaner 1902110 2367745 2.19 2.21 2.45

Bundi 962620 1113725 1.46 1.47 1.57

Chittaurgarh 1330360 1544392 1.49 1.50 1.61

Churu 1696039 2041172 1.85 1.87 2.03

Dausa 1323002 1637226 2.13 2.15 2.38

Dhaulpur 983258 1207293 2.05 2.07 2.28

Dungarpur 1107643 1388906 2.26 2.29 2.54

Ganganagar 1789423 1969520 0.96 0.96 1.01

Hanumangarh 1518005 1779650 1.59 1.60 1.72

Jaipur 5251071 6663971 2.38 2.41 2.69

Jaisalmer 508247 672008 2.79 2.83 3.22

Jalor 1448940 1830151 2.34 2.36 2.63

Jhalawar 1180323 1411327 1.79 1.80 1.96

Jhunjhunun 1913689 2139658 1.12 1.12 1.18

Jodhpur 2886505 3685681 2.44 2.47 2.77

Karauli 1205888 1458459 1.90 1.92 2.09

Kota 1568705 1950491 2.18 2.20 2.43

Nagaur 2775058 3309234 1.76 1.78 1.92

Pali 1820251 2038533 1.13 1.14 1.20

Pratapgarh* 706807 868231 2.06 2.08 2.28

Rajsamand 982523 1158283 1.65 1.66 1.79

S.Madhopur 1117057 1338114 1.81 1.82 1.98

Sikar 2287788 2677737 1.57 1.59 1.70

Sirohi 851107 1037185 1.98 2.00 2.19

Tonk 1211671 1421711 1.60 1.61 1.73

Udaipur 2481201 3067549 2.12 2.14 2.36


Projection of IMR & MMR upto 2012 Based on the ten years of data on IMR from CRS and SRS from 2001 to 2010, the future level of IMR has been projected. According to the linear curve fitted to the model, the IMR of Rajasthan is projected to decline to 51 by 2012. The model has an R Square of 0.947, which means that the model explains 94.7 percent of the total variance in case of CRS data and an R Square of 0.906 in case of SRS data, which means that the model explains 87.2 percent of the total variance. The Linear Curve Fitting Equation is in the form of : Y=a(1+bt)

Figure 16: Projection of IMR : 2011-2012

80

51

11

20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LinearcurvefittingestimateofSRS LinearcurvefittingestimateofCRS

Similarly, based on the nine years of data on MMR from CRS and SRS from 2001-09, the future levels of MMR has been projected through an exponential curve fitting equation. According to the exponential curve fitted to the model, the MMR of Rajasthan is projected to decline to 272 by 2012. The increase in MMR as per CRS may be due to the fact that the reporting levels are improving though not at the expected pace. The model has an R Square of 0.992, which means that the model explains 99.2 percent of the total variance in case of CRS data and a similar R Square in case of SRS data, which means that the model explains 98.9 percent of the variance. The Exponential Curve Fitting Equation is in the form of : Y=a exp(bt)


Conversion factor for MMR has not been computed as the CRS data shows a trend opposite to SRS trend. This can be attributed to higher levels of reporting due to pressure on the reporting system to report maternal deaths.

Table 9 : CRS, SRS and Linear estimates of IMR (2011-2012)

Year SRS Linear curve fitting

estimate of SRS CRS Linear curve fitting estimate

of CRS 2001 80 - 12 - 2002 78 - 11 - 2003 75 - 9 - 2004 67 - 8 - 2005 68 - 8 - 2006 67 - 5 - 2007 65 - 6 - 2008 63 - 5 - 2009 59 - 5 - 2010 55 - 5 - 2011 - 54 - 3 2012 - 51 - 2

The CRS and SRS data are not strictly comparable as the CRS data has not been classified by the place of residence as in case of SRS. So, the estimate obtained will refer to the place of event only.

Table 10 : CRS, SRS and Exponential estimates of MMR (2010-2012)

year SRS Exponential curve

fitting estimate of SRS CRS Exponential curve fitting

estimate of CRS 2001-03 445 - 50 -

2004-06 388 - 44 -

2007-09 318 - 37 -

2010-12 - 272 -

32

The CRS and SRS data are not strictly comparable as the CRS data has not been classified by the place of residence as in case of SRS. So, the estimate obtained will refer to the place of event only. Table 11 : Conversion factors for CRS for IMR for the years 2011 & 2012 and

MMR for the period of 2010-12 Indicators Conversion Factor per live birth

(From CRS to SRS), 2011 Conversion Factor per live birth

(From CRS to SRS), 2012 IMR 0.0180 0.0255 Conversion Factor per live birth (From CRS to SRS), 2010-12 MMR 0.00009

If we use these conversion factors to the future levels of IMR computed from CRS data, we can get a fairly good estimate of IMR comparable to SRS. For example, if the IMR is 4 in CRS for 2011, the converted IMR will be 4 x 0.0180 x 1,000 = 54 per 1,000 live births and for 2012, it will be 51. If the MMR for years 2010-12 is 32 in CRS, the corresponding MMR figure will be 32 x 0.00009 x 100,000 = 272 per 100,000 live


births for the period of 2010-12. A matter of caution here is that the CRS and SRS data are not strictly comparable as the CRS data has not been classified by the place of residence as in case of SRS. So, the estimate obtained will refer to the place of event only.

Figure 17 : Projection of MMR : 2010-2012

445

272

50

32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

200103 200406 200709 201012

ExponentialcurvefittingestimateofSRS ExponentialcurvefittingestimateofCRS

These estimations have been carried out to indicate that with improved reporting and the reclassification of the events by the place of residence, reliable estimates can be obtained from CRS. Some limitations of the data quality are as follows:

1. Gross under reporting of data on infant and maternal deaths 2. Data on delayed registration could not be considered as the data is not entered

or published in this regard 3. Probability of duplication of registration of the vital events at two different

places is there 4. Identification of maternal deaths

The civil registration system for the year 2010 in Rajasthan registers more than 17 lakh births and more than 3 lakh deaths. This data is a rich source, which could be used to generate estimates of fertility and mortality below State level, upto which data is provided by SRS. But, due to the reporting issues, it is not being used to estimate vital rates. This is an attempt to estimate vital rates from this data. We hope this exercise will surely help in generating the much needed awareness to improve the level of reporting in this data, which will in turn help in generating estimates at sub-state level for use in the planning, implementation, monitoring of development programmes.


Chapter 3 : Analytical insights into Demography, Health and Education issues


Chapter 3 Analytical insights into Demography, Health and Education issues

Introduction

This chapter describes the insights into the data from different secondary sources of data like; Census 2001 and 2011 provisional, Sample Registration System (SRS), Annual Health Survey (AHS), District Level Household Survey (DLHS), National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and other administrative sources. It discusses about the outcome indicators of IMR and literacy and their relationship, the issue of population stabilization, family planning and contraceptive prevalence and the factors affecting the use of contraceptives, the status of MDGs in a nutshell, the status of the monitorable targets of 11th five year plan, 2007-12. It focuses mostly on the issues of health and education.

Analysis of the relationship between Literacy and IMR: A simple linear regression was carried out between IMR from Annual Health Survey, 2010-11, and the female literacy rate from the provisional results of Census 2011, which reveals a negative relationship between the two. With increase in female literacy, there is a decline in IMR. The regression model with the independent variable of female literacy explains 45.0 percent of the variance in the dependent variable, which in this case is the IMR. The regression equation also denotes that an increase of one unit in the female literacy rate will result in a decline of 0.671 units in the IMR and it is significant at 1 percent level of probability. This indicates that increase in female literacy may increase the likelihood in the reduction of IMR.

Table 12 : Results of Simple Linear Regression between IMR, 2007-09, AHS and Female Literacy, Census 2011 Provisional

Variables R Square*100 Standardized beta

coefficients

IMR and Female Literacy 45.0 -0.671**

The current female literacy rate of Rajasthan based on Census 2011 is the lowest amongst all the States in India. Once the woman is educated, she will be aware of the family planning methods and would be empowered to use them to reduce unwanted pregnancies and unwanted births and the risk of pregnancy related maternal deaths could be avoided. So, there is a need to focus on improvement in female literacy and reduction in IMR and MMR, which are at unacceptably high levels in the State. It is interesting to note that the district with the highest total literacy is the district with the lowest Infant Mortality Rate and vice-versa as presented below:

Table 13 : Highest and Lowest Literacy and IMR in districts of Rajasthan

District Literacy, Census 2011 IMR, AHS, 2007-09 Kota Highest (77.48%) Lowest (36 per thousand LBs) Jalore Lowest (55.58%) Highest (79 per thousand LBs) As these data are from two different sources like; Census 2011 and Annual Health Survey, both conducted by the Registrar General of India, GoI, the


inference is indicative. The status of literacy of India, Rajasthan and its districts has been presented in the following graphs: Literacy Rate in India and Rajasthan: Rajasthan fares lower than the all India level, in case of total, male and female literacy rates of Rajasthan compared to the all India average.

Figure 18 : Literacy Rates in India and Rajasthan by Gender, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

74.04

82.14

65.4667.06

80.51

52.66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Total Male Female

India Rajasthan

Source : Census of India, 2011 (Provisional)


Literacy Rate in the various States of India and Rajasthan: The total and female literacy of Kerala is highest among all the 35 States and Union territories (UTs) in India. The Union territory of Lakshadweep is highest in male literacy. Bihar is the lowest in total and male literacy rates in India, while Rajasthan fares the lowest in female literacy among all the states and UTs in India.

Figure 19 : Total Literacy Rates in India, States and Union Territories, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

93.9192.28

91.5887.7587.487.0786.5586.4386.3486.27

83.7882.9182.2

80.3380.1179.8579.6379.31

77.6577.0876.6876.64

75.675.48

74.0473.4573.18

71.0470.63

69.7268.74

67.6667.6367.0666.95

63.82

0 20 40 60 80 100

KeralaLakshadweep#

MizoramTripura

GoaDaman & Diu#

Puducherry#Chandigarh#

NCT of Delhi#Andaman & Nicobar Islands#

Himachal PradeshMaharashtra

SikkimTamil Nadu

NagalandManipur

UttarakhandGujarat

Dadra & Nagar Haveli#West Bengal

PunjabHaryana

KarnatakaMeghalaya

INDIAOrissaAssam

ChhattisgarhMadhya Pradesh

Uttar PradeshJammu & Kashmir

Andhra PradeshJharkhandRajasthan

Arunachal PradeshBihar

Source : Census of India, 2011 Provisional

#Union Territories and NCT


Figure 20 : Male Literacy Rates in India, States and Union Territories, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

96.1196.02

93.7292.8192.1892.1291.4891.0390.8390.5490.1189.82

88.3387.2987.2386.8186.4986.46

85.3883.2982.8582.6782.482.1481.4881.4580.5380.51

79.2478.8178.4578.26

77.1775.56

73.6973.39

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Lakshadweep#Kerala

MizoramGoa

TripuraPuducherry#

Daman & Diu#NCT o f Delhi#

Himachal PradeshChandigarh#

Andaman & Nicobar Islands#MaharashtraUttarakhand

SikkimGujarat

Tamil NaduManipur

Dadra & Nagar Haveli#Haryana

NagalandKarnataka

West BengalOrissaINDIAPunjab

ChhattisgarhMadhya Pradesh

RajasthanUttar Pradesh

AssamJharkhand

Jammu & KashmirMeghalaya

Andhra PradeshArunachal Pradesh

Bihar

Source : Census 2011 Provisional



Figure 21 : Female Literacy Rates in India, States and Union Territories, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

91.9889.4

88.2583.15

81.8481.8481.3881.2280.93

79.5976.6976.676.4375.48

73.8673.7873.17

71.3471.1670.7370.7

68.1367.2766.7765.9365.46

64.3660.5960.0259.7459.5759.26

58.0156.21

53.3352.66

0 20 40 60 80 100

KeralaMizoram

Lakshadweep#Tripura

GoaAndaman & Nicobar Islands#

Chandigarh#Puducherry#

NCT of Delhi#Daman & Diu#

NagalandHimachal Pradesh

SikkimMaharashtra

Tamil NaduMeghalaya

ManipurPunjab

West BengalGujarat

UttarakhandKarnataka

AssamHaryana

Dadra & Nagar Haveli#INDIAOrissa

ChhattisgarhMadhya PradeshAndhra Pradesh

Arunachal PradeshUttar Pradesh

Jammu & KashmirJharkhand

BiharRajasthan

Source : Census 2011 Provisional



Literacy Rate in the districts of Rajasthan: The total and female literacy of Kota is highest among all the 33 districts of Rajasthan. The district of Jhunjhunun is highest in male literacy. Jalor district fares the lowest in both total and female literacy among all the districts in Rajasthan, while the newly created district of Pratapgarh is lowest in male literacy.

Figure 22 : Total Literacy Rates in Rajasthan and Districts, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

77.4876.44

74.7272.98

71.6871.1670.4670.2570.14

69.1768.37

67.4667.3867.3467.0967.06

66.1965.92

64.0863.9363.2362.7462.7162.5162.4662.3162.13

60.7858.0457.4957.20

56.3056.0255.58

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00

KotaJaipur

JhunjhununSikar

AlwarBharatpur

AjmerGanganagar

DhaulpurDausa

HanumangarhChuruBaran

KarauliJodhpur

RajasthanS Madhopur

BikanerNagaur

RajsamandPali

UdaipurBhilwara

ChittaurgarhTonk

BundiJhalawar

DungarpurJaisalmer

BarmerBanswara

Pratapgarh*SirohiJalor

Source : Census 2011 Provisional, RGI, GoI


Figure 23 : Male Literacy Rates in Rajasthan and Districts, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

87.8887.6387.2786.66

85.7085.0884.5483.93

82.9682.7282.53

81.2380.5180.4679.9579.5279.3378.9078.8278.2778.1677.7477.1676.9076.5276.4775.91

74.6673.09

72.3271.83

71.0970.8070.13

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00

JhunjhununKota

JaipurSikar

BharatpurAlwarDausaAjmer

KarauliS Madhopur

DhaulpurBaran

RajasthanJodhpur

ChuruRajsamand

GanganagarNagaur

HanumangarhTonk

PaliChittaurgarh

BhilwaraBikaner

BundiJhalawarUdaipur

DungarpurJaisalmer

BarmerJalor

SirohiBanswara

Pratapgarh*



Figure 24 : Female Literacy Rates in Rajasthan and Districts, Census 2011 Provisional (%)

66.3264.63

61.1560.07

58.7656.9156.7856.42

55.4554.6354.25

53.7752.6652.5752.4852.33

49.1849.1048.6348.4448.3547.9347.80

47.0647.0046.9846.98

46.0143.47

42.4041.03

40.2340.12

38.73

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

KotaJaipur

JhunjhununGanganagar

SikarHanumangarh

AlwarAjmer

DhaulpurBharatpur

ChuruBikaner

RajasthanJodhpur

BaranDausa

KarauliUdaipurNagaur

RajsamandPali

BhilwaraS Madhopur

JhalawarBundi

ChittaurgarhDungarpur

TonkBanswara

Pratapgarh*Barmer

JaisalmerSirohiJalor


Family Planning and Contraceptive Prevalence Rate India is the one of the first countries in the world to adopt a family planning programme way back in 1951. But it has yet to achieve net replacement levels of fertility in all states. Family planning in India has also undergone several transformations. It started with a target approach, which was criticized a lot giving way to the Community Needs Assessments (CNA) approach. ICPD in 1994 and the Beijing Womens Conference in 1995 have also catalyzed this process of policy change. In 1996, the government took the radical decision of abolishing method-specific contraceptive targets, replacing it with what was initially called the Target-free Approach, where


health workers case loads would be determined by needs identified at the community level, rather than centrally-assigned. In 1997, to avoid misconceptions and to direct the programme more towards addressing clients needs, the Target-free Approach was renamed as the CNA Approach. With regards to knowledge of contraceptive methods, the knowledge of spacing methods is lower than the knowledge of terminal methods of contraception. The contraceptive prevalence rate for any method at the national level is 56 percent according to NFHS-3, 2005-06. According to the same survey, the contraceptive prevalence rate for any method was 47 percent. According to the third District Level Household Survey (2007-08), the percentage of women currently using any contraceptive method has shown an increase to 58.0 percent. The contraceptive prevalence rate for any method in the State has shown an absolute increase of 25 percent in a period of about 16 years from 1992-93 to 2007-08 (NFHS-1, 2, & 3, 1992-2006 and DLHS-3, 2007-08). The absolute increase in case of any modern method from 1992-93 to 2007-08 is 23 percent (NFHS-1, 2, & 3, 1992-2006 and DLHS-3, 2007-08). According to the goal of Rajasthan Population Policy 1999, it has been projected that Rajasthan will achieve a Contraceptive Prevalence Rate of 68.0 percent by 2016. This is one of the most important aspects which need to be looked into considering the high TFR of Rajasthan (3.3, SRS, 2009) and rapid population growth, which is pulling down the impact of developmental activities. Contraception not only helps in curbing rapid population growth, it also helps to reduce unwanted pregnancies through family planning, which in turn will reduce the risk caused by pregnancy related maternal deaths. The contraceptive prevalence is computed as follows:

Contraceptive Method Mix : The contraceptive method mix in the state is in favour of the limiting or terminal methods similar to the all India level. According to the third District Level Household Survey (DLHS-3), 2007-08, the percentage of female sterilization is 43 percent. The percentage of spacing method of pills, IUD and condom are 3 percent, 1 percent and 8 percent respectively.

Unmet need for Family Planning2 : According to the District Level Household Survey (DLHS-3), 2007-08, the unmet need for both spacing and limiting is 17.9

2 Definition I: Unmet need for spacing includes the proportion of currently married women who are neither in menopause or had hysterectomy nor are currently pregnant who want more children after two years or later and are currently not using any family planning method. The women who are not sure about whether and when to have next child are also included .Unmet need for limiting includes the proportion of currently married women who are neither in menopause or had hysterectomy nor are currently pregnant and do not want any more children but are currently not using any family planning method(These definitions are same as DLHS-2). Definition II: Unmet need for spacing includes fecund women who are neither pregnant nor amenorrhoeic, who are not using any method of family planning, and say they want to wait two or more years for their next birth. It also includes fecund women who are not using any method of family planning, and say they are unsure whether they want another child or who want another


percent according to the definition I, which has declined from 22.1 percent during DLHS-2, 2002-04, with a little higher unmet need in the rural areas (18.5 Percent) compared to 15.3 percent in the urban areas. The unmet need for limiting methods is 10.2 percent and 7.7 percent for spacing methods. District-wise, the total unmet need for family planning varies from 8.7 in Banswara to 31.4 percent in Dholpur according to DLHS-3, 2007-08. With regards to the unmet need for limiting, it varies from 4.6 percent in Banswara to 20.7 percent in Dholpur. In case of the unmet need for spacing, it varies from a low of 3.2 percent in Ganganagar to 10.7 percent in Dholpur. According to the definition II, the total unmet need is 11.4 percent, which is comparable to the definition in NFHS-3. So, according to this the unmet need has also decreased from 15 percent during NFHS-3, 2005-06 to 11 percent during DLHS-3, 2007-08. The unmet need is computed as follows:

child but are unsure when to have the birth. Unmet need for limiting includes fecund women who are neither pregnant nor amenorrhoeic, who are not using any method of family planning, and who want no more children (These definitions are similar to NFHS-3).


Factors influencing contraceptive use furthering population stabilization In order to arrive at the factors affecting contraceptive use among the currently married women in Rajasthan, a multivariate analysis was performed in SPSS software. It was carried out to control for the effects of other correlated factors, as results from bivariate analyses could be thoroughly misleading. For example, contraceptive use could be higher in urban areas not because the type of place of residence has something to do with contraceptive use, but because urbanites are more educated and have a higher standard of living. So, in order to arrive at the true significance of each factor independently keeping all other at their mean values, it is necessary to control or nullify the effects of other factors. In this way, multivariate analyses helps to separate out the independent effect of a factor from the effects of other correlated factors or covariates. For analysis purpose, a sample of respondents was selected from the two states of those who are either currently using condom or those who are not using any contraceptive method amongst currently married woman. So, as the dependent variable is categorical and dichotomous in nature with two categories; non-use of any contraceptive method=0 and current use of any contraceptive=1, Binomial or Binary Logistic regression was carried out to explore factors influencing or enabling condom use. Logistic regression can be used to predict a dependent variable on the basis of independent variables and to determine the percent of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independents; to rank the relative importance of independents; to assess interaction effects; and to understand the impact of covariates. The logit model can be expressed as:

p is the probability that the event Y occurs, p(Y=1) p/(1-p) is the odds ratio ln[p/(1-p)] is the log odds ratio, or logit 1, 2, i here refers to beta coefficients. X1, X2, Xi here refers to the independent variables. e is the error term Interpretation of bi

o Increase in log-odds for a one unit increase in Xi with all the other Xis constant

o Measures association between Xi and log-odds adjusted for all other Xi

The Binary Logistic Regression analysis of Rajasthan NFHS-3, 2005-06 data also reveals that those who watch family planning messages on TV have a 1.450 times higher likelihood of using a method of family planning (See table 14, data analysed by the author). The other significant factors determining the likelihood of current use of contraception are the womans current and previous residence, work status, wealth quintile and whether the living child is male or female. Those who are staying in urban areas, working currently and those who belong to higher wealth quintiles denoted by the possession of certain assets have a higher likelihood of using a method of family planning after controlling for other socio-demographic background characteristics. It is interesting to note that those who have a living male child are likely to use contraception compared to those who have a female living child. That means those who have a male child are less likely to go for further children, while those who have a female child, are more likely to go for children indicating son preference. The overall

e++++=

ii2211 x ... x xP-1

P ln


model alongwith the independent variables considered, explain 35.5 percent of the variance in the dependent variable.

Table 14 : Odds Ratios from Multivariate Binary Logistic Regression Analysis of

the likelihood of contraceptive use among currently married women in the reproductive age of 15-49 years, Rajasthan (NFHS-3, 2005-06)

Dependent Variable : Current use of Contraception (0= non use and 1 = current use) N=3,044

Covariates Categories Odds Ratios (CI) Background - Community Level

Current Residence 0 for Rural 1 for Urban 1.788** (CI : 1.380 - 2.317) Previous Residence 0 for countryside 1 for City/ town 1.391** (CI : 1.087 - 1.780) Background - Household Level

Wealth Index 0 for Poorest 1 for Poorer 2 for Middle 3 for Wealthier 4 for Wealthiest

1.589** (CI : 1.206 2.094)

1.671** (CI : 1.281 2.179) 1.758** (CI : 1.289 2.397) 2.311** (CI : 1.578 3.383)

Religion 0 for Hindu 1 for Muslim 0.552** (CI : 0.415 - 0.736) 2 for Other Religions 1.383 (CI : 0.607 3.152) Background - Individual Level

Demographic If the male child is alive 0 for son is dead 1 for son is alive 11.934** (CI : 9.133 15.593) If the female child is alive 0 for daughter is dead 1 for daug

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