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Demographics and China's New Normal
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Transcript of Demographics and China's New Normal
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Demographics andChinas New Normal
Wang Feng
November 17, 2014
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Chinas New Normal:
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Challenges o' a $lower (row"h
)ra
China is coming to an end with its
hyper economic growth, with
growth rate dropping from over
10% to below 8% in the last fewyears
Government revenue, which was
growing at a rate almost twice of
the economy, has shown an even
more precipitous drop
Slow growth in economy and
especially government revenue
could pose further challenges to
social welfare programs and public
transfer
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(ason and !ang "00#$
*he Demographic Fac"or:Congr&ence o' *wo +ooms
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)conomic (row"hdemographic dividend: divergen" pa"hs-
(ason and !ang "00#, !ang and ason "008$
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. New Demographic )ra .ge. New Demographic )ra .ge
$"r&c"&re, 1/2, 2010, 2040-$"r&c"&re, 1/2, 2010, 2040-
#
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!"#! $
&' #&"
( %
!%
) %
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&' %
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&) #( ( %
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&$*& &$*) &$*+ &$$( &$$, &$$' &$$$ !( ( ! ! ( ( " ! ( ( *
!"#$%&'"(%)'*+)"'%,-(./0'
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- . / 012%34%562789 : 23; 78%
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9/26ooing ahead: 3ear (D5
G& per capita when population aged ') reach *%, in 1**0 +nternational Geary
-hamis dollar. Source/ addison "010.
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(row"h %a"e a'"er 206
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ooing ahead: op&la"ion .gingwhen (D5 %eached 206 o' 8$
evel
G& per capita when population aged ') reach *%, in 1**0 +nternational Geary
-hamis dollar. Source/ addison "010.
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Demographic $"ar"ing ines:.ging a'"er %eaching iddle@ncome $"a"&s
ear reaching iddle +ncome Status/ 2apan 1*'0, 3aiwan 1*#, S. -orea 1*80, China "00'
0.00##
2.00##
4.00##
6.00##
8.00##
10.00##
12.00##
14.00##
16.00##
0 1 2#3 4#5 6#7 8 9#10#11 12 13#14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Jaa
.#a
a
aa#
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*aiwans Decades o' $low (row"h
4ast time growth rate over '% was 1*8*, ')% at '%.
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;apans Decades o' $"agna"ion
0.00##
5.00##
10.00##
15.00##
20.00##
25.00##
'0.10#
'0.05#
0.00#
0.05#
0.10#
0.15#
1962# 1967# 1972# 1977# 1982# 1987# 1992# 1997# 2002# 2007#
Popula'on)Aging)
onoi)o)
-# #65+#
4ast time growth rate at 8% was 1*#5, ')% at #.%. 6nly one year since then G&
growth was above '%. 2apan7s %') in 1**0/ 1"%, China will reach this level by "01*.
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$A =oreas *raBec"or#
0.00%$
2.00%$
4.00%$
6.00%$
8.00%$
10.00%$
12.00%$
*8.00%$
*6.00%$*4.00%$
*2.00%$
0.00%$
2.00%$
4.00%$
6.00%$
8.00%$
10.00%$
12.00%$
1980$1983$1986$1989$1992$1995$1998$2001$2004$2007$
Aging
P
-$ $65+$
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Wh# $ho&ld ow Fer"ili"#5.ginga""er
abor 'orce row"h
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Changing abor $&ppl#
Total size(20!9"rea#hes aplateau$ moderate
in#rease in thene%t 10 years
&oun' labor (202" rea#hed peak
and will de#lineby nearly 20) inthe ne%t one and1*+ in the ne%ttwo de#ades
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ace o' .ging, $elec"ed Co&n"ries
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ld be'ore %ich, China and i"sNeighbors
G& per capita when population aged ') reach *%, in 1**0 +nternational Geary
-hamis dollar. Source/ addison "010.
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! "! #
$"! #
%"!#
&"! #
' "!#
( "! #
) "! #
*"! #
+"! #
%! ! ! %! $! # %! %! %! &! # %! ' ! %! ( !#
, -. /01 23440. 5670. 8906.
Declining $&ppor" %a"ioN&mber o' woring persons per 90, China ando"her +%@C economies-
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Fragile Familiesshare o' women aged
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Changes in Ca&ses o' Dea"h, 1//0!2011
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New $o&rces o' (row"h: Chinas*hree 8rbaniEa"ions
! "#"$%
' ! #( ) %
!"#$*%
( *#**%&
+*#**%&
' *#** %&
! *#**%&
$*#**%&
, *#** %&
) *#**%&
. / 012/ 34&56789: ; 63
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New $o&rces o' (row"h: igher)d&ca"ion )Gpansion6 college ed&ca"ed and above-
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(row"h in "he las" "hir"# #ears has been basedon a heavil# ph#sical capi"al and labor in"ensive
model @n"ernal cons"rain"s cos"s-: reso&rces,
environmen", and ineH&ali"# )G"ernal cons"rain"s: eGpor" mare", reso&rces . new model reH&ires grow"h o' domes"ic
cons&mp"ion and mare" and a cleaner
econom# "ha" is based on h&man capi"al
deepening .ging pop&la"ion: labor, cons&mp"ion, savings
and governmen" spending