Demographic Challenges and Opportunities in the Waikato Region: An A-B-C Approach to Population...

Demographic Challenges and Opportunities in the Waikato Region: An A-B-C Approach to Population Ageing

HAMILTON in Context

Natalie Jackson ©Professor of DemographyDirector, Population Studies Centre

20101

NZ: Will grow, but..Actual and Projected

2Stats NZ (2009 base)

Past Projected

Hamilton City – also projected to grow, but..

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

Stats NZ (Projected TA, 2006 Base, Table 2)

Num

ber

High

Medium

Low

Does NZ need 8 million? …. A debate we don’t need to have

• he tangatahe tangatahe tangata

• Demographic interpretation:

tis compositiontis compositiontis composition

4

As elsewhere, New Zealand is ‘ageing’

1966 (8.3% 65+) 2009 (12.8% 65+)

Percentage at each age 5

37

26

6

What does it mean to ‘age’?Population Ageing in four dimensions

• Numerical Ageing– Increase in numbers of elderly

(primarily caused by increased life expectancy)

• Structural ageing– Increase in proportions of elderly

(primarily caused by low/falling birth rates)**

• Natural decline– More elderly than children more

deaths than births• Absolute decline

– Inability of ‘replacement migration’ to replace the ‘lost’ births and increased deaths

NZ Elderly: Children

1901

1911

1921

1936

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2009

2016

2026

2036

2046

2056

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,0000-14 years

Num

ber

7

Projected

Crossover 2023

Projections: Stats NZ (2009) Medium Variant Series 5 (ANM 10,000; TFR 1.9)

8

Projected Change by Broad Age Group

Series 5NZ

65+ Years All other age groups combined

2009-2016(7.3%)

26.4% 4.5%

2009-2026(15.7%)

70.8% 7.6%

8Stats NZ (2009) Series 5 = TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000

NZ Labour Market Entrants : Exits

1901

1911

1921

1936

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2009

2016

2026

2036

2046

2056

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,00015-24 years55-64 years

Num

ber

9

Projected

Crossover 2021-2051?

Projections: Stats NZ (2009) Medium Variant Series 5 (ANM 10,000; TFR 1.9)

Enter: a demographically tight labour market

Australia 2007-200910

NZ: TA’s with negative entry/exit ratios

26

27

27

28

28

29

29

30

2006 2007 2008 2009

Perc

enta

ge

11

39%

36%

Waikato RegionsLabour Market Entry/Exit Ratios

12Stats NZ TableBuilder Estimated

Subnational Populations

14

The A-B-C of Population Ageing

• Accept– Population ageing has

been unfolding for a long time – it is coming to a town near you

• Buffer – Revisit /revise current

policies, practices, plans (UN 2001)

• Celebrate– We ‘know’ a lot about

this future; we can strategise for it positively; it will contain many opportunities

Challenges and Opportunities

for the Waikato

A story in age structures

15

The growth forecast (Annual growth rates)Waikato grows under all scenarios

16Stats NZ (2006) Series 5 (TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality)

But the Waikato is also ageing-just a little slower than total NZ

1996 (11% 65+) 2006 (12.5% 65+)

Percentage at each age 17

Almost all the growth is at older ages Projected Waikato Region 2011-2021 and 2011-2031 (Medium Series 5)

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85+

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202011-2021 (+7.1%)

2011-2031 (+12.4%)

age

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e

18Stats NZ (2006) Series 5 = National TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality

Hamilton City – growth and ageing

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0–14 15–39 40–64 65+

Stats NZ (Projected TA, 2006 Base, Table 4)

Num

bers

2011-2021 (+13% )

2011-2031 (+25% )

20

The ageing forecast: Broad Age Groups

Series MEDIUMHamilton CityWaikato

65+ Years All other age groups combined

2011-2021(13%)(7.1%)

41.3%38.3%

9.5%2.2%

2011-2031(25%)(12.4%)

88.4%79.4%

17.3%1.8%

20Stats NZ (2006) Series 5 = National TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality

.. some of Waikato’s regions are ageing faster than others:

Thames-Coromandel (23% 65+) Hauraki (19% 65+)

Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded) 21

Also faster than Waikato average:

Matamata-Piako (16.5% 65+) Waipa (15.0% 65+)


Te Awamutu faster than Waipa..

Te Awamutu (19.7% 65+) Waipa (15.0% 65+)


Some are ageing slower:

Franklin (11.5% 65+) Otorohanga (11.4% 65+)


And somewhat slower again:

Hamilton City (10.4% 65+) Waikato District (10.7% 65+)


So.. what would the ‘Tight 5’ and ‘Big 11’ look like?:

Tight Five (12.0% 65+) Big 11 (13.1% 65+)


How well would such amalgamations serve the underlying demographic constituencies?

Competition for workers

End of unemployment?

Workers: who you ‘gonna call?

30Stats NZ Estimated Resident Population 2009, Waikato and NZ (unshaded)

Males Females

Demographic Dividend

A challenge.. and an opportunity

31

Who will be the workers?

2006 Census: Waikato, European and Maori percentage by age

European/NZ (14.2% 65+) Maori (4.2% 65+)

Percentage at each age Census 2006 33

38

23

Waikato Region by Ethnicity* 2006

34

Male Female

*Stats NZ Multiple Count Ethnicity

Hamilton City by Ethnicity* 2006

35

Male Female

*Stats NZ Multiple Count Ethnicity

And what will be the industry?

Stats NZ Customised Database

Waikato’s Grain, Sheep and Beef Farmers (5,000)

Self-Employed and Employers

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Number at each age

Self-Employed,WithoutEmployees

Employer

Male Female

All grain, sheep, beef

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Number at each age

Self-Employed,WithoutEmployeesEmployer

PaidEmployee

UnpaidFamilyWorker

NotElsewhereIncluded

Male Female


Waikato’s Dairy Farmers (11,000)

Self-Employed and Employers

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Number at each age


Male Female

All dairy workers

1,000

800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Number at each age


PaidEmployee

UnpaidFamilyWorker


Male

Female


Waikato’s Medical and Dental (1,695)

All medical and dental

200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Number at each age


PaidEmployee

UnpaidFamilyWorker


Male Female

Watch this space..

Accept

Buffer (revisit those policies)

Celebrate (advance warning)

40

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There is more to population ageing than meets the eye

• Population Studies Centre

• will become NIDEA – The National Institute for Demographic and Economic Analysis – on November 24th 2010

• [email protected]

Thankyou

42

mailto:[email protected]

Demographic Challenges and Opportunities in the Waikato Region: An A-B-C Approach to Population...

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