Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas,...

34
@TexasDemography Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas Texas Education and Workforce Summit Austin, Texas August 19, 2016

Transcript of Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas,...

Page 1: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

@TexasDemography

Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas

Texas Education and Workforce Summit

Austin, Texas

August 19, 2016

Page 2: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Growing States, 2000-2015

2

2000

Population

2010

Population

2015

Population

Numeric

Change

2010-2015

Percent

Change

2000-2010

United States281,421,906 308,745,538 321,418,820 12,673,282 4.1%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 27,469,114 2,323,553 9.2%

California33,871,648 37,253,956 39,144,818 1,890,862 5.1%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,271,272 1,469,962 7.8%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,214,860 527,207 5.4%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,042,802 507,319 5.3%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 6,828,065 436,048 6.8%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2015 Population Estimates.

Page 3: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates3

Page 4: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

tl_2010_48_county10

POPESTIMATE2015

112 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,538,028

Page 5: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

99 counties lost

population over the

five year period.

tl_2010_48_county10

NPOPCH1015

-1,913 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 444,952

Page 6: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

tl_2010_48_county10

PctPOPCH1015

-14.9% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 36.6%

Page 7: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Migration

Natural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 5

Page 8: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

U.S. Rank

Population

Change

Population

Change

Percent of

Change from

Natural

Increase

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent of

Migration

that is

international

Harris County 1 90,451 48.8% 51.2% 63.2%

Bexar County 5 37,479 42.8% 57.2% 29.0%

Tarrant County 6 36,152 47.6% 52.4% 37.5%

Dallas County 9 33,760 67.0% 33.0% 122.3%*

Fort Bend County 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 20.8%

Collin County 14 28,075 25.7% 74.3% 21.0%

Denton County 16 25,820 25.9% 74.1% 15.7%

Travis County 17 25,562 42.3% 57.7% 39.8%

Williamson County 27 19,086 20.1% 79.9% 8.5%

Montgomery County 29 18,505 20.8% 79.2% 12.2%*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period.

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2014-2015

9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates.

Page 9: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015

U.S.

Rank

2014-2015 Percent

Population Change

Percent Change

from Migration

Percent of Migration

that is International

Hays County 4 5.2% 86.4% 2.2%

Comal County 7 4.5% 90.5% 2.3%

Fort Bend County 9 4.3% 79.3% 20.8%

Kendall County 12 4.2% 102.9% 3.6%

Gaines County 13 4.0% 62.8% 7.8%

Waller County 14 4.0% 79.2% 2.7%

Williamson County 16 3.9% 79.9% 8.5%

Andrews County 19 3.7% 61.1% 4.8%

Rockwall County 20 3.7% 85.3% 5.0%

Montgomery County 23 3.6% 79.2% 12.2%

Denton County 25 3.4% 74.1% 15.7%

Ector County 36 3.3% 63.7% 5.0%

Midland County 37 3.3% 69.2% 4.8%

Collin County 42 3.2% 74.3% 21.0%

Kaufman County 46 3.1% 78.3% 3.9%

Bastrop County 48 3.0% 79.4% 3.0%*Among counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014

8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates.

Page 10: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates 11

NH White, 53%

NH Black, 11%

NH Asian, 3%

NH Other, 1%

Hispanic, 32%

2000

NH White, 43%

NH Black, 12%

NH Asian, 5%

NH Other, 2%

Hispanic, 39%

2015

NH White, 45%

NH Black, 12%

NH Asian, 4%

NH Other, 2%

Hispanic, 38%

2010

Page 11: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of the Population that is Asian, Texas Counties, 2014

11

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Franklin

Hunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

PctNHAsian

0% - 0.5%

0.6% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 17.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates.

Page 12: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of the Population that is Black, Texas Counties, 2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Franklin

Hunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

12

tl_2010_48_county10

PctNHBlack

0% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 15%

15.1% - 33.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates.

Page 13: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of the Population that is Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Franklin

Hunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

13

tl_2010_48_county10

PctHisp

2.2% - 15%

15.1% - 30%

30.1% - 50%

50.1% - 70%

70.1% - 98.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates.

Page 14: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

14Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 15: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

15

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Page 16: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic

16

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Page 17: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic

Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic

17

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Page 18: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

18Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Page 19: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Estimates

Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015

19Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Page 20: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

14

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

Under 18

18 to 64

65+

Censuses Estimates Projections

20

Population Change by Age Group, Texas, 1950-2050

Sources: US Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Censuses

US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates

Texas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

Page 21: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-White

NH-Black

Hispanic

NH-Other

21Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Page 22: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2010, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference

9.3%

4.4%5.2%

9.9%

4.4%

2.1% 2.3%

5.3%

4.1%

3.0%

9.9%

4.7%5.3%

10.2%

5.3%

2.2% 2.3%

5.7%

4.2%3.4%

0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%0.9%

0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2008 2010 2014 Difference 2014-2008

22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014

Page 23: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2010, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference

2.3%

5.3%4.1%

3.0%

25.6%

0.5%

7.7%

3.9%

12.3%

2.3%

5.7%4.2% 3.4%

24.0%

0.4%

6.8%

3.5%

12.0%

0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%

-1.6%-0.1% -0.9% -0.4% -0.3%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2008 2010 2014 Difference 2014-2008

23Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014

Page 24: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2010, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference

9.9%10.2%

0.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Education, legal, community service, arts, and media occupations:

2008 2010 2014 Difference 2014-2008

24Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014

Page 25: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of the Population Aged 25 Years and Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, Texas Counties, 2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Franklin

Hunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

25

tl_2010_48_county10

PctBachPlus

5.1% - 15%

15.1% - 20%

20.1% - 25%

25.1% - 30%

30.1% - 49.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2014

Page 26: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008-2015

20.4% 18.9%17.6%

25.4% 25.5%25.3%

28.8% 29.1%28.7%

17.1% 17.7% 18.7%

8.3% 8.7% 9.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Perc

ent

Year

Graduate or ProfessionalDegree

Bachelor Degree

Some College or AssociateDegree

High School or Equivelent

Less than High School

26Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

Page 27: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

11.8% 12.2%6.7%

36.5% 33.6%

29.6%

14.2% 23.9%

27.6%27.5%

36.3%

15.9%

32.2%

22.7%24.0%

22.4%

57.7%

37.2%

13.2% 15.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black Asian Non-HispanicWhite

Hispanic All Other

Bachelor, Graduate,Professional Degree

Some College or AssociateDegree

High School or Equivelant

Less than High School

27

Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2015

Page 28: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Page 29: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,

Texas

29

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Perc

ent

of

the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or

Forc

e

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.

Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Page 30: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended

Rates, Texas

30

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Perc

ent

of

the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or

Forc

e

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.

Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Page 31: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates, the U.S. and select states, 2014

Area RankBirth Rate Per 1,000 Women

UnitedStates 24.2Arkansas 1 39.5Oklahoma 2 38.5Mississippi 3 38.0New Mexico 4 37.8

Texas 5 37.8West Virginia 6 36.6Louisiana 7 35.8Kentucky 8 35.3Tennessee 9 33.0Alabama 10 32.0Wyoming 11 30.1Arizona 12 29.9South Carolina 13 28.5Nevada 14 28.5District of Columbia 15 28.4

31Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Page 32: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Adult Obesity

32Source: http://stateofobesity.org/files/stateofobesity2015.pdf

Page 33: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

33Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections

Page 34: Demographics, Education and Workforce in Texas...Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent

Contact

Office: (210) 458-6530

Email: [email protected]

Internet: demographics.texas.gov

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography

34