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Demographic Analysis of the Endangered Plant...
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Life cycle Transition Model Life cycle Transition Model Life cycle Transition Model Life cycle Transition Model Habitat at Kamaileunu Population Habitat at Kamaileunu Population Habitat at Kamaileunu Population Habitat at Kamaileunu Population Habitat at Habitat at Habitat at Habitat at ‘Ohikilolo Ohikilolo Ohikilolo Ohikilolo Population Population Population Population Mature: with Mature: with Mature: with Mature: with infructescence infructescence infructescence infructescence * Seedling stage: with Seedling stage: with Seedling stage: with Seedling stage: with cotyledons or one leaf cotyledons or one leaf cotyledons or one leaf cotyledons or one leaf Immature small: Immature small: Immature small: Immature small: 2-4 leaves 4 leaves 4 leaves 4 leaves Seed bank Seed bank Seed bank Seed bank Immature large: Immature large: Immature large: Immature large: 5+ leaves, 5+ leaves, 5+ leaves, 5+ leaves, non non non non-reproductive reproductive reproductive reproductive * .02 .36 .18 .14 .03 Est. 11.6 .62 .22 .10 .06 .04 * Methods Methods Methods Methods Sanicula Sanicula Sanicula Sanicula mariversa mariversa mariversa mariversa is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family ( is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family ( is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family ( is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family (Apiaceae Apiaceae Apiaceae Apiaceae) that occurs on exposed, ) that occurs on exposed, ) that occurs on exposed, ) that occurs on exposed, xeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. Thi xeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. Thi xeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. Thi xeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. This species is deciduous, dying back to a s species is deciduous, dying back to a s species is deciduous, dying back to a s species is deciduous, dying back to a fleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several years fleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several years fleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several years fleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several years to flower and is to flower and is to flower and is to flower and is monocarpic monocarpic monocarpic monocarpic. All of these . All of these . All of these . All of these factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from year to year. Two years of demographic year to year. Two years of demographic year to year. Two years of demographic year to year. Two years of demographic data were taken at two of the four known populations. data were taken at two of the four known populations. data were taken at two of the four known populations. data were taken at two of the four known populations. Demographic Analysis of the Demographic Analysis of the Demographic Analysis of the Demographic Analysis of the Measurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of large Measurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of large Measurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of large Measurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of largest leaf, length of st leaf, length of st leaf, length of st leaf, length of the longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit p the longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit p the longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit p the longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit produced by each roduced by each roduced by each roduced by each reproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants obse reproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants obse reproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants obse reproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants observed at the four rved at the four rved at the four rved at the four populations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and r populations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and r populations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and r populations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and rappel work. appel work. appel work. appel work. Life cycle transition models and stage structured transition mat Life cycle transition models and stage structured transition mat Life cycle transition models and stage structured transition mat Life cycle transition models and stage structured transition matrix models were created based on two rix models were created based on two rix models were created based on two rix models were created based on two years of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown be years of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown be years of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown be years of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown below are from the Kamaileunu population. low are from the Kamaileunu population. low are from the Kamaileunu population. low are from the Kamaileunu population. Background Background Background Background Endangered Plant Endangered Plant Endangered Plant Endangered Plant Sanicula Sanicula Sanicula Sanicula mariversa mariversa mariversa mariversa Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, O`ahu O`ahu O`ahu O`ahu Army Natural Resources Program Army Natural Resources Program Army Natural Resources Program Army Natural Resources Program Acknowledgements: This work could not have been done without ins Acknowledgements: This work could not have been done without ins Acknowledgements: This work could not have been done without ins Acknowledgements: This work could not have been done without inspiration and assistance from piration and assistance from piration and assistance from piration and assistance from Dr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington Unive Dr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington Unive Dr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington Unive Dr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington University (Missouri). rsity (Missouri). rsity (Missouri). rsity (Missouri). Seedling count Seedling count Seedling count Seedling count Seedling count Seedling count Seedling count Seedling count Fruit count Fruit count Fruit count Fruit count Fruit count Fruit count Fruit count Fruit count # of leaves # of leaves # of leaves # of leaves # of leaves # of leaves # of leaves # of leaves 1 2 3 4 5 6 Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Leaf diameter Petiole length Petiole length Petiole length Petiole length Petiole length Petiole length Petiole length Petiole length *Assumptions *Assumptions *Assumptions *Assumptions •If a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered d If a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered d If a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered d If a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered dead. ead. ead. ead. Therefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skippi Therefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skippi Therefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skippi Therefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skipping growing ng growing ng growing ng growing seasons. seasons. seasons. seasons. •No seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assum No seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assum No seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assum No seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assumed to be ed to be ed to be ed to be from the previous year from the previous year from the previous year from the previous year’s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we did not have data for seed bank persistence. did not have data for seed bank persistence. did not have data for seed bank persistence. did not have data for seed bank persistence. •Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was no no no no differential treatment of individuals located in more or less fa differential treatment of individuals located in more or less fa differential treatment of individuals located in more or less fa differential treatment of individuals located in more or less favorable growing vorable growing vorable growing vorable growing sites. sites. sites. sites. •The tagging scheme we used was adequate The tagging scheme we used was adequate The tagging scheme we used was adequate The tagging scheme we used was adequate to track an individual between seasons and to to track an individual between seasons and to to track an individual between seasons and to to track an individual between seasons and to identify the same individual in the next season. identify the same individual in the next season. identify the same individual in the next season. identify the same individual in the next season. O`ahu O`ahu O`ahu O`ahu Army Army Army Army Natural Natural Natural Natural Resources Resources Resources Resources Program Program Program Program
Transcript of Demographic Analysis of the Endangered Plant...
Life cycle Transition ModelLife cycle Transition ModelLife cycle Transition ModelLife cycle Transition Model
Habitat at Kamaileunu PopulationHabitat at Kamaileunu PopulationHabitat at Kamaileunu PopulationHabitat at Kamaileunu Population
Habitat at Habitat at Habitat at Habitat at ‘‘‘‘OhikiloloOhikiloloOhikiloloOhikilolo PopulationPopulationPopulationPopulation
Mature: with Mature: with Mature: with Mature: with infructescenceinfructescenceinfructescenceinfructescence
*
Seedling stage: with Seedling stage: with Seedling stage: with Seedling stage: with
cotyledons or one leafcotyledons or one leafcotyledons or one leafcotyledons or one leaf
Immature small: Immature small: Immature small: Immature small:
2222----4 leaves4 leaves4 leaves4 leavesSeed bankSeed bankSeed bankSeed bank
Immature large: Immature large: Immature large: Immature large:
5+ leaves, 5+ leaves, 5+ leaves, 5+ leaves,
nonnonnonnon----reproductivereproductivereproductivereproductive
*.02 .36
.18
.14
.03
Est. 11.6
.62.22
.10
.06
.04
*
MethodsMethodsMethodsMethods
SaniculaSaniculaSaniculaSanicula mariversamariversamariversamariversa is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family (is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family (is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family (is an endangered perennial herb in the Parsley family (ApiaceaeApiaceaeApiaceaeApiaceae) that occurs on exposed, ) that occurs on exposed, ) that occurs on exposed, ) that occurs on exposed,
xeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. Thixeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. Thixeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. Thixeric ridges in rocky soil in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu. This species is deciduous, dying back to a s species is deciduous, dying back to a s species is deciduous, dying back to a s species is deciduous, dying back to a
fleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several yearsfleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several yearsfleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several yearsfleshy tap root in the dry summer months. It takes several years to flower and is to flower and is to flower and is to flower and is monocarpicmonocarpicmonocarpicmonocarpic. All of these . All of these . All of these . All of these
factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from factors make it difficult to determine population dynamics from year to year. Two years of demographic year to year. Two years of demographic year to year. Two years of demographic year to year. Two years of demographic
data were taken at two of the four known populations. data were taken at two of the four known populations. data were taken at two of the four known populations. data were taken at two of the four known populations.
Demographic Analysis of theDemographic Analysis of theDemographic Analysis of theDemographic Analysis of the
Measurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of largeMeasurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of largeMeasurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of largeMeasurements of vegetative individuals included: radius of largest leaf, length of st leaf, length of st leaf, length of st leaf, length of
the longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit pthe longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit pthe longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit pthe longest petiole, and number of leaves. The number of fruit produced by each roduced by each roduced by each roduced by each
reproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants obsereproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants obsereproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants obsereproductive individual was also noted. Some of the plants observed at the four rved at the four rved at the four rved at the four populations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and rpopulations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and rpopulations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and rpopulations were on cliffs thus requiring the use of ropes and rappel work.appel work.appel work.appel work.
Life cycle transition models and stage structured transition matLife cycle transition models and stage structured transition matLife cycle transition models and stage structured transition matLife cycle transition models and stage structured transition matrix models were created based on two rix models were created based on two rix models were created based on two rix models were created based on two
years of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown beyears of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown beyears of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown beyears of data. The Stage class transition probabilities shown below are from the Kamaileunu population.low are from the Kamaileunu population.low are from the Kamaileunu population.low are from the Kamaileunu population.
BackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground
Endangered Plant Endangered Plant Endangered Plant Endangered Plant SaniculaSaniculaSaniculaSanicula mariversamariversamariversamariversaSusan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, Susan Ching and Kapua Kawelo, O`ahuO`ahuO`ahuO`ahu Army Natural Resources ProgramArmy Natural Resources ProgramArmy Natural Resources ProgramArmy Natural Resources Program
Acknowledgements: This work could not have been done without insAcknowledgements: This work could not have been done without insAcknowledgements: This work could not have been done without insAcknowledgements: This work could not have been done without inspiration and assistance from piration and assistance from piration and assistance from piration and assistance from
Dr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington UniveDr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington UniveDr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington UniveDr. James Jacobi, USGS and Dr. Tiffany Knight, Washington University (Missouri).rsity (Missouri).rsity (Missouri).rsity (Missouri).
Seedling countSeedling countSeedling countSeedling countSeedling countSeedling countSeedling countSeedling count
Fruit countFruit countFruit countFruit countFruit countFruit countFruit countFruit count
# of leaves# of leaves# of leaves# of leaves# of leaves# of leaves# of leaves# of leaves11111111
2222222233333333
4444444455555555
66666666
Leaf diameterLeaf diameterLeaf diameterLeaf diameterLeaf diameterLeaf diameterLeaf diameterLeaf diameter
Petiole lengthPetiole lengthPetiole lengthPetiole lengthPetiole lengthPetiole lengthPetiole lengthPetiole length*Assumptions*Assumptions*Assumptions*Assumptions
•If a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered dIf a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered dIf a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered dIf a plant did not emerge in the next season it was considered dead. ead. ead. ead.
Therefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skippiTherefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skippiTherefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skippiTherefore, we did not allow for the possibility of plants skipping growing ng growing ng growing ng growing
seasons.seasons.seasons.seasons.
•No seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assumNo seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assumNo seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assumNo seed bank. This means that every seedling observed was assumed to be ed to be ed to be ed to be
from the previous yearfrom the previous yearfrom the previous yearfrom the previous year’’’’s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we s seed set. This is almost certainly not the case but we
did not have data for seed bank persistence.did not have data for seed bank persistence.did not have data for seed bank persistence.did not have data for seed bank persistence.
•Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was Each plant has an equal chance of reaching maturity. There was no no no no
differential treatment of individuals located in more or less fadifferential treatment of individuals located in more or less fadifferential treatment of individuals located in more or less fadifferential treatment of individuals located in more or less favorable growing vorable growing vorable growing vorable growing
sites.sites.sites.sites.
•The tagging scheme we used was adequate The tagging scheme we used was adequate The tagging scheme we used was adequate The tagging scheme we used was adequate
to track an individual between seasons and to to track an individual between seasons and to to track an individual between seasons and to to track an individual between seasons and to
identify the same individual in the next season.identify the same individual in the next season.identify the same individual in the next season.identify the same individual in the next season.
O`ahuO`ahuO`ahuO`ahuArmy Army Army Army Natural Natural Natural Natural Resources Resources Resources Resources ProgramProgramProgramProgram
Conclusions and Lessons LearnedConclusions and Lessons LearnedConclusions and Lessons LearnedConclusions and Lessons Learned
• In the next year a buried seed and germination study will help tIn the next year a buried seed and germination study will help tIn the next year a buried seed and germination study will help tIn the next year a buried seed and germination study will help to determine the longevity of the soil seed bank. o determine the longevity of the soil seed bank. o determine the longevity of the soil seed bank. o determine the longevity of the soil seed bank.
• Following further study, the Army Natural Resources Program may Following further study, the Army Natural Resources Program may Following further study, the Army Natural Resources Program may Following further study, the Army Natural Resources Program may utilize this type of analysis to determine restoration needs in utilize this type of analysis to determine restoration needs in utilize this type of analysis to determine restoration needs in utilize this type of analysis to determine restoration needs in order to meet order to meet order to meet order to meet
population stabilization goals for this species.population stabilization goals for this species.population stabilization goals for this species.population stabilization goals for this species.
• These data suggest that increasing any of the three vital rates These data suggest that increasing any of the three vital rates These data suggest that increasing any of the three vital rates These data suggest that increasing any of the three vital rates with the highest elasticity values can change the with the highest elasticity values can change the with the highest elasticity values can change the with the highest elasticity values can change the
population growth rate to be positive. These data therefore supppopulation growth rate to be positive. These data therefore supppopulation growth rate to be positive. These data therefore supppopulation growth rate to be positive. These data therefore support an active management program for this ort an active management program for this ort an active management program for this ort an active management program for this
species, including a reintroduction plan and ungulate control efspecies, including a reintroduction plan and ungulate control efspecies, including a reintroduction plan and ungulate control efspecies, including a reintroduction plan and ungulate control efforts.forts.forts.forts.
• Demographic investigations can be useful in guiding conservationDemographic investigations can be useful in guiding conservationDemographic investigations can be useful in guiding conservationDemographic investigations can be useful in guiding conservation management, models are only as good as the management, models are only as good as the management, models are only as good as the management, models are only as good as the
data fed into them and the longevity of the study.data fed into them and the longevity of the study.data fed into them and the longevity of the study.data fed into them and the longevity of the study.
• Develop clear assumptions in demographic investigations.Develop clear assumptions in demographic investigations.Develop clear assumptions in demographic investigations.Develop clear assumptions in demographic investigations.
• Consider the potential negative impacts to the resources you areConsider the potential negative impacts to the resources you areConsider the potential negative impacts to the resources you areConsider the potential negative impacts to the resources you are monitoring.monitoring.monitoring.monitoring.
• Before field monitoring is conducted, sketch out a transition maBefore field monitoring is conducted, sketch out a transition maBefore field monitoring is conducted, sketch out a transition maBefore field monitoring is conducted, sketch out a transition matrix model for your trix model for your trix model for your trix model for your taxataxataxataxa to determine the to determine the to determine the to determine the
knownsknownsknownsknowns and unknowns. Intensive field monitoring required for conductinand unknowns. Intensive field monitoring required for conductinand unknowns. Intensive field monitoring required for conductinand unknowns. Intensive field monitoring required for conducting these investigations require g these investigations require g these investigations require g these investigations require
significant labor input. Consider the duration and time investmesignificant labor input. Consider the duration and time investmesignificant labor input. Consider the duration and time investmesignificant labor input. Consider the duration and time investment required to obtain the information you seek.nt required to obtain the information you seek.nt required to obtain the information you seek.nt required to obtain the information you seek.
• The intensive monitoring associated with demographic investigatiThe intensive monitoring associated with demographic investigatiThe intensive monitoring associated with demographic investigatiThe intensive monitoring associated with demographic investigations provides excellent baseline data for future ons provides excellent baseline data for future ons provides excellent baseline data for future ons provides excellent baseline data for future
comparison.comparison.comparison.comparison.
• The methodology will always require refinement after the first fThe methodology will always require refinement after the first fThe methodology will always require refinement after the first fThe methodology will always require refinement after the first field excursion because there are unique ield excursion because there are unique ield excursion because there are unique ield excursion because there are unique
situations that you do not expect.situations that you do not expect.situations that you do not expect.situations that you do not expect.
Future PlansFuture PlansFuture PlansFuture Plans
A matrix model was used to estimate the growth rate (A matrix model was used to estimate the growth rate (A matrix model was used to estimate the growth rate (A matrix model was used to estimate the growth rate (λλλλ) and can be used to predict the number of individuals likely to mand can be used to predict the number of individuals likely to mand can be used to predict the number of individuals likely to mand can be used to predict the number of individuals likely to mature in the next ature in the next ature in the next ature in the next
season. season. season. season. Probabilities of transitioning between life stages were used as Probabilities of transitioning between life stages were used as Probabilities of transitioning between life stages were used as Probabilities of transitioning between life stages were used as the vital rates to create the matrix. Lambda values (the vital rates to create the matrix. Lambda values (the vital rates to create the matrix. Lambda values (the vital rates to create the matrix. Lambda values (eigeneigeneigeneigen values) and values) and values) and values) and
elasticity matrices were calculated using the program MATLAB (elasticity matrices were calculated using the program MATLAB (elasticity matrices were calculated using the program MATLAB (elasticity matrices were calculated using the program MATLAB (mathworks.commathworks.commathworks.commathworks.com) and R () and R () and R () and R (rrrr----project.comproject.comproject.comproject.com).).).).
AnalysisAnalysisAnalysisAnalysis
*avg over 2 yrs. 1-3 vital rates, determined by elasticity matrix values,
to have the highest effect on lambda if changed.
0.62.180Mature
0.14.220Large
Immature
5+ leaves
0.1.363.061Small
Immature
2-4 leaves
11.6*2.03.04.02Seedlings
and 1 leaf
MatureLarge
Immature
5+ leaves
Small
Immature
2-4 leaves
Seedlings
and 1 leaf
Kamaileunu Population
147 individuals monitored (~70% of total)
1-3 vital rates, determined by elasticity matrix values, to have the
highest effect on lambda if changed.
0.22.045.07Mature
0.33.0450Large
Immature
5+ leaves
0.33.581.53Small
Immature
2-4 leaves
3.720.340Seedlings
and 1 leaf
MatureLarge
Immature
5+ leaves
Small
Immature
2-4 leaves
Seedlings
and 1 leaf
Keaau Population
128 individuals monitored (~30% of total)
1.0720% (10.2 of 51) increased # of seedlings transitioning
.816% (3 of 51) actual value calculated from # of
seedlings found in yr 1 that transitioned into the
small immature size class
λλλλTransition from seedlings + 1 leafs to
small immature (2-4 leaves)
Kamaileunu PopulationKamaileunu PopulationKamaileunu PopulationKamaileunu Population
•With the current assumptions, With the current assumptions, With the current assumptions, With the current assumptions, λλλλ = 0.81 (i.e. declining by 19% per year)= 0.81 (i.e. declining by 19% per year)= 0.81 (i.e. declining by 19% per year)= 0.81 (i.e. declining by 19% per year)
• Elasticity matrix values indicate the three vital rates with theElasticity matrix values indicate the three vital rates with theElasticity matrix values indicate the three vital rates with theElasticity matrix values indicate the three vital rates with the highest effect on highest effect on highest effect on highest effect on λλλλ are:are:are:are:
1) the transition of seedlings and plants with 1 leaf into the s1) the transition of seedlings and plants with 1 leaf into the s1) the transition of seedlings and plants with 1 leaf into the s1) the transition of seedlings and plants with 1 leaf into the small immature size class; mall immature size class; mall immature size class; mall immature size class;
2) the number of seedlings generated from each mature individual2) the number of seedlings generated from each mature individual2) the number of seedlings generated from each mature individual2) the number of seedlings generated from each mature individual ((((It is possible that some It is possible that some It is possible that some It is possible that some
seedlings were missed during monitoring because of the difficultseedlings were missed during monitoring because of the difficultseedlings were missed during monitoring because of the difficultseedlings were missed during monitoring because of the difficulty of detection)y of detection)y of detection)y of detection); and ; and ; and ; and
3) the survivorship of the small immature size class. 3) the survivorship of the small immature size class. 3) the survivorship of the small immature size class. 3) the survivorship of the small immature size class.
• Manipulation of these 3 parameters shows how Manipulation of these 3 parameters shows how Manipulation of these 3 parameters shows how Manipulation of these 3 parameters shows how λλλλ is affected. is affected. is affected. is affected.
Example:Example:Example:Example: Increasing the numbers of individuals moving from the seedlingIncreasing the numbers of individuals moving from the seedlingIncreasing the numbers of individuals moving from the seedlingIncreasing the numbers of individuals moving from the seedling----1 leaf stage to the small 1 leaf stage to the small 1 leaf stage to the small 1 leaf stage to the small
immature size class from 6% to 20% results in a positive growth immature size class from 6% to 20% results in a positive growth immature size class from 6% to 20% results in a positive growth immature size class from 6% to 20% results in a positive growth rate, rate, rate, rate, λλλλ = 1.07 (could be increased = 1.07 (could be increased = 1.07 (could be increased = 1.07 (could be increased
in situin situin situin situ via via via via outplantingoutplantingoutplantingoutplanting of small of small of small of small immaturesimmaturesimmaturesimmatures and/or by ungulate fencing and weed control). and/or by ungulate fencing and weed control). and/or by ungulate fencing and weed control). and/or by ungulate fencing and weed control).
• In 2007 approximately 18% of the small immature size class and aIn 2007 approximately 18% of the small immature size class and aIn 2007 approximately 18% of the small immature size class and aIn 2007 approximately 18% of the small immature size class and about 62% of the large size class became bout 62% of the large size class became bout 62% of the large size class became bout 62% of the large size class became
mature. Assuming all factors influencing maturity are constant fmature. Assuming all factors influencing maturity are constant fmature. Assuming all factors influencing maturity are constant fmature. Assuming all factors influencing maturity are constant from year to year (a big assumption!) we rom year to year (a big assumption!) we rom year to year (a big assumption!) we rom year to year (a big assumption!) we
might expect ~ 17 individuals (of those monitored last year) maymight expect ~ 17 individuals (of those monitored last year) maymight expect ~ 17 individuals (of those monitored last year) maymight expect ~ 17 individuals (of those monitored last year) may be mature in the next growing season be mature in the next growing season be mature in the next growing season be mature in the next growing season
(a prediction cannot be made for the 30% of individuals not moni(a prediction cannot be made for the 30% of individuals not moni(a prediction cannot be made for the 30% of individuals not moni(a prediction cannot be made for the 30% of individuals not monitored for both years). tored for both years). tored for both years). tored for both years).
• This population had a larger number of seeds produced per matureThis population had a larger number of seeds produced per matureThis population had a larger number of seeds produced per matureThis population had a larger number of seeds produced per mature individual than Keaau, 269 seeds/mature versus 132 seeds/matureindividual than Keaau, 269 seeds/mature versus 132 seeds/matureindividual than Keaau, 269 seeds/mature versus 132 seeds/matureindividual than Keaau, 269 seeds/mature versus 132 seeds/mature....
Results and DiscussionResults and DiscussionResults and DiscussionResults and Discussion
1.02100 seedlings observed/(132 seeds per
mature*14mature previous yr) = 7.1 (5.4% germ.)
.8752 seedlings observed/(132 seeds per
mature*14mature previous yr) = 3.7
(2.8% germ.)
λλλλReproductive probability (est. # of
seedlings resulting from each mature)
Selected Bibliography:
W. F. Morris, D.F. Doak 2002. Quantitative Conservation Biology: Theory and Practice of Population Viability Analysis. Sinauer Associates.
H. R. Akcakaya, P. Sjogren-Gulve 2000. Population viability analyses in conservation planning: an overview. Ecological Bulletins 48:9-21
T.J. Bell, M.L. Bowles, and A.K. McEachern 2003. Projecting the Success of Plant Population Restoration with Viability Analysis. In Ecological Studies, Vol 165
Keaau PopulationKeaau PopulationKeaau PopulationKeaau Population
• With the current assumptions, the model indicates With the current assumptions, the model indicates With the current assumptions, the model indicates With the current assumptions, the model indicates λλλλ = 0.87 (i.e. declining by 13% per year). = 0.87 (i.e. declining by 13% per year). = 0.87 (i.e. declining by 13% per year). = 0.87 (i.e. declining by 13% per year).
• The elasticity matrix values indicated the same three vital rateThe elasticity matrix values indicated the same three vital rateThe elasticity matrix values indicated the same three vital rateThe elasticity matrix values indicated the same three vital rates as the Kamaileunu population would have the most effect on s as the Kamaileunu population would have the most effect on s as the Kamaileunu population would have the most effect on s as the Kamaileunu population would have the most effect on λλλλ if if if if
manipulated (although in different order). manipulated (although in different order). manipulated (although in different order). manipulated (although in different order).
Example:Example:Example:Example: Increasing the reproductive potential of mature individuals froIncreasing the reproductive potential of mature individuals froIncreasing the reproductive potential of mature individuals froIncreasing the reproductive potential of mature individuals from the observed 2.8% to 5% the growth rate becomes m the observed 2.8% to 5% the growth rate becomes m the observed 2.8% to 5% the growth rate becomes m the observed 2.8% to 5% the growth rate becomes
positive, positive, positive, positive, λλλλ ==== 1.0002. In other words, the number of observed seedlings would1.0002. In other words, the number of observed seedlings would1.0002. In other words, the number of observed seedlings would1.0002. In other words, the number of observed seedlings would need to increase from 52 to 100 to observe this need to increase from 52 to 100 to observe this need to increase from 52 to 100 to observe this need to increase from 52 to 100 to observe this
change in change in change in change in λλλλ.
• One reason why the survivorship of the small immature size classOne reason why the survivorship of the small immature size classOne reason why the survivorship of the small immature size classOne reason why the survivorship of the small immature size class would have a large influence on would have a large influence on would have a large influence on would have a large influence on λλλλ based on this data set is that not all based on this data set is that not all based on this data set is that not all based on this data set is that not all
of the live individuals in any size class might have aboveof the live individuals in any size class might have aboveof the live individuals in any size class might have aboveof the live individuals in any size class might have above----ground vegetation during the monitoring trip (one trip only in Aground vegetation during the monitoring trip (one trip only in Aground vegetation during the monitoring trip (one trip only in Aground vegetation during the monitoring trip (one trip only in April 2008). pril 2008). pril 2008). pril 2008).
More frequent monitoring trips may be necessary to observe all iMore frequent monitoring trips may be necessary to observe all iMore frequent monitoring trips may be necessary to observe all iMore frequent monitoring trips may be necessary to observe all individuals above ground. ndividuals above ground. ndividuals above ground. ndividuals above ground.
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