1

DECEMBER 2019

1

2September 2018 2 2

3

The Saskatchewan Difference

Economic Stability

• Diversified economy balanced with natural

resources

• Growing population

• Majority government with strong mandate

Fiscal Responsibility

• Budget 2019-20: Achieved plan to return

to balance

• Targeted infrastructure investments

Financial Flexibility

• 2nd lowest provincial debt in Canada

• Low taxation levels

• Strong credit ratings

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4

Renewable and Non-Renewable Resources

Uranium

Gold & Base Metals

Potash

Diamonds

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TOP SASKATCHEWAN PRODUCTS 2018

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6

Diversified Economy

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2018 GDP BY INDUSTRY

Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting

9%

Mining and petroleum27%

Manufacturing6%

Construction7%

Transportation, warehousing & utilities7%

Wholesale and retail trade9%

Finance, insurance & real estate

12%

Business services8%

Gov't services5%

Education and healthcare

10%

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Export DrivenHighest proportion of international exports

among provinces

39% of GDP

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8

Food, Fuel and Fertilizer INTERNATIONAL EXPORTS BY PRODUCT

2018 = $30.8B

Oil and Petroleum

25%

Potash21%

Wheat11%

Canola Seed10%

Processed Canola

(oil/meal)8%

Other Crops9%

Uranium2%

Other 14%

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Export Driven

SASKATCHEWAN EXPORTS TO USA2018 = $16.9B

INTERNATIONAL EXPORT MARKETS2018 = $30.8B

USA, 55%

Other, 16%

Japan, 4%

Brazil, 3%

Mexico, 3%

Indonesia, 2%India, 2%

China, 15%

Oil, 45%

Potash, 18%

Canola, 10%

Line Pipe for Oil and Gas

Pipelines, 3%

Uranium, 3%

Wheat and Oats, 5%

Other, 16%

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Among the lowest personal taxes

in Canada

Competitive business tax environment

Commitment to Low Taxes

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Economic Forecasts 2019-20 Mid-Year

(Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Noted)

Actual2018 2019 2020 2021

Real GDP 1.3 0.6 1.7 2.6

Nominal GDP 1.4 3.3 2.3 5.0

CPI 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8

Employment Growth (000 jobs) 2.4 11.5 5.0 5.2

Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.6 5.3 4.9

Retail Sales (0.3) (0.1) 2.3 3.1

SASKATCHEWAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

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Strong Population Fundamentals

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Num

ber o

f Peo

ple

Source: Statistics Canada

1999-2008Average (-720)

SASKATCHEWAN POPULATION GROWTH (January 1)

2009-2018 Average (+14,666)

POPULATION GROWTH

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Fiscal Track Record

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

$ bi

llion

s

Surplus/Deficit (left axis)

Total Revenue (right axis)

Total Expense (right axis)

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Balanced Revenue Sources

2019-20F RevenueTotal = $15.4B

Taxation49%

Resources12%

Net Income from GBEs8%

Other Own Source

14%

Federal Transfers17%

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Non-Renewable Resource Revenues

Forecasting 12% of revenues from

resource royalties32%

18%

11%12%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

$ bi

llion

s

Other Revenues

Resource Revenues

→ Forecast

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Crop Production

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Oil Production

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Potash Production

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Resource Assumptions &Sensitivities

2019-20 Mid-Year

2019 2020 2021

WTI Oil Price (US$/bbl) 56.50 57.00 62.00

Average Well-Head Price (C$ per barrel) 57.98 56.01 61.64

Natural Gas (C$ per GJ) 1.40 1.85 1.95

Potash (C$ per K20 tonne) 507.36 492.49 498.41

Potash (US$ per KCI tonne) 234.25 228.47 232.49

Wheat (C$ per tonne) 245.51 245.79 245.97

Canola (C$ per tonne) 469.58 465.00 482.91

Oil Price (WTI US$/barrel)

Exchange Rate (USD/CAD)

Potash Prices (US$/KCI tonne)

$1

1 cent

$10

$15M

$28M

$54M

SENSITIVITIES TO BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS

Change Net Impact

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Targeted Infrastructure Investments 2019-20

Saskatchewan Builds Capital Plan = $1.1B

Crown Corporation InfrastructureInvestments = $1.6B

Total Infrastructure Investment= $2.7B

SaskPower = $883M

SaskTel = $298M

SaskEnergy = $268M

SaskWater = $34M

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Saskatchewan’s Climate Change Strategy

Targeting 50% renewable power sources by 2030

Carbon Capture

Industry Emission Targets

Zero-till farming practices

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Debt Management Program CPP

4%

MTNs7%

Promissory Notes11%

Public (CAD)72%

Public (USD)6%

DEBT OUTSTANDING

CAD Focused

Long Maturity Profile (+18 years)

Sinking Fund

Modest Near-Term Maturities

$4.0B Short-Term Borrowing Capacity

Forecast as at March 31, 2020

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Manageable Debt

One of the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratios among provinces

MANAGEABLE DEBT

($M)

Budget2019-20

Mid-YearProjection

General Revenue Fund

- Operating 6,150.0 6,150.0

- SaskBuilds Capital Plan 5,404.0 5,404.0

Other GSO Debt 380.1 404.7

GSO Debt 11,934.1 11,958.7

Crown Corporation Debt 9,757.8 9,431.1

Public Debt 21,691.9 21,389.8

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2019-20 Borrowing Program (CAD)

BORROWING SOURCES

(millions of dollars)Actual

2018-19Budget

2019-20Mid-Year

Projection

Canadian Debentures 2,750.0 1,950.0 1,900.0 Promissory Notes 391.0 210.8 203.7 Canada Pension Plan 18.0 103.9 70.0 Total 3,159.0 2,264.7 2,173.7

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Credit Ratings

RATING AGENCYCURRENT RATING

LONG-TERMCURRENT RATING

SHORT-TERM

MOODY’S Aaa Not Rated

STANDARD & POOR’S AA A-1+

FITCH AA F1+

DBRS AA R-1 (high)

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Province of Saskatchewan

CONTACT INFORMATION:Rod BalkwillExecutive Director1 (306) 787-9473rod.balkwill@gov.sk.ca

saskatchewan.ca 26

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APPENDIX

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28

Manageable Debt

29

Term Debt Outstanding

Forecast as at March 31, 2020

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Crude Oil Production

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Oil & Gas Pools

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Saskatchewan Builds Capital Plan

1,361

927

1,174

612 780 823

954

1,154

1,757

1,552

1,172 1,123 1,042 982 958

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19Forecast

2019-20Budget

2021-22Target

SASKATCHEWAN BUILDS CAPITAL PLAN($ Millions)