DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 2030 -...
Transcript of DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 2030 -...
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of TAQATI is strictly prohibited
DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 2030
19th of September, 2016
2015 DSM Savings Highlights – Public Version
Dubai has set ambitious targets for its DSM Strategy of 30% savings of electricity and
water by 2030
The DSM strategy comprises 9 main programs with specific targets for 2030, supported
by 8 implementation mechanisms
DSM Goal
9 DSM Programs
8 DSM Implementation
Mechanisms
Dubai to become a role model in energy efficiency by implementing cost-effective electricity and water
demand saving measures and developing a green service market
3.
District
cooling
6.
Outdoor
lighting
8.
Demand
response
4.
Standards &
labels for
appliances &
equipment
7.
Power and
water tariff
rates
5.
Water
reuse and
efficient
irrigation
1.
Building
regulation
Institutional setting
and capability building
Policies and regulations
Information systems
Public awareness
Governing by example
Technologies and studies
Financing mechanisms
Measurement and verification
2.
Building
retrofits
9.
Shams
Dubai
In 2015, all DSM programs are meeting initial savings targets in preparation for a
strong ramp-up in the coming years in Electricity
Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis
5.4
4.5
3.7
2.9
2.2
1.61.21.3
1.61.5
2.11.9
1.71.71.5
203020252017
19.0
20162011 20152014 2018
12.0
20202012 2013 2019
Electricity Savings (TWh, 2011 to ’15 actual, 2016 to ’30 target)
Targets Savings
Savings vs.
BAU4.6% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.4%
50% savings from
other programs
Base Case
TWh
Savings from DEWA
Tariff Reforms
Initial savings from DGBR,
ESMA Reguls and Retrofit
… and the same thing for Water
Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis
9.1
6.9
4.8
2.92.22.4
2.83.63.5
13.1
3.43.33.33.53.3
2016 2025
29.047.0
20172014 2019 20202013 2018 2030201520122011
Water Savings (BIG, 2011 to ’15 actual, 2016 to ’30 target)
Targets Savings
Savings vs.
BAU4.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%
50% savings from
other programs
Base Case
BIG
Initial savings from
Water Reuse
Savings from DEWA
Tariff Reforms
At average energy and water tariffs, the DSM Strategy has brought until end of 2015
over AED 4.0 Bil. of cumulative savings to consumers on their utility bill
Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis
Base CaseMonetization of Operational Savings(Million AED, calculated; excl. avoided Capex, excl. investments)
800
700
900
900
4,000
700
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2011 Cummulative2015201420132012
Rationale
• Estimated economic benefits do not include avoided capital investments in generation
capacity and grid expansion
• Net benefits to be calculated by deducting investments and costs of implementing the DSM
Strategy
Electricity and water savings result in about 1 Mil ton of avoided CO2 emissions in
2015, and about 4 Mil ton since the start of the DSM Strategy
Note: Conversion rate of MWh to Tons CO2e with the current power generation mix we have in Dubai grid, the number we use is 1 MWh = 0.46 Ton CO2e
Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis
4,047
955
864
782
672774
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2011 20142012 2013 2015 Cummulative
Base CaseAvoided CO2 emissions due to the DSM Strategy(‘000 Ton of CO2, 2011 to ’15 actual)
All programs today contribute to electricity savings, with a strong uptake of
standards from ESMA and a decreasing impact of the DEWA 2011 tariff review
DSM Program
2014
Savings
GWh
2015
Savings
GWh
2015
Target
GWh
Delta
YoY
(%)
Dev. vs.
target
(%) Comments
1Building
regulations93 156 (2017) +67% +
Savings from DM and Trakhees codes on
906 commissioned buildings
2 Building retrofits 4 12 (2016) +175% +Savings from 27 projects (13 new in 2015)
addressing 27 buildings & facilities
3 District Cooling 89 95 (2017) +7% +Savings from DC efficiency gains based on
data from 4 out of 5 operators only
4Standards and
labels353 550 566 +56% ~0%
Savings from A/C: 535GWh, Washing
machines: 3GWh, Refrigerators: 13GWh
5Water Reuse and
Efficient Irrigationn/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
No electricity savings expected from this
program
6 Outdoor Lighting 9 11 11 +25% ~0%96% savings from RTA, 4% from DM. 85%
from switch-off , 15% from LED
7Change of Tariffs
Rates 1,361 1,293 1,058 -5% +22%
Effect of 2011 tariff review, gradually
decreasing over time
8 Demand Response n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo consumption savings expected from this
program (only peak reduction)
Total 1,909 2,116 1,635 +11% +29%
Total as % of baseline 5.1% 5.4% 4.2%
9 Shams Dubai n/a 0.3 n/a n/a n/aGeneration in 2015 from the first 3
projects with installed capacity of 1.1 MW
Grand Total 1,909 2,117 1,635 +11% +29%
BASE CASE
Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis
Water savings see an increasing contribution from the DM water reuse program
(Program 5) and from the DGBR (Program 1)
DSM Program
2014
Savings
MIG
2015
Savings
MIG
2015
Target
MIG
Delta
YoY
(%)
Dev. vs.
target
(%) Comments
1 Building regulations 87 144 (2017) +65%Savings from DM and Trakhees codes on
906 commissioned buildings
2 Building retrofits 0.002 0.002 (2016) +12% Initial savings from 2 reported projects
3 District Cooling n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo water savings expected from this
program
4Standards and
labelsn/a (2016)
No data for water savings available at this
time
5Water Reuse and
Efficient Irrigation50 196 (2016) +292%
Initial savings from new irrigation
standards and quantity/time optimization
6 Outdoor Lighting n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo water savings expected from this
program
7Change of Tariffs
Rates 3,180 3,103 2,231 -2% +39%
Effect of 2011 tariff review, gradually
decreasing over time
8 Demand Response n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo water savings expected from this
program
Total 3,318 3,444 2,231 +4% +54%
Total as % of baseline 3.4% 3.3% 2.1%
BASE CASE
Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis
In terms of electricity consumption per account, residential & government sectors show
increase trends(1), while industrial confirms consistent savings
Indexed kWh
per account
(2010 = 100%)
1) Changing consumption behaviors may be due to a variety of factors, including growing wealth, economic development, climate change and limited awareness
Note: Definition of customer types refers to applied contract/tariff. Reported consumption refers to billed consumption (line losses or unbilled consumption not included)
60
70
80
90
100
110
12010% 22% 7.5% 52%
+0.1 -0.9
-12
+7.0 +6.2
8.7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: DEWA, TAQATI analysis
Price signals impact,
consumption behaviour back to
pre-2011 levels
Power Consumption per Account(MWh, 2010-2015 Actual)
Sector share of total consumption in 2015
Res- Nationals Res- Expats Industrial Commercial Government
As for Water consumption per account, Commercial and Government sectors show
increase trends(1), while Res-Nationals confirms consistent savings
Sector share of total consumption in 2015
1) Changing consumption behaviors may be due to a variety of factors, including growing wealth, economic development, climate change and limited awareness
Note: Definition of customer types refers to applied contract/tariff. Reported consumption refers to billed consumption (line losses or unbilled consumption not included)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Residential nationals Residential expats Industrial Commercial Government
-14 +5.1 +1.7 +5.2 +9.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: DEWA, TAQATI analysis
Water Consumption per Account(‘000 IG, 2010-2015 Actual)
Price signals
impact,
consumption
behaviour
back to pre-
2011 levels
22% 38% 3.3% 27% 9.7%
Indexed IG per
account
(2010 = 100%)
DSCE and the DSM Manager action plans for 2016 are aligned with those priorities
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
Extend and harmonize green
building codes with FZs
Develop an integrated
DSM awareness
strategy
Support the adoption of
District Cooling solutions
Support the design of the
announced Green Fund
viii.
vii.
vi.
v.
Keep developing
partnerships
at a national and
international level
Reinforce DSM analytical
capabilities, including
data capturing and
predictive analysis
Develop a capability
building study
Launch a working group to
develop an integrated
water strategy for Dubai
2016
Targets
Annual Report for 2015 has been published in Arabic and English, and the
public version has been made available online at www.Taqati.ae
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of TAQATI is strictly prohibited
Thank You
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For clarifications or questions:
Aref AbouZahr
TAQATI | Dubai Energy Efficiency Program
+971 50 4538996