Decision Support Systems Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support.
Decision Support Systems
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Transcript of Decision Support Systems
TOBY WEX
Graduating: December 2007 Degrees: BS in Industrial Engineering
Emphasis: Engineering Management BS in Computer Science
Emphasis: Computer Technologies Minor: Mathematics
Work Experience: Swiss Colony Co-op, Assistant Project Manager of Fulfillment
Co-op
Developed inventory slotting program Researched and implemented facility layout changes
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DECISIONS AND DECISION MODELING
Types of Decisions
Human Judgment and Decision Making Biases
Modeling Decisions Components
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DECISIONS
Types of Decisions1
SimpleA choice among several alternative.
IntermediateAddition of the process for constructing alternative.
CompleteIncludes active searching for opportunities for decisions.
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1. Druzdzel, M. and Flynn, R. Decision Support Systems.
DATA VS. INFORMATION
Data is a collection of facts from which conclusions may be drawn.2
Information is the organization of the data so conclusion may be drawn. Data Processing/Conversion
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2. Data. (2007). http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=data
DATA VS. INFORMATION
How to get the information needed:
Phase 1: Define Strategy3
Step 1: Educational Grounding Step 2: Diagnostics Step 3: Strategy
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3. Kuhn, M., Lopata, I. and Todd, G.. From Data to Decision.
DATA VS. INFORMATION
How to get the information needed:
Phase 2: Supporting the Strategy3
Step 1: Governance Step 2: Data Step 3: Storage Step 4: Delivery
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3. Kuhn, M., Lopata, I. and Todd, G.. From Data to Decision.
DECISION MAKING
“The cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among variations4.”
Psychological construct
Cannot “see” a decision but can see the effects of a decision.
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4. Wikipedia. (2007). Decision making.
DECISION MAKING STYLE
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator4
Thinking versus Feeling
Extroversion versus Introversion
Judgment versus Perception
Sensing versus Intuition Combination makes up Decision Making Style
Unassisted decisions are biased to some degree.9
4. Wikipedia. (2007). Decision making.
DECISION MODELS
Simplified set of variables of an usually complex, real-world system used to analyze and improve the system.
Simple linear programming has been shown to be superior to human intuitive judgment5.
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5. Druzdzel, M. and Flynn, R. Decision Support Systems.
DECISION MODEL COMPONENTS6
1. Preference Not all outcomes are equally attractive.
2. Available Decision Options Enumerated list or continuous values of policy
variable.
3. Uncertainty One of the most inherent and prevalent
properties of knowledge.
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6. Druzdzel, M. and Flynn, R. Decision Support Systems.
GOOD DECISIONS AND GOOD OUTCOMES
Poor decisions can lead to good outcomes.
Good decisions can lead to poor outcomes.
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DECISION MODELS
Probabilistic Models Naïve Bayes MYCIN’S Certainty Factors Prospector’s Bayesian Model Dempster-Shafer Theory Bayesian Networks Influence Diagrams Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets Rough Sets Non-monotonic Logics
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ENHANCING MANAGEMENT DECISION
Overview of Management Information Systems7
Levels of Information
147. Laudon, K., and Laudon, J. Management information systems
ENHANCING MANAGEMENT DECISION
Types of Management Information Systems Decision Support Systems (DSSs)
Strategic Executive
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ENHANCING MANAGEMENT DECISION
Types of Decision Support System Model-driven DSS Data-driven DSS Communication-driven DSS Document-driven DSS Knowledge-driven DSS
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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
A computer system that aims to assist in the making of a decision, providing support to the choice, model and analyze systems, identify decision opportunities, and structuring decision problems.
History
Reason for development
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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM COMPONENTS
1. DSS Databasea. Transaction
processing systemb. External data
2. DSS Software system
3. User interface
1. Database management system
2. Model-base management system
3. Dialog generation and management system
Laudon-Laudon Druzdel-Flynn
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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
Applications Energy and environment Aerospace/defense Health and pharmaceutical Consumer Automotive Consultants Higher education
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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
Interfaces PrecisionTree
Palisade Corporation www.palisade.com/precisiontree/
GeNIe and SMILE Decision Systems Laboratory, University of Pittsburgh
genie.sis.pitt.edu Analytica!
Lumina Decision Systems www.lumina.com
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PRECISIONTREE
Decision Analysis using Microsoft Excel
PrecisionTree Nodes PrecisionTree allows you to build decision trees
by defining nodes in Excel spreadsheets. Node types offered by PrecisionTree include:
Chance nodes Decision nodes End nodes Logic nodes Reference nodes
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PRECISIONTREE FEATURES
Intuitive and easy to learn
Fully integrated with spreadsheet model
Build decision trees and influence diagrams directly in Excel
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PRECISIONTREE FEATURES
Graphs and reports customized using standard Excel features
Automatic formatting of influence diagrams and decision trees
Influence diagrams show results without being converted to a decision tree
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PRECISIONTREE FEATURES
Decision analysis results updated automatically as model is changed
Perform Sensitivity Analyses, one-way and two-way, on any value in decision tree or influence diagram
Use with @RISK software for complete Monte Carlo simulation
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GENIE AND SMILE
Development environment for building graphical decision-theoretic models
GeNIe is implemented in Visual C++
This makes it not easily portable, although it runs under Windows operating systems
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GENIE AND SMILE
GeNIe allows for building models of any size and complexity, limited only by the capacity of the operating memory of your computer
Models developed using GeNIe can be embedded into any applications and run on any computing platform, using SMILE, which is fully portable
SMILE is Structural Modeling, Inference, and Learning Engine
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ANALYTICA!
“Visual tool for creating, analyzing, and communicating decision models.”
Its intuitive influence diagrams let you create a model the way you think, and communicate clearly with colleagues and clients
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ANALYTICA!
Intelligent Arrays™ let you create and manage multidimensional tables with an ease and reliability unknown in spreadsheets.
Efficient Monte Carlo simulator lets you quickly evaluate risk and uncertainty, and find out what variables really matter and why.
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ANALYTICA! REVIEWS
User Review Tony Cox, Consultant, Cox & Associates, Boulder,
Colorado "Analytica is very easy to learn. ... Once the software
has been learned, it is delightful to use. The number of mouse-clicks and key strokes required to produce desired results is minimal, yet the process to follow is obvious."
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ANALYTICA! REVIEWS
Software Reviews PC Week
"Everything that's wrong with the common PC spreadsheet is fixed in Analytica.“
Inc Technology "A powerful forecasting and business-modeling
package does what spreadsheets never could."
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DESIGNING A DSS
Information process Get desired database set
Process data of database or data warehouse Get good, usable data
Determine type of modeling desired Model versus data driven DSS Probabilistic Design Model
User interface Ease of use a priority for executives
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FORUMS FOR DSS SUPPORT
INFORMS Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences Operations Research Simulation Engineering Management Project Management
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REFERENCES Data. (2007). Retrieved October 31, 2007 from the
World Wide Web: http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=data
Decision Support Laboratory. (2007). http://dsl.sis.pitt.edu/
Diez , F. J. and Druzdzel, M. Reasoning Under Uncertainty. In Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science, pages 880-886, Nadel, L. (Ed.), London: Nature Publishing Group, 2003.
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REFERENCES Druzdzel, M. and Flynn, R. Decision Support Systems.
In Encyclopedia of Library and Information Science, Vol. 67, Suppl. 30, pages 120-133, Allen Kent (ed.), Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 2000.
GeNIe and SMILE. (2007). http://genie.sis.pitt.edu/ Lumina Decision Systems. (2007).
http://www.lumina.com/index.html PrecisionTree. (2007).
http://www.palisade.com/precisiontree/
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REFERENCES Kuhn, M., Lopata, I. and Todd, G.. From Data to
Decision: Mastering Information Management. Outlook Journal, June 2005. Link: http://www.accenture.com/Global/Research_and_Insights/Outlook/By_Subject/Business_Intelligence/FromDataToDecision.htm
Laudon, K., and Laudon, J. Management information systems: managing the digital firm. Pearson Prentice Hall: 2004, 8th ed., pages 346-373.
Wikipedia. (2007). Decision making. Retrieved May 23, 2007 from the World Wide Web: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making
Wikipedia. (2007). Decision support system. Retrieved May 23, 2007 from the World Wide Web: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_support_system
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REFERENCES Wikipedia. (2007). Executive information system.
Retrieved May 23, 2007 from the World Wide Web: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Support_System
Wikipedia. (2007). Strategic information system. Retrieved May 23, 2007 from the World Wide Web: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_information_system
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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
Decisions and Decision Making
Decision Modeling
Management Information Systems
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