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Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015

11/6/2016

(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 1

Decisions! Decisions! Decisions!

For the AFP Aloha Chapter

William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRESenior Philanthropic Advisor for Principal Gifts

The Ohio State [email protected]

Tweet: @BillBartolini

GOALTo help you understand different

decision styles and techniques, andgive you useful tools to guide you,your prospects (and maybe staff andchildren) to make decisions moreeffectively.

(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 2

Assumptions

1. We will consider Individual Decisions, notGroup Decisions

2. We will focus on Adults, not Children

3. You will not be a Master of Everything, but willtake away useful information and tools

4. We’ll look at different perspectives



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Predispositions• Culture• Generation• 7 Faces of

Philanthropy• Decision Style

Motivations• Empowerment• Needs• Attitudes

Decision-Making• Bartolini• Daniel Kahneman• Petty & Cacioppo

The individual perspectivespeople bring to the table


Decision StylesDon Lavallo & Olivier Sibony

Early-stage research on decision-makingstyles, McKinsey Quarterly, April, 2013.

Note: as far as I can tell, this hasn’t beenpublished in a peer reviewed journal, orindependently verified.


Decision CriteriaPrefers Ad Hoc Prefers Process

Prefers Action Prefers Caution

Gathers Info Narrowly Gathers Info Widely

Corp Interest Prevails Self-Interest Prevails

Likes Continuity Likes Change

Prefers Storytelling Prefers Facts(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 7


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Decision Criteria -- ASPICPrefers Ad Hoc Prefers Process

Prefers Action Prefers Caution

Gathers Info Narrowly Gathers Info Widely

Corp Interest Prevails Self-Interest Prevails

Likes Continuity Likes Change

Prefers Storytelling Prefers Facts(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 9





The pursuit of needs, wants,desires






The process of selecting from several choices,products, or ideas, and taking action



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Decision-Making Agenda

1. Feeling vs. Thinking… orHeuristics vs. Cognitions… orSystem 1 vs. System 2

2. Ways to Make Decisions3. Making Better Decisions4. Coaching Decision Making


How we Make Decisions:Thinking vs. Feeling

Focus our attention:Extroversion vs. Introversion

Orient to the world:Judgment vs. Perception

Take in information:Sensing vs. Intuition

Decision StylesMyers Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI)


How We Make DecisionsThinking

Analytical Logical problem-solvers Use abstract, cause-and-

effect reasoning “Tough-minded” Strive for impersonal,

objective truth Reasonable Just

Feeling Empathetic Assess impact on people Guided by one’s personal

values “Tender-hearted” Strive for harmony and

individual validation Compassionate Accepting

-- Myers-Briggs Type Indicator,Interpreted by Robert E. Fogal, ACFRE



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System 1 vs. System 2Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast & Slow

Intuition Cognition Fast, drawn from

previous conclusions Provides first

impression Useful when there are

time constraints orpredictability

Slow, conscious consi-deration of the options Provides thoughtful

analysis Useful when times are

turbulent or feedbackis helpful


Definitions…

Intuition the ability to understand something

immediately, without the need for consciousreasoning.

Cognitions Thinking; the mental process of acquiring

knowledge and understanding through thoughtexperience, or the senses.


Definitions…

Emotions Innate, nearly instantaneous evaluative response

of a stimulus compared one’s goals, needs ordirection.

Attitudes Learned, cognitive response to a stimulus,

stored conveniently as a summary ofimpressions.



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23

Learned, cognitive response to a stimulus, storedconveniently as a summary of impressions

Symbolic Attitudes moral beliefs significant values self image

Instrumental Attitudes Intrinsic values of the object Desirable or undesirable actions or attributes

Attitudes


Belief

AttitudeBelief

Belief

Belief

Belief

Beliefs vary in strength andimportance


Change the Beliefsand You Change the Attitude

Introduce New Beliefs Increase the Strength or Importance of a Favorable

Belief Decrease the Strength or Importance of an

Unfavorable Belief



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Attitudes developed thru experience aremore enduring and more likely to be used


Persuasive CommunicationPeople process appeals cognitivelyand/or heuristically

Elaboration Likelihood Model-- Petty & Cacioppo, 1981

Heuristic Systematic Model-- Chaiken, 1980


Central Processing If motivated (involved) If able or willing

1. Persuasion based onpredominant cognitions,positive or negative

2. Stronger cognitivestructure change

3. High need for cognition4. Involvement is a

curvilinear relationship

Peripheral Processing If not motivated If unable

1. Decision making basedon peripheral cues:likeability, experttestimony, rewardsattractiveness

2. Less strong attitudestructure change

Elaboration Likelihood ModelPetty & Cacioppo, 1981



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Myers-BriggsFeeling vs. Thinking

Daniel KahnemanSystem 1 vs. System 2

Petty & CacciopoPeripheral vs. Central Processing

How We make Decisions


Ways to Make Decisions1. Intuitive vs. Rational2. Pro-Con List or Decisional Balance Sheet3. Simple Prioritization Define probability of success Consider opportunity costs of alternatives

www.decision-making-confidence.com(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 37

Ways to Make Decisions4. Satisficing vs. Maximizing Find acceptable alternative, or Find the best possible answer

5. Acquiesce to Authority6. Flipism

www.decision-making-confidence.com(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 38


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Ways to Make Decisions7. Decision Matrix

Criteria Weight Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C

1 2x -2 -2 +42 3x 0 -3 33 4x +8 +4 +44 1x -1 -2 -1

0 13 -3 -3 +3 10


Ways to Make Decisions1. Intuitive vs. Rational2. Pro-Con List or Decisional Balance Sheet3. Simple Prioritization4. Satisficing vs. Maximizing5. Acquiesce to Authority6. Flipism7. Matrix

www.decision-making-confidence.com


Ethical Decision-Making Model The ‘CLICK’ model was developed for the Florida Power Corporation

C – Consequence – what are the consequences if I do this?Who will benefit, who will suffer?

L – Legal – is it legal? Are there considerations based on laws?

I – Image – Would I like to see this on the front page of the newspaper?Will this decision affect our public image?

C – Culture – does this decision support or damage ourorganization’s culture and values.

K – Does it cause a knot in my stomach?Would my mentor or hero approve?

Thanks to Jeff Beach, former National Director, the VON Canada Foundation andArthur Peters, Executive Director, Share Life (Toronto)



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Manage Bias to Make Better Decisions1. Selective evidence We may select evidence that supports our

previously held ideas2. Cognitive inertia It’s just too much effort to change; we’d rather

stay with the pain we know3. Anchoring The first price becomes the source of future

judgments.


Manage Bias to Make Better Decisions

4. Attribution Asymmetry We attribute our failures to outside influences

but others’ failures to them5. Sunk-cost fallacy We don’t want to let go of an idea that’s not

working because we’ve invested so much6. Optimism or Overconfidence


Coaching Decision MakingAnalyze the Decider & Situation

Recognize their Predispositions, styleDetermine the driver: intuition or thinkingPeople make most decisions emotionally; so

listen for the meaningLook for Bias



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Coaching Decision MakingMoving to a Decision

Match the decision model to the importanceof the situationPut a Guesstimate on the chances of successAsk what are the most important factorsQuestion the underlying attitudes/beliefsEngage in premortem thinking


Coaching Decision MakingEngage in premortem thinking…Way to do devil’s advocate thinkingBefore the project starts, ask:

“We’re looking in a crystal ball and this projecthas failed; it’s a fiasco. Now, take two minutesand write down all the reasons why the projectfailed.”

-- Gary Klein, senior scientist at MacroCognition


Coaching Decision MakingMoving to a Decision

Sheena Iyengar Cut. Less is more… Concretize. Make it Real. Categorize. More categories, fewer choices. Condition for complexity. Gradually increase

the complexity.



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Bibliography Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior.

Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 50,179-211.

Bartolini, W F. (2005). Cognitive and emotiveprocessing of altruistic requests (Doctoral dissertation,Kent State University, 2005).

Cacioppo, J. T., & Petty, R. E. (1984) ,"The ElaborationLikelihood Model of Persuasion", in NA - Advances inConsumer Research Volume 11, eds. Thomas C. Kinnear,Provo, UT : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 673-675.


Bibliography Huitt, W. (1992). Problem solving and decision making:

Consideration of individual differences using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Journal of Psychological Type, 24, 33-44. Retrieved from (10/30/2015)http://www.edpsycinteractive.org/papers/prbsmbti.html

Sheena Iyengar, (2011). TED Talk “How to Make ChoosingEasier”

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York:Farrar, Straus and Giroux


Bibliography Mann, L, Harmoni, R., Power, C. (1991). “The GOFER

course in decision making.” In Baron, J., Brown, R. V.Teaching decision making to adolescents. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Pp. 61-78.

Prince, R. A., & File, K. (1994). The seven faces ofphilanthropy: A new approach to cultivating major donors.San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

http://www.decision-making-confidence.com



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Before Giving Blood, people consider… Their attitude about giving blood How they think Significant Others will

feel about their giving blood, and Do they think they can really give it?

-- Ajzen, 1981


Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

Behavior

PerceivedBehavioral

Control

SubjectiveNorms

Attitude

Decision to Act

EmotionalInvolvement

-- Bartolini, 2005


Attitude towardGiving

Anger

Sadness

Contentment

Happiness

Compassion

Puzzlement

-.14

.41

-.18



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Decision to Act

Anger

Sadness

Contentment

Happiness

Compassion

Puzzlement

-.16

.38

-.18

-.14

-.10


Approach to Decision Making1. Is the prospect emotionally

engaged?2. Does s/he have a positive

attitude?3. What will others think?4. Can s/he really do it?


* What reinforcement does thedonor need so intentionbecomes action?


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