Demographic challenge of Russia
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Demographic challenge of Russia
Government response
Plummeting population
Rate of natural growth
“Maternal capital” policy
$10,000 for every other born or adopted child, except the firstborn (first adopted)
Announced May 2006. Effective 2007-2016
“Maternal capital” can be used:
To improve housing conditions
To improve education level (i.e. to get higher education)
To increase the mother’s pension fund
Siberian state
Moscow
Models
fixed effects model
Ystateyear = β0+ βpensionXpensionstate+ βhousingXhousingstate + βavsalaryXavsalarystate + βunemploymentXunemploymentstate + βyear + ustateyear
Fixed effects model birthrate | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sq m o/c | -5.737728 .268442 -21.37 0.000 -6.264812 -5.210645
pension | .0018929 .0040903 0.46 0.644 -.0061384 .0099242
av sal p/c | .0026523 .0008879 2.99 0.003 .0009089 .0043957
2000 | -12.68872 6.37999 -1.99 0.047 -25.21576 -.1616748
2001 | -8.482731 5.550366 -1.53 0.127 -19.38082 2.415357
2002 | -2.025524 4.668346 -0.43 0.665 -11.19177 7.140725
2003 | 1.766027 4.047924 0.44 0.663 -6.18203 9.714084
2004 | 3.245498 3.486977 0.93 0.352 -3.601147 10.09214
2005 | -.6859826 2.826695 -0.24 0.808 -6.236169 4.864204
2007 | 6.447197 3.673453 1.76 0.080 -.7655904 13.65998
Conclusions
Some of the government policy targeted objectives appear to be positively related to the birthrate, but others are related negatively
Hard to dissect the effects of increasing incomes and the new government policy
The overall effect of targeted policy objectives on birthrate appears to be small
Ideal dataset
• Control and experimental group of homogeneous states
• All possible variables, such as poverty level, culture, religion, etc.
• Longer period of observation