Decision Support Tools for WFOs...Decision Support Tools for WFOs Paul Schultz CIRES Performing work...
Transcript of Decision Support Tools for WFOs...Decision Support Tools for WFOs Paul Schultz CIRES Performing work...
Decision Support Tools for WFOs
Paul Schultz CIRES Performing work for NOAA/ESRL/GSD
GSD Science Review 3-5 Nov 2015
1
3-5 Nov 2015 GSD Science Review 2
Decision Support
Decision support
starts with a point
forecast from an NWS
Warning and
Forecast Office Forecasts that have
no error bars are “deterministic”
Decision support starts with a point
forecast from an NWS Warning and
Forecast Office
3-5 Nov 2015 GSD Science Review 3
• Increasingly sophisticated users are optimizing their weather-impacted decisions by considering: – Event probabilities – Alternate scenarios
• The Ensemble Tool in AWIPS II was developed to help forecasters communicate this information
Evolving Role of WFOs
3-5 Nov 2015 GSD Science Review 4
• 10+ forecasts from computer models – Any one of them could be today’s best – Each represents an alternative scenario – Probabilities are estimated from the frequency
of an event in the ensemble: • If 6 out of 10 of the forecast models indicate
precipitation in excess of 1 cm, the probability of precipitation in excess of 1 cm is about 60%
Primary Source: Ensembles
3-5 Nov 2015 GSD Science Review 5
Distribution Viewer
This example comes from
MATLAB
3-5 Nov 2015 GSD Science Review 6
• Weather Ready Nation calls for better decision support by NWS forecasters • Decision support = communicating forecasts and their uncertainty • Uncertainty = probabilities and/or alternative scenarios • Poster gives examples of how the Ensemble Tool enables this
Summary