Demography & Population

APES Ch 7

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Two Demographic Worlds

Developing countries are poor (15%), young, and rapidly growing. India, China, Bolivia (S. America), Congo (Africa)

Contain 81% of world population, and will account for 90% of projected growth.

Incomes of 3$/person/day and less

Developed countries are wealthy (85%), old, and mostly shrinking. United States, Japan, France

Populations often expected to decline.

Developing Countries

Developing countries tend to have severe overpopulation. This leads to:

Deforestation

Bare soil

Native animals driven to extinction

Malnutrition, starvation, disease

About 81% of the world’s population falls in this category

Only use 12-25% of the world’s resources

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Developed Countries

Developed countries, while smaller in size and growth, consume resources at a greater rate.

About 19% of the world’s population uses 88% of its resources. Creating 75% if the world’s waste.

Higher life expectancy, wealth, energy use, pollution and waste.

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Developing and Developed Countries

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Source: Holt Environmental Science, Arms, 2007

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Estimated Human Population Growth

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Measurements of Population Growth

Birth Rates - Number of births per 1000 women per year.

Developing countries = ~20

Developed countries = ~10

Total Fertility Rate –

Congo = 4.41 (developing)

India = 2.68 (developing)

U.S. = 2.1 (developed)

The replacement level is when you have 2.1 – 2.5 children per couple.

Theory of Demographic Transition

A four phase process that describes the transition of a country as it moves from a subsistence economy to industrialization and increased affluence, it undergoes a predictable shift in population growth. Phase 1: Slow Population Growth

Phase 2: Rapid Population Growth

Phase 3: Stable Population Growth

Phase 4: Declining Population Growth

Phase 1 – Slow Growth

Phase 1 (Pre-industrial):

Steady state – population will not change quickly

High birth & death rates (match each other)

Short life expectancy is short due to difficult and dangerous working conditions

High Infant mortality rate due to disease, lack of health care, & poor sanitation

Children are an asset – do jobs for family

Lesotho is in Phase 1 due to HIV/AIDS

Phase 2 – Rapid Growth

Phase 2 – Transitional Death rates decline while birth rates remain

high

CBR remains high due to population momentum as families still have many children & lag time to implement education & birth control measures.

Better sanitation, clean drinking water, increased access to food & health care reduce infant mortality rate CDR.

India is in phase 2 today

Phase 3 - Stable

Phase 3 – Industrial

Economy & educational systems improve

Family income increases; have fewer children & CBR falls

Having large numbers of children becomes a financial burden but cultural, societal, and religious norms may play a part

Both CBR and CDR decrease & population growth levels off.

USA and Canada are Phase 3

Phase 4 - Declining

Phase 4 – Post Industrial Declining population, high level of affluence

& economic development

Higher proportion of elderly people. Few people in labor force, pension programs, social security puts a tax burden on the working population

Japan, UK, Germany, Russia, and Italy are in phase 4

TFR increases after hitting a low. Such patterns can be seen in Norway, Italy, & US

Family Planning

Fertility rates decrease when:

Family income increases

Higher levels of education/affluence. Especially among females.

Delaying first pregnancy till older

Why?

Delay having children due to demands of school & work

Better access to birth control

Interact with partners as equals

Family planning – regulate the number and spacing of offspring

Family Planning

Effective family planning campaigns:

Kenya in 1970’s reduced TFR by half (from 8 to 4) in the 1990’s

Gov’t encouraged smaller families appealing to the idea that overpopulation lead to unemployment and use of condoms.

Thailand in 1970’s gov’t encouraged couples to practice birth control

Contraceptive use increased from 15 to 70% w/in 15 years

Growth rate fell from 3.2 to 1.6%; today rate is 0.6%

Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates

Advantages of Family Planning:

Increase the proportion of married women in developing countries who use birth control

50% drop in TFR since 1950

Reducing the number of legal and illegal abortions

Decreasing the risk of death form pregnancy

Unfortunately,

42% of all pregnancies in LDC’s are unplanned and 26% end in abortion.

Many women, 250-350 million, want to limit the number and determine the spacing of their children, but they lack access to services.

Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates

Future Goals:

Expanding family planning to include teenagers and sexually active unmarried women who are often excluded.

Pro-choice and pro-life groups to join forces in greatly reducing unplanned births and abortions, especially among teenagers

Programs to educate men about having fewer children and taking more responsibility for raising them

Increased research on developing new, more effective, and more acceptable birth control methods for men

Empowering Women to Reduce Birth Rates

Women tend to have fewer children when they have access to education and jobs outside the home and live in societies in which their rights are not suppressed.

Most analysts believe that women everywhere should have full legal rights and opportunity to become educated and earn income outside the home.

Not possible without a great deal of social changes in many of the male-dominated societies of today.

Population & the Environment

Population & economic development are not equally distributed around the world thus, human impact on natural resources are also unequally distributed.

People in developed countries may have 2 to 10 times the environmental impact as people in developing countries

Population disparity between rich & poor has accelerated in recent years

9 of the 12 most populous nations are developing countries

Populations of impoverished countries are increasing rapidly while affluent countries are stable or declining

Ecological footprint measures the effect of affluence (money, goods, property) on the planet. Measured in hectares.

The IPAT Equation

To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth, environmental scientists developed the IPAT Equation:

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

IPAT Equation Conceptual representation of the factors that

influence environmental impact:

Population – straightforward effect on impact. Two people consume more than one

Affluence – not straightforward effect on impact. The more affluent a society is, the higher the environmental impact.

Technology – complicated; can either degrade an environment or create solutions to minimize impact.

CFC’s = safe & effective refrigeration but destroyed ozone

Electric cars reduce impact on environment

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Blue Print for sustainable development:

Completed in 2005 at request from UN

Global analysis of the effects of human population on ecosystem services such as clean water, forest products, and natural resources

Conclusions:

Human demand for ecosystem services led to a large and irreversible loss of biodiversity

Ecosystem sustainability threatened in population continues along current path

If we establish sustainable practices, we may be able to improve standard of living for a large number of people