Declining patterns of Pacific Northwest steelhead trout spawner abundance and marine ... ·...
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Declining patterns of Pacific Northwest steelhead trout spawner abundance
and marine survivalNeala Kendall, Gary Marston, and Matt Klungle
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Presented by: Erik Neatherlin, WDFW
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Puget Sound
Strait of Georgia
Decline in Salish Sea Marine SurvivalDecline in Salish Sea Marine Survival
VS
Washington / B.C. Coast
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Moore et. al. NOAA, 2013, unpublished data
~80% mortality in Puget Sound within 2‐3 weeks
Mortality of wild acoustic tagged populations: 2006‐ 2009
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Puget Sound Steelhead Abundance and Marine Survival
• Are Puget Sound abundance & marine survival trends different than those in other regions?
• How has survival changed over time?
• What environmental and fish characteristics are most related to marine survival trends?
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• Are Puget Sound abundance & marine survival trends different than those in other regions?
• How has survival changed over time?
• What environmental and fish characteristics are most related to marine survival trends?
Puget Sound Steelhead Abundance and Marine Survival
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Constraints/challenges
• Steelhead smolts are strong swimmers so harder to trap
• Adults return when waters are high (spring spawners) so more difficult to monitor spawning
• Steelhead are not coded wire tagged (CWT)
Less data over shorter time periods available for wild populations
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Steelhead spawner abundance data
Photo: Morgan Bond
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Abundances changes 1980s vs. 2000s
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Steelhead marine survival trends
Photos by Morgan Bond
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Marine survival correlation by distance
• For pink, chum, sockeye, Chinook, and coho salmon: – Mostly positive correlations across North Pacific Ocean—demonstrating general regional coherence
– Closer populations are more tightly correlated—demonstrating local coherence
Pyper et al. 2001 CJFAS—pink salmon
What about for steelhead??
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Steelhead positive marine survival correlation by distance
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Steelhead marine survival trends
Photos by Morgan Bond
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Hatchery & wild marine survival: smolt‐to‐adult return rates (SAR) Percent of smolts leaving freshwater that
survival to return as adults
Photo: Morgan Bond
Smolt survival = # spawners/hatchery returns + # catch# smolts
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48 steelhead stocks/pops:• Puget Sound:
10 hatchery stocks, 2 wild populations
• Strait of Juan de Fuca: 1 hatchery stocks, 5 wild populations
• Coast: 11 hatchery stocks, 2 wild populations
• Lower Columbia: 12 hatchery stocks, 4 wild populations
• Johnstone Strait: 1 wild population
Map by Dale Gombert, WDFW
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Determining Steelhead Groupings
Multivariate Auto‐Regressive State‐Space (MARSS)
• Fit models to time‐series data using maximum likelihood, includes both process and observationerror
• Does not require all data series to cover the same time period
• Provides statistical support for various population/stock groupings best‐supported models determined by AICc
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Regional groupings and steelhead marine
survival trends Mar
ine
surv
ival
Mar
ine
surv
ival
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Steelhead marine
survival time series—
breakpoints
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Environmental indicators• Ocean: climate forcing and large‐scale factors
• Region specific: nearshore and Strait of Juan de Fuca
• Local/basin– more immediate marine entryOcean Region specific Local/basin
LOWER COL
WA COAST
PUGET SOUND
NPGOSOIPDONOI
Sea surface temp (coastal shelf)Coastal upwell index (45N) +Spring transitionCopepod community indexWinter ichthyoplanktonChlorophyll a level
Race Rocks tempRace Rocks salinityNeah Bay sea levelPacific coast sea surface temp ‐Sea surface salinity (SJDF)Coastal upwelling index (48N) +
River flow
River flowTemperature, salinityDissolved oxygenChlorophyll a levelsDensity, pHLight transmissivityAdult herring abund. +Hatchery coho abundance –Seal abundancce + and marine bird abundance of other marine fishesKendall et al. (WDFW)
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Steelhead marine survival summary• Puget Sound steelhead marine survival has declined over time,
especially low since early 1990s
• Puget Sound, Strait of Juan de Fuca, coast, and lower Columbia River steelhead have exhibited different marine survival trends
• Marine survival correlation by distance results support hypothesis that much of the marine mortality occurs during early marine life. Environmental conditions influencing marine survival have unique smaller‐scale characteristics.
• Breakpoint analysis suggested that we can focus on specific time periods of decline and correlate with environmental conditions and trends
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Next steps
• Further summarize environmental indicator data to relate to steelhead marine survival trends
• Carry out the modeling work to relate indicators to marine survival trends
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Acknowledgements
• Many WDFW, tribal, and other biologists who have provided wild and hatchery smolt and adult data to estimate SARs
• Mark Scheuerell, Thomas Buehrens, Joe Anderson, Mara Zimmerman, and others for helpful conversations and insights
• Puget Sound steelhead early marine survival working group, including Michael Schmidt (Long Live the Kings)
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Thank you