Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational...
-
Upload
alexander-mcbride -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
3
Transcript of Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational...
![Page 1: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Demand Forecasting & Demand Management
Stephen Simpkin
Zenith McIntyre-Allen
Organisational Intelligence
30th January
LARIA East meeting
![Page 2: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Essex County Council’s strategy for Transformation:
“Commissioning outcomes based on evidence, in order to protect the most
vulnerable, enable the economy to grow and promote quality of life for Essex residents.”
~ Joanna Killian, Chief Executive
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 3: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why?
• We believe that there will be increased demand for many of our services
• We know that with our current approach we cannot afford to continue to fund services at the same level
• We need the evidence to determine how we prioritise our spending
• We will have a consistent approach to visualising the future in Essex
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 4: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Demand Forecasting
Population now
Future population
Translate into service take-up
Consider demographic, policy and technological changes
Demand Management
Target Preventative Services
Target Early Interventions
What works / Best Practice
Design innovative interventions
Redirecting / Saying no
Predicting Future Demand & Potential Stressors in
ProvisionPlans to mitigate demand
Analyse Plan
![Page 5: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Conventional WisdomGather clear robust evidence that backs-up (or dispels) myths or ‘what we think we know’.
Organisational Intelligence
420,00 babies will
be born
International migration will account for 6% of
population growth compares to internal UK
migration, 72%
Population will grow by 20%
Number of over 85s will
grow by 175%
Working age population will grow by 5% compared to 40% growth among
non-working age
2m people will migrate
to Essex
Over the next 25 years in Essex…
Uttlesford to grow at the fastest rate,
32%
Over 65s to account for 1/3 of the population
![Page 6: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Adult Social Care forecasts
Demand Forecasting application
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 7: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Adult Social Care – Conventional Wisdom
“Older people population is growing – our services will not be able to cope with the anticipated increase!”
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 8: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Adult Social Care – Conventional Wisdom
AIM: Gather clear robust evidence that backs-up (or dispels) myths or ‘what we think we know’
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 9: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Reasons for revising forecasts
• Committed to ongoing refresh of forecasts (due to changing environment, health needs, policies, etc)
• As more data (and research) becomes available we can continually fine-tune forecasts
• Attempt a consistent approach to demand forecasting• Confidence in forecasted growth rates• Start from the most informed position possible
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 10: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Methodology
Historically demand forecasting models are either ‘Prevalence’ based or ‘Trend’ based
We created a composite model for 4 cohort of Adult Social Care service use (Older People, Mental Health, Learning Disability and Physical and Sensory Impairment)
• Population baseline > Projections > Turning projections into needs groups > Turning needs groups into service use > Informing MTRS and other demand management activities
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 11: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Impact
• Revised forecasts broadly reflective of previous forecasts• Able to identify key growth areas/cohorts• Clear and consistent methodology used (which can be easily
updated)• Using revised methodology we determined that we were
previously potentially overestimating the growth of TWO Adult Social Care cohorts
• Adopting revised forecasts into budget tool reduced forecasted spend
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 12: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 13: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Crossover with Demand Management
Once future service demand is estimated, there may be scope to attempt to mitigate this demand. Demand management may be possible through:• Changes to existing initiatives (such as targeting preventative
services to the cohorts/geographies that will benefit most);• Early intervention identification (using information available to us
to implement interventions before it is too late);• Best practice learning (what is working elsewhere and can this
be replicated), or;• Design of innovative interventions.
Organisational Intelligence
![Page 14: Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational Intelligence 30 th January LARIA East meeting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649d6d5503460f94a4e258/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Next steps• Applying this approach to other areas of Essex County Council activity,
e.g. forecasting pupil numbers, aspects of health/social care integration, place issues such as housing, etc.
• Potential areas for Demand Forecasting/Management:
Organisational Intelligence