Demographics – Hope Lutheran High School, WinonaKurt Fuhr, Vice President, LCEF

Sept. 2015

Minnesota South District

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Demographics…Who?…How?...

LCEF uses Mission Insite, a national vendor of demographic data and servicesMission Insite uses:

City, county, state and government recordsCensus data, housing informationExperian recordsCredit card receipts, and any other public information…

This data is continually compiled and updated for accuracy

Demographics…What?...

A service provided to congregations by LCEFNot the answers, but information about your congregation and community that includes:

Age and ethnic distributionsIncome levels and population projectionsDemographic “people group” profilesMinistry Clues for outreach

Are We Missing Whole Generations in the LCMS?

Are We Missing Whole Generations in the LCMS?

In the past thirty years, we have declined by almost 500,000 baptized members.

Only fifty percent of the children baptized in LCMS congregations are confirmed in LCMS congregations.

Only half of those confirmed are active at age twenty-one.

Congregations of our church body in the LCMS are closing every week.

President Emeritus KieschnickLutheran Church - Missouri Synod

Winona – Custom Boundary

Age Observations (Custom Boundary)2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039Skewed to younger age groups…college influence:

Children…ages 0-21 (34%)Kids 0-4 = 5%, Kids 5-13 = 7%, Kids 14-21 = 22%

Gen Y / Gen. X…ages 22-44 (31%)Gen Y/Young X’ers 22-34 = 22%, Gen X’ers 35-44 = 9%

Baby Boomers…ages 45-64 (21%)Younger 45-54 = 10%, Older 55-64 = 11%

Seniors…ages 65+ (14%)Younger 65-74 = 7%, Older 75+ = 7%

Median Age = 29 years…U.S. = 36…MN = 37

Age Observations (custom boundary)

0-21 Yrs.34%

22-44 Yrs.31%

45-64 Yrs.21%

65+ Yrs.14%

Age Distribution

0-21 Yrs. 22-44 Yrs. 45-64 Yrs. 65+ Yrs.

Age Observations (0-21 ages)

Ages 0-415%

Ages 5-1321%

Ages 14-179%

Ages 18-2156%

34% of population

Ages 0-4Ages 5-13Ages 14-17

Income Observations (custom boundary)

2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039> $75,000 household income = 26%

$100,000+ household incomes = 14%$75,000 - $99,999 household incomes = 12%

>$35,000 - $74,999 household income = 32%$50,000 - $74,999 household incomes = 18%$35,000 - $49,999 household incomes = 14%

< $35,000 household incomes = 42%$25,000 - $34,999 household incomes = 11%$15,000 - $24,999 household incomes = 13%< $15,000 household income = 18%

Custom Boundary median household income = $43,203

18% lower than U.S. household median income of $52,50028% lower than MN household median income of $60,21051% are 2 worker families (49% in MN)

Income Observations (custom boundary)

< $35,000

42%

$35,000 -

$74,99932%

> $75,000

26%

Income Distribution

< $35,000 $35,000 - $74,999 > $75,000

2020 Pop. Growth (custom boundary)2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039+.9% increase in the 5 mile radius to 2020U.S. population growth average of 5.1%Custom Boundary population figures:

2000 population of 32,0872010 population of 32,738 (+2% since 2000)2015 estimated of 33,039 (+.9% since 2010)2020 projected to 33,065 (+.08% from 2015)

1 of 3 are un-churched in the MN South District

+10,900 who don’t know Christ within custom boundary!

Demographic Profile – Custom Boundary 2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039 38% married couples (52% in U.S.)…48% never married 29% have Bachelor or Graduate degrees (28% in U.S., and 32% in MN) Kids…Nursery through High School: 3,942 total

Nurs./Preschool…7% (292) K-8…61% (2,414)HS…32% (1,236)

68% of households are 1-2 persons…24% are 3-4 people 92% White (34% Germ., 13% Scand.), 2.7% Asian (32% Hmong, 20% Chinese), 1.8% Hispanic (70% Mexican), 1.7% Black 13,390 housing units… 63% 1 unit det., 16% 3-19 unit, 8% 20-50 unit, 5% 2 un. 63% owner occupied homes… 37% renters 38% of housing built < 1939, 24% from 1960-79, 21% from 1980 30% are executive, professional, and manager jobs 27% are technical, sales, and service positions 43% are production, transportation, farming and laborer jobs 78% commute (drive) alone… 10% walked 84% < 20 min. commute

Mosaic Segments

Overall data is the big picture… Mosaic Segments, the “people groups”

are the detailed drill down Total of 71 demographics segments

Mosaic Groups and Segments “Family Tree”

Demographic Segments in the Custom Boundary

Groups and Segments are “A” through “S”, in descending order based on affluence

Top 5 Segments in the custom boundary… 51% of the households:

J36 “Settled and Sensible” = 19%2,434 hh’sM45 “Diapers and Debit Cards” = 9%1,084 hh’sO53 “Colleges and Cafes” = 8%1,079 hh’sQ64 “Town Elders” = 8% 987 hh’sN64 “True Grit Americans” = 7% 862 hh’s

Demographic Segments in the Custom Boundary

Segment Description Ages Children Education Work IncomeJ36 – Settled and Sensible

Older, middle-class and empty nesting couples and singles in city neighborhoods

50-75 Empty Nest

High School Blue Collar or Retired

$35,000 - $75,000

M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards

Young working class families and single parent households living in small established city residences

20-35 Yes, younger kids

Some College Blue Collar, to Sales/Svcs.

$35,000 - $75,000

O53 – Colleges and Cafes Young singles and recent college graduates living in college communities

20-35 Few, some single moms

College + Graduate Degree

Sales/Svcs. to White Collar

$20,000 - $35,000

Q64 – Town Elders Stable minimalist seniors living in older residences and living sedentary lifestyles

65+ Empty Nest

High School Retired $15,000 - $35,000

N46 – True Grit Americans

Older middle-class households in town and country communities located in the nation’s midsection

50-65 Empty Nest

Some College Blue Collar or Retired

$25,000 - $50,000

M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – ProfileYoung working-class families and single parent households

living in small established city residences

M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – ProfileYoung working-class families and single parent households

living in small established city residences

M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – ProfileYoung working-class families and single parent households

living in small established city residences

M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – ProfileYoung working-class families and single parent households

living in small established city residences

Discussion Thoughts and Next Steps

34% of the population are ages 0-21 65% of the population are under age 44 Younger population is of course skewed

by presence of the colleges

Next Steps for High School

41 enrolled in 2014/2015 Numbers for 2015/2016 and beyond… Building and location plans…

It’s About Jesus

Though I am free and belong to no man, I make myself a slave to everyone, to

win as many as possible…I have become all things to all men so that by all possible means I might save some.

I Corinthians 9: 19, 22b