DECISION-MAKING SYSTEMS

Decision Support Software&

Artificial Intelligence(especially Expert Systems)

Making a Decision

• When you have a decision to make, you can select to use one of two techniques: you can optimize or satisfice.

• Optimization– F

• Satisficing– F

Making a Decision• When did you use optimization in this course?

– When you used

• When did you use the satisficing technique in this course?– When you

• Trial and error• Determining a break-even point• Basic what-if analysis• Goal seek• Through the creation of data tables (one-variable and two-variable)• Scenario Manager

Comparing a DSS to Artificial Intelligence

• Decision Support System (DSS)– U involved with the system.– Relies on . The user must

understand problem situation and what needs to be done. – The user

• Artificial Intelligence– User because all of the

expertise– The /choice.

• In general, spreadsheets are considered what?– D

• Artificial Intelligence is the science of making machines– The abilities to reason through a process, learn, being

able to adapt and being able to solve a problem.– Previously studied intelligent agents, expert systems,

genetic algorithms and neural networks.

• Optimization is the decision making technique used in which form of artificial intelligence– ??

Applications of Genetic Algorithms• Deciding which combination of projects a firm should invest in,

given limited investment dollars.

• Generating solutions to routing problems– How much cable or track to lay?– What path/route should your delivery vehicles take?

• Used to optimize production schedules (make the best use of your production resources)

• Investment companies use them to generate optimal stock/bond portfolios by considering different combinations of stocks and bonds .

• Clothing manufacturing: cutting a piece of fabric so as to generate the least amount of waste.

The Traveling Salesman

Nails

AN EXPERT SYSTEM

is an artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a

conclusion.

An expert system

Tricks of the trade Knowledge base

Reasoning Process

Expert Systems• Programming is in the form of Rules, If-Then

statements, and Reasons

• Decision Support System guides you, but you must reason through the problem.

• Expert Systems : you provide the facts, it solves the problem.

• Used as diagnostic and prescriptive.

Expert System

Rules for a Bank

Mortgage Application

Traffic Light Expert System