decision making..ppt
Transcript of decision making..ppt
Making Decisions in Organizations
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Three Good Reasons Why You Should Care About . . . Decision MakingDecision Making1. Human decision making is inherently
imperfect, although these imperfections can be overcome if you know what they are and how they operate
2. Functioning effectively in today’s business environment requires awareness of cultural differences in the way people make decisions
3. Groups are widely used to make organizational decisions despite the fact they often are ineffective at dealing with the kinds of tasks they are likely to face
Decision Making
The process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats that confront them by analyzing options and making determinations about specific organizational goals and courses of action.
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The Nature of Managerial Decision Making -
• Decisions in response to opportunities -occurs when managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance to benefit customers, employees, and other stakeholder groups
• Decisions in response to threats - events inside or outside the organization are adversely affecting organizational performance
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The Decision-Making Process
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Cultural Differences
Recognizing problems
Preference for decision-making unit
Who makes the decisions?
Time taken to make decisions
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Organizational Decisions
Programmed vs. Nonprogrammed
Certain vs. Uncertain
Top-down vs. Empowered
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Programmed versus Nonprogrammed
Programmed decisions Programmed decisions are routine decisions, made by lower-level personnel, that rely on predetermined courses of actionNonprogrammed decisions Nonprogrammed decisions are decisions for which there are no ready-made solutions. The decision maker confronts a unique situation in which the solutions are novel
Strategic decisions Strategic decisions are nonprogrammed decisions that have important long-term implications for the organization and are made by coalitions of high-level executives
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Examples of Strategic Decisions
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Certain versus Uncertain
Usually expressed as statements of riskWhat makes an outcome risky is the probability of obtaining the desired outcome Objective probabilities are based on concrete,
verifiable data Subjective probabilities are based on personal
beliefs or hunchesTo make the best possible decisions in organizations, people seek to “manage” the risks they take
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Top-down decision-making Top-down decision-making puts the power to make decisions in the hands of managers, leaving lower-level workers with little or no opportunity to make decisions
Empowered decision-making Empowered decision-making allows employees to make the decisions required to do their jobs without seeking supervisory approval More likely to lead to effective decisions Helps build commitment to decisions
Top-down versus Empowered
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Decision-Making Approaches
The Rational-Economic Model
The Administrative Model
Image Theory
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The Rational-Economic Model
Rational DecisionsRational Decisions: Decisions that maximize the attainment of individual, group, or organizational goals
Rational-Economic ModelRational-Economic Model: The model of decision making according to which decision makers consider all possible alternatives to problems before selecting the optimal solution
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The Administrative ModelA model of decision making that recognizes that decision makers may have a limited view of the problems confronting themSatisficing DecisionsSatisficing Decisions: Decisions made by selecting the first acceptable alternative as it becomes availableBounded RationalityBounded Rationality: The idea that people lack the cognitive skills required to formulate and solve highly complex business problems in a completely objective, rational wayBounded DiscretionBounded Discretion: The tendency to limit decision alternatives to those that fall within the bounds of current moral and ethical standards
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Image Theory
A theory of decision making that recognizes that decisions are made in an automatic, intuitive fashion based on actions that best fit their personal standards, goals, and plans for the future
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Characteristics of DecisionsDecision makers have a limited view of the problems confronting them Bounded rationality
Decision makers consider solutions as they become available Satisficing
Decision makers face time constraintsDecision makers are sensitive to political “face saving” pressure
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Biases(Partial,unfairly) in Decision MakingFraming effects refers to the tendency for people to make different decisions based on how a problem is presented to them Positive framing tends to make decision makers risk averse Negative framing tends to make decision makers risk seeking
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Advantages of group decision making Pooling of resources Specialization of labor Greater decision acceptance
Disadvantages of group decision making Wasted time Group conflict Intimidation(demotivated karna) by group leaders
Conclusion: neither groups nor individuals are always superior
Group vs. Individual Decisions
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Group vs. Individual Decisions
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When members of a group develop a very strong group spirit – high levels of cohesiveness – they sometimes become so concerned about not disrupting the like-mindedness of the group that they may be reluctant to challenge the group’s decisions
When this happens, group members tend to isolate themselves from outside information, and the process of critical thinking deteriorates
Groupthink
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Improving Group Decision Making
The Stepladder Technique
The Delphi Technique
The Nominal Group Technique
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Stepladder TechniqueA technique for improving the quality of group decisions that minimizes the tendency
for group members to be unwilling to present their ideas by adding new members to a group one at a time and requiring each to present his or her ideas
independently to a group that already has discussed the problem at hand
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Effectiveness of Stepladder Technique
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Delphi TechniqueA systematic way of collecting and organizing the opinions of several experts
into a single decision
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Nominal Group Technique
A technique for improving group decisions in which small groups of individuals systematically present and discuss their ideas before privately voting on their preferred solution. The most preferred solution is accepted as the group’s decision
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Computer-Based Approaches Electronic Meeting SystemsElectronic Meeting Systems: Involve holding
teleconferencees in which individuals in different locations participate in group conferences by means of telephone lines or direct satellite transmissions
Computer-Assisted CommunicationComputer-Assisted Communication: The sharing of information, such as text messages and data relevant to the decision, over computer networks
Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS)Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS):: Interactive computer-based systems that combine communication, computer, and decision technologies to improve the effectiveness of group problem-solving meetings