FEDERAL MINISTRY OF POWER WORKS & HOUSINGNATIONAL SUMMIT ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING

Presentation On

By

Simon Gusah MPIA, ANIA

CSIS, ABU Visiting Researcher

Tuesday 28th June, 2016

Ahmadu Bello University

Centre for Spatial Information Sciences

CSIS

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Supported by:

Introduction

Structure of the PresentationCONTENTS

1. IntroductionBackground/Context

2. Problem StatementDemographic Dividend or Disaster?

3. Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, ZariaSpontaneous Urbanisation in Action

4. Challenge as Change OpportunityA Resilience Urban Planning Approach

5. Land for Affordable HousingImplications for Practice & Policy

6. Conclusions & Recommendationsi) Embracing the Informalii) Enabling Local Land Marketsiii) Defining ‘Affordable’ Housing in Nigeria

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Introduction - Background/Context

AHS2016: What should be our focus?

VERY-HIGH> N15m p.a.

HIGH

MIDDLE

LOW

VERY-LOW< N600k p.a.

Housing Market Income Segmentation (Adapted from Richard Esin, MD/CEO FMBN).

[This graphic is illustrative, not factual %ages; intended to demonstrate housing needs & inequalities]

‘Nominal’ Segmentation ‘Proportionate’ Segmentation

AHS Target Group?

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1%?

3%?

6%?

10%?

80%?

[i.e. this model names the segments] [This model illustrates population weighting]

Introduction

Problem Statement (I)

Basemap: Max Lock Centre, University of Westminster (2011)

Desert Encroachment, Water Shortage

Sea Level Rise N0 5Km

SAMARU-UNIVERSITY

SABON GARI

GRA & CBD

OLD WALLED CITY

TUDUN WADA

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Map: CSIS, ABU Zaria (2016)

“Climate Change + Urban Expansion”

ZUA, defined by Urquhart (1977), covers 157.8 sq KmBuilt up footprint of Zaria, 1975, 41.2 sq. Km (26.1%). 2013 built up footprint x2 to 86.1 sq. Km (54.6%). The city’s expansion has almost all been unplanned urban sprawl due to population growth.

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Introduction

Problem Statement (II)

YEAR PopulationMedian

Age

Rural/Urban Split

Formal/InformalUrban?

1965 50, 238,570 18.9 80-20% ?

1990 95,617,350 17.5 65-35% ?

2015 183,523,432 17.7 48-52% ~80%

2040 350,720,062 19.8 34-66% ?60%

2050 440,355,062 21.4 29-71% ?50%

Data Source: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division – World Population Prospects 2012 Revision (Medium Fertility Variant) http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index.shtml

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“Nigeria’s Population Doubles in Size Every 25 Years, as it Urbanises”

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Problematizing Our Population Potential (POPP!)

A Demographic-Dividend or Disaster?

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Food for Thought: Nigeria’s Population has Doubled, TWICE (+300%) in my 50-year life

Date of Photo1969

Date of Presentation

2016

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

A Nigerian Urban Village at Work (I)

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Only bridge across gully

Military/Farm Land

Hayin DogoCommunity

IDC (Industrial Development

Centre)

N

Map Source: Max Lock Centre (2011)

ZARIA

N

Nigeria’s Major Urban Centres

Hayin Danyaro is an urban community of almost 300 occupied compounds (approx. 1,500 pop.) in the Samaru area of Zaria (pop. approx. 1m) in Nigeria. It has spontaneously grown out of the expansion of the Samaru-University district. Zaria is the second largest urban area of Kaduna State, after the capital city of Kaduna. Hayin Danyaro is typical of the spontaneous (informal) urban growth taking place on Nigeria’s urban fringes. Case Study Location: Approximately 260 Kms north of Nigeria’s capital city, Abuja.

LAGOS

ABUJA

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

Background Research by Prof. A. Ahmed

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ENABLING SLUM UPGRADING: THE TRIPLE THERAPY APPROACH IN THE HAYIN DANYARO

COMMUNITY BASED PROJECT, SAMARU – ZARIA.

Being a presentation at the round table on innovative policies,experiences and perspectives made at the National Housingand Slum Summit under the theme “Developing a Nationalstrategy for Mass Housing Delivery and slum upgrading”,organized by the Federal Ministry of Lands, Housing and UrbanDevelopment in collaboration with the Federal HousingAuthority and the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria heldbetween 21st – 23rd October, 2013 at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel,Abuja.

ByDr. A. Ahmed FNITP

Coordinator, Center for Spatial Information Sciences, Department of Urban and Regional Planning ABU Zaria-Nigeria.

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

Background Research by Prof. A. Ahmed

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“Slums occur within socio-spatial and economic settings, and eliminating them can become wishful thinking without

interfacing social, economic and spatial policies”.

Spatial(Environment)

Liveable

Social EconomicEquitable

Viable

Sustainable

Development

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

Background Research by Prof. A. Ahmed

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PARTICIPATORY FRAMEWORK FOR THE SCHEME

Hayin Danyaro

CBO

Academia (ABU)

Corporate Banks, etc

Professional Groups NITP,

NIA, etc

State and Local

Governments

Other institutions,

Military, railway etc

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

Background Research by Prof. A. Ahmed

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CONCLUSION

The triple therapy approach rests on the following arguments:

a. Slums are indicators of shortcomings in the economy.

b. Mere physical removal of slums equates to treatment ofsymptoms rather than causes.

c. Responsive economic policies needed to empowerhouseholds to own and maintain homes.

d. Helping households with formal titles to use as collateral isbasic argument. But most families lack knowledge and skillsto negotiate land rights or package investment proposals.

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

A Nigerian Urban Village at Work (II)

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CSIS Supported HANDY Access Laneway Project

3m wide ‘rat-run’to be Expanded to 8m

HANDY Access Laneway

Proposed site for Community Market

“Urban Acupuncture” (Jaime Lerner 2014)Small-scale, targeted urban interventions, which release embedded social and economic energies.

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Case Study: Hayin Danyaro, Zaria

A Nigerian Urban Village at Work (III)

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Hayin Danyaro (Adjusted) Land Purchase Price Matrix (1969 to 2011)

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Challenges as Change Opportunities

A Resilience Urban Planning Approach

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Resilience: A General Definition“Resilience is the capacity of a social-ecological system (SES) to absorb or withstand perturbations and other stressors such that the system remains within the same regime, essentially maintaining its structure and functions. It describes the degree to which the system is capable of self-organization, learning & adaptation

Source: The Resilience Alliance. http://www.resalliance.org/index.php/resilience

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Challenges as Change Opportunities

Implications for Practice & Policy

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Adapting to Challenges: Changing to fit with local limitations/realities.

Informal Economy DominantMost daily transactions take place out of sight/reach of ‘government’

Lack of Basic Service CapacitySWM, Traffic Management, Utilities, Public Transport

No City-level AdministrationCity Administration & services divided between State and LGAs

No Detailed Record-keepingAd-hoc Management; No Learning, Data, KPIs – no consistent framework

Problems/Limitations Opportunities/Strategies

Learn from Local Systems Networks & Operations. Attune Government to ‘Peoples’ informal ways

Government should Limit Scope of services, focus on core/basics; i.e. Revenue Generation & Maintenance

Governor can Exercise RightLand Use Act: Designate Urban Areas and create appropriate City Structure

Engage Local (Community) LeadersMai Unguwa etc. collect local data, for upward official collation & analysis

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Conclusions & Recommendations

Defining Housing ‘Affordability’ (I)

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1. Embracing the Informal

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Embracing the Informal ‘Market’

Most Nigerians, most of the time, can and do live and operate outside of the government’s knowledge or influence.

The (informal) ‘market’ finds solutions for most of the daily challenges of life (education, health, transport, water, electricity etc.) and this dynamic should be nurtured & adapted, not crushed.

Formal solutions should only be employed if/when they produce better outcomes, not normatively or unreflectively imposed from top-down.

Recommendation 1: Informal Market Reform

Government should Embrace the Informal;

Lead or Follow; Always Seek Accommodation.

Conclusions & Recommendations

Defining Housing ‘Affordability’ (II)

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2. Enabling Local Land Markets

Government the Great Enabler The Post-’National Cake’ Era Demands a Paradigm-Shift from Government as ‘The Great Provider’ towards Government as ‘The Great Enabler’

Trust ‘The People’Development has been defined as:

‘Catching People Doing Something Right’

Level Playing FieldIf all Cities have a ‘100% C of O’ Policy, the Land Market will WORK

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Government’s Role:

Changing From

‘Great Provider’

To

‘Great Enabler’

GOVERNANCE REDEFINEDRecommendation 2: Enablement Strategy

Trust the People, Manage the Market;

Least-Cost, Least-Intervention Approach

Conclusions & Recommendations

Defining Housing ‘Affordability’ (III)

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3. Defining ‘Affordable’ Housing in the Nigerian Context

’Affordability’ is ContextualEach Segment of the Housing Market has its own Threshold and Definition.

Land ‘Allocation’ Distorts MarketsGovernment Intervention and Eminent Domain should be Minimal/Necessary

Top-Down or Bottom-Up? No. Both.Drive DOWN a Formal/Institutional approach, whilst Capacity-Building UP

Housing Reflects Wider EconomyHousing, Affordable or Otherwise, does not Operate Independently of Economy

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So, What is

Affordable Housing

In the

Nigerian Context?

IT DEPENDS!

Recommendation 3: Context-Dependent

We should take a Case-by-Case Approach;

Tackle Issues Relevant to each Segment.

Thanks for your attention!

Simon Gusah MPIA, ANIA

Visiting Researcher/Urban PlannerCentre for Spatial Information Sciences (CSIS)

Department of Urban & Regional PlanningAhmadu Bello University, Zaria NIGERIA

E: Simon.gusah@urbanbaseconsulting.comM: +234 803053 6818

Principal Researcher: Prof Adamu Ahmed

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Reading List &

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Reading List &

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Reading List &

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Kessides C, (2007) The urban transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: challenges and opportunities. Environment and Planning C 25.4 (2007): 466.

Lempert BL, (2007) Asking Questions of the Data: Memo Writing in the Grounded Theory Tradition. In A. Bryant & K. Charmaz (Eds.) “The Sage handbook of grounded theory”, pp. 245-264. Sage.

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