Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012 What is a Pro-Business Agenda? Whats at Stake? ...

Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012

What is a “Pro-Business” Agenda? What’s at Stake?

Congress: US House & US Senate The White House

What’s the Industry Impact & Involvement?


What is a “Pro-Business Agenda?” It’s one that…

– IS a reflection of core positions on issues of environmental, labor, postal and tax issues, but

– IS responsive to ever-changing political and economic dynamics– IS often collaborative, combining the best ideas regardless of

partisan ideology– IS dedicated to promoting the value of print and debunking

public relations myths about the industry Overall, it is one that supports growth & success in graphic

communications industry by advocating for legislation that both enhances and protects the business opportunities and climate for printers nationwide.


U.S. House of RepresentativesAll 435 seats up for reelection.Current make-up

R’s 242; D’s 193Dems need 25 seats to flip party control

TrendsRedistricting based on 2010 census – likely a “wash”Loss of moderates (especially Democrats)Expected “correction” of 10-12 seats from historic “wave” election of House GOP in 2010 (+80 seat pick up)


U.S. House of RepresentativesBattleground Districts

Approximately 25-50 “toss up” seats across country“Orphan seats” in IL, NY, CA biggest trouble spots for GOP

What to Watch – Generic Ballot Poll (2/14/11 – 6/4/2012)


U.S. House of RepresentativesGeneric Ballot Poll

Current: GOP 44.2% Dems 43% Pre-Election 2010 GOP 51%Dems 42%

Predictions…House stays in solid GOP control w/ expected loss <20GOP likely loses net 10-14 seatsSpeaker Boehner/Majority Leader Cantor stay in place

…and drive a Congressionally-focused legislative agenda in a Romney Administration

Dem Leader Pelosi stays in charge? Fate unclear.Could see a leadership shake-up in Dem Caucus


U.S. SenateOne third of Senate seats up for reelection.Current make-up

D’s 51 (+2 Independents Lieberman/Bernie Sanders) = 53; R’s 47

GOP need 4 seats OR 3 seats +White House (VP) to flip party control

Trends11 Senate retirements to date (6 D’s (+1 Ind); 5 R’s)Lieberman (CT), Ben Nelson (NE), Snowe (ME) retirements leave major void of centrist Senators

Anti-establishment voter behavior (a.k.a., The Palin Effect?)


Sarah as the Political Madonna (staying power)?

The skill of remaining relevant...? The art of personal

reinvention…? The ability to fill arenas and

stadiums…? The power of just one

blockbuster name…? The “material girl”…?

Hmmm…?


U.S. Senate Trends (continued)

SuperPACsAnd “pacts” against the SuperPACs (MA Senate race)

SuperPAC spending on TV ads in battleground presidential states impacts downballot Senate race

Top 10 Funniest SuperPAC Names

1. Talkin’ Smack PAC2. I Ride Inside – The Pets Against Romney Committee3. Cats for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow4. Buck Up to Beef Up America5. Just Drink the Koolaid6. Raptors for Jesus7. Same vs the Machine8. WOLF PAC(Winning Our Liberty and Future ) 9. Joe Six PAC10. Americans for More Rhombus

1. 4. Cats for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow2. 5. Science!3. 6. Buck Up to Beef Up America4. 7. DogPAC5. 8. Peeps PAC6. 9. Winning Our Liberty and Future (Wolf) PAC7. 10. I Ride Inside – The Pets Against Romney Committee8. 11. Same vs the Machine9. 12. Why Not ZoidPAC?10. 13. Just Drink the Koolaid11. 14. The Internet12. 15. A SuperPAC13. 16. Joe Six PAC14. 17. Americans for More Rhombus15.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76797.html#ixzz1wHilYmTO

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76797.html#ixzz1wHilYmTO


U.S. Senate: Battleground States

GRAY=No RaceDARK BLUE= Safe DemLIGHT BLUE=Likely DemDARK RED=Safe GOPLIGHT RED=Likely GOPGREEN=Safe IndependentYELLOW=Toss Up SeatsARROWS=Likely Party Flip


US Senate: Battleground States Massachusetts

Sen. Scott Brown v. Elizabeth Warren (Harvard professor)

43.5% 42.8%

US Senate: Battleground States Virginia

Tim Kaine (Dem Nat’l Cmte Chair) v. George Allen (former Senator)

45% 45.2%


US Senate: Battleground States Wisconsin

Tommy Thompson (former Gov) v. Rep. Tammy Baldwin

48.3% 40.7%

US Senate: Battleground States Missouri

Claire McCaskill v. Steelman 46.5% 43% Brunner45.5% 44.5% Akin 46.5% 43.5%


US Senate: Battleground States New Mexico

Heather Wilson v. Heinrich 47% 42.5% Balderas 43% 43%

US Senate: Battleground States Montana

Sen. Jon Tester v. Rep. Denny Rehberg

48% 45.5%


US Senate: Battleground States Nevada

Sen. Dean Heller v. Rep. Shelley Berkley

46.7% 42.3%

US Senate: Battleground States Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown v. Josh Mandel (State Treasurer)

46.5% 38.8%


US SenateWhat to Watch

If you want to see the balance of power flip from Dems to GOP…

Predictions…True toss up! Split between majority will shrink to a razor thin margin – perhaps one or two seat majority by either party.

Loss of centrists plus tighter political party margins will make compromise – the hallmark of the Senate – less likely.


White HouseGAME ON!


Obama Head-to-Head 47.2% Favorable View 51.6% Unfavorable View 43.4% Battleground States

OH 47.2% FL 44.8% VA 47.2% NH 48.7% PA 48% NC 47.5%

Romney Head-to-Head 43.6% Favorable View 39.9% Unfavorable View 41.3% Battleground States

OH 42.3% FL 45.3% VA 44.7% NH 42.3% PA 40.7% NC 45%


The White HouseWhat to Watch…

The key three data points (at mid-summer 2012):1.Unemployment Rate

Anything above 8% is trouble for Obama. Current rate: 8.1% (April)

2.POTUS Approval/Disapproval RateAnything above 50% disapproval is trouble for Obama. Current rate is: Approve 48.4% Disapprove: 47.2%

3.Right Track/Wrong Track PollMood of the country correlates to “throw the bums out” voter

behavior. Asks voters if they think country is heading in right or wrong direction.

Current poll is: Right: 33.8% Wrong: 58.5%


The White HouseVeep-Stakes – Whose on the short list?*

1. Rob Portman – Senator from Ohio2. Bobby Jindal – Governor of Louisiana3. Marco Rubio – Senator from Florida4. Paul Ryan – Congressman from Wisconsin5. Mitch Daniels – Governor of Indiana6. Bob McDonnell – Governor of Virginia7. Chris Christie – Governor of New Jersey8. Kelly Ayotte – Senator from New Hampshire


The White HouseVeep-Stakes – The Dark Horse Choices…

Sen. Pat Toomey (PA) Sen. John Thune (SD)Gov. Susana Martinez (NM) Gov. Brian Sandoval (NV)

Former Gov. Mike HuckabeeRep. Luis Fortuño (Puerto Rico)

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA)

Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012 The White House

More to Watch…The “Bain” of Romney’s Existence?

Who wins the debate on defining the costs/benefits of “private equity” – and who will claim the mantle on capitalism?

The Solyndra Saga?Who wins the debate on whether job creation via private/public

investment is the right direction – or too risky?

Religion – A Non-Issue in 2012?A far-right SuperPAC floated Jeremiah Wright; it’s a lead balloon in

2012. The Mormon question? Unanswered, but waning.

As Goes Greece…and Spain…and France…Global economic policy is in the face of general voters like never

before – how badly will it scare them?

Big Labor voter motivation in Big States?Wisconsin’s long national nightmare of union referendums & politician

recalls may be moving to another big state – Michigan.


Industry Impact on Key IssuesPostal Policy

Obama: Neutral GOP: Neutral

Labor PolicyObama: ----- GOP: +++++

Tax PolicyObama: --- GOP: +++++

Health CareObama: ----- GOP: +++++

Environmental/Regulatory PolicyObama: ---- GOP: +++++


Industry InvolvementWhat can printers do to get involved in Election 2012?

Visit www.printersvote.org (launching Sept1st). Complete voter resource guide includes candidate profiles and voting records & tools like absentee ballot applications, polling location directory, and voter registration.

Contribute to PrintPAC. 100 percent of contributions go to electing pro-print, pro-business candidates for federal office.

Participate in “Put Ink on Paper – Printer’s Vote ‘12” non-partisan, civic responsibility program sponsored by PrintPAC. PrintPAC contributors receive posters, bumper stickers, and other collateral Get Out the Vote material to encourage voting among the industry.

http://www.printersvote.org/


Industry Involvement I want to invest in the industry’s future. How can I learn more

about PrintPAC?PrintPAC brochure (available here at Offset & Beyond)Online at www.printpaconline.org

How much do printers contribute?All help is appreciated, but the most effective contributions are about $40 per month. In other words, a lot less than an OHSA or EPA fine or a walloping postal rate increase.

I’m sold on the ROI of PrintPAC! What’s the first step to participate?

Fill out a “Prior Approval Form” to let us know you’re interested. We’ll email you w/ more info.

http://www.printpaconline.org/


For more information on the industry’s political & legislative advocacy, please contact:

Printing Industries of America601 13th Street, NW, Suite 350 South

Washington, DC 20005

PH: (202) 730-7970 FX: (202) 730-7981E-mail: [email protected]

Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012 What is a Pro-Business Agenda? Whats at Stake? ...

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