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Delphi MethodDelphi Method

Presented By : Farzad Minooei

Graduate School of

Management and

Economics

Contents

Overview2

Objectives4

Application33

Definition31

Technique35

Contents

Benefits37

Outcomes6

Delphi Method is a method for structuring a group

communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.

based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.

Definition31

In the standard version: the experts answer questionnaires in two or

more rounds after each round, a facilitator provides an

anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments.

experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel.

Overview32

It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer.

Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion(e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus).

Overview32

Use in forecasting

To deal with a complex problem

As a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making

Application3

To ensure that all possible options are identified

To estimate the impact & consequences of options

To examine & estimate the acceptability of options

Objectives34

Orientation: Six Phases in Delphi :

• Formulation of Issues• Exposing Options• Determining initial options on Issues especially

areas of agreement & disagreement• Exploring reasons for disagreement• Evaluating such reasons• Re-Evaluating of Options in the Light of above

First 3 Phases constitute the crucial stage of preparation.

Technique5

Selecting & retaining a Panel: Size of the panel Selecting a member as an expert Attrition rate over several rounds of

consultation

Technique5

Selecting & retaining a Panel: Selection member as an expert :

• Key Issue:– Nature of participants Interest– Depth & range of expertise

• Two basic type of participants:– Referees : disinterested experts on topic – Advocate : their knowledge derive from their Participant– Diversity between “Referee” & “Advocate”

» To avoid Uniformity of response

• Participant’s Different degree of Experience on topics

Technique5

Designing the Questionnaire : Pre-test : for balance between closed-Open

Questionnaire. Take 30 min till 5 hours to complete

Technique5

Scaling Judgments: Participants are asked to make evaluations

about specific propositions & not simply choose from a number of alternatives.

Technique5

Progressing through successive rounds: 5 rounds of Delphi may be necessary to meet

all its objectives

Technique5

Each grouping (Sponsor-Consultant-Expert) might be seen as stakeholders.

Technique5

Identifying the degree of consensus or dissensus

Specifying the range of different positions

Revealing the rationales which lie behind the judgments

Outcomes36

Delphi is suitable for problem does not lend itself to precise analytical

technique but benefit from subjective judgments on

collective basis

Suitable in conditions of Uncertainty

It is more appropriate when it is not practicable or desirable to bring experts together

Benefits7

Delphi roles as a forum for exploration of Ideas & the strength of opinion

It brings wide range of experts from different backgrounds

It enables disagreement in a constructive forum & ensures equal participation

Benefits7

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Graduate School of

Management and

Economics