Decision and biases
Transcript of Decision and biases
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Warm Welcome to
Decision Making
Sept 17, 2015
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Every Business is built by DECISIONSEvery Leader is made by DECISIONS
Every Action is the result of a DECISIONPlan them well
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• Books: Decision making
• Self Assessment
Presentation Structure
• Q&A
• Decision biases
• Steps for decision making
• Six Thinking Hats
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Exercises for Self Assessment
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Statements 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 13, 15, 16, 18 • Reversed marked.
[very often :1 mark while Not at all 5 marks.]
Statements 1, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 17 • Positively marked.
[very often: 5 marks while Not at all 1 mark]
Key to – Exercise on Decision Making
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1. Establishing +ve Decision-making Env (Q 3, 7, 13, 16)
2. Generating Potential Solutions (Q 4, 8, 11)
3. Evaluating Alternatives (Q 1, 6, 15)
4. Deciding (Q 5, 10, 17)
5. Checking the Decision (Q 2, 9)
6. Communicating & Implementing (Q 12, 14, 18)
Steps to –
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4 Rules
Do not act on Emotional responseFind as many downsides to an Idea
Look at the Big Picture
Protect the downside
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4 Rules
Do not act on Emotional response• H-A-L-T
• Needy Person Index
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4 Rules
Do not act on Emotional response
Find as many downsides to an IdeaLook at the Big Picture
Protect the downside
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4 Rules
Do not act on Emotional response
Find as many downsides to an Idea
Look at the Big PictureProtect the downside
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4 Rules
Do not act on Emotional response
Find as many downsides to an Idea
Look at the Big Picture
Protect the downside
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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We see things as per our perception and want;
Decision Biases
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Credit to self for success, blame to environment / others for failures
Decision Biases
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Decision Biases
Selective Perception
Impression EffectPresentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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Is it?
Decision Biases
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If the decision is taken NOW, Recency effect takes over!
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+ / – ve Halo effect
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression Effect
Presentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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How Short Or Long is the movie?
Have you stopped beating your wife?
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effect
Framing effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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INR 10 /- saving on INR 50 /- item
Or
INR 10 /- saving on INR 1000/- item
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Decision BiasesSelective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effectFraming effect
Escalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effect
Categorisation effectGroup ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effect
Group ThinkAction OrientedSelf Interest
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup Think
Action OrientedSelf Interest
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Decision Biases
Selective PerceptionImpression EffectPresentation effectFraming effectEscalation of commitment effectCategorisation effectGroup ThinkAction Oriented
Self Interest
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