Democratic Presidential Primary Results

3,979 Total Delegates

1,991 To Win First Ballot at Convention

771 “Superdelegates” Vote on Second Ballot

1,512 Delegates through March 4

S1

Through Super Tuesday

What We Learned in the Early States

S2

IOWA NEW HAMPSHIRE

NEVADASOUTH CAROLINA

✓ 65% want a nominee who can beat Trump

✓ Bernie wins BIG 47% / Biden #2 -20%

✓ 27% AA / 51% Hispanics / 29% white vote

✓ Only 11% seniors / 23% white college educated women

✓ Bloomberg’s first shot at debate stage

✓ Medicare for All (top issue) vs powerful Culinary Union

✓ 80% of voters want a nominee who can beat Trump

✓ Biden landslide 48% / Bernie 20%

✓ Very diverse state / 57% AA/ Clyburn endorsement big (25%)

✓ SC lowest unemployment / 2.3%

✓ 39% call healthcare #1 issue

✓ Turnout – white ↑ 5% / older , more moderate than ’16

✓ Steyer $ drops out – $395/vote / ≈ $3,400 / 0 delegates

✓ Trump received 129k votes, 2x > Obama in 2012

✓ Klobuchar had a breakout debate performance — 3rd

✓ Bernie wins as expected – 25.7% - lowest in state history

✓ Mayor Pete is a strong second

✓ Counted all votes on election night

✓ 60% want a nominee who can beat Trump

✓ Turnout #172K / Slight increase over 2016

✓ Mayor Pete won by .1%

✓ Lowest overall winning % ever – 26.2% / no bounce

✓ 3 part vote-counting process –Final IA Caucus?

Super Tuesday– 14 States

A3

Winner

Alabama Biden

American Samoa Bloomberg

Arkansas Biden

California 415 Sanders

Colorado Sanders

Maine Biden

Massachusetts Biden

Minnesota Biden

North Carolina 110 Biden

Oklahoma Biden

Tennessee Biden

Texas 228 Biden

Utah Sanders

Vermont Sanders

Virginia 99 Biden

✓ Bloomberg on the ballot for the first time/ spent $198M

✓ Steyer spend $35M

✓ Bernie spend $13M

38% of delegates now awarded

Tuesday, March 10th 352 Delegates; 1,863 Awarded (46%)

Over $1B Spent

A4

Mississippi

36 Delegates70% AA

Michigan

125 Delegates*’16 Upset

Idaho

20 Delegates

Missouri

68 Delegates20% AA

North Dakota

14 Delegates

Washington

89 DelegatesCaucus to Primary

Democratic Spending and the Cash ContestThrough February

S5

Reported Raised

Bloomberg $464,145,124

Steyer $271,575,697 / 0 Delegates

Sanders $134,151,727 / $46M in Feb

Warren $93,028,094 / $29M in Feb

Buttigieg $82,998,032

Biden $69,947,288 / $18M in Feb

Klobuchar $34,478,549

Bloomberg:

Total: $558M

- $9.6M per delegate

- Spent $5.4M a day

- Spent $227K an hour

Bloomberg’s visual market-share of Super Tuesday television advertising

- Not including digital

S6Source: New York Times

Bloomberg’s Market Disruption is Real Costs per Gross Rating Point

A7

$316

$577

$577 $608

$709

$908

$965 $965

$1,197

$1,376

$158 $236

$278

$369 $369

Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Spent $262M in January

30,000 YouTube and Google Ads per Minute

Charlotte: +124%

Atlanta: +52%

Portland: +134%

Atlanta

Charlotte

Portland

New Front Runner BidenStunning Super Tuesday Wins

• Coalition of African Americans / suburbanites/ older voters

• Momentum mattered

• Late deciders/ electability

• Klobuchar and Mayor Pete’s exit gave Biden the moderate lane

• 6 in 10 voters want a nominee who can beat Trump

• Won states– never visited/ spent no $ / had zero field offices

S8

The Other Front Runner

S9

The Bernie movement based on distrust of corporations,

government, institutions, banks, and the wealthy

Campaign promises:

✓ Guarantee healthcare to all people as a right

✓ Greed of pharmaceutical industry must end

✓ Make public colleges + universities tuition free

✓ Lower/ wipe out current student debt

2016 Lesson– Bernie → Trump/ Trump → Bernie Transcends party or policies

Coalition of Latinos and young progressives/ liberals

S10

Bernie’s Stump Speech:

• Not spend $700B on military annually

• Pass comprehensive immigration reform / path to citizenship

• Create 13M jobs

• Overturn Citizens United- publically fund elections

• Green New Deal

• Class warfare vs corporate elite

Muscle – 9M Twitter followers vs POTUS 40M

• Online attention 24M/week vs POTUS 64M/week

• Over 2M individual donors / no high dollar $ events / repeat donors ≈ $20

Bottom Line:• Agitator / outsider / ran as an Independent in VT

• Loner on Capitol Hill / ideologically rigid

• Not expanding base vs 2016 race

Trump’s GOP92% Support

A11

• Trump launched his fundraising apparatus immediately after his inauguration

• Had raised $100M by Election Day in 2018 for himself

• New $580,000-per-couple joint fundraising committee with the RNC

• Impeachment fundraising success– $60M in two weeks

• ActBlue raised $1B vs WinRed $100M in 2019 – Good start

• Trump Campaign and RNC on pace for $400M cash on hand by the Democratic convention in

July

• Raised $86M in February and held over 100 political rallies since inauguration / collecting data

The National Horserace and Public Polling Averages

A12

44.4%

49.8%

44.5%49.4%

Source: Real Clear Politics

Electoral College ScenarioThe Rust Belt vs The Sun Belt

S13

Scenarios

(1) Lose MI + PA = 270 W

(2) Lose FL = 277 W

(3) Lose MI + PA + WI = 260 L

(4) Lose FL + AZ = 266 L

(5) Lose MI + PA +

NE-2

= 269 Tie

6 Battlegrounds- AZ/ MI/ WI/ PA/ NC/ FL

Watch ME–CD-2 / NM/ MN

The 2020 Census and Population Changes by State

A14

Gaining Seats

Losing Seats

+1

+1

+2

+1

+1

+1

+3

-1

-1

-1

-1-1

-1

-1-1

-1

Trump’s job approval has been consistent in the mid-40’s, but a majority approve of the job he’s doing

on the economy

A15

46%

56%Overall

Handling the

Economy

Source: Real Clear Politics

Six in ten report being “better off than three years ago”

S16

Source: Gallup

Are you better off than you were three years ago or not?

Yes, better off No, not better off

% %

2020 61✔ 36

2012 45 52

2004 50* 42

1996 50* 34

1992 50* 38

Progressive policies were equally popular in the McGovern era (1972) compared to 2020

S17

Source: Gallup

1972 2020

Single-Payer Health Care 69% 53%

Federal Jobs Guarantee 79% 69%

Higher Income Taxes on Wealthy 77% 68%

Higher Corporate Taxes 67% 56%

Stricter Gun Control 62% 60%

Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains 71% 69%

Cut Defense Spending 50% 29%

Abolish Electoral College 80% 53%

Allow Ex-convicts to Vote n/a 68%

Marijuana Decriminalization 16% 62%

Raise Minimum Wage 46% 54%

Break up Large Corporations 61% 47%

The Chamber’s Top Three Political Priorities

A18

1 Maintain a pro-growth majority in the U.S. Senate

as a backstop; 35 races

2 Encourage bipartisan governing

3 Support more centrist House Democrats

Utilizing All of Our Political Assets

S19

FederationPartners

Political Advocacy Committee

U.S.Chamber

PAC

$

RegionalTeam

VoterEducation

$

Comms

Team

U.S. Senate Top Priorities

A20

Toss Up Toss Up Toss Up Lean GOP Lean GOP Likely GOP

OUTRAISED

every quarter

OUTSPENT

heavily in

2019, $5M vs

$5,000

OUTSPENT

$5M vs $4M

in 2019

PRIMARY

against

Collins

LOW NAME

ID but cleared

GOP primary

in 2019

OUTRAISED

Trump Won

53% Job

Approval

Tied

Trump Lost

Running behind

POTUS

-

Trump Lost

Tied

Trump Won

Jungle

Trump Won

+

Trump Won

+

Running behind

POTUS

Alabama Kansas Montana Tennessee

Lean GOP Lean GOP Lean GOP* Solid GOP

“ABRM”

March 31st Runoff

Sessions vs Tuberville

Filing deadline is 6/2

5 GOP Candidates

Daines $5M COH

Gov. Bullock

Ambassador Hagerty

August 6th Primary

Second Tier Targeted Senate States

S21

Independents Place Premium on Progress and Bipartisanship

S22

On a scale of 1-9 with 1 being not important at all, 5 being important, and 9 being

extremely important, how important is each of the following issues or news stories to

you in deciding how to vote for Congress in the future?

Ind

1 Need to get things done in Washington & get the parties to work together 7.26

2 The economy and jobs 6.93

3 Cost of living 6.75

4 Foreign policy/Terrorism/Iran/situation in the Middle East 6.45

5 The debate regarding the cost of prescription drugs 6.40

6 Affordable Care Act/health care/single payer/Medicare for All 6.14

7 Trade/Tariffs/China/Trade agreement with Mexico & Canada 6.02

8 Border security 5.98

9 Climate change 5.78

10 Abortion issues 5.34

11 Issues related to women 5.33

12 Discussions about socialism 4.87

13 Allegations of Donald Trump ties to Russia 4.85

14 Impeachment of the President 4.82

15 Democratic Presidential Primary 4.79

16 Democrats’ subpoenas of Trump officials 4.62

Source: Winston Group Discussion Points

Why 2019 USCC Political Activity Mattered

A23

Incumbent GOP Senators were struggling with low job approval and image ratings

Thin voter knowledge of legislative accomplishments and records: 75% votes on personnel – Judges/cabinet/subcabinet – #200

Course correcting with suburban, college educated women who support pro-growth issue sets

Local focus on real life difference makers: apprenticeships (ME), infrastructure and USMCA (AZ), veterans and their spouses in the workforce (NC)

Spending in Maine topped $9M in 2019, expected to surpass $60M through the cycle

Chamber fall initiative – Award for Perdue/USMCA digital spot – “Best Online Video” 2019

1.

2.

4.

5.

6.

3.

2020 Program

S24

Focus on clear windows in the political calendar– break through clutter

Spend early – define terms of the debate on jobs + economic growth

Lots of women as messengers in commercials

Suburban market focus where we can gain expertise on messaging and effectiveness

Spend before rates skyrocket on Labor Day/ Presidential debates

Senate focused specific markets: Maricopa County in Phx, Portland in ME, Charlotte and Greensboro in NC, Denver in Colorado, Atlanta in GA, Des Moines in IA

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Early 2020 Activity in Key House Contests

A25

AL-02 – Nominee Jeff Coleman (R)

• Endorsement event on February 12 with the BCA and Dothan

Chamber at the AL Truckers Association in Montgomery, AL

• Former BCA Chairman

• Roby open seat

• Runoff on 3/31

WI-07 – Nominee Tom Tiffany (R)

• Endorsement event on February 6 with the WMC at Schuette

Metals in Wasau, WI

• Won the special primary on February 18

TX-28 – Representative Henry Cuellar (D)

• Endorsement event on February 18 with TAB and the Laredo

Chamber of Commerce in Laredo, TX

• Won

U.S. HouseThere are 30 Democrats in “Trump” 2016 Districts

S26

AZ-01 NY-18 IL-14 *NJ-03 OK-05

IA-02 PA-08 *ME-02 NJ-11 PA-17

IL-17 GA-06 MI-08 NM-02 SC-01

MN-07 WI-03 MI-11 NY-11 UT-04

NH-01 IA-01 *MN-02 NY-19 VA-02

NJ-05 IA-03 NY-22 VA-07 NV-03

• GOP Needs + 18 for Majority

• GOP really needs + 20

• Lose 2 NC seats/ redistricting

• History- WH + party net +5-7

House seats

• Impeachment vote – tough

* Voted NO on impeachment

Cord-Cutting Accelerated in 2019, Raising Pressure on Cable Providers

A27

State Cord Cutters

Iowa 32%

North Carolina 39%

Arizona 33%

Colorado 33%

Maine 26%

Georgia 43%

A28

The DNA of a

“Chamber” modeled

voter