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2006 Long Range Transportation Plan

Planning and Programming Committee – October 19, 2005

Finance and Budget Committee – October 19, 2005Executive Management and Audit Committee – October 20, 2005

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Plan Development

•Minor update to 2001 Long Range Plan– Extend planning horizon to 2030 and update

demographics

– Update financial forecast

– Update Plan projects and content

•Basis for SCAG 2007 Regional Transportation Plan

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Plan Elements

Countywide Picture• Transportation Challenge

• Financial Resources

Subregional Picture• Needs by Subregion

Plan Recommendations• Public Transit

• Highways

• Arterials

• System Management

• Freight Movement

• Demand Management

• Bicycle and Pedestrian

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Plan Strategy

• Plan builds on existing Long Range Plan

• Update costs of existing plan– Constrained Plan (funded)

– Strategic Plan (unfunded)

• If additional funds available, opportunity to identify new projects

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2001 Highway Plan

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2001 Transit Plan

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Potential to Build on Existing Plan

• Assumes all existing Board commitments as first priority

• Plan could add new projects– To Constrained Plan

(if funds available)– To Strategic Plan to

identify additional priority projects (unfunded)

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Update of Financial Picture

• Plan will maintain Board priorities of 2001 Long Range Plan

• Update financial model for recent changes to revenue and project costs

– SAFETEA-LU

– State funding

– Highway and transit costs

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Key Financial Issues

• Possible transit operating, capital and maintenance shortfall through 2030 – Staff working on recommended solutions

• 2001 Long Range Plan project cost increases– Project cost increases for highway projects

almost $2 Billion through 2030– Transit guideway cost increases from $1.1 to

$1.9 Billion as project scopes have been refined through 2030

Comparison of Plan Commitments -Highway Projects from Constrained 2001 LRTP

Project Description Project Status2001 LRTP

(millions)

Current Cost Estimates1

(millions)Difference

(millions)

SR-14 Carpool Lanes: I-5 to Pearblossom Completed – – –

I-605 Carpool Lanes: Orange County Line to South St Completed – – –

I-210 Gap Closure Completed – – –

Completed

Partially Completed2

Under Construction

Under Construction

Under Construction

Partially Completed3

Partial Design /Partial

Construction

Under Construction

Design

Under Construction

I-405 / US-101 Connector Widening $3.5 $10.3 $6.8

I-10 Carpool Lanes: Baldwin Ave to SB Co Line $441.7 $781.3 $339.6

I-405 Carpool Lanes: I-105 to I-10 $152.7 $205.9 $53.2

SR-57/SR-60 Carpool Lanes Direct Connectors $72.5 $70.5 ($2.0)

US-101 Freeway and Ramp Realignment at Center St. $15.8 $31.8 $25.1

I-405 (SB) Carpool Lanes: US-101 to I-10 $96.7 $71.4 ($25.3)

I-5 Carpool Lanes: SR-134 to SR-14 w/ Empire $425.5 $867.6 $442.1

I-405/US-101 Connector Gap Closure $33.9 $45.7 $11.8

SR-60 Carpool Lanes: I-605 to Brea Canyon Rd $67.0 $116.7 $49.7

I-405 (NB) Carpool Lanes: Greenleaf to Burbank $3.6 $6.4 $2.8

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Comparison of Plan Commitments -Highway Projects from Constrained 2001 LRTP

Project Description Project Status2001 LRTP

(millions)Current Cost Estimates1

(millions)

Difference(millions)

I-5 Carmenita Road Interchange Improvement Design $127.7 $294.6 $166.9

I-710 Freeway Improvement: PCH to Downtown Long Bch Design n/a $6.6 $6.6

I-5 Carpool & Mixed Flow Lanes: I-605 to OC Line;

and I-5 Valley View Interchange

Environmental Clearance

$577.8 $1167.9 $590.1

SR-14 Carpool Lanes: Pearblossom to Ave L Under Construction

$105.5 $100.0 ($5.5)

$67.8

$8.0

($467.0)

$209.4

($0.5)

$126.5

$2.7

$363.5

$1,963.2

I-5/SR-14 Carpool Lanes Direct Connector Design $58.8 $126.6

SR-90 Freeway Extension – $12.1 $20.1

I-405 (NB) Carpool Lanes: I-10 to US-101 Environmental Clearance

$1,497.0 $1,030.0

SR-71: Carpool Lanes and Upgrade: I-10 to Rio Rancho Rd Planning $118.1 $327.5

I-5/I-405 (Partial connector south to north) Planning $143.5 $270.0

I-5/SR-126 Interchange (Magic Mtn Parkway) Planning $13.3 $16.04

Soundwalls (Phase I)Planning/Partial

Design$597.0

$960.5

SR-57/SR-60 (Mixed Flow Interchange Improvement) Planning $355.5 $355.0

Total $4,919.2 $6,882.4

1 Cost estimates are in escalated dollars.2 HOV Lanes in operation from Baldwin Ave to I-605 and SR-57 to SB County Line; segment I-605 to Puente in design.3 Southbound HOV Lane is in operation from US-101 to Waterford; segment from Waterford to I-10 is under construction.4 Cost estimate includes Phase II only and does not include Phases I & III. 11

Comparison of Plan Commitments -Transit Guideway Projects From Constrained 2001 Long Range Plan

Project Description2001 Long Range Plan

(millions)

Current Cost Estimates1

(millions)

Difference(millions)

Eastside Light Rail: Union Station to Pomona/Atlantic $761.6 $898.8 $137.2

Mid-Cities Transit Corridors-Wilshire and Exposition2

Exposition Light Rail: 7th/Metro to Culver City-Phase I Exposition Light Rail: Culver City to Santa Monica-Phase II

Wilshire Rapidway: Western to Santa Monica

$757.5 (Total)

Included

In

Above

$1,456.0 (Total)

$640.0

$711.0

$105.0

$698.5

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Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension: Sierra Madre Villa to Azusa/Citrus Station-PE Only

— $10.03 $10.0

Metro Orange Line Rapidway $300.3 $330.0 $29.7

Crenshaw Corridor Transitway

Technology for Crenshaw Corridor to be determined. Funds are reserved to accommodate either BRT or light rail technology until Board actionon preferred alternative

$346.1 $550.0 - $1,352.0 $203.9-$1,005.9

Total $2,165.5$3,244.8 -

$4,046.8$1,079.3-$1,881.3

1 Current Estimated Cost is in escalated dollars2 2001 Long Range Plan assumed BRT technology for Exposition transit corridor from Crenshaw Bl to Santa Monica3 SRTP cost estimate for preliminary engineering only

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Key Financial Assumptions – Other Programs

• Call for Projects funding is continued through life of plan at 2001 Plan level of funding – A portion could be used to match congestion mitigation fees

• Continues Metrolink funding at constant annual amount –2025 through 2030

• Phase I Soundwall program will be funded• Access Services is funded at the current levels, adjusted for

Consumer Price Index (may need to increase funding to serve growing population with access needs and/or develop cost containment strategies)

• Very preliminary estimate for new projects approximately $6 Billion– Some funds are available after 2010, but most new funding becomes

available after 2020

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Key Plan Assumptions - Transit

• New Starts and/or Small Smarts Project Phasing/Money Assignment– Expo Phase II – 2009-2014– Crenshaw Corridor – 2015-2019

• Bus seat capacity increases through continued procurement of 45- & 60-foot buses

• Bus fleet size – Consistent with current OMB Ten Year Forecast through 2015

2,294 buses in 2015 (or 2,700 40’ equivalent buses)– Extends trend from OMB Ten Year Forecast, 2015 to 2030

2,298 buses in 2030 (or 2,861 40’ equivalent buses)

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Next StepsJanuary Board Meeting

• Performance Analysis from Transportation Demand Model

• Update of financial model

• Preliminary Long Range Plan recommendations

March Board Meeting• Release draft Long Range Plan for public review

June Board Meeting• Brief Board on public comment• Action on final Long Range Plan

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LRTP.pdfLRTP.pdf2006 Long Range Transportation PlanPlan DevelopmentPlan ElementsPlan Strategy2001 Highway Plan2001 Transit PlanPotential to Build on Existing PlanUpdate of Financial PictureKey Financial IssuesComparison of Plan Commitments - Highway Projects from Constrained 2001 LRTPComparison of Plan Commitments - Highway Projects from Constrained 2001 LRTPComparison of Plan Commitments - Transit Guideway Projects From Constrained 2001 Long Range PlanKey Financial Assumptions – Other ProgramsKey Plan Assumptions - TransitNext Steps