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Deepwater E&P in a Global Context - · PDF fileBP – – xxxx – – x x COP...
Transcript of Deepwater E&P in a Global Context - · PDF fileBP – – xxxx – – x x COP...
May 26, 2010
See Disclosure Appendix of this report for important Disclosures and Analyst Certifications
Deepwater E&P in a Global Context
Neil McMahon, Ph.D.
Senior Analyst
Sanford C. Bernstein
+44-207-170-5002
Global Integrated Oils2
Discussion: Deepwater E&P in a Global Context
Who is finding what and where?
Hot exploration plays and company strategies
Impact of the GoM spill on the outlook for Deepwater Exploration
Global Integrated Oils3
Recent Exploration Success Has Been Dominated by NOCs & E&Ps
Source: Bernstein analysis, IHS, Rigzone
27 39 35 42
69
14097 111
240
243
232 211
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009
Num
ber o
f exp
lora
tion
disc
over
ies
IOC's NOC's E&P's
Exploration success in the last few years has been dominated by NOCs & E&Ps – not IOCs
However, recently most Integrateds have talked about returning to exploration, with increased capex in that area
Global Integrated Oils4
Companies Are Still Finding Hydrocarbons In Diverse Locations
There has been plenty of exploration success, however, with 1,500 discoveries across 86 countries since 2006
Although discoveries have been of varying sizes, even last year significant finds were made in GoM, Brazil, Iraq, Australia etc.
020406080
100120140160180
Aus
tralia
Chi
naE
gypt
Arg
entin
aIn
done
sia
Indi
aC
olom
bia
Nor
way
Uni
ted
Bra
zil
Turk
eyLi
bya
Mex
ico
Rus
sia
Alg
eria
Mal
aysi
aP
akis
tan
Gul
f of
Ang
ola
Tuni
sia
Kaz
akhs
tan
Rom
ania
Can
ada
Iran
Iraq
Gha
naP
apua
New
Isra
elS
ierra
Tota
l num
ber o
f exp
lora
tion
disc
over
ies
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Bernstein analysis, IHS, Rigzone
Global Integrated Oils5
After A Drought In The Mid-Noughties Deepwater Finds Have Returned
Deepwater discoveries over 200m water depth have not correlated with the oil price
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
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2009
2010
Tota
l Dee
pwat
er D
isco
verie
s (M
boe)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
WTI
($/b
bl)
Deepwater Discoveries (Mboe) WTI ($/bbl)
Tupi Oil
Shtokman Gas & Condensate
Troll Gas & Condensate
Gorgon/Janz Gas
Shah-Deniz Gas
Tupi-Sul OilCarioca Oil
Jupiter Gas, Iara OilBem-Te-Vi Oil, Guara Oil
Piracuca Oil, Tiber Oil,
Shenandoah Oil
Source: Company reports, World Oil and Bernstein estimates
Global Integrated Oils6
Deepwater Discoveries are Generally Getting Deeper, and Smaller
Global Deepwater Discoveries over time
Source: Company reports, World Oil and Bernstein estimates
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1968
1971
1973
1976
1979
1982
1984
1987
1990
1993
1995
1998
2001
2004
2006
2009
2012
Dee
pwat
er d
isco
very
wat
er d
epth
(ft)
Brazil (Tupi, Iara, Guara)
Diameter is proportional to discovery size (Mboe)
Ultra Deepwater
Deepwater
Global Integrated Oils7
Discussion: Deepwater E&P in a Global Context
Who is finding what and where?
Hot exploration plays and company strategies
Impact of the GoM spill on the outlook for Deepwater Exploration
Global Integrated Oils8
The Majors’ Have Balanced Deepwater With Areas Of Lower Geological Risk
Presence of Majors in Hot Global Exploration Plays
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
U.S. Unconven-tional Gas
Initial Geological RiskHigh High High Modest High Modest Low Low Low Low
Technical ChallengeHigh Modest Low High High Low Low Modest Low Low
Socio-Economic BarriersLow Low Low Modest Low Modest High Low Low Low
IOC Presence: Negligible positions are marked "–" and exploration/appraisal activities are marked "x"BP – – x x x x – – x xCOP – – x x x – – x x xCVX O – x x x – – x x xENI x x x x x x – – x xMRO – – x – x – – x – xRDS x – – x x – – x x xTOT – – – x x x – – x xXOM x Trying x x x x – x x xHES x x x – x x – – x xPBR x – – – x x – – – –
Legend: – = Negligible positions. x = Exploration/appraisal activity. O = CVX has some exposure including Frade & Papa Terra
Region
KurdistanOffshore
Libya
European Unconven-tional Gas
Australian Gas
Brazil Pre-Salt
Ghana & Gulf of Guinea
GoM Lower Tertiary
Offshore Arctic
New Indonesian
Basins
Global Integrated Oils9
The Geology Is Becoming Better Understood..but Surprises Have Occurred
35%
22%
13%
7% 6%4% 4% 4%
3%1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
SubmarineFan
Channels
SubmarineFan Lobe
Turbidites Mud-richSlope
Slope Apron Pelagic SubLacustrine
Fan
SubmarineCanyon
SubmarineFan
SubmarineFan
ChannelLevee
Per
cent
age
of D
eepw
ater
Dis
cove
ries
by D
espo
sitio
nal T
ype
70% are submarine fans and turbidites
Source: CHC Reservoirs and Bernstein estimates
200 major deepwater discoveries ranked by type of depositional environment
Surprise 1:Stratigraphic traps
Surprise 2:Deepwater carbonate
reservoirs
Global Integrated Oils10
The Industry Thought It Knew Deepwater West Africa Until 2006
Historical Congo drainage basin deepwater hydrocarbon discoveries
Source: IHS, World Oil and Bernstein estimates
0
5
10
15
20
25
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
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1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Gro
ss D
eepw
ater
Dis
cove
red
Res
erve
s (B
n bo
e)
EG, Gabon, Congo, Angola (>200M Water Depth)
Post 2006 there have been much small discoveries in Angola and very limited exploration in Nigeria
Global Integrated Oils11
The Old School Deepwater Model Did Not Evolve From 2000-2005
Wildcat exploration 1965-2005 offshore Ghana (GH), Cote D'Ivoire (CI), Liberia (LR) and Sierra Leone (SL) which are all shallow wells
Source: IHS and Bernstein estimates Post 2005 industry deepwater focus
Global Integrated Oils12
However The Ghana Play Could Still Extend Further West
Exploration in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote D’Ivoire and Ghana____________________________________
Source: Company reports and Bernstein analysis
Recent exploration wells in Sierra Leone & Cote D’Ivoire have led some to write off the region to the West, and to suggest that Ghana is an isolated event.
We believe there is still significant upside in these countries. While Anadarko’s Venus well test from September was judged a failure with only 45ft of net pay, this did not target the core of the interval, and newer seismic has shown encouraging geology
SL-0
6/07
SL-07
Sierra Leone
CoteD’Ivoire
Liberia
LB-1
7LB
-16
LB-1
5
CI-102
CI-105 CI-103100km
West CapeThree Points
Deep Water Tano
Ghana
LB-1
0LB-1
1
LB-1
2
LB-1
3
LB-1
4
Tullow interests
Anadarko, Woodside, Repsol, Tullow
Anadarko
Anadarko, Woodside, Tullow
CI-100
SL-0
6/07
SL-07
Sierra Leone
CoteD’Ivoire
Liberia
LB-1
7LB
-16
LB-1
5
CI-102
CI-105 CI-103100km100km
West CapeThree Points
Deep Water Tano
Ghana
LB-1
0LB-1
1
LB-1
2
LB-1
3
LB-1
4
Tullow interests
Anadarko, Woodside, Repsol, Tullow
Anadarko
Anadarko, Woodside, Tullow
CI-100
Global Integrated Oils13
Surprise 2 – The Reservoirs Can Be Carbonates As Well
Offshore Brazil has the best creaming cure of any deepwater region, with a lot of life left in both the Campos and Santos Basins…as well as to the north
0
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2006
2007
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Gro
ss D
eepw
ater
Dis
cove
red
Res
erve
s (B
n bo
e)
Offshore Brazil (> 200m Water Depth)
Source: IHS, World Oil and Bernstein estimates
Mainly post-salt clastic reservoirs
Mainly pre-salt carbonate reservoirs
Global Integrated Oils14
Lat Am Deepwater Exploration Appears To Being Moving North
Source: IHS and Bernstein estimates
Wildcat exploration 1965-2005 offshore Guyana (GY), Suriname (SR) and French Guiana (GF)
Along with Brazil, will this be the new focus in the 2010-2015 period
Q4 2010 French Guiana well: Tullow/Shell/TOTAL
Global Integrated Oils15
Indonesia: Deepwater Licenses Have Led to Increased Exploration
Exploration in Indonesia __________________________
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
After Indonesia became a net oil importer in 2003, the government increased deepwater licensing and increased frontier exploration
Activity in 2010 is led by Marathon’s exploration in Sulawesi, around the Pasangkayu block and Bone Bay, and in the slightly longer term we would expect to see increased exploration in West Papua, especially from Hess
Kutei Basin
Pasa
ngka
yuBone Bay
Tangguh LNG
Natuna
West Papua
Java
Kalimantan
Sumatra
Natuna Sea
Sulawesi
Timor
Cepu
Gunting
Bontang LNGRokan
MFK Block
Siak
NE Madura III
E AmbalatBukat
West Papua I & III
Kuma
Ketapang
S. JambiBlock BCorridor
Wiriagar, Muturi, BerauKutei Basin
Pasa
ngka
yuBone Bay
Tangguh LNG
Natuna
West Papua
Java
Kalimantan
Sumatra
Natuna Sea
Sulawesi
Timor
Cepu
Gunting
Bontang LNGRokan
MFK Block
Siak
NE Madura III
E AmbalatBukat
West Papua I & III
Kuma
Ketapang
S. JambiBlock BCorridor
Wiriagar, Muturi, BerauKutei Basin
Pasa
ngka
yuBone Bay
Tangguh LNG
Natuna
West Papua
Java
Kalimantan
Sumatra
Natuna Sea
Sulawesi
Timor
Cepu
Gunting
Bontang LNGRokan
MFK Block
Siak
NE Madura III
E AmbalatBukat
West Papua I & III
Kuma
Ketapang
S. JambiBlock BCorridor
Wiriagar, Muturi, Berau
Global Integrated Oils16
Offshore Libya – If It Works Onshore…Some Success Offshore
Offshore Libya Acreage
Source: Libyan NOC and Bernstein analysis
The IOCs are heavily involved in offshore Libya – an area close to a proven system, and where political risks are greater than geological risks
Successful exploration to date has included Hess’ Block 54 and Repsol’s discovery in block NC202, and BP collected further Seismic data in 2009
HESS
BP
ENIXOM
XOM
Sirte Oil Co.
GazpromPBR
Woodside
WahaOil Co.
REP
Nippon
Onshore Sirte Basin
Gulf of Sirte
Libya
TOT
54
NC
202Arous Al Bahardiscovery
OildiscoveryHESS
BP
ENIXOM
XOM
Sirte Oil Co.
GazpromPBR
Woodside
WahaOil Co.
REP
Nippon
Onshore Sirte Basin
Gulf of Sirte
Libya
TOT
54
NC
202Arous Al Bahardiscovery
Oildiscovery
Global Integrated Oils17
Deepwater South China Sea – 2010/2011 Big Increase In Activity
Deepwater South China Sea
Source: Company Reports
Although the shallow water part of the South China Sea has been actively explored since the early 1980s, it is only over the past 5 years that deep water exploration has started to become interesting, with seismic indicating deep sea fan systems extending significant distances from the shelf
Although Husky has made a number of discoveries in Block 29/26, but this is currently the only block to be drilled, and represents just 2% of the total exploration acreage
If the discovery density of 29/26 was typical, the basin could hold reserves up to 30bn boe, or 10bn boe on a risked basis, although this is still highly speculative
Global Integrated Oils18
Lastly The GoM Was A Recent Deepwater Success Story..Until The Spill
Historical Mississippi drainage basin and Gulf of Mexico deepwater hydrocarbon discoveries
Source: IHS, World Oil and Bernstein estimates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2019
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1973
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2001
2003
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2007
2009
Gro
ss D
eepw
ater
Dis
cove
red
Res
erve
s (B
n bo
e) US Gulf of Mexico (>200M Water Depth)
A recent resurgence in GoM discoveries suggested a bright future…up to the spill
Prior to 2008, the last wave of deepwater discoveries in the GoM occurred between 1998-2002
Global Integrated Oils19
Discussion: Deepwater E&P in a Global Context
Who is finding what and where?
Hot exploration plays and company strategies
Impact of the GoM spill on the outlook for Deepwater Exploration
Global Integrated Oils20
Macondo Blowout And Spill Not The First...But Very Much The Largest
Source: MMS and Bernstein estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Num
ber o
f blo
wou
ts, f
ires
or e
xplo
sion
sFires & Explosions Blowouts
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Volu
me
of o
il sp
illed
>10 bbls 1-10 bbls <1 bbl
Number of blowoutsNumber of fires
Estimated daily flow from the Macondo well
Safety Performance in the US Deepwater GoM (1996-2008)
Blowouts and fires in the GoM do happen but we usually do not hear about them
Spills also occur but the current spill past annual averages in 3 days
Global Integrated Oils21
Future deepwater exploration in the US has suffered a set-back
KeyLack of local support or low resource potentialNew areas open to study and explorationCurrently open areas
Newly protected areas
Alaska
Postponed public meetings for offshore Virginia sale
US Offshore Strategy from March…..with April update and moratorium
Source: DOI and Bernstein estimates
Global Integrated Oils22
The Arctic – Melting Ice Opens A New Frontier…but An Oil Spill Closes It
Arctic Provinces
Source: Jakobsson, M., Macnab, R., Mayer, L., Anderson, R., Edwards, M., Hatzky, J., Schenke, H-W., and Johnson, P., 2008, "An improved bathymetric portrayal of the Arctic Ocean: Implications for ocean modeling and geological, geophysical and oceanographic analyses," v. 35, L07602, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2008GL033520. Also adapted by Bernstein.
In the past the extent of ice coverage has made it impossible to access exploration acreage in the Arctic, although recent years have seen longer “ice windows”
While Russia has not organised any licensing rounds, Canada and the US have held various lease sales in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, with the IOCs heavily involved
Chukchi and Beaufort drilling now is not very likely until after 2012…although Shell will keep trying for a permit in 2010
West Greenland drilling seems ok this year
Global Integrated Oils23
The Current GoM new drilling moratorium is important to the deepwater
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
450020
10E
2011
E
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
2019
E
2020
E
Oil
prod
uctio
n (K
bbl/d
)
Other
Brazil
US
Source: IEA, Wood Mackenzie, Company reports and Bernstein estimates
Forecast Oil Production From New Large Deepwater Fields (>1000m)
GoM developments are important to the deepwater…but not as important to the future production as you might think
Global Integrated Oils24
However, Should Deepwater Fears Spread It Will Impact Global Supply
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
2010
E
2011
E
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
2019
E
2020
E
Oil
prod
uctio
n (M
bbl/d
)
Other Supply Deepwater delayed Total Supply
1-year delay in projects from 2013 onward causes shortfall in supply
Source: IEA, Wood Mackenzie, Company reports and Bernstein estimates
Potential impact of Delays to Deepwater Projects
Global Integrated Oils25
Disclosure Appendix
Global Integrated Oils26
Valuation Methodology
Our target prices for the Global Integrated Oils are calculated by applying our estimates for 2011 cashflow per share (CFPS) to a forward price-to-cashflow (P/CF) multiple. This P/CF multiple is generated through the relationship, and historically strong correlation, between 12 month forward P/CF multiples and Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) within the Global Integrated Oils group. Our calculation utilizes this relationship and an estimated long term, through the cycle, ROACE to generate the target P/CF multiple. The price calculations for the Integrateds are summarized in exhibit below. A key assumption is that investors continue to reward companies with higher returns, as has been the case historically. We use $80 per barrel WTI and $9.00/mcf for US gas in 2010 and $102.6/bbl WTI and $8.50/mcf for US gas in 2011.
Source: Bloomberg and Bernstein Estimates
Ticker FXAdjusted P/CF
Multiple 2011 CFPS Target PriceClosing Price
(24/05/10) RatingBP (US) $ 4.2 13.16 56 41.86 OBP (UK) GBp 4.2 149.19 630 493.00 OCVX $ 4.6 19.39 88 73.44 OCOP $ 3.8 14.34 54 50.11 MENI (EUR) € 3.6 6.18 22 14.97 OENI (US) $ 3.6 16.86 60 36.52 OMRO $ 3.0 11.80 36 31.60 OTOT (EUR) € 4.5 9.52 43 37.54 MTOT (US) $ 4.5 12.97 59 45.13 MRDSA LN GBp 4.5 499 2268 1789 ORDSB LN GBp 4.5 499 2268 1714 ORDSA NA € 4.5 5.75 26 20.78 ORDSB NA € 4.5 5.75 26 19.94 ORDS/A US $ 4.5 15.67 71 51.09 ORDS/B US $ 4.5 15.67 71 49.27 OXOM $ 5.7 12.28 70 60.19 MPBR ADR (PREF) $ 5.9 7.36 39 29.11 MPETR4 SHR (PREF) $R 5.9 6.92 36 27.15 MPBR ADR (ORD) $ 5.9 7.36 45 33.14 MPETR3 SHR (ORD) $R 5.9 6.92 42 30.90 MHES $ 4.3 17.16 73 51.28 O
Target Price = P/CF Multiple x 2011 CFPS
Global Integrated Oils27
Risks
Oil prices forecasts are heavily dependent on GDP expectations. As such should GDP be stronger than expected or weaker than expected it could materially change the outlook for oil demand and prices and for the cash flow generation of the peer group. In addition supply disruptions caused by weather or terrorism remain a material risk and would place further upward pressure on pricing. The greatest risk to our target prices for the Majors is a significant decline in crude oil prices, as the Majors commonly trade in line with commodity prices. Additionally, downward revisions to production volume targets could adversely impact share prices.
Global Integrated Oils28
Disclosure AppendixSRO REQUIRED DISCLOSURES
•References to "Bernstein" relate to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, and Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, collectively.•Bernstein analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration, productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are compensated based on performance in, or contributions to, generating investment banking revenues.•Bernstein rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 6-12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the MSCI Pan Europe Index for stocks listed on the European exchanges (except for Russian companies), versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for Russian companies and stocks listed on emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacific region, and versus the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges - unless otherwise specified. We have three categories of ratings:Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp in the year ahead.Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.Not Rated: The stock Rating, Target Price and estimates (if any) have been suspended temporarily.•As of 05/20/2010, Bernstein's ratings were distributed as follows: Outperform - 45.8% (1.0% banking clients) ; Market-Perform - 47.4% (1.0% banking clients); Underperform - 6.8% (0.0% banking clients); Not Rated - 0.0% (0.0% banking clients). The numbers in parentheses represent the percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein provided investment banking services within the last twelve (12) months.•A member of Neil McMahon's household maintains a long position in BP PLC (BP). •Accounts over which Bernstein and/or their affiliates exercise investment discretion own more than 1% of the outstanding common stock of the following companies BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, COP / ConocoPhillips, CVX / ChevronTexaco Corp, MRO / Marathon Oil Corp, RDS/A / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDS/B / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC.•The following companies are or during the past twelve (12) months were clients of Bernstein, which provided non-investment banking-securities related services and received compensation for such services BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, CVX / ChevronTexaco Corp, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, MRO / Marathon Oil Corp, TOT / Total SA, XOM / Exxon Mobil Corp.•An affiliate of Bernstein received compensation for non-investment banking-securities related services from the following companies COP / ConocoPhillips, CVX / ChevronTexaco Corp, XOM / Exxon Mobil Corp.•In the next three (3) months, Bernstein or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, COP / ConocoPhillips, CVX / ChevronTexaco Corp, E / ENI SpA, ENI.IM / ENI SpA, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, HES / Hess Corp, MRO / Marathon Oil Corp, PBR / Petroleo Brasileiro SA, PBR/A / PetroleoBrasileiro SA, PETR3.BZ / Petroleo Brasileiro SA, PETR4.BZ / Petroleo Brasileiro SA, RDS/A / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDS/B / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, TOT / Total SA, XOM / Exxon Mobil Corp.•This research publication covers six or more companies. For price chart disclosures, please visit www.bernsteinresearch.com, you can also write to either: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC, Director of Compliance, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10105 or Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, Director of Compliance, Devonshire House, One Mayfair Place, London W1J 8SB, United Kingdom; or Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, Director of Compliance, Suite 3401, 34th Floor, One IFC, One Harbour View Street, Central, Hong Kong.
Global Integrated Oils29
12-Month Rating History as of 05/24/2010
Ticker Rating Changes BP O (RC) 05/10/10 M (RC) 03/03/09 BP/.LN O (RC) 05/10/10 M (RC) 03/03/09 COP M (RC) 02/16/10 O (RC) 06/23/09 M (RC) 09/05/07 CVX O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 05/23/07 E O (RC) 11/21/08 ENI.IM O (RC) 11/21/08 FP.FP M (RC) 02/16/10 O (IC) 05/30/03 HES O (RC) 02/16/10 M (IC) 10/15/09 MRO O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 05/13/09 PBR M (RC) 04/12/10 O (IC) 10/15/09 PBR/A M (RC) 04/12/10 O (IC) 10/15/09 PETR3.BZ M (RC) 04/12/10 O (IC) 10/15/09 PETR4.BZ M (RC) 04/12/10 O (IC) 10/15/09 RDS/A O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 03/16/09 RDS/B O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 03/16/09 RDSA.LN O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 03/16/09 RDSA.NA O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 03/16/09 RDSB.LN O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 03/16/09 RDSB.NA O (RC) 02/16/10 M (RC) 03/16/09 TOT M (RC) 02/16/10 O (IC) 05/30/03 XOM M (RC) 02/19/09 Rating Guide: O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N - Not Rated Rating Actions: IC - Initiated Coverage, DC - Dropped Coverage, RC - Rating Change
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