Deepak BhatnagarHead

Center for International Trade in Technology (CITT)

Indian Institute of Foreign Trade

New Delhi, Indiawww.iift.edu

TECHNOLOGY PLANNING IN INDIA

- ‘vision’ for a ‘developed’ nation by 2020

Introduction

The investment in the field of Scientific Research & Development in the country is less than 1% of GDP.

Government is contemplating to increase investment on R&D in the public and private sector to 2% of GDP by the end of 12th Five Year Plan, through various measures which include: 

Higher allocation to scientific research,Setting up of new institutions for science education and research,Creation of centres of excellence and facilities in emerging and frontline areas in academic and national institutes,Strengthening infrastructure for R&D in universities,Encouraging public-private R&D partnerships, Grants for industrial R&D projects, andIncome tax relief on R&D expenditure, weighted tax deduction for sponsored research, custom duty exemption on goods imported for use in Government funded R&D projects, tax holiday and national awards for outstanding R&D.

1st - 10th Plan: Outlays/Expenditures of Central Scientific Ministries/Departments/Agencies

(Rs. in crores)

Sl. No.

S&T Deptt./Agencies

1st Plan (1951-56)

2nd Plan (1956-61)

3rd Plan (1961-66)

4th Plan (1969-74)

5th Plan (1974-79)

6th Plan (1980-85)

7th Plan (1985-90)

8th Plan (1992-97)

9th Plan (1997-02)

10th Plan (2002-07)

1Deptt. of Atomic Energy (R&D Sector) 27.00 33.10 67.48 167.13 248.98 315.00 600.00 1500.00 3501.35

2Ministry of Earth Sciences/ Deptt. of Ocean Development

110.00 130.00 510.62 1125.00

3Deptt. of Science & Technology 58.96 134.87 301.78 640.00 1497.35 3400.00

4 Deptt. of Biotechnology 132.00 265.00 675.00 1450.00

5Deptt. of Scientific & Industrial Research inclu. CSIR

4.61 14.68 33.04 50.00 81.77 170.00 370.00 655.00 1327.48 2575.00

6 Deptt. of Space 128.27 245.80 793.96 1804.00 6511.72 13250.00

Grand Total 4.61 41.68 66.14 117.48 436.13 799.65 2022.74 4094.00 12022.17 25301.35

TIFAC- Broad Objectives

Undertake TA/TF studies and TMS reports

Technology watch on global trend

Promotion of key technologies.

… technology development towards commercialisation

MAKING THE FUTURE WORK FOR YOU !

Are you confident about…• Future trends: how they may affect you?

• Where the new opportunities will be ?

• How S&T can help you seize these opportunities?

• What you should be doing NOW?

For every person and organization priorities may differ. But one thing is certain:

We live in a world of change.

The need to anticipate and prepare for the future is crucial.

T I F A C

NEED FOR A TECHNOLOGY VISION...

‘Blessed are those, who have a dream or vision, for, those who have not, are dead while living !’

Need to Manage:- Technological knowledge to sustain competitiveness in an uncertain business context - rapid technological change, uncertainty and complexity- Issue become manifold because of globalization of technologyTechnology Management: Broad concepts• Technology scanning• Technology foresight• Technology innovation• Technology evolution and• Technology diffusion

Integration of Technology strategy with Business strategy

T I F A C

What is Technology Assessment ?

Technology : “ways and means by which humans produce purposeful material artifacts and effects”

Technology Assessment (TA) : Concept brought out by Emilio.Q.Daddario(1967)

Definitions of TA :

- a form of policy research which provides a balanced appraisal to the policy maker

- a system to ask right questions and obtain correct and timely answers

- in the context of technology management “as a systematic attempt to foresee the consequences of introducing a particular technology in all spheres it is likely to interact with”

T I F A C

• Science- fiction : Futuristic Thinkers

(H.G. Wells, Jules Verne…)

• Intuition : Visionaries

(Bertrand Russel, Arthur C.Clarke…)

• A Systematic, Quantitative Approach

: Institutionalized

(MITI, OTA, FAST, TIFAC…)

Technology Forecasting: Genesis

“Practical men are influenced by academic scribblers”

- Keynes

Three major sources of technology

- Philosophers or men of speculation

- Producers

- and Users

- Adam Smith

of machinery

Forecasts: built on 3 information bases

• What people say:

- Expert opinion, visionaries…

• What people do:

- Prototype development, demonstration/pilot plant, new products for market test …

• What people have done :

- Past records, trend extrapolations

TF : Formal definitions

• J.P.Martino : “TF is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques”

• M.J.Cetron : “The prediction with a stated level of confidence of the anticipated occurrence of a technological achievement within a given time frame with specified level of support”

Generally expressed as Quantitative probability

How Forecasting Helps?• Reduced risk and better rates of return:

- better investment decisions - faster conversion of knowledge into product• New opportunities: - breaking free from traditional sectors to diversification

- greater awareness of using technology for business success• More Effective Management:

- flexible organizations; cross-functional teams- encouraging environment of creativity- developing appropriate skills

• Strategic R&D Planning:- identifying new markets and opportunities - choosing how to respond rather than forced into action by

competitors.- new applications for existing research and new areas for

research• Government:

- dovetail with the National Planning process and policy interventions

- involve stake holders in decision making process

T I F A C

Forecasting Technological Change• Prediction of technological trajectories: problematic issue -technological change induced by both incremental and breakthrough innovations (disruptive innovation e.g. Digital camera)• Traditional forecasting techniques like extrapolation - failure based on the assumption of a logical link between the past and future• ‘S-curve’ is a widely accepted technology life cycle model - to understand the evolution of technology development.- Tells us about ‘WHAT’ things are, but not ‘WHY’ things are ?• Existing methods vulnerable in coping with the real turbulent world• Recent studies based on:– Chaos theory : Artificial neural networks (Clement Wang et al NUS, Singapore) - Insights from theories of Evolution

(Bowonder and Miyake)

T I F A C

Technology Vision 2020• Ambitious exercise (completed in 1996) under the leadership

of Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam (the-then Chairman, TIFAC) to identify national priorities for S&T– Involved 500 user agencies and 5000 experts

– 17 sectors covered

Objectives• Provide national initiatives in S&T to realise the vision of a

developed India by 2020• Provide strong basis for policy framework and investment for

R&D in Govt. & Private sectors, and• Contribute to the development of integrated S&T policy both

at National & State levels.

T I F A C

TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020in 17 SECTORS

• Food & Agriculture• Agro-Food Processing• Chemical Industries• Engineering Industries• Strategic Industries• Electronics & Telecommunications• Civil Aviation• Electric Power

TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020in 17 SECTORS

• Waterways• Road Transportation • Materials & Processing• Health Care• Life Sciences & Biotechnology• Services• Advanced Sensors and• Driving Forces - Impedances

TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020

FOR

• Well being of all Indians

• Global Competitiveness

• Technology Development as Business Investment

• Meeting the Changing Demand Scenario

• Long-Term Technology Forecast to ensure India’s

Economic Growth and Leadership by 2020

TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020Steps followed…

• Task Forces constituted for each major sector • Panels constituted for each sub-sector with area

specialists as members• Status reports on each sub-sector to bring out

current technology status & market estimates• Opinion survey – Brainstorming, Delphi, Nominal

Group Technique for future vision• Analysis of responses & scenario papers prepared

for future technology directions• Workshop & FINAL Reports

Technology Vision 2020 Methodology

Economic/social needs Consumer

Trends

Derive broad areas of Advantage

Compare world indices

e.g. yields, productivity

Global Technology

Trends

Driving forces

Impedances

Some standard questions

Guidelines

Use of technology status reports

Sources: TIFAC,CII,OTHERS

•Advanced Sensors

•Agriculture

•Agro-food processing

•Chemical Process industries

•Civil Aviation

•Electric Power

•Electronics & Communications

•Engineering Industries

•Health Care

•Life Sciences & Biotechnology

•Materials and Processing

•Road Transportation

•Services

•Strategic Industries

•Telecommunications

•Waterways

For each Panel

Some Select Interviews

International Experts analysis + Discussion+Report

Workshop Recommendations

Presentation of findings of Task Force to TIFAC Governing Council

Delphi RoundsScenario

T I F A C

DB©2007

TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020

• Areas where India can be globally competitive

• Spin-offs from the technologies developed in other sectors

• Technologies which may emerge in renewed form (Bio-fertilizers, Neem based pesticides, etc.)

Some typical issues addressed :

TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020

• IPR related issues

• Management of Technological change

• How to make S&T user-friendly?

• To obtain a balanced mix of commercial gains & social benefits

Some typical issues addressed (contd.)

DB©2007

COVERAGE Metals, Alloys and Surface Engineering

Composite Materials

Glass and Ceramics

Photonic Materials

Polymeric Materials

Nuclear Materials

Super conducting Materials

Bio materials and Devices

Building Materials

Technology Vision 2020 (Report on Materials and

Processing)

TIFAC

Technology Vision 2020(Report on Advanced Sensors)

COVERAGE:• Strategic Importance of Sensors

• Mechanical Sensors

• Chemical Sensors

• Magnetic Sensors

• Biosensors

• Optic Sensors

• Emerging Technological Scenario

• Demand for Advanced Sensors

• Capabilities in the Area of Advanced Sensors

• Suggested Action Plan

Technology Vision 2020(Report on Electronics & Communication)

COVERAGE:

• Components

• Microelectronics

• Photonics / Optoelectronics

• Consumer Electronics

• Information Technology

• Communication

• Automation & Robotics

• Applications in Social & Rural Sector

• Interdisciplinary Emerging Areas

REALISING THE VISION - fructifying through the ‘Mission’ approach!

* Vision 2020 documents released by Prime Minister on 2nd August, 1996 - dissemination by TIFAC at various fora (States, Industry, International)* Planning Commission asked the concerned Ministries to integrate findings with Ninth 5-year Plan of their own sector

* Action Teams constituted to convert Vision into Missions - generation of specific project proposals - realisation mechanisms, thru special linkages* Financing mechanisms of Govt. of India accorded priority to projects identified from Vision recommendations

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020

MISSION PROGRAMMES

TIFAC

© TIFAC-2007, Visit us at http://www.tifac.org.in & http://www.indianpatents.org & http://www.missionreach.org.in

Agriculture & Agro Food Processing

Upgradation of Road Construction & Transportation Equipment

Upgradation of Textile Machinery

Health Care Services

Upgradation of Science & Engineering Colleges

(Mission REACH)

Targetted Programmes in other Important Areas

VISION ON FOOD & AGRICULTURE

* Food Security of required Nutritional quality - most important need for the people of India

* Projection of 360 MT Cereals by 2020 (present 250.42 MT in 2011)

* Panel Covered :

- resources

- technology

- crop protection & production

- rain fed agriculture

- role of biotechnology

- global impact, public-private sector relationships etc.

FOOD & AGRICULTURE : REALISING THE VISION !

Pilot project: one state of India (Bihar)

Mechanism : Motivate farmers thru’ demonstrations, training & services, identifying proper rice varieties, generation of test seeds, balanced fertilizers at nursery stage etc.

Success achieved : over 100% increase in productivity : yield of 5700 to 6100kg/ha (against present level of 2000-2400Kg/ha) in Pusa 834 paddy harvested in early October’99.

Future : try ‘multiplier-effect’ in other states depending on their response.

AGRO FOOD PROCESSING

* Four areas covered : Milk, Cereals, Fruits and vegetables

MILK :

India : largest milk producer in the world (121.8 MT/annum in 2011; anticipated achievement for year 2012 is 127.3 MT/annum) but low in productivity

Vision to increase milk yield from 500 to 3000 litres/annum/per cattle

thru’• Technologies for use of farm bulk coolers, • non-conventional energy sources for primary processing• imported cattle breeding, Food & Nutrition, Cattle healthcare etc.

“Dairy Sector can bring about economic and social transformation

in rural India”

Agriculture and agro-food processing

• Improve productivity, yield and quality through better practices, equipment and inputs

• Doubling of productivity for rice & wheat in Bihar, Eastern UP

• Milk yield improvement by 20% and bacterial count below EU standards in demonstration projects in Punjab, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh

Andhra Pradesh Dairy Development Cooperative Federation LtdMobile Milking Machine: First time in India at community level

Vegetable cultivation in poly house at Debal, Uttaranchal

INFRASTRUCTURE

* Strong link between availability of adequate infrastructure and Economic

growth (e.g. Food Processing : need for roads, power etc.

* Areas covered : Electric Power, Roads & Waterways

* Technology development efforts needed in :

* Electric Power - clean coal technologies

- efficient coal beneficiation

- direct ignition of pulverized coal

- pressurised fluidized bed combustion (PFBC)

- Fly Ash Utilization techniques

- Integrated Gasification combined cycle (IGCC)

- High Voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission

INFRASTRUCTURE

* Roads - Provision of structurally and functionally adequate roads

(present and anticipated needs)

- Road Design, Construction, Maintenance & Materials

- Appropriate technologies for rural roads & village connectivity

- Road building machinery

- National Highways and Expressways

* Waterways - Presently, insignificant but lot of potential

- need to modernize existing waterways

- Development of “Smart Waterways”

(sufficient depth & width, navigation round the year)

Mission REACH Relevance and Excellence in ACHieving new

heights in Technical Education

Launched on 4th October, 2000 by Dr.APJ.Abdul Kalam

• 32 TIFAC COREs (Centres of Relevance and Excellence)in emerging areas, across the country• 2 centres for Technology Enhanced Learning (e-learning and e-outreach)

• Triangular linkage between Academic Institute, Industry and Government(TIFAC/DST)• Unique feature: Industry participation is mandatory (Over 100 industry partners)

www.missionreach.org.in

Other Vision 2020 programmes

Renishaw Cyclone for rapid prototyping, PSG Tech, Coimbatore

Weft Set (M/s. Semitroniks, Ahmedabad)

Multi purpose Loader, Escorts, Faridabad

Mobile Hospital, Uttaranchal 6.6 MW power plant based on processed MSW, Hyderabad

Agronet Tunnel Facility for tissue culture, TIET, Patiala

Science & TechnologyProjections for Twelfth Five Year Plan (20012-17)

“ India needs more “frugal, distributed, affordable innovation” Below are some strategy challenges that need to be addressed for

strengthening the eco-system and the proposed approaches for the way forward

– Enrichment of Knowledge Base

– Incentivizing R&D in Public and Private Sector

– Improving Governance in S&T Institutions

– University, industry, and Scientific Establishment Collaboration

– Promoting Collaborations through Clusters

– Supportive Financial System

– Platform for Best Practices and Innovations:

– Improving the Flow of Technology

– Intellectual Property Rights

– Use of GIS for Development

A Global Picture of Technologies

- in the 21st century

Incremental advance or radical change?

T I F A C

Profound effect on how we live, work and spend our leisure time• Technologies would revolutionalise the worlds of medicine, agriculture, travel, retailing…

• Used wisely- huge benefit to mankind• Used wrongly -lost opportunities and unnecessary risks;

The challenge, is immense:

What would be the cost of failure to embrace dynamic change?

What kind of ethical dilemmas will arise, say from breakthroughs in genetic engg.?

Will new technology create new social divisions?

How will society adapt to harness the technological potential?

How can countries cooperate to maximize benefits of spillovers?

Pervasive technologies…. …prospect of remarkable progress T I F

A C

Six technology areas which may be fundamental shapers of human enterprise:•genetics •energy•materials•brain•information •sixth area (not itself a technology, but will influence changes) will be environmentalism

      * Source: OECD study by Coates & Jarratt, Inc

Technical foundation for the continuing wave of innovation:

- developments in the field of Digital and Genetic information.

These two building blocks- one of calculation and the other of nature:

- likely to unlock vast treasures for both tool builders and users.

The great ‘ Enablers’*…T I F A C

• Research has established that heritable characteristics

of all living things, transmitted by a specific class of chemicals called DNA- responsible for all our characteristics:• 20th century: contraceptive technology separated procreation from recreation !• 21st century: genetic engg will go further and separate

fertilization from the propagation of undesirable characteristics: research will be directed towards preventing, correcting and even designing new drugs to mitigate the effects of adverse genes•genetic basis of individual diseases-leads to Pharmacogenomics

•Transgenic plants ( taking DNA from distinctly different species and combining them into new products)

-increased productivity

-modification of plants for nutritional improvement.

Genetics

T I F A C

• Greater dependency on multiple sources

technologies with a goal of massive energy conservation

- more efficient flow of energy

- Superconducting materials : Big Q is when ?

•Future Focus: NON-CARBON!!

Two primary sources of non carbon fuels:

Nuclear power ( shift from Uranium to Thorium, Plutonium -FBR )

Solar Energy(photo voltaics-generation & passive solar for hot water)

Wind Energy

One great uncertainty: whether greenhouse warming due to technological activities will prove to be both real and significant;

-if both: imperative to re-engineer the global energy infrastructure :

new means of petroleum extraction, natural gas , gas hydrates

Fuel cells , hydrogen energy expected to come in commercial domain beyond 2040.

Energy Technology

T I F A C

•Designing new materials from scratch with any set of

characteristics we choose

• Societal imperatives – greater durability., longer lifetime,Greater use of Recycling, Reclamation and Remanufacturing (3Rs)

•Environmental pressures, limited resources and capabilities of engineering will make the three Rs universal.

•Movement towards miniaturization and modularity:

- Micro devices will function as sensors, actuators and functioning applications in machines and in living beings as measuring instruments and controls.

•Beyond micro-machines lies the more speculative nano-world

(micro-manipulation of atoms and molecules!-Alvin Toffler )

•Goal of NT: perhaps duplicate what nature does, with technology :

•Bio- mimetrics-development of materials in imitation of or analogous to natural products, is another emerging avenue.

Materials technology

T I F A C

Futuristic Materials

Energetically stable carbon nano-tube T-junctions

T I F A C

Multi layer materials have extensive technological potential -used in applications like high performance coatings, Integrated circuit interconnects,X-ray optics

Around 20 labs in India are involved in R&D work in Nano technology .

Initiatives by TIFAC:

•Study on ‘Status of Nano technology in India and Business opportunities in Nano materials’

• Study on ‘Synthesis routes for Nano materials’

Diamond Memory and More Nano machines

Diamond Memory: Imagine a plane the size of your little fingernail, too thin to see with a light

microscope that holds the information of a Million, 1- Gigabyte Hard Drives

T I F A C

Wish list- Scientific crystal gazing T I F

A C

• Nano technology- Extraordinary from the ordinary

• Optic fibre - Web housing showcase

• Smart Materials and structures- Lifeless metals ? Forget it

• Hybrid Vehicles -More range at half the pollution

• Fuel cells -the ultimate energy resource

• Hydrogen Technology– Elemental power

• Genomics – driving cures, changing attitudes

• Biochips- this implant can save your life

• Agri sensors – a field of dreams

• Dairy Technology- Potential Inc.

• Biodegradable plastics- ‘politically correct’ way to a better life

1st - 10th Plan: Outlays/Expenditures of Central Scientific Ministries/Departments/Agencies

(Rs. in crores)

Sl. No.

S&T Deptt./Agencies

1st Plan (1951-56)

2nd Plan (1956-61)

3rd Plan (1961-66)

4th Plan (1969-74)

5th Plan (1974-79)

6th Plan (1980-85)

7th Plan (1985-90)

8th Plan (1992-97)

9th Plan (1997-02)

10th Plan (2002-07)

1Deptt. of Atomic Energy (R&D Sector) 27.00 33.10 67.48 167.13 248.98 315.00 600.00 1500.00 3501.35

2Ministry of Earth Sciences/ Deptt. of Ocean Development

110.00 130.00 510.62 1125.00

3Deptt. of Science & Technology 58.96 134.87 301.78 640.00 1497.35 3400.00

4 Deptt. of Biotechnology 132.00 265.00 675.00 1450.00

5Deptt. of Scientific & Industrial Research inclu. CSIR

4.61 14.68 33.04 50.00 81.77 170.00 370.00 655.00 1327.48 2575.00

6 Deptt. of Space 128.27 245.80 793.96 1804.00 6511.72 13250.00

Grand Total 4.61 41.68 66.14 117.48 436.13 799.65 2022.74 4094.00 12022.17 25301.35