Delphi Techno Forecast South Korea

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ec no ogy orecast ng an ann ng:

Taeyoung ShinSeoul, Korea


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Introduction

Koreas experience in technology foresight Koreas S&T system and evolution of TF

Main feature of this presentation includes;

Exploratory method for exploring the path of technological

develo ment,

Normative approach determining the directions of future research


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Koreas S&T System

MOST: lead agency in S&T policy-making

Major players: MOST, MOCIE, and MIC

Lack of workable institutional mechanism Increases in needs for rational approach in

formulation of national R&D programs

Coordination of resource allocation


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R&D Management Agencies

R&D Mgmt Start year of

Agency

Programs

KISTEP Various areas 1982

Science andTechnology

(MOST) KOSEF

Target-orientedbasic 1987

researc

Commerce, Industryand Ener ITEP

Industrialtechnolo ies 1987

(MOCIE) RACER Alternative energy 1988

Information and Information andCommunication

(MIC)

IITA communicationtechnologies

1991


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Evolution of TF Activities

Rapid increase in S&T investment has brought the concept ofmanagemen nc u ng , pr or y-se ng, eva ua on

and control since early 1990s.

Methodological development is continuously required.A model case for national R&D programs: Han Projects

formulated in 1992

R&D organizations focuses on their respective situations. Such government efforts stimulate S&T activit ies of the

private sector


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S&T Foresight: HAN (G7) Projects


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Framework of S&T Policy-Making

Communication &Coordination

Setting Priorit ies &Selecting Key TechsS&T Monitoring &Forecasting

Consensus


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HAN Projects: Preliminary stage

Coordination and communications between

Constructing G7 Committee and subcommittees

5 Committees

2-4 subcommittees

n eac area


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HAN Projects: Phase I

S&T monitoring

technology

Selecting candidate technologies :214 technologies

national goal

Product-oriented technologies

Fundamental and generic technologies


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HAN Projects: Phase II

Screening candidate technologies

Undertaking survey

About 440 scientists and technologists

Major survey parameters

Potentials of economic application

Full-cycle R&D through collaboration

Need for inter-ministerial support

- , .


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HAN Projects: Key technologies

Product-Oriented Techs

Highly integrated semi-

Fundamental and Generic Techs

New materials inconductor

Integrated services and

data network

information service,

electronics and energy

Next eneration

High definit ion TV New machine and

transportation systemsincluding machines and

Advanced production

system

New functional bio-

materials

technology

New energy resources

ew a om c reac or an

verification


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HAN Projects: Phase III

Surveys on component technologies in each area

Applicants organized research teams by themselves

Review and evaluation of proposals by specialists panels

Confirmin the f inals and allocatin bud ets


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HAN Projects: Phase IV

Control and evaluation of R&D performance in the process

Determine whether to continue the projects

Running training programs for R&D management to increase

effectiveness of R&D activit ies


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HAN Projects: Remarks

Concerted Actions are required.

-

Continuing monitoring R&D process and R&D management


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Korean Delphi


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Needs for Koreas Own Delphi Study

Technological progress of one country depends on

working in the S&T community within a border primarily.

Technological concerns and attentions of the Korean experts

With different endowments, different countries may take

different strategies for their own technological development.


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rgan za on o orean e p

Expert PanelExpert (A) Expert (B)Anonymity

TF Committee

Sub-Committees

Moderator

Forecast Feedback

Feedback Forecast


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Del hi Procedure

Preliminary Stage

Brain-storming to collect ideas of technologies to be forecasted; sending

blank papers to 25,000 experts , ,

9,000 topics to be forecasted

Pre-Foresi ht

constructing the TF committee and 12 sub-committees

Reviewing 9,000 topics and selecting 1,127 topics

Reviewing the questionnaires

Main Foresi htTwo-round Delphi by sending the entire set of questionnaires to 5,000

experts; 1,600 returned in the first round and 1,200 in the second

opcs a e o e secon ques onnares: oae , opcs

Each expert answered less than 50 topics of two areas on average


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reas: rs orean e p. ,

2. Production (115 topics)

3. Materials (131 topics)4. Fine chemicals (51 topics)

5. Life science (92 topics)

. ,

7. Medical care and health (117 topics)8. Energy (87 topics)

9. Environment and safety (85 topics)

10. Minerals and water resources (50 topics)

11. Urbanizat ion and construct ion 62 to ics12. Transportation (80 topics)

13. Marine and earth science (46 topics)

. s ronomy an space op cs

15. Ultra technology (26 topics)


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reas: econ orean e p.

2. Communication (40 topics)

3. Machinery and production (88 topics)4. Transportation (64 topics)

5. Air transportat ion, astronomy and space (61 topics)

.

7. Marine and earth science (57 topics)8. Energy, resources and nuclear power (117 topics)

9. Urbanizat ion and construction (65 topics)

10. Materials (104 topics)

11. Fine chemicals 86 to ics12. Life science (91 topics)

13. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries (88 topics)

. e ca care an ea op cs

15. Ultra technology (30 topics)


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urvey arame ers. ,

2. Degree of importance: high, medium, low and unnecessary

-.

intervals

4. Probabil ity of real izat ion: high, medium and low

5. Current level of R&D: five levels by scaling the level of the worldleader (=100%) by 20 percent.

6. Method performing R&D: led by industry or government, joint

operation between industry, academy and NPRIs, and international

coo eration multi le choice

7. Constraints of realization: technological, institutional, social/cultural,

funds, manpower, and others (multiple choice)


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Some Attentions to Delphi Study e -prepare s u y p an

Database of experts and selection of experts (e.g. co-nomination method):

Do not have to focus on high degree of expertise

Include interest groups as many as possible

Partici ants should understand the ur ose and rocess of

Delphi

Management of the Delphi panel

Dissemination further research of Delphi results


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Flow of S&T Planning Activities

National Goal

Socio-EconomicForecast

Future Environment

S&T Capabili tyTechnology

ForecastEvaluation PastS&T Targets

S&T Strategies

Performance

Programming Major Areas S&T SystemR&Dand PolicyResources

Direction of Future R&D


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Priorities Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term

Competitiveness

Network System Network System

Publi

Survival

Coexistence Coexistence Coexistence

Basic Research Basic Research Basic Research

Bottom --Human & environ-

---

P

TopCompetitiveness Human & environ-

ment-friendly techs

Human & environ-

ment-friendly techsrivate

MiddleHuman and environ-

ment-friendly techs

Competitiveness

Network System

Competitiveness

-- --


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1 The stationar state is assumed over next 20 ears. That is,there would be no drastic changes in the Korean society.

(2) Those 1174 topics represent necessary technologies for S&Teveopmen n orea. can e sa a necessarytechnologies will appear additionally in time, but at the timeoint of forecastin the are the technolo ies in consideration

upon which the expected time path can be drawn out.(3) Presuming an imaginary world leader country so that a

comparson o oreas curren pos on can e ma e. uc a

world leader country is in fact a combination of several

.(4) Outliersbeyond 15yearsarediscarded inestimation.

(5) The S&Tdevelopment path is approximated linearly. The linear

path will show the development pattern on average of the

entire timeperiod.


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NTi = a0 + a1T + e ,

Where i = Korea, World leader

T = t i m e


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All areas: Korea1500

1200

900

First Delphi

600

Second Delphi

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


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All areas: First Del hi1500

1200World leader

900

600

Korea

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


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All areas: Second Del hi1200

900 World leader

600

300

Korea

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


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Electronics information & communications: Korea250

200

150

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


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Electronics information & commun ication: First Del hi

120

140

100World leader

80

40 Korea

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


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Electronics information & communication: Second Del hi

120

140

100World leader

80

40

Korea20

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


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Concluding Remarks

In various reasons, important to produce decision informa-

tion, thou h costl and time-consumin in its own wa Purpose of the foresight studies

Intan ible benefits from foresi ht activities

Learning effectConsensus building

When diversified, concerted actions are necessary for

successful implementation of S&T policies Recognit ion of S&T policy-making as a social process, based

on cultural, social, political and economic backgrounds

Management-integrating capabili ty


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Thank ou !

Delphi Techno Forecast South Korea

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