Decesion Making Tahir Khan, University Of Peshawar
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Transcript of Decesion Making Tahir Khan, University Of Peshawar
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By Tahir Muhammad
Final Prof (E)Session 2010-
2015
DECISION MAKING IN AN
ORGANIZATION
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• Introduction:
• Ways of thinking About Decision making:
• Types Of Decision Making:
• Levels Of Decision Making:
• Styles Of Decision Making:
• Decision Making Under Diff Conditions:
• Steps In The Decision Making Process:
Includes
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Decision-Making Process:
The sequence of events taken by management to solve the problems
A systematic process.
Introduction
Analysis reveals that virtually every manager makes decisions
This points to decision-making as the common function of managers
Some writers have used the term "decision-maker" in place of manager
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Linear Thinking: Each problem has a single solution, will only affect the
problem area, not the rest of the organization, Once implemented, will remain valid and should be
evaluated only for how well it solves the problem. Problems are conceived of as discrete, singular, and unique.
Ways Of Thinking About Decision Making:
Fast-food restaurants Not an effective Problems with this
type…
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Systems Thinking:
More broad approach to problem-solving. Problems are complex and related to a situation Solutions not only solve the problem but will also impact on
the rest of the organization Situations change problems evolve and new solutions are
necessary
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Programmed Decisions:Characterize those problems that are Well understood Highly structured Routine & Repetitive and That lend to systematic procedures
and rules.
Each time decision is made similar to every other time.
May lend themselves to linear thinking
Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Types Of Decision Making
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Nonprogrammed Decisions:Nonprogrammed decisions are those problems that are Not well understood Not highly structured Tend to be unique And do not lend to routine or systematic
procedures. Happens so rarely
Rely heavily on the decision-making abilities of managers
There is no routine solution available
Use of data from past problems
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Strategic Administrative Operational Strategic Decision-Making: Determine the goals of the entire
organization, its purpose and direction. The task of top management & has the "big
picture" How relate to external environments
Levels Of Decision Making
Entire business must be made at the highest level
Goals are not very specific & nonprogrammer in nature
E.g To produce a breakfast or to enter a new market
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Administrative Decision-Making: Those made on a lower level Usually made by midlevel management concerns the development of tactics to
accomplish the strategic goals defined by top management. specific & departmental. E.g To produce a specific kind of cereal, in this
case a fruit-and-fiber breakfast cereal.
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Operational Decision-Making: Made on the lowest or supervisory level Concerns the course of daily operations determine the manner in which operations are
conducted Most effective and efficient way to accomplish
the goals stated on the administrative level. E.g breakfast cereal, to produce each week
10,000 boxes holding 12 ounces.
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As there are different kinds of decisions, there are different kinds of decision-making styles.
* Types Of Manager On The Basis Of Styles Of Decision Making: The "Smoother" or Problem Avoider: The Problem Solver: The Problem Seeker:
Styles Of Decision Making
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The Smoother or Problem Avoider
(PA) : The PA seeks to preserve the status quo Acts to keep from making changes
to maintain current conditions Difficulty smooth over or ignore it
completely PA may appear blind to difficulties If the business is dynamic, changing
environment active approach will be more effective.
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The Problem Solver:• Most common managerial style • No hesitation to make changes when good and
necessary.• Expect problems and solve in the normal
course of doing business. No prior commitment to make changes Accepts conditions of risk and uncertainty. Preoccupied & always in a reactive mode.
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The Problem Seeker: Actively seeks out problems and attempts to deal with them
before they emerge as major difficulties for a business. Future planning and contingencies creation are involved Believes to anticipate, not merely to react Uses the data analysis, to understand the present, to
project the future. Efficient way to deal with small problems before they
become big ones. But may lead to a neglect of current needs and situations
Problem Seeker Manager
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Conditions Of Certainty:• Results are known in advance• No unanticipated results are there• Decisions made under this are programmed • Possible in the most simple situations• Encounters a degree of risk
Conditions Of Risk:• Results are not definitely known• But will probably fall within a known range• Risk in terms of probability• A fraction between the two extremes. • Use past data estimate the probabilities of
specific outcomes
Decision Making Under Diff Conditions
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Conditions Of Uncertainty:
Cannot predict the outcome of a decision There is no past data upon which to make a
prediction. May be due to the following factors: too many variables in the situation not enough knowledge about the variables or both
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1) Situational Analysis:• First examine the data of the current
situation.• External consultant accurate approach to
situation• Focus on:
The internal factors (Organizational Audit) The external factors (environmental scan) Relationship between these two SWOT
analysis
Steps In The Decision Making
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2) Setting Performance Standards:• Whether the goal is achieved or not• Accountability
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3) Generation Of Alternatives:• “do something” or “do nothing”.
Do nothing - If goal is achieving/ Doing creates problems
Do Something - To creatively generate all sorts of alternatives
• Brainstorming • Ideas are recorded on a chart or chalkboard • Selection action alternative consequence analysis
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Consequences Evaluation: When Implemented Should be Evaluated Best alternative selection
Does this alternative achieve the organizational goal?
Any undesirable consequences or side effects?
Can the organization afford this alternative?
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5) Pilot-Testing And Full Implementation:• Once an alternative is chosen, the alternative (s) must be
pilot-tested• Should not proceed to full implementation • Final chance to modify (feedback)• After pilot test, fully implemented• After a period of time measured and evaluated.
The decision-making process, complete with a feedback loop
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• So Be Ready …….
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