Demographic Update - Fulshear, Texas Dev/Demographic Reports/2018/FINAL F… · 1-bedroom...

City of FulshearDemographic Update

Spring 2018

Monthly Employment ChangeHouston Metro, Seasonally Adjusted

Population and Survey Analysts2Spring 2018 City of Fulshear Demographic Update

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000M

ay-1

2

Aug-

12

Nov

-12

Feb-

13

May

-13

Aug-

13

Nov

-13

Feb-

14

May

-14

Aug-

14

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

May

-15

Aug-

15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Aug-

16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug-

17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

JOBS

MONTH

Employment Change (Non-Farm)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Annual Population ChangeHouston Metro


-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

POPU

LATI

ON C

HAN

GE

YEARPopulation Change Domestic MigrationInternational Migration Natural Change

0 -0 0 0 -0 0- 0 0 0 0 CV 0

--0 0 ...., -0 0-0-, n...., ,a a ..0-, o..--" '"" 0- 0 0 ~ 0 0 ~ 0 9 C

-d

Annual Population ChangeFort Bend County


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

POPU

LATI

ON C

HAN

GE

YEARPopulation Change Domestic MigrationInternational Migration Natural Change

C ,-() C

C Ch -- ...0-,. C er '"v".--0 -~ 0- 0 0 0 -0 0 =0 CV

~..c 0 CY'

ACS 2016: Foreign-Born Population


Census Tracts

Pct. Foreign Born

- 0.0% - 10.0% Ll 10.1%-20.0%

ACS 2016: Foreign-Born, Entry After 2010


Census Tracts

Foreign Born Pop.

- 0% - 2%

LJ 3%-4%

==:] 5%-6%

- 7% - 8% - >8%

ACS 2016: Age 25+ with a Bachelor’s Degree


Demographic Characteristics

Population and Survey Analysts8

34.4Median AgeHouston Metro 34.2

63.9%

Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Houston Metro32%

Median Household Income

$167,708Houston Metro $61,708

26.2%

PopulationAges 5–17

Houston Metro 19%

39.4Mean Travel Time to Work Houston Metro30.0 minutes

City of Fulshear

Spring 2018 City of Fulshear Demographic Update

In 2015: Fulshear = 37.4; Metro = 30.2

U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2016

In 2015: Fulshear = 58.7%; Metro = 30.6%

In 2015: Fulshear = 35.2; Metro = 34.1

In 2015: Fulshear = $175,990; Metro = $61,465

•


Study Area

City Limits

ETJ

Adjacent Areas Outside any City’s

ETJ


I-10

CJ City Limits ~ ETJ

D Outside ET J

Housing and Economic Growth


Master Planned Communities south of I-10 are showing signs of growth acceleration Post-Harvey flood plain regs. (Harris Co.) Reservoir Flood Migration Energy Sector rebound Katy ISD south of I-10 nearing build-out

Westpark Tollway Expansion W. Grand Parkway – more lanes coming Industrial Development Amazon, Goya Pintail Crossing: 2.2 million sq. ft., 150 ac. Twinwood Business Park: 650 ac.

New Housing Growth


Record May 2018 sales in Cross Creek Cinco Ranch is basically built out Lamar CISD schools are pushing sales up

Polo Ranch & Fulshear Lakes Other Major developers are looking for land Harrison Tracts/”Fulshear Farms” Kingsland Heights – 462 lots LID 21 is in the planning stage

4,626 acres known as Foster Farms ~3,150 developable acres exists behind future levee Recent flooding events will likely delay a project here

Most Active Residential DevelopmentsProjected Housing Occupancies


SINGLEFAMILY

MULTI-FAMILY

Five Largest Single-Family Developments 2017-2022 2022-2027 2017-2027Tamarron 2,049 2,311 4,360 Cross Creek Ranch 2,095 1,022 3,117 Jordan Ranch 1,056 1,369 2,425 Harrison Interests Tract 140 1,420 1,560 Fulshear Farms 235 1,080 1,315 Total Projected New Single-Family Occupancies

6,776 11,661 18,899

Five Largest Multi-Family Developments 2017-2022 2022-2027 2017-2027Cross Creek Ranch (PU H19/H20) 175 450 625Jordan Ranch MF 25 360 385Park Lane Fulshear (Cross Creek) 280 100 380Potential MF in PU B03 25 325 350Point West 0 225 225Total Projected New Multi-Family Occupancies

580 1,735 2,315

Sheet1

Five Largest Single-Family Developments2017-20222022-20272017-2027

Tamarron2,0492,3114,360

Cross Creek Ranch2,0951,0223,117

Jordan Ranch1,0561,3692,425

Harrison Interests Tract1401,4201,560

Fulshear Farms2351,0801,315

Total Projected New Single-Family Occupancies6,77611,66118,899

Sheet1

Five Largest Multi-Family Developments2017-20222022-20272017-2027

Cross Creek Ranch (PU H19/H20)175450625

Jordan Ranch MF25360385

Park Lane Fulshear (Cross Creek)280100380

Potential MF in PU B0325325350

Point West0225225

Total Projected New Multi-Family Occupancies5801,7352,315

Projected New Housing Occupancies Jan. 2018 – Oct. 2027


Single-Family

Multi-Family

Mixed Use

Age-Restricted Total

Jan 2018–Oct 2018 798 0 0 48 846Oct 2018–Oct 2019 1,135 20 50 68 1,273Oct 2019–Oct 2020 1,305 150 80 80 1,615Oct 2020–Oct 2021 1,659 155 125 84 2,023Oct 2021–Oct 2022 1,879 255 150 87 2,371Oct 2022–Oct 2023 2,049 315 175 80 2,619Oct 2023–Oct 2024 2,228 310 170 80 2,788Oct 2024–Oct 2025 2,385 345 205 80 3,015Oct 2025–Oct 2026 2,518 375 215 80 3,188Oct 2026–Oct 2027 2,481 390 215 80 3,166Jan 2018–Oct 2022 6,776 580 405 367 8,128Oct 2022–Oct 2027 11,661 1,735 980 400 14,776Jan 2018–Oct 2027 18,899 2,315 1,385 767 23,366

Sheet1

Single-FamilyMulti-FamilyMixed UseAge-RestrictedManu-factured HomesRVsTotal

Jan 2018–Oct 2018798004800846

Oct 2018–Oct 20191,135205068001,273

Oct 2019–Oct 20201,3051508080001,615

Oct 2020–Oct 20211,65915512584002,023

Oct 2021–Oct 20221,87925515087002,371

Oct 2022–Oct 20232,04931517580002,619

Oct 2023–Oct 20242,22831017080002,788

Oct 2024–Oct 20252,38534520580003,015

Oct 2025–Oct 20262,51837521580003,188

Oct 2026–Oct 20272,48139021580003,166

Jan 2018–Oct 20226,776580405367008,128

Oct 2022–Oct 202711,6611,7359804000014,776

Jan 2018–Oct 202718,8992,3151,3857670023,366


ProjectedNew HousingOccupancies

Jan. 2018–Oct. 2019


Tamarron

Jordan Ranch



Jan. 2018–Oct. 2022


Tamarron

Jordan Ranch

Cross Creek (LCISD)

Vanbrooke

Kingsland Heights

Polo Ranch

Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek



Oct. 2022–Oct. 2027



Estimated Household

Size

2017


Typical Household Size


Housing Type Typical Household Size

Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom

1.55–1.85

Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom

1.85–2.25

Single-Family, Family Oriented

3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak

Single-Family, Age-Restricted 55+

1.65–1.80

Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate

2.65–2.85


Sheet1

Housing TypeTypical Household Size

Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom1.55–1.85

Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom1.85–2.25

Single-Family, Family Oriented3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak

Single-Family, Age-Restricted 55+1.65–1.80

Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate2.65–2.85

Students per Occupied Homeby School District


Katy ISD = 0.72 overall

Cinco Ranch/Cross Creek = 0.90 to 1.40

Lamar CISD = 0.58 overall

Cross Creek = 0.16 (but increasing now) Tamarron /Fulbrook on F.C.= 0.48 to 0.55 Lakes of Bella Terra = 0.50

Growth Scenarios


5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

2017 2018 2022 2027

POPU

LATI

ON

YEAR

CITY

10,284

20,552

28,708

ETJ

13,525

28,658

59,225

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Low

Population 12,160 13,925 15,910 18,028 19,887 21,582 23,241 24,393 25,443 26,363

% Growth 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.04

Growth 1,876 1,765 1,985 2,118 1,859 1,695 1,659 1,152 1,050 920Moderate

Population 12,198 13,999 16,088 18,390 20,552 22,594 24,642 26,100 27,482 28,708

% Growth 0.19 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.04

Growth 1,914 1,801 2,089 2,302 2,162 2,042 2,048 1,458 1,382 1,226High

Population 12,236 14,109 16,302 18,742 21,055 23,250 25,462 27,051 28,564 29,913

% Growth 0.19 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.05

Growth 1,952 1,873 2,193 2,440 2,313 2,195 2,212 1,589 1,513 1,349

Growth Scenarios – City Limits


Sheet1

2018201920202021202220232024202520262027

Low

Population1028412,16013,92515,91018,02819,88721,58223,24124,39325,44326,363

% Growth0.180.150.140.130.100.090.080.050.040.04

Growth1,8761,7651,9852,1181,8591,6951,6591,1521,050920

Moderate

Population1028412,19813,99916,08818,39020,55222,59424,64226,10027,48228,708

% Growth0.190.150.150.140.120.100.090.060.050.04

Growth1,9141,8012,0892,3022,1622,0422,0481,4581,3821,226

High

Population1028412,23614,10916,30218,74221,05523,25025,46227,05128,56429,913

% Growth0.190.150.160.150.120.100.100.060.060.05

Growth1,9521,8732,1932,4402,3132,1952,2121,5891,5131,349

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Low

Population 15,626 17,774 20,256 23,252 26,705 30,394 33,736 37,623 41,499 45,158

% Growth 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.09

Growth 2,101 2,148 2,482 2,996 3,453 3,689 3,342 3,887 3,876 3,659Moderate

Population 15,669 17,906 20,664 24,231 28,658 33,782 38,923 45,401 52,322 59,225

% Growth 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.13

Growth 2,144 2,237 2,758 3,567 4,427 5,124 5,141 6,478 6,921 6,903High

Population 15,712 18,038 20,934 24,715 29,452 34,960 40,512 47,573 55,151 62,744

% Growth 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.14

Growth 2,187 2,326 2,896 3,781 4,737 5,508 5,552 7,061 7,578 7,593

Growth Scenarios – ETJ


Sheet1

2018201920202021202220232024202520262027

Low

Population1352515,62617,77420,25623,25226,70530,39433,73637,62341,49945,158

% Growth0.160.140.140.150.150.140.110.120.100.09

Growth2,1012,1482,4822,9963,4533,6893,3423,8873,8763,659

Moderate

Population1352515,66917,90620,66424,23128,65833,78238,92345,40152,32259,225

% Growth0.160.140.150.170.180.180.150.170.150.13

Growth2,1442,2372,7583,5674,4275,1245,1416,4786,9216,903

High

Population1352515,71218,03820,93424,71529,45234,96040,51247,57355,15162,744

% Growth0.160.150.160.180.190.190.160.170.160.14

Growth2,1872,3262,8963,7814,7375,5085,5527,0617,5787,593

Population Projections by Community


Community 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Cross Creek Ranch 8,922 10,570 12,031 13,675 15,365 16,769 17,980 19,196 19,858 20,433 20,892

Downtown Area (A03, B02) 312 329 443 638 898 1,191 1,516 1,841 2,183 2,538 2,892

Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek 676 866 1,042 1,237 1,444 1,657 1,882 2,108 2,342 2,564 2,736

Fulshear Run 40 81 131 186 285 425 568 711 760 801 832

Churchill Farms 1,843 1,959 1,979 1,999 2,019 2,039 2,059 2,080 2,101 2,122 2,143

Firethorne 8,496 9,211 9,543 9,966 10,381 10,744 11,014 11,290 11,443 11,605 11,774

Foster Farms 0 0 0 3 19 50 163 276 863 1,603 2,499

Fulbrook 657 715 743 773 806 835 861 887 921 950 982

Fulshear Farms 0 6 8 87 372 935 1,629 2,323 3,299 4,386 5,461

Fulshear Lakes 0 2 45 159 334 537 787 1,037 1,541 2,158 2,791

Harrison Interests Tract 0 0 0 11 114 366 795 1,224 2,055 2,956 3,970

Jordan Ranch 213 611 1,182 1,812 2,598 3,540 4,535 5,535 6,489 7,399 8,311

Tamarron 1,811 2,637 3,627 4,580 5,560 6,527 7,549 8,576 9,516 10,363 10,959

CITY LIMITS

ETJ

Sheet1

Community20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

CITY LIMITSCross Creek Ranch8,92210,57012,03113,67515,36516,76917,98019,19619,85820,43320,892

Downtown Area (A03, B02)3123294436388981,1911,5161,8412,1832,5382,892

Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek6768661,0421,2371,4441,6571,8822,1082,3422,5642,736

Fulshear Run4081131186285425568711760801832

ETJChurchill Farms1,8431,9591,9791,9992,0192,0392,0592,0802,1012,1222,143

Firethorne8,4969,2119,5439,96610,38110,74411,01411,29011,44311,60511,774

Foster Farms000319501632768631,6032,499

Fulbrook657715743773806835861887921950982

Fulshear Farms068873729351,6292,3233,2994,3865,461

Fulshear Lakes02451593345377871,0371,5412,1582,791

Harrison Interests Tract000111143667951,2242,0552,9563,970

Jordan Ranch2136111,1821,8122,5983,5404,5355,5356,4897,3998,311

Tamarron1,8112,6373,6274,5805,5606,5277,5498,5769,51610,36310,959

Projected Population by Jurisdiction


Area Oct. 2017 Oct. 2018 Oct. 2020 Oct. 2022 Oct. 2025 Oct. 2027

City 10,284 12,198 16,088 20,552 26,100 28,708

ETJ 13,525 15,669 20,664 28,658 45,401 59,225

City + ETJ 23,809 27,867 36,752 49,210 71,501 87,933

Outside ETJ 854 944 1,200 1,685 2,922 4,302

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS

District 1 2,074 2,697 4,574 7,579 12,557 14,968

District 2 2,432 2,701 3,351 3,887 3,960 4,004

District 3 2,406 3,177 4,373 5,169 5,495 5,529

District 4 1,754 1,878 1,948 2,022 2,120 2,187

District 5 1,618 1,745 1,842 1,895 1,968 2,020

Sheet1

AreaPop 2010LCISD Fall CorrectionHousing Count 2016Column1Oct. 2017Household Size 2016 (wrong)Established Neighborhood Growth 17-21Established Neighborhood Growth 22-26Oct. 20172Oct. 2018Oct. 2019Oct. 2020Oct. 2021Oct. 2022Oct. 2023Oct. 2025Oct. 20252Oct. 2027

City2,92910,2849,43812,19813,49816,08817,72920,55220,99826,10023,76628,708

ETJ4,11813,52513,81615,66918,13620,66424,78428,65834,81645,40147,89259,225

City + ETJ23,80923,25427,86731,63436,75242,51349,21055,81471,50171,65887,933

Outside ETJ3788548469441,0581,2001,7681,6853,2122,9225,0894,302

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS

District 12,07416.690.0050.0102,0832,6973,9294,5746,5367,5799,14812,55711,76814,968

District 22,43212.480.0200.0352,2122,7012,6113,3513,2593,8873,4863,9603,5014,004

District 32,40613.550.0250.0351,9173,1773,5804,3734,4455,1694,7575,4954,7705,529

District 41,7549.870.0550.0551,6631,8781,7241,9481,7892,0221,8562,1201,9242,187

District 51,6189.920.0500.0501,5631,7451,6541,8421,7001,8951,7511,9681,8032,020


EstimatedPopulation by Planning

UnitOct. 2017



ProjectedPopulation by Planning

UnitOct. 2022



ProjectedPopulation by Single Member

District

Oct. 2020


City of FulshearDemographic Update

Spring 2018

City of FulshearSlide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Demographic CharacteristicsStudy AreaHousing and Economic GrowthNew Housing GrowthMost Active Residential Developments�Projected Housing OccupanciesProjected New Housing Occupancies �Jan. 2018 – Oct. 2027Projected�New Housing�OccupanciesProjected�New Housing�OccupanciesProjected�New Housing�OccupanciesEstimated Household SizeTypical Household SizeStudents per Occupied Home� by School DistrictGrowth ScenariosGrowth Scenarios – City LimitsGrowth Scenarios – ETJPopulation Projections by CommunityProjected Population by JurisdictionEstimated�Population by Planning UnitProjected�Population by Planning UnitProjected�Population by Single Member DistrictCity of Fulshear

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