1. MANAGERIAL ECONOMICSDemand Forecasting MethodsPresented by :BABASAB PATIL

2. Demand forecasting Non statisticalStatisticalmethodsmethods Market Survey TimeexperimentsRegression method series Complete Sample Trendsurveysurvey projectionSimulated marketingOpinionsurveyGraphicalDelphi surveyTestmarketing 3. INTRODUCTIONIn modern business, production is often made in anticipation of demand. Anticipation of demand implies demand forecasting. Forecasting means expectations about the future course of development. 4. Meaning of Demand ForecastingDemand forecasting means expectations about thefuture course of the market demand for the product. 5. NON-STATASTICAL METHOD SURVEY METHOD MARKET EXPERIMENTS 6. SURVEY METHOD The survey is the most direct approach to demand forecasting in the short run. It may be a sample survey or a census inquiry. A census inquiry means the inquiry of the entire universe or population. 7. The three variants of the surveymethod The consumer survey method. The collective method. Delphi method. 8. The Consumer SurveyA sample survey of the consumers may beundertaken questioning them about what they areplanning or intending to buy.Drawbacks of the consumer Survey method This method is expensive. It is time consuming. 9. The Collective Opinion Under the collective opinion method the salesmen have to report to the head office their estimates of expectations of the sales in the territories. The opinion method is cheaper and easy to handle, it is time consuming also. Drawback High element of bias of the reporting agency. 10. Delphi methodOlaf helmer originated the Delphi method in thelate 1940s.Delphi method is used for conductingopinion poll or survey. Under this method, the groupof experts are repeatedly questioned for theiropinion or comments on some issues and theiragreements and disagreements are clearlyidentified. 11. MARKET EXPERIMENTATION Market experiments may be conducted to make certain specific observations. The two types of market experimentation Experimentation in laboratory. Test marketing. 12. EXPERIMENTATION INLABORATORYIt is also referred to as the consumer clinic method. In this method, a consumer clinic or small laboratory is formed by creating an artificial market situation. 13. TEST MARKETINGIn this method a market experiment is performed under actual market conditions. First a choice of the market for experiments is made and is segregated from the rest. 14. Statistical Methods Once market demand data are collected by the markersurvey or form the sales records of the firm demandforecasting can be possible from such a information.The Statistical methods Time Series Data. Trend Projections. Regression Analysis. 15. TIME SERIESTime series data refers to data collected over a period oftime recording historical changes in price, income andother relevant variables influencing demand for thecommodity. 16. TREND PROJECTIONS A time series analysis of sales data over a period of time isconsidered to serve as a good guide for sales or demandforecasting.Trends refer to the long term persistent movements of data in one direction upward or downward. 17. Thank you