December 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
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Transcript of December 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
December 2015 Quick Facts
23456789
10111213
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of January 16, 2016. All data from MLS PropertyInformation Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K.
+ 14.0%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Single-Family Only
+ 7.6%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Condominium Only
+ 11.3%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed SalesAll Properties
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
In 2015, national residential real estate, by and large, had a good year. Supply and demand were healthy in an environment rife with low interest rates and improved employment. The Federal Reserve finally increased short-term rates in December, and more increases are expected in 2016. Housing markets have shown a willingness to accept this. Save for a few expensive outliers where low inventory and high prices have become the norm, a balanced market is anticipated for much of the country for the foreseeable future. Improved inventory and affordability remain key factors for continued optimism.
Closed Sales increased 14.0 percent for Single-Family homes and 7.6 percent for Condominium homes. Pending Sales increased 20.2 percent for Single-Family homes and 22.4 percent for Condominium homes. Inventory decreased 17.0 percent for Single-Family homes and 7.7 percent for Condominium homes.
The Median Sales Price was up 4.7 percent to $465,000 for Single-Family homes and 5.2 percent to $445,000 for Condominium homes. Days on Market increased 1.3 percent for Single-Family homes but decreased 5.4 percent for Condominium homes. Supply decreased 28.0 percent for Single-Family homes and 12.5 percent for Condominium homes.
Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate near 2.0 percent to close 2015, and that rate is expected to increase next year. Residential real estate is considered a healthy piece of the national economy. Contributing factors from within the industry include better lending standards and foreclosures falling back to more traditional levels. Declining unemployment, higher wages and low fuel prices have also conspired to improve personal budgets.
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
City of Boston Overview
Pending Sales
New Listings
Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Dec-2014 Dec-2015 + / – YTD 2014 YTD 2015 + / –
97.1% 97.6%
+ 1.4%
+ 0.5%Percent of OriginalList Price Received
Days on Market Until Sale
95.3%
+ 1.3%
+ 0.7%
80
96.0%
Pending Sales
Median Sales Price
+ 10.3%14,777654 786 + 20.2% 13,396
- 17.0% -- --
- 4.0% 98 95 - 3.1%
--
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory 2.5
$444,000 + 3.7%
79
101 97
71
-- -- --
2,847 2,362
1.8 - 28.0%
$465,000 + 4.7% $458,000
70
14,313 + 7.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 2
New Listings 603 635 + 5.3% 18,319 19,183 + 4.7%
Closed Sales 1,133 1,292 + 14.0% 13,294
$475,000
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Dec-2014 Dec-2015 + / – YTD 2014 YTD 2015 + / –
+ 0.6%
Median Sales Price $423,000 $445,000 + 5.2% $415,000 $450,000 + 8.4%
Closed Sales 815 877 + 7.6% 10,408 10,467
- 7.4%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,307 1,206 - 7.7% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 106 101 - 4.7% 108 100
--
Days on Market Until Sale 56 53 - 5.4% 56 52 - 7.1%
Months Supply of Inventory 1.6 1.4 - 12.5% -- --
+ 0.8%
Pending Sales 447 547 + 22.4% 10,358 10,833 + 4.6%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
97.8% 98.4% + 0.6% 99.2% 100.0%
+ 5.3%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 3
New Listings 396 463 + 16.9% 12,626 13,294
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 753 + 1.6% 482 - 15.6%
Feb-2015 561 + 7.1% 452 - 0.4%
Mar-2015 720 + 0.7% 584 - 15.7%
Apr-2015 800 - 7.8% 678 - 22.2%
May-2015 1,102 - 9.4% 953 - 5.1%
Jun-2015 1,885 + 11.2% 1,382 + 8.2%
Jul-2015 1,930 + 9.9% 1,349 + 12.6%
Aug-2015 1,764 + 14.8% 1,216 + 6.7%
Sep-2015 1,259 + 17.1% 909 + 5.2%
Oct-2015 1,217 + 15.1% 816 - 6.0%
Nov-2015 1,030 + 5.5% 769 + 17.8%
Dec-2015 1,292 + 14.0% 877 + 7.6%
Total 14,313 + 7.7% 10,467 + 0.6%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 4
1,090
838
1,133
815
1,292
877
Single-Family Condominium
December
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+7.6%-2.7%+3.9%
20152014 20152014
14,032
10,958
13,294
10,408
14,313
10,467
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+0.6%-5.0%-5.3%
20152014 20152014
+14.0% +7.7%
2013 2013 2013 2013
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 $445,000 + 6.6% $442,500 + 10.9%
Feb-2015 $440,000 + 8.6% $403,568 + 3.5%
Mar-2015 $431,000 + 1.1% $445,000 + 6.0%
Apr-2015 $466,750 + 6.3% $438,150 + 10.4%
May-2015 $478,750 + 4.1% $454,000 + 9.1%
Jun-2015 $525,000 + 2.9% $455,000 + 3.9%
Jul-2015 $524,900 + 4.9% $460,000 + 9.8%
Aug-2015 $498,700 + 2.3% $460,000 + 9.9%
Sep-2015 $455,000 + 8.1% $428,500 + 3.6%
Oct-2015 $435,000 0.0% $455,000 + 16.0%
Nov-2015 $477,250 + 7.2% $450,000 + 8.3%
Dec-2015 $465,000 + 4.7% $445,000 + 5.2%
Median $475,000 + 3.7% $450,000 + 8.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 5
$435,000
$405,000
$444,000$423,000
$465,000$445,000
Single-Family Condominium
December
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium
+5.2%+4.4%+2.1%
20152014 20152014
$435,000
$391,500
$458,000
$415,000
$475,000$450,000
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+8.4%+6.0%+5.3%
20152014 20152014
+4.7% +3.7%
2013 2013 2013 2013
Housing Affordability Index
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 103 + 1.0% 103 - 2.8%
Feb-2015 104 - 1.9% 114 + 3.6%
Mar-2015 105 + 4.0% 102 - 1.0%
Apr-2015 98 0.0% 104 - 3.7%
May-2015 96 0.0% 101 - 4.7%
Jun-2015 86 - 1.1% 99 - 2.0%
Jul-2015 84 - 4.5% 96 - 8.6%
Aug-2015 90 - 1.1% 97 - 8.5%
Sep-2015 99 - 4.8% 105 - 0.9%
Oct-2015 104 + 2.0% 99 - 13.2%
Nov-2015 94 - 6.0% 100 - 6.5%
Dec-2015 97 - 4.0% 101 - 4.7%
Average 97 -1.4% 102 -4.4%
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 6
103111
101106
97101
Single-Family Condominium
December
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium
-4.7%-4.5%-1.9%
103
114
98108
95100
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-7.4%-5.3%-4.9%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
-4.0% -3.1%
2013 2013 2013 2013
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 2,712 - 0.1% 1,323 - 13.0%
Feb-2015 2,501 - 12.7% 1,262 - 20.6%
Mar-2015 2,677 - 14.5% 1,411 - 16.6%
Apr-2015 3,414 - 6.6% 1,783 - 5.5%
May-2015 3,973 - 6.1% 1,980 - 3.4%
Jun-2015 4,156 - 3.2% 1,978 - 1.9%
Jul-2015 4,168 - 1.5% 1,914 - 1.4%
Aug-2015 4,039 - 1.5% 1,807 + 1.7%
Sep-2015 4,324 - 1.4% 2,096 + 6.4%
Oct-2015 4,105 - 3.7% 2,027 + 2.4%
Nov-2015 3,360 - 5.9% 1,742 + 5.1%
Dec-2015 2,362 - 17.0% 1,206 - 7.7%
Average 3,483 - 5.6% 1,711 - 4.0%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 7
2,730
1,510
2,847
1,307
2,362
1,206
Single-Family Condominium
December
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium
-7.7%-13.4%+4.3%
20152014 20152014
-17.0%
2013 2013
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 3.6 - 2.7% 2.7 0.0%
Feb-2015 4.5 - 18.2% 2.8 - 20.0%
Mar-2015 3.7 - 15.9% 2.4 0.0%
Apr-2015 4.3 + 2.4% 2.6 + 18.2%
May-2015 3.6 + 2.9% 2.1 + 5.0%
Jun-2015 2.2 - 12.0% 1.4 - 12.5%
Jul-2015 2.2 - 8.3% 1.4 - 12.5%
Aug-2015 2.3 - 14.8% 1.5 - 6.3%
Sep-2015 3.4 - 17.1% 2.3 0.0%
Oct-2015 3.4 - 15.0% 2.5 + 8.7%
Nov-2015 3.3 - 10.8% 2.3 - 8.0%
Dec-2015 1.8 - 28.0% 1.4 - 12.5%
Average 3.1 - 5.8% 2.0 + 0.8%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 8
2.5
1.8
2.5
1.61.8
1.4
Single-Family Condominium
December
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium
-12.5%-11.1%0.0%
20152014 20152014
-28.0%
2013 2013
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 91 + 11.0% 63 - 4.5%
Feb-2015 105 + 11.7% 79 - 1.3%
Mar-2015 102 + 14.6% 69 0.0%
Apr-2015 90 + 4.7% 59 0.0%
May-2015 72 + 9.1% 47 - 7.8%
Jun-2015 60 + 1.7% 42 - 8.7%
Jul-2015 55 - 3.5% 41 - 18.0%
Aug-2015 61 + 3.4% 46 - 13.2%
Sep-2015 64 - 4.5% 52 - 1.9%
Oct-2015 70 - 1.4% 52 - 1.9%
Nov-2015 70 - 6.7% 58 + 1.8%
Dec-2015 80 + 1.3% 53 - 5.4%
Total 71 + 2.1% 50 - 6.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 9
71
57
79
56
80
53
Single-Family Condominium
December
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium
-5.4%-1.8%+11.3%
72
55
70
56
71
52
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-7.1%+1.8%-2.8%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+1.3% +1.4%
2013 2013 2013 2013
Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 95.7% + 0.4% 97.8% + 0.7%
Feb-2015 95.1% - 0.6% 97.9% - 0.1%
Mar-2015 96.1% - 0.3% 98.6% - 0.1%
Apr-2015 97.2% - 0.2% 100.3% + 0.9%
May-2015 98.7% + 0.5% 100.8% + 0.3%
Jun-2015 99.2% + 0.5% 101.6% + 0.9%
Jul-2015 99.1% + 0.9% 101.1% + 1.3%
Aug-2015 98.2% + 0.5% 100.5% + 0.6%
Sep-2015 97.4% + 0.7% 99.4% + 0.4%
Oct-2015 96.6% + 0.1% 99.6% + 1.1%
Nov-2015 96.9% + 0.6% 99.3% + 1.1%
Dec-2015 96.0% + 0.7% 98.4% + 0.6%
Average 97.6% + 0.4% 100.0% + 0.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 10
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
95.8% 97.8%95.3% 97.8%96.0% 98.4%
Single-Family Condominium
December
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium
+0.6%0.0%-0.5%
96.7% 98.7%97.1% 99.2%97.6% 100.0%
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+0.8%+0.5%+0.4%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+0.7% +0.5%
2013 2013 2013 2013
Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 725 + 11.9% 559 - 11.8%
Feb-2015 672 - 15.6% 570 - 23.7%
Mar-2015 1,168 - 7.4% 982 - 7.1%
Apr-2015 1,599 + 7.7% 1,269 + 2.9%
May-2015 1,778 + 9.4% 1,279 + 12.8%
Jun-2015 1,834 + 19.5% 1,358 + 18.8%
Jul-2015 1,352 + 12.3% 949 + 2.5%
Aug-2015 1,209 + 20.7% 808 + 12.4%
Sep-2015 1,277 + 19.2% 859 + 2.6%
Oct-2015 1,331 + 12.2% 928 + 12.2%
Nov-2015 1,046 + 12.6% 725 + 10.9%
Dec-2015 786 + 20.2% 547 + 22.4%
Total 14,777 + 10.3% 10,833 + 4.6%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 11
595
443
654
447
786
547
Single-Family Condominium
December
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+22.4%+0.9%+9.9%
14,072
11,047
13,396
10,358
14,777
10,833
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+4.6%-6.2%-4.8%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+20.2% +10.3%
2013 2013 2013 2013
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Jan-2015 902 - 4.6% 711 - 10.7%
Feb-2015 705 - 38.6% 618 - 33.5%
Mar-2015 1,563 - 12.9% 1,256 - 3.9%
Apr-2015 2,549 + 12.7% 1,749 + 10.8%
May-2015 2,607 + 4.0% 1,630 + 10.1%
Jun-2015 2,390 + 18.3% 1,547 + 16.7%
Jul-2015 1,736 + 14.1% 1,090 + 2.1%
Aug-2015 1,454 + 13.5% 917 + 17.6%
Sep-2015 2,059 + 10.2% 1,436 + 12.3%
Oct-2015 1,595 + 2.1% 1,136 + 4.6%
Nov-2015 988 + 22.4% 741 + 23.7%
Dec-2015 635 + 5.3% 463 + 16.9%
Total 19,183 + 4.7% 13,294 + 5.3%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 12
541
396
603
396
635
463
Single-Family Condominium
December
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium
+16.9%0.0%+11.5%
18,336
13,477
18,319
12,626
19,183
13,294
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+5.3%-6.3%-0.1%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+5.3% +4.7%
2013 2013 2013 2013
City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Dec-2014 Dec-2015 + / – YTD 2014 YTD 2015 + / –
+ 0.5%
Median Sales Price $489,500 $505,000 + 3.2% $469,950 $515,000 + 9.6%
Closed Sales 416 451 + 8.4% 5,287 5,316
- 3.1%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 654 620 - 5.2% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 101 97 - 4.0% 98 95
--
Days on Market Until Sale 53 52 - 1.9% 50 49 - 2.0%
Months Supply of Inventory 1.6 1.4 - 12.5% -- --
+ 0.5%
Pending Sales 246 281 + 14.2% 5,286 5,540 + 4.8%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
97.6% 98.2% + 0.6% 99.2% 99.7%
+ 4.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by ShowingTime 10K. | 13
New Listings 196 265 + 35.2% 6,577 6,864
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015
12-2012 12-2013 12-2014 12-2015