Decisions, Policies and Adaptation to Climate Change

Walter E. Baethgen 2013

Decisions, Policies and Adaptation

to Climate Change

Walter E. BaethgenHead, Regional and Sectorial Research Program

Leader, Latin America and Caribbean


Mitigation is the Key:Energy sources, Deforestation/Afforestation, Transportation,Carbon Sequestration (including Land Use Changes),Reduction of Methane, N2O from Agriculture…

But:Inertia of current and past emissions: Effects on Climate in the next 40-50 years

Need to Adapt

Climate Change


Planning, Decision Making, Policy Making

Adaptation to What?What Can We Expect?

Future Climate Scenarios


Adapt to What?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)

Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land


Great advances in science and inClimate Models:

Spatial Resolution of Climate Models (grid size) is much betterE.g., IPCC Assessment Reports

10

1

30

30

Vertical layers

FAR AR4


Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed ClimateExample: SE South America SONDJF

IPCC Model Range and Mean

Ano

mal

ies

(mm

/mon

th)


Observed

IPCC Model Range and Mean

Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed ClimateExample: SE South America SONDJF

Ano

mal

ies

(mm

/mon

th)


Adapt to What?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)

Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land

1. Great advances in science,but still lots to understand:Limitations of the Models

2. Key Input:GHG Emissions

Assumptions:(e.g., in 2080-2100)

Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates?Population?

Uncertainties(IPCC Scenarios)


300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO2 p

pm

A1B

A1FA2

B1B2

CO2 atmospheric concentration for

different development options

Source: IPCC, 2001

Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values (similar assumptions)

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/090.htm%23fig41


Expected Global TemperatureFor Different Socioeconomic Scenarios

(Reference: 1986 – 2005)

Source: IPCC, 2013 (Draft) Uncertainty

Walter E. Baethgen 2013 IPCC, 2007

Precipitation Projections for 2090-2099

For Rainfall uncertainties are much larger

Precipitation in DJF

Walter E. Baethgen 2013 Giannini et al., 2007

At Regional level Uncertainties are larger

This is for large “Windows”At Local level Uncertainties are much larger

East Africa

Individual Model Runs and Averages


However: Published articles with Crop YieldProjections for 2020, 2050, 2080

Uncertainty?

2020

2050

2080

Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are UncertainIPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment

PROBLEM:This is easily understoodCan be “erroneously” believed

Percent change in Crop Yieldsfor one climate change scenario


Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers:

Decision Makers (including Policy Makers): Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems

Scientific Community: Scenarios for 2080, 2100Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE

CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is large

Result:

CC is often not in the policy agendas, planning

Can Adaptation be incorporated into development?


A Complementary Approach to “Traditional” Climate Change: Climate Risk Management

Work in “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years)Existing User Demand: Infrastructure, Water Reservoirs,Glaciers in the Andes, Long-term business plans, Development Programs

Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be due to increased Climate Variability (droughts, floods)

Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already)as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE

Learning to adapt to current climate variability will lead to less Vulnerable societies better prepared to confront future Climate

Informing policy, decisions: Understand and try to reduce UNCERTAINTIES


One Example: Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Probability of Next Season being

“NORMAL”

33%

33%

33%

A

N

B

10%

30%

60%

Understand / Reduce Uncertainties: Providing Relevant Information of the FUTURE

WhiteAreasin Map


Pick 15 years randomly

Mean Monthly Rainfall in Mato Grosso (1930 – 2000)

Understand / Quantify / Reduce Uncertainties: Providing Relevant Information of the FUTURE

Soybeans“Safrinha” (2nd Crop)


Mato Grosso: Monthly Precipitation (15 Randomly Selected Years)

“Safrinha”??


None of the years behaves like the long term mean

Probability of a year being “Average” = ZERO

Can we do better?

• Seasonal Climate Forecasts• Understand Historical Variability / associated risks

Still, Planning/Decisions are often based on “AVERAGE” year


Current Paradigm: “Noah’s Ark”

Rafael Terra, IMFIA, Uruguay

“Perfect” Information about the Future: a Climatic Cataclism is coming

Actionable Information: Build infrastructure and save Biodiversity

But: We do not have (will not have) Perfect Information of the Future Climate

Adaptation to Climate Change: We need a shift in Paradigm:


Approx 1,000m from epicenterin Hiroshima

Ginkgo biloba(2,000,000 year old tree species)

Rafael Terra, IMFIA, Uruguay

2 million years of Evolution

Adapted to a wide range of conditions

Unexpected extreme event (A-bomb)

Somehow 6 Ginkgos Survived

New Paradigm: Adapt with “flexibility”

• We will not have “perfect” information• Adapt to a Range of plausible conditions• Identify Interventions likely to succeed• Start by Adapting to today’s conditions

Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba


International Research Institute

LocalUniversity

AgriculturalResearchInstitute

ExtensionService,Adviser,

NGO

Farmer

KnowledgeGeneration

Knowledge“Translation”,

“Tailoring”Boundary

Organizations

KnowledgeApplication• Operation• Policy

New ResearchQuestions

New KnowledgeDemands

Here are the main Challenges:Need a “new type” of Scientist?

(Translator, Integrator)

When the Links / Chains are not present we try to create them(The solution is not to “skip links”, but to create/strengthen the links)

Take Advantage, Understand constraints, etc of Existing Information Networks: “Simplified” Example in Agriculture

Science and Society: Information Chains, Networks

Ministry,Agribusiness,

Insurance

Conceptual Framework (1): Advances in Science not proportional to their Applications


Science and Society: Information Networks(Very) Simplified Example in Agriculture

International Research

ClimateLocal

UniversityAgriculturalResearchInstitute

AdvisersFarmers

Farmer

Ministry

RegionalResearch Institute

International Research Agriculture

LocalUniversity

LocalUniversity

Rural SocialResearchInstitute

ClimateResearchInstitute

ExtensionService,

NGO

AdvisersMinistry

Insurance

Agribusiness

MeteorologicalService

FinancialServices

• Understand the Network (links, processes)• Strengthen links, communication


Gap between Science and Applications / Society2. Science traditional reductionist approach: Create ‘islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance’

Need Tools/Approaches to Integrate Knowledge (Decision Support Systems)

(Meinke et al., 2007; 2009)

1. Decision-makers approach problems holistically and often intuitively

Conceptual Framework (2): Advances in Science not proportional to their Applications


Science-based Resources to Inform Policy• Integrated Information: Decision Support Systems, considering Uncertainties

Understandable and Actionable!

Final Comments

Climate Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change•Improve Adaptation to Future Climate starting by Improving Adaptation to TODAY’S Climate•Shift from “Noah's Ark” to “Gingko Biloba”: Adapt with flexibility

Climate Science – Society/Policy Interface:• Knowledge/Information Chains: Basic Science – Applied Science – Implementation• Identify weak / missing links, strengthen / create links


Thank you,Obrigado

Walter E. BaethgenHead, Regional and Sectorial Research ProgramLeader, Latina America and CaribbeanIRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University

Tel: (845) 680-4459

email: [email protected]: http://iri.columbia.edu/

Decisions, Policies and Adaptation to Climate Change

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