DELTASIMDELTASIMA Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay A Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay

RegionRegion

Wade L. White, AICP- CitilabsWade L. White, AICP- Citilabs

Danny Lamb- Florida DOTDanny Lamb- Florida DOT

AgendaAgenda

• Why develop a land use model?Why develop a land use model?• Major elements of the modelMajor elements of the model• Data requirementsData requirements• The DELTASIM processThe DELTASIM process• Integration with the TBRPM transport Integration with the TBRPM transport

modelmodel• Next StepsNext Steps

Why Develop DELTASIMWhy Develop DELTASIM

• Land use and transportation systems Land use and transportation systems continue to develop at a rapid pace in the continue to develop at a rapid pace in the Tampa Bay regionTampa Bay region

• Transport investments clearly have an Transport investments clearly have an impact on land use development potential, impact on land use development potential, timelines and economic competitiveness timelines and economic competitiveness of the region and vice versaof the region and vice versa

• Quality land use data are finally becoming Quality land use data are finally becoming available at a regional level for all countiesavailable at a regional level for all counties

Major Components of DELTASIMMajor Components of DELTASIM

• Enumeration- Disaggregate Data Enumeration- Disaggregate Data SynthesizerSynthesizer– PopulationPopulation– EmployerEmployer– Group QuarterGroup Quarter– Hotel/MotelHotel/Motel– SchoolSchool

• Accessibility CalculatorAccessibility Calculator• Parcel Allocation (1.2 million)Parcel Allocation (1.2 million)• Construction ModuleConstruction Module• ZDATA BuilderZDATA Builder

Data RequirementsData Requirements

• Population/HHPopulation/HH– ZDATA1ZDATA1– PUMS (Permanent & GQ)PUMS (Permanent & GQ)– School InventorySchool Inventory– Hotel/Motel InventoryHotel/Motel Inventory

• EmploymentEmployment– ZDATA2ZDATA2– InfoUSA datasetsInfoUSA datasets

• Transport LOS (skims) for at least 2 yearsTransport LOS (skims) for at least 2 years– Highway (FF & CG)Highway (FF & CG)– Transit (walk, peak)Transit (walk, peak)– Composite ImpedanceComposite Impedance

Data RequirementsData Requirements

• Parcel DataParcel Data– TAZTAZ– FLU CODEFLU CODE– ELU CODEELU CODE– ACRESACRES– APPRAISED VALUEAPPRAISED VALUE– EXISTING DWELLING EXISTING DWELLING

UNITSUNITS– DRI APPROVED FLAGDRI APPROVED FLAG– DRI ACTIVE FLAGDRI ACTIVE FLAG– URBAN GROWTH URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY FLAGBOUNDARY FLAG

• Parcel Attributes Parcel Attributes (cont)(cont)– SIGNIFICANT < DRI SIGNIFICANT < DRI

FLAGFLAG– TCEA FLAGTCEA FLAG– WATERFRONT FLAGWATERFRONT FLAG– X_COORDX_COORD– Y_COORDY_COORD– SCHOOL “OK” FLAGSCHOOL “OK” FLAG– EXISTING SCHOOL FLAGEXISTING SCHOOL FLAG– EXISTING HOTEL/MOTEL EXISTING HOTEL/MOTEL

FLAGFLAG

The DELTASIM ProcessThe DELTASIM Process

• Operates on 1 year incrementsOperates on 1 year increments• Full cohort-component simulation with life Full cohort-component simulation with life

eventsevents– BirthsBirths– DeathsDeaths– Household formation/dissolutionHousehold formation/dissolution– Children moving out/forming householdsChildren moving out/forming households– Net in-migrationNet in-migration

The DELTASIM ProcessThe DELTASIM Process

• Business EvolutionBusiness Evolution– Expansions and/or contractions of employmentExpansions and/or contractions of employment– Closing of businessesClosing of businesses– New business formationNew business formation– In-migration of businessesIn-migration of businesses– RelocationsRelocations

The DELTASIM ProcessThe DELTASIM Process

• Monte Carlo style simulation operates on Monte Carlo style simulation operates on individual agent choicesindividual agent choices– School location choice (school need)School location choice (school need)– Residential location choice (HH)Residential location choice (HH)– Group Quarter location choiceGroup Quarter location choice– Hotel-Motel location choiceHotel-Motel location choice– Employer location choiceEmployer location choice

• Transition matrices & probabilities for Transition matrices & probabilities for agent changesagent changes

The DELTASIM ProcessThe DELTASIM Process

• Construction of New Units Forecast through Construction of New Units Forecast through Builder’s Utilities for Residential & Builder’s Utilities for Residential & CommercialCommercial

• Evaluates available properties forEvaluates available properties for– RedevelopmentRedevelopment– New DevelopmentNew Development– SubdivisionSubdivision

• All parcel and builder attributes available including All parcel and builder attributes available including accessibilityaccessibility

• Available (undeveloped) real estate assessed based on Available (undeveloped) real estate assessed based on historic profile of developer choiceshistoric profile of developer choices

• Considers need and historic vacancy ratesConsiders need and historic vacancy rates• Considers development policiesConsiders development policies• AccessibilityAccessibility

Integrated with the TBRPMIntegrated with the TBRPM

• TodayToday– Uses LOS indicators that can be interactive as DELTASIM Uses LOS indicators that can be interactive as DELTASIM

is completely coded in Cube Voyageris completely coded in Cube Voyager– A manual process to put LOS indicators (SKIMS) into A manual process to put LOS indicators (SKIMS) into

DELTASIM. Once the process is fully validated, it may DELTASIM. Once the process is fully validated, it may optionally operate as part of the TBRPM job stream.optionally operate as part of the TBRPM job stream.

– ““Rolls up” results to ZDATA formatRolls up” results to ZDATA format

• TomorrowTomorrow– Turn off “roll up” process to provides individual Turn off “roll up” process to provides individual

households/persons/employers/employees for eventual households/persons/employers/employees for eventual activity-based modelingactivity-based modeling

– Add auto ownership, worker, income evolution models Add auto ownership, worker, income evolution models for householdsfor households

– Add property pricing (land rent) modulesAdd property pricing (land rent) modules

Next StepsNext Steps

• Re-estimate parameters, coefficientsRe-estimate parameters, coefficients• CalibrateCalibrate• Validation & sensitivity testingValidation & sensitivity testing• Beta testing with some regionally Beta testing with some regionally

significant projectssignificant projects• Finalize documentation & develop user Finalize documentation & develop user

guideguide• ““Roll it out” for local review and national Roll it out” for local review and national

critiquecritique

Let’s Take a Look at Her!Let’s Take a Look at Her!