DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANS€¦ · to fully fund and make North East Link a reality > $6.6...
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DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANSVICTORIAN BUDGET 19/20
TIM PALLAS MPTREASURER OF VICTORIA
31 MAY 2019
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VICTORIA’S CONTRIBUTION TO NATIONAL GROWTH, SELECTED INDICATORS
VICTORIA’S ECONOMY IS POWERING THE NATION
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
GSP/GDP Public demand Employment Full-time employment
per c
ent
1990-91 to 2013-14 2014-15 to 2017-18
Victoria's share of Australian GDP, 2017-18
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PRIVATE AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT CONTRIBUTION TO VICTORIA'S REAL GSP GROWTH
INVESTMENT IS BOOSTING GROWTH
2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
Average 0.9ppt
Average 0.1ppt
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Note: Excludes dwelling investment
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CUMULATIVE VICTORIAN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SINCE NOVEMBER 2014
MORE THAN 450 000 JOBS CREATED SINCE 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
Nov-2014 Nov-2015 Nov-2016 Nov-2017 Nov-2018
Empl
oym
ent (
'000
)
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EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY, 2013-14 TO 2017-18
-20 0 20 40 60 80
Wholesale TradeMining
UtilitiesFinancial
ICTAdministrative services
ManufacturingAgricultureReal estate
Public administrationArts
Other servicesTransportEducation
Retail TradeProfessional and technical services
HospitalityHealth
Construction
persons '000
GROWING JOBS ACROSS INDUSTRIES
4Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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VICTORIA’S PARTICIPATION RATE, TREND
MORE PEOPLE ARE ENTERING THE LABOUR FORCE
5
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Per c
ent
Victoria AustraliaSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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FORECASTS OF VICTORIA’S REAL GSP AND REAL GSP PER CAPITA
BOOSTING LIVING STANDARDS FOR VICTORIANS
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Treasury and Finance
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
per c
ent
Real GSP per capita growth Real GSP growth
6
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GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
RECORD LEVELS OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
Source: Department of Treasury and Finance
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Average GII, 2005-06 to 2014-15, $4.9 billion
Average GII, 2015-16 to 2018-19, $9.6 billion
Average GII, 2015-16 to 2018-19, $13.4 billion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22
$ bi
llion
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OPERATING RESULT AND NET DEBT
STRONG FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Source: Department of Treasury and Finance
8
1.2
2.7 2.7 2.31.1 1.0 1.5
3.94.9
6.0 5.83.8 4.6
5.1
5.1
8.3
9.5 9.8 10.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23
per c
ent o
f GSP
$ bi
llion
Operating result (LHS) Historical net debt to GSP (RHS) Projected net debt to GSP (RHS)
Budget and forward estimates
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INFRASTRUCTURE SHARE VS POPULATION SHARE (COMPARABLE STATES) FIVE YEARS TO 2022-23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NSW VIC QLD WA SA
Population Share Infrastructure Share
VICTORIA IS MISSING OUT ON A FAIR SHARE
Sources: 2019-20 Commonwealth Budget; Department of Treasury and Finance.
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This year’s Budget provides $348 million in tax relief, including:
> $173 million to cut the regional employer rate of payroll tax from 50 per cent to 25 per cent of the metropolitan rate by 2022-23
> $87 million to lift the payroll tax-free threshold to $700 000 by 2022-23
> $69 million to provide a 50 per cent discount on stamp duty for commercial and industrial properties transactions in regional Victoria by 2022-23
> $7 million for expanding the payroll tax exemption to all types of parental leave
CREATING JOBS AND WORKING WITH BUSINESS
10
$246 million
$745 million
$348 million
0
500
1,000
$ m
illio
n
2011-12 to 2014-152015-16 to 2018-192019-20 Budget
TOTAL BUSINESS TAX CUTS
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TAXATION AND ROYALTY REVENUE PER CAPITA
VICTORIA’S TAX SETTINGS REMAIN HIGHLY COMPETITIVE
Sources: Department of Treasury and Finance, Interstate Budget and Budget Update 11
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20
2020
-21
2021
-22
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
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DELIVERING BETTER SERVICES
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The 2019/20 Budget includes $11.4 billion in output commitments:> $882 million to kickstart the rollout of three-year-old kinder for every Victorian child
> $545 million to expand Solar Homes, as part of a $1.3 billion investment over 10 years, to reach 770 000 homes
> $322 million to begin the rollout of free dental for students at our government schools
> $235 million for court improvements across Victoria, including the redevelopment of Bendigo's law courts
> $218 million to make our schools more inclusive, with more funding to support children with disability and additional needs
> $185 million to continue implementing the Royal Commission’s recommendations
> $173 million to make sure more Victorians get the help they need
> $109 million to support Aboriginal Victorians
> $58 million to expand our School Breakfast Clubs and make sure more Victorian kids are learning on a full stomach
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INFRASTRUCTURE VICTORIANS NEED
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The 2019/20 Budget includes a number of capital commitments:
> $15.8 billion to fully fund and make North East Link a reality
> $6.6 billion to remove another 25 of our most dangerous and congested level crossings, with 75 crossings gone for good by 2025
> $3.4 billion to transform the suburban train network, delivering a massive upgrade to the Sunbury Line, duplicating the Cranbourne Line and Stage Two of the Hurstbridge Line
> $1.8 billion to increase capacity across the Victorian prison system
> $1.8 billion to keep building, upgrading and modernising schools across Victoria
> $1.5 billion total investment for the new Footscray Hospital
> $209 million to build 1 000 new public housing properties across our state
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INVESTING IN EVERY CORNER OF THE STATE
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DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANSVICTORIAN BUDGET 19/20
TIM PALLAS MPTREASURER OF VICTORIA
31 MAY 2019