December 16 – December 31

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CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations)………………………………………....3

Americas………………………………………………………………………..6

Arms Control and Disarmament…………………………………………...10

China and East Asia…………………………………………………………14

Europe…………………………………………………………………….........16

Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………….20

South Asia……………………………………………………………………..26

United Nations…………………………………………………………………..31

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Area Briefs: 16-31 December 2016

General Observations

Pakistan

Pakistan was targeted once again, at the end of December, by the US on its missile

development when the US government sanctioned seven Pakistani entities allegedly

linked with the country’s missile programme. No details were given as to what activities

of these companies had led to the sanctions. The US has been targeting Pakistan’s nuclear

and missile programmes repeatedly while aiding India’s development in both the nuclear

and missile fields – including technology transfers relating to the latter field.

Meanwhile, members of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) met informally in Vienna

at the close of the year to discuss possible membership of non-NPT states. Under

discussion was a proposal by former NSG Chairman Rafael Mariano Grossi, which

clearly sought to tilt the balance in India’s favour for NSG membership while leaving

Pakistan out. Pakistan had assumed the issue had been temporarily resolved after the last

NSG Summit earlier this year but it had failed to foresee this development, thereby

neglecting a proactive diplomatic offensive. The Pakistan Foreign Office rejected the

Grossi proposal but there are fears that a number of countries, which had earlier agreed

with China on a criteria-based approach, would now go along with the US position on

admitting India while leaving out Pakistan. The Vienna meeting had been initiated by the

present NSG Chairman, Song Young-wan, whose term would end in June 2017. He

wanted to see the membership issue move towards resolution before he left his post.

Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (NIW) of 23 December 2016 reported that while so far a

number of countries led by China are still insistent on a criteria-based approach but the

US continues to push for Indian membership before a decision on this criteria-based

approach. Song wants to move ahead on this issue and he may force some countries’

hands on it – including the US, France and the UK, who want to admit India without any

agreement on criteria. According to NIW, now some other countries like Japan, Turkey,

Italy, Mexico, Norway and Brazil, have signaled support for the US position with some

conditionalities. The Grossi paper is part of this scheme of things.

Once again the Pakistan government gave out that it had finally prepared a dossier on

Indian’s subversive activities in Pakistan including the activities of arrested RAW agent

Jhadav. Apparently this dossier would be handed over to the new UN SG when he takes

over in January 2017. The dossier issue seems to continue being controversial as earlier it

had been given out that the government had handed over such a dossier to the UNSG

during the GA session in autumn 2016.

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Pakistan, China and Russia held talk on Afghanistan and the deteriorating security

situation there including the presence of Daesh. It was decided that Afghanistan would

also be invited to join the next round of talks.

Indian aggression along the Line of Control (LoC) continued with civilians again being

the victims of Indian shelling – this time schoolchildren in Kotli, Azad Kashmi, on 16

December.

Domestically, the return of PPP co-Chairman and former President Asif Zardari to

Pakistan led to all manner of conjectures about how that would impact the opposition’s

role on the Panama scandal. It became evident that the PPP street protest would take a

back seat while the two co Chairmen of the PPP contested bye-elections for the National

Assembly after getting two seats vacated from Sindh.

International

On New Year’s Eve, Turkey suffered another terrorist attack when a gunman opened fire

in a nightclub in Istanbul killing at least 36 people including 16 foreigners. Turkey has

been suffering repeated terrorist attacks from Daesh and Kurdish militants.

Also on 31 December, the UN Security Council unanimously approved a resolution

supporting a Russian-Turkish peace initiative for Syria premised on a ceasefire and

eventual talks amongst the various parties. Although Turkey and Russia support opposing

sides in the Syrian conflict, the joint initiative may finally bring some movement towards

ending the war in Syria.

Continuing its claims that the Russian government had tried to influence the US elections

through cyber hacking, on 29 December the Obama Administration announced sweeping

sanctions against Russia including the expulsion of 35 suspected Russian spies. The

Russians did not respond in kind and this was appreciated by President-elect Donald

Trump.

The Obama Administration also chose to abstain from using its veto in the UN SC, which

allowed a resolution against Israeli settlements to be passed leading Israel to summon

envoys of some of its allies who had voted for the resolution. Trump criticized this move

by the Obama Administration and announced the nomination of David Friedman as US

ambassador to Israel. Friedman is a lawyer who is supportive of Israeli settlements.

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Trump also called for the US to “greatly strengthen and expand” its nuclear capabilities.

So one should expect little in the way of nuclear weapons’ reduction under the new

President.

A year-end Report released by Congressional Research Services (CRS) on Conventional

Arms Transfers to Developing Nations 2008-2015, India has emerged as the second

largest arms buyer among developing nations after Saudi Arabia.

2017 should see more controversy over the Iran nuclear deal after President Obama

neither signed nor vetoed a Congressional Bill renewing sanctions against Iran for

another 10 years. Thus he allowed the bill to be adopted into law without his signature.

Despite opposition within Egypt, and a court ruling that the transfer was unconstitutional,

on 30 December, Egypt’s Cabinet approved the transfer of two Red Sea islands to Saudi

Arabia. The agreement between Egypt and Saudi Arabia had been signed in April 2016

and was tied with a Saudi aid package to Egypt.

--- Dr Shireen M Mazari

Director General

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AMERICAS

Domestic

On December 29, US President-elect Donald Trump said telecommunications group Sprint

Corp and a US satellite company OneWeb would bring 8,000 jobs to the country.

The companies said the positions were part of a previously disclosed pledge by Japan’s SoftBank

Group Corp. SoftBank holds stakes in both companies and its chief, billionaire businessman

Masayoshi Son, earlier said he would invest $50 billion in the United States and create 50,000

jobs. In January 2016 Sprint had cut 2,500 jobs as part of its plan to reduce $2.5 billion in costs.

It said it would create 5,000 jobs in areas including sales and customer care by the end of fiscal

year ending in March 2018. Sprint spokesman Dave Tovar said the jobs were part of the pledge

made by Son but would be funded by Sprint.

On December 29, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the FBI released

an analysis of alleged Russian government-sponsored hacking groups being blamed for

breaching several different parts of the Democratic Party during the 2016 elections.

The 13-page document was meant for information technology professionals. Criticising the

Report, security experts said it lacked depth and came too late. “The activity by (Russian

intelligence services) is part of an ongoing campaign of cyber-enabled operations directed at the

US government and its citizens.”

On December 27, a US appeals court reversed a lower court ruling asserting that the State

Department and National Archives should have done more to recover Hilary Clinton’s

emails.

The ruling from Judge Stephen Williams, of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia

Circuit, revived one of a number of legal challenges involving Clinton’s handling of government

emails when she was secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. Clinton used a private email server

housed at her New York home to handle State Department emails. She handed over 55,000 pages

of emails to US officials probing that system, but did not release about 30,000 she said were

personal and not work related. The email case emerged as a major controversy during the

November 8, 2016 presidential election. Trump who had repeatedly said during the campaign that

if elected he would prosecute Clinton, said he had no interest in pursuing investigations into

Clinton’s email use.

On December 23, US federal authorities cautioned local law enforcement to be aware that

supporters of Islamic State have been calling for their sympathizers to attack holiday

gatherings in the United States, including churches.

The warning said there were no known specific, credible threats. The notice from the FBI and

Department of Homeland Security was issued after a publicly available list of US churches was

published on pro-Islamic State websites.

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On December 19, elector college members in all 50 states and the District of Columbia

formally elected Donald Trump as president of the United States.

Trump’s victory was sealed despite demonstrations against him across the country. The Congress

will formally endorse the result in a special session on January 6, 2017. Anti-Trump activists had

urged electors to back efforts led by celebrities and academics to cast their ballots at variance

with election results to keep Trump from reaching the necessary 270 Electoral College votes, but

these efforts all came to practically nothing. With counts still ongoing in California and Texas, the

number of Electoral College members who attempted to cast a protest vote was likely to reach at

least nine.

International

On December 30, US President-elect Donald Trump praised Russian President Vladimir

Putin for refraining from retaliation in a dispute over spying and cyber attacks.

The remarks are yet another sign that Trump plans to restore Washington’s deteriorating relations

with Moscow. Trump was responding to remarks made by Russian President Vladimir Putin where

said he would not get even with the US for expelling 35 suspected Russian spies at least until

Trump takes office on January 20, 2017. Trump wrote on Twitter, “Great move on delay (by V.

Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!”

On December 29, the Obama Administration announced sweeping sanctions against Russia

including the expulsion of 35 suspected Russian spies.

According to US Intelligence agencies the GRU ordered the attacks on the Democratic National

Committee and other political organisations, enabling the publication of the emails it retrieved in

order to benefit Donald Trump’s campaign. The Administration consequently sanctioned nine

entities and individuals including the GRU and the FSB, two Russian intelligence services; four

individual officers of the GRU; and three companies that provided material support to the GRU’s

cyber operations. Additionally the Secretary of the Treasury is designating two Russian individuals

for using cyber-enabled means to cause misappropriation of funds and personal identifying

information. The US also closed two Russian compounds in the country. Meanwhile, President

elect Donald Trump, who has previously dismissed reports of Russian interference in the election,

said in a statement, “It’s time for our country to move on to bigger and better things.”

On January 16, FBI Director James B. Comey and Director of National Intelligence James

R. Clapper Jr. agreed with a CIA assessment that Russia had intervened in the 2016 election

to help Donald Trump win the election, as President Obama issued a public warning to

Moscow that it could face retaliation.

Intelligence agencies identified individuals with connections to the Russian government who

provided WikiLeaks with thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee

and others, including Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

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On December 22, President elect Donald Trump called for the US to “greatly strengthen

and expand” its nuclear capabilities.

Trump said the US must take such action “until such time as the world comes to its senses

regarding nukes.” His spokesman later said that he was referring to the need to prevent nuclear

proliferation. Trump’s statement came after President Vladimir Putin said Russia needed to

bolster its military nuclear potential. According to the Arms Control Association, the US has 7,100

nuclear weapons and Russia has 7,300.

On December 22, President-elect Donald Trump further dampened US relations with

China, when he used Twitter to accuse China of an “unpresidented [sic] act” in its seizing

of an unmanned American submarine.

His message increased fears of increased US-China tensions under his presidency. The relations

have deteriorated further due to Trump’s rhetoric on trade and policy towards Taiwan. Trump

suggested the US tell China it no longer wants its property returned.

On December 20, President Barack Obama banned new oil and gas drilling in federal

waters in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.

The announcement was seen as an effort to leave his stamp on the environment before Donald

Trump takes office in January 2017. Obama used a 1950s law, called the Outer Continental Shelf

Act that allows presidents to limit areas from mineral leasing and drilling. Environmental groups

said that meant Trump’s incoming administration would have to go to court if it sought to reverse

the move. The ban affects 115 million acres (46.5 million hectares) of federal waters off Alaska in

the Chukchi Sea and most of the Beaufort Sea and 3.8 million acres (1.5 million hectares) in the

Atlantic from New England to Chesapeake Bay. Trump has said he would expand offshore oil and

gas drilling. A recent memo from his energy transition team said his policy could increase

production in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, as well as the mid- and south Atlantic.

Latin America

On December 29, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro once again extended the deadline

to withdraw from circulation the country’s most common currency note.

The deadline had originally been set for January 2, 2017 but will now be on January 20, 2017.

Maduro said he did not want Venezuelans to worry about exchanging the currency near the New

Year festivities. Venezuelans had been initially given 72 hours in mid-December to swap their 100

bolivar notes, sparking chaos. The borders with Colombia and Brazil were also closed for eight

days as part of a coordinated action against what Maduro called “smuggling mafias ” who sell

products subsidised by Venezuela’s socialist government, including petrol and medicines, at high

profit margins.

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On December 18, Venezuela’s President Maduro delayed plans to withdraw the 100

Bolivar note.

The sudden change in policy was made after people spent days queuing to swap their notes for

new larger bills that did not arrive in time. The 100-bolivar banknote will now be withdrawn in

early January 2017.

On December 28, the Colombian Congress approved a law offering amnesty to some of

those accused of minor crimes in the country’s decades-long civil war.

President Juan Manuel Santos hailed the ruling as “the first step towards the consolidation of

peace” with the left-wing FARC guerrilla group. The amnesty is part of a revised deal agreed

after the original pact with the FARC was rejected in a popular vote. The conflict has killed more

than 260,000 people and displaced millions.

---Amina Afzal

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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

On December 31, the US government sanctioned seven Pakistani entities allegedly

associated with the country’s missile programme.

The US Department of Commerce stated that the entities added to the Export Administration

Regulations (EAR) list are determined by the US government to be acting contrary to the

national security or foreign policy interests of the US. The sanctioned entities are identified as

Ahad International, Air Weapons Complex, Engineering Solutions Pvt. Ltd., Maritime

Technology Complex National Engineering and Scientific Commission, New Auto Engineering

and Universal Tooling Services. However, the US government did not give any details about the

activities of the Pakistani entities that had resulted in the sanctions.

On December 29, Pakistan’s Foreign Office rejected the draft proposal for evaluation of

the candidature of non-NPT states for Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) membership as

discriminatory and harmful for the global non-proliferation regime.

According to Bloomberg on December 20, members of the NSG met in Vienna to discuss

the draft proposal comprising nine general commitments that India and other countries

outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would need to make in order to receive the

Cartel’s membership.

The draft proposal, prepared by Rafael Mariano Grossi, a former chairman of the NSG, explains

how a non-NPT state, like India and Pakistan, could join the group. During the meeting Grossi

was acting on behalf of the current NSG chairman, Song Young-wan of South Korea. The

document is considered to be of semi-official status. The draft proposal requires a non-NPT state

to declare that it has brought into force a clear and strict separation of current and future

civilian nuclear facilities from non-civilian nuclear facilities and is willing to apply this principle

to future facilities as well. In order to prevent India from blocking Pakistan from joining the

NPT, Grossi also proposed that “one non-NPT member state should reach an understanding not

to block consensus on membership for another non-NPT member state”. However, Daryl

Kimball, executive director at the Arms Control Association, a non-partisan policy group based

in Washington, believes that the proposal sets an extremely low bar on NSG membership and

does not require India to take any additional non-proliferation commitments. He warned that the

document would require “Pakistan to meet the same criteria for membership as India, and to

engage in civil nuclear trade with NSG states, the country would also have to win a separate

NSG exemption from the full-scope safeguards requirement. Pakistan’s Foreign Office

spokesman, Nafees Zakaria, termed the proposal discriminatory and said that it would

contribute nothing in terms of furthering the non-proliferation objectives of the NSG. He said

“Pakistan emphasises the imperative for a non-discriminatory criteria-based approach for the

NSG membership of non-NPT states in a non-discriminatory manner.”

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According to Dawn on December 29, a report released by Congressional Research

Services (CRS), titled ‘Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations 2008-2015,’

has placed India as the second largest arms buyer among developing nations after Saudi

Arabia.

The report noted that Saudi Arabia was a leading arms purchaser from developing world

between 2008-2015 with a spending of $93.5 billion. During the same period, India purchased

defence equipment worth $34 billion. The report also discussed various Indian efforts aimed at

diversifying its weapons supplier base. While being a principal Russian arms customer, India

diversified its arms supplier base by purchasing military equipment from Israel, France and the

US. India procured 57 Hawk jet trainers for $1 billion from the UK and 12 AW101 helicopters

from Italy in 2010. India and France signed an agreement according to which France upgraded

51 of India’s Mirage-2000 combat fighters in 2011. During the same year the US also agreed to

sell India 10 C-17 Globemaster III aircraft for $4.1 billion. In 2015, Russia secured a contract

with India to sell India 200 Ka-226T helicopters. India also signed a formal agreement with

France to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets from the country’s Dassault Aviation manufacturer for $8.8

billion. However, the Indian Air Force chief Arup Raha stated during a media briefing on

December 28, 2016, that India needed 200 Rafale combat fighters instead of 36 to enhance its

military edge.

On December 26, India successfully test-fired its Agni-V intercontinental surface-to-

surface nuclear capable ballistic missile (ICBM) from Wheeler Island off Odisha, paving

the way for its eventual induction into service.

With a strike range of 5000 kilometres, Agni-V was test-fired from its canister on a launcher

truck. The missile successfully achieved its test parameters. This was the fourth and final test of

the missile. The missile’s earlier tests were conducted in 2012, 2013 and 2015 respectively.

India’s Strategic Force Command (SFC) will conduct at least two user-trials before Agni-V is

produced in adequate numbers for induction. After the induction of the missile into service, India

would join the exclusive club of countries with ICBMs, including the US, France, China, Russia

and the UK. Apart from short-range Prithvi and Dhanush missiles, the SFC has inducted Agni-I,

Agni-II and Agni-III missiles meant for deterring Pakistan. The Agni-IV and Agni-V missiles are

designed for deterring China.

On December 23, China successfully tested the latest version of its fifth-generation

stealth fighter aircraft J-31, now renamed as FC-31 Gyrfalcon.

China’s fifth-generation twin-engine stealth aircraft is a counter to the US F-35, the world’s

most technically advanced fighter aircraft. The new FC-31 has improved stealth capabilities,

electronic equipment and a larger payload capacity than its previous version. The aircraft is

manufactured by the Shenyang Aircraft Corp, a subsidiary of the Aviation Industry Corp of

China (AVIC). With the completion of the FC-31 aircraft, it would become China’s second

stealth aircraft after the country’s J-20 stealth fighter jets.

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According to The Indian Express on December 22, the Indian police seized around 9 kg

of depleted uranium (DU) in Thane, an Indian city in the state of Maharashtra, in early

December 2016.

The police sources indicated that the consignment, worth Rs. 27 crore, could have been brought

to India from a Gulf country. DU, unlike a pure form of uranium, is slightly radioactive. Joint

Commissioner of Police, Ashutosh Dumbhare stated that he has received a report from the

Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) that the material is depleted uranium with around

0.3% content of the fissile isotope U-235. The BARC report also stated that the DU sample did

not belong to India. The detention of the smugglers, namely Saifullah Khan and Kishore

Prajapati, took place in early December 2016. The police are investigating how Khan and

Prajapati got access to the uranium.

On December 21, the fourth test of India’s Nirbhay land attack cruise missile (LACM),

capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads to a strike range of 1000

kilometres, failed.

After the launch from the Integrated Test Range at the Balasore off the Odisha coast, the missile

deviated from its flight-path along the coast in the Bay of Bengal. Since March 2013, all four

tests of the subsonic missile have failed to achieve the desired results. The missile’s first test,

conducted in March 2013, had completely failed to achieve the required test parameters. Its

second test was considered partially successful in October 2014. However, its third test in

October 2015 failed again. Though India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation

(DRDO) has remained successful in developing ballistic missiles like Agni series which have

strike ranges between 700 and 5000 kilometres, it has remained relatively unsuccessful in the

field of cruise missiles. India also possesses the supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles developed

jointly with Russia. However, their ranges are limited to 290 kilometres and they can only carry

conventional warheads as of now. The development of Nirbhay cruise missiles are meant to fulfil

the demand of Indian armed forces for nuclear-tipped land-attack cruise missiles.

On December 20, Pakistan Navy’s (PN) front-line combat unit demonstrated live missile

firing in the Arabian Sea.

The demonstration included a surface-to-surface anti-ship missile fired from a sword-class

frigate, the PNS Aslat. According to a statement issued by the PN, the missile destroyed its

intended target successfully with pinpoint accuracy. Live weapon firing exercises are considered

to be the pinnacle of operational preparedness and are a symbol of the resolve for defence.

While expressing satisfaction on the operational readiness of the fleet, Chief of the Naval Staff

Admiral Muhammad Zakaullah said that live missile firing reaffirmed the credibility of

deterrence and also reassured PN’s commitment to safeguard maritime frontiers against all

threats.

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On December 19, Arab coalition spokesman, Ahmed Asiri, stated that the use of cluster

munitions has now been stopped in Yemen and clarified that its use was only legitimate

against military targets to prevent civilian casualties in Saudi Arabia.

Asiri’s statement came in response to the Amnesty International’s claim that BL-755 cluster

munitions were used between December 2015 and January 2016 in the area of Al-Khadra in

Yemen. Asiri said that International law does not ban the use of cluster munitions. He further

explained that some states refrain from using cluster munitions and have become party to the

2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions. Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners are not parties to

the Convention; therefore, they are not in violation of their obligations under international law.

According to Asiri, the Coalition has conducted an inquiry into the use of cluster munitions in

Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

According to Dawn on December 16, US President Barrack Obama declined to sign the

renewal of sanctions against Iran. However, he allowed the bill to be adopted into law

without his signature.

On December 1, 2016, the US Senate voted overwhelmingly to extend the Iran Sanctions Act

(ISA) for 10 years in order to ensure Iran does not violate the nuclear agreement. As part of the

procedure the bill was moved to the White House for Obama’s final approval. Obama chose to

not sign the bill instead of signing or vetoing it. White House Press Secretary, Josh Earnest,

stated that the extension of the ISA is becoming law without the President’s signature. He added,

“This Administration has made clear that an extension of the Iran Sanctions Act, while

unnecessary, is entirely consistent with our commitments in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of

Action (JCPOA).” Sanctions targeting Iran’s energy, banking and military sectors were first

adopted in 1996 and have been extended and added to since then.

--- Moiz Khan

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CHINA & EAST ASIA

China

On December 29, at least four attackers detonated an explosive at China’s Communist

Party office in Xinjiang killing one person.

All four attackers were shot dead by Chinese security forces. Xinjiang, predominantly Muslim

Uighur, has suffered years of unrest. The Chinese authorities have long accused Uighur

separatists for violence in its autonomous Xinjiang province. The situation in the region saw

considerable improvement in 2016 with no major reported attacks or other violent incidents.

According to Dawn on December 16, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Geng

Shuang said that the deployment of weapons in the South China Sea had ‘nothing to do

with militarisation’, calling the construction of defensive facilities ‘normal’.

The remarks follow a US think tank report citing new satellite imagery that China has installed

weapons, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, on all seven of the artificial islands it

has built in the busy waterway. The US also criticised what it calls China’s militarisation of its

maritime outposts, stressing the need for freedom of navigation and by conducting air and naval

patrols near them. China maintains that construction on the islands is for civilian use.

According to Aljazeera on December 18, China’s Defence Ministry said that it has been

in talks with the US about returning an underwater drone taken by a Chinese naval vessel

in the South China Sea, but the US was not helping by “hyping up” the issue.

The Chinese Defence Ministry also noted that the US “has been frequently deploying ships and

aircraft to conduct close-in surveillance and military surveys in waters facing China.” On

December 15, 2016, a Chinese Navy warship had seized an underwater drone deployed by an

American vessel in the South China Sea, causing a formal diplomatic protest from the US and a

demand for its return.

Japan

On December 27, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Barack Obama

visited Pearl Harbour in Hawaii to pay tribute to the victims of Japan’s 1941 bombing,

which killed more than 2,400 Americans.

Although Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did not apologise, he conceded that Japan “must never

repeat the horrors of war again.” PM Abe termed the relationship between Tokyo and

Washington, “an alliance of hope.” Meanwhile, President Obama said that Abe’s visit was a

“historic gesture” adding that “the bitterest of enemies can become the strongest of allies.” The

visit came seven months after President Obama became the first US President to visit the

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Japanese city of Hiroshima, where the US dropped the first atomic bomb at the end of World

War II.

Philippines

On December 29, at least 39 people were injured in two separate bomb attacks in the

Philippines.

Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack. The blasts took place four days after a grenade

explosion wounded 16 people outside a Catholic church on Christmas Eve in the country’s

restive island of Mindanao where more than 80% of the population is Roman Catholic.

Mindanao’s Muslim minority has been engaged in armed rebellion for decades. However, the

main Muslim guerrilla group in the area has now signed a ceasefire with the government.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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EUROPE

On December 31 several European cities tightened security ahead of New Year’s Eve

celebrations amid continuing terrorism fears. Authorities are particularly concerned about

a repeat of the December 19 truck attack in Germany and the one in France earlier in 2016.

“Every measure is being taken to prevent a possible attack,” said police spokesman Thomas

Neuendorf in Berlin. Concrete blocks and armoured cars are being used to prevent all but carefully

controlled pedestrian access to Pariser Platz, the square in front of Brandenburg Gate the

traditional site for New Year’s Eve celebrations.

On December 29, German police released a 40-year-old Tunisian man who had been a

suspected accomplice of the Berlin Christmas market assailant.

On December 21, 2016, German police offered a reward of 100,000 euros, for information

leading to the arrest of the new suspect of the Berlin attack, who they identified as Tunisian

national Anis Amri.

A lorry smashed into a crowded Christmas market in central Berlin on December 19, killing

12 people and injuring 49, leaving 18 in a critical condition.

Twelve people died and more than 50 were injured in the German capital when a hijacked truck

was driven into a Christmas Market. The suspected perpetrator, Anis Amri, a Tunisian national,

was shot dead by Italian police on December 23, 2016, in Milan following a Europe-wide

manhunt. Amri had alleged links to known Islamists.

According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel on December 31, “Islamist terrorism” is

the biggest challenge facing Germany.

Referring to the deadly truck attack in Berlin by a Tunisian asylum seeker, she said it was

“sickening” when people who had sought protection carried out acts of terror.

She said 2016 had been a year of “severe tests.” However she also said she was confident

Germany could overcome them. “As we go about our lives and our work, we are saying to the

terrorists, “You are hate-filled murderers, but you do not determine how we live and want to live.

We are free, considerate and open,” Merkel said.

According to BBC on December 28, some 55,000 migrants left Germany voluntarily in

2016 – more than twice the number deported.

Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) daily obtained the data for January-November 2016 from

the Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF). Most of the migrants went back to the Western

Balkans. In 2015, 890,000 asylum seekers reached Germany. During 2016, Germany deported

25,000 migrants. Those arriving from the Western Balkans generally have no right to stay in

Germany. The BAMF says increasing numbers of asylum seekers are also returning voluntarily to

Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. The German government has pledged to step up the rate of migrant

returns, amid widespread criticism of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s liberal immigration policy.

17

International law prohibits “push-backs” to areas where migrants are at risk from war or

persecution. Each asylum claim has to be assessed individually and there can be no discrimination

against particular groups.

On December 30, Russia pledged “adequate reprisals” over US sanctions and accused

Washington of trying to destroy ties by making “unfounded” allegations of interference in

the US election.

The US wants to “definitively destroy US-Russia relations which have already reached a low,”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. He was responding to the tough sanctions that

Washington had announced including those on Russia’s top intelligence agencies, the expulsion

of 35 diplomats and a decision to shut down two Russian compounds in the US.

On December 29, Theresa May distanced the UK from Washington over John Kerry’s

condemnation of Israel, in comments that appear to be designed to foster better relations

with the incoming Trump administration.

May’s spokesman said she thought it was inappropriate to make such strongly worded attacks on

the makeup of a government or to focus solely on the issue of Israeli settlements. Earlier on

December 28, 2016 John Kerry had criticised Benjamin Netanyahu’s government as being the

“most rightwing coalition in Israeli history.” He warned that the rapid expansion of settlements

in the occupied territories means “the status quo is leading toward one state and perpetual

occupation”.

On December 29, investigators in Russia said they could not rule out the possibility that an attack

had downed the jet over the Black Sea.

An external “mechanical impact” could have caused the December 25, 2016 disaster, but he

added that it was just one of many theories, including technical failure and human error. The

Russian Defence Ministry airliner was bound for Syria.

On December 28, campaigners for a “hard” Brexit asked business groups across Europe to

put pressure on their governments for a free trade agreement with Britain.

“Leave Means Leave” has written to the chambers of commerce in all the other 27 EU states,

asking them to call for a “sensible agreement regarding the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU.”

The letter warns that trade barriers would have a “detrimental effect.” It also calls for

uninterrupted trade as well as near-zero tariffs.

The group wants to ensure Brexit means the UK is no longer a member of the EU’s single market.

On December 27, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis rejected the prime ministerial

candidate nominated by the left-of-centre Social Democrats (PSD).

Sevil Shhaideh would have been Romania’s first female and Muslim prime minister. President

Iohannis gave no reasons for his decision. Shhaideh was criticised for lacking political experience.

Analysts say her Syrian husband’s background may also have been a factor. PSD leader Liviu

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Dragnea said there was no constitutional reason for refusing Shhaideh, as he accused Iohannis of

wanting “to start a political crisis.” The PSD won the parliamentary election earlier in December

and hopes to form a coalition.

On December 25, Pope Francis called for an end to the fighting in Syria in his Christmas

address at the Vatican.

He also urged Palestinians and Israelis to abandon hate and revenge. On Syria, he said the

international community must “actively seek a negotiated solution” to the five-year war. He said

Israelis and Palestinians must come together to “write a new page of history”.

On December 23, 100 people were feared dead after two boats capsized off the Italian coast

increasing the estimated death toll among migrants in the Mediterranean during 2016 to at

least 5,000.

Deaths linked to Mediterranean crossings by migrants trying to reach Europe increased

considerably in 2016. In 2015, 3,771 deaths were recorded as more than a million people made

the journey, mostly from Turkey to Greece. In 2016, some 360,000 people crossed, mostly between

Libya and Italy.

The EU agreed to stricter gun rules on December 20 but stopped short of a proposal for a

complete ban on the most lethal semi-automatic weapons such as the Kalashnikov.

Proposed in 2015 but disputed by the bloc’s 28 nations, the rules restrict access to some high-

calibre weapons and make it easier to track guns to avoid them being sold on the black market.

The measure is part of an overall tightening of EU rules governing the purchase and sale of such

weapons after gunmen shot dead 12 people in the offices of the French satirical magazine Charlie

Hebdo in January 2015. Militants killed 130 people in attacks in Paris in November 2015.

However the European Commission’s plan to prohibit citizens from owning weapons failed to

obtain enough support from member states amid opposition from Europe’s gun lobby.

On December 20, a French court found International Monetary Fund chief Christine

Lagarde guilty of negligence but did not hand down any punishment.

As French finance minister in 2008, Lagarde approved an award of €404m to businessman

Bernard Tapie for the disputed sale of a firm. Meanwhile the IMF Board said it retained “full

confidence” in her leadership. The French government also confirmed its confidence in Ms

Lagarde, who was reappointed to a five-year term at the IMF in February 2016.

On December 20, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon argued it would be

“democratically justifiable” for the whole of the UK to remain in the European single

market after Brexit.

She also said it would be possible for Scotland to remain in the free trade bloc even if the rest of

the UK left. Sturgeon was speaking as she unveiled proposals for Scotland’s future relations with

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Europe after Brexit. The prime minister has pledged to look “very seriously” at the proposals.

However the UK government has also warned that a special deal for Scotland is unrealistic.

On December 19 three people were injured when a man stormed into a Zurich mosque and

opened fire on people at prayer.

Two of the three men were seriously injured in the attack near the city’s main train station. The

suspect had fled the mosque and was believed to have left the building. Two-thirds of Switzerland’s

8.3 million residents identify as Christian, while its Muslim population has risen to 5%,

particularly with the arrival of immigrants from the former Yugoslavia. In 2009 a nationwide vote

backed a constitutional ban on minarets.

On December 18, demonstrators in the Polish capital Warsaw renewed their protest against

government plans to restrict journalists’ access to parliament.

Crowds gathered outside the presidential palace and then marched to parliament. Meanwhile

opposition MPs also continued their sit-in that began on December 17, 2016. Polish Prime

Minister Beata Szydlo, called the MPs’ actions “scandalous.” She said people were free to protest,

but had to respect the views of others. Poland’s populist right wing government wants to limit the

number of reporters allowed to cover parliament. However opposition MPs have accused the

government of trying to stifle press freedom.

---Amina Afzal

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MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Egypt

On December 30, Egypt’s Cabinet approved the transfer of two Red Sea islands to Saudi

Arabia.

The agreement between the two countries was signed in April 2016, setting off mass protests in

Egypt. Despite the protests and a court ruling the transfer unconstitutional, the transfer was

announced along with a Saudi aid package. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s government

approved the deal and sent it to parliament for ratification.

Iraq

On December 31, at least 28 people were killed in a double bombing in Baghdad.

Daesh claimed responsibility for the attacks. According to a statement released by Daesh, two of

its militants carried out the suicide bombings. The explosions took place one after another in the

busy al-Sinak market. Baghdad has seen frequent attacks, often targeting Shia districts.

On December 31, Iraqi security forces freed the al-Quds neighbourhood of Mosul city.

On December 29, Iraqi forces made advances following the announcement of a new phase in

their offensive on eastern Mosul. The new phase is a part of an offensive initiated by the Iraqi

forces on October 17, 2016, to reclaim the last major stronghold of Daesh in the country. Since

then, Iraqi forces have retaken several parts of eastern Mosul. However, the western part of the

city remains under Daesh control. Retaking Mosul would end the militant group’s hold on the

country. The fighting has been devastating for the city’s civilian population.

Israel

On December 28, US Secretary of State, John Kerry, presented a six-point formula for

ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, insisting that only a two-state solution could bring

peace to the region.

On December 28, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, condemned John Kerry’s

speech calling it biased.

Secretary Kerry outlined ‘a comprehensive vision’ of the outgoing US Administration on how to

resolve the Middle East dispute. The first point in Kerry’s six-point formula calls for establishing

secure and recognised borders for the proposed Palestinian state with mutually accepted land

swaps. The second point stresses the need for fulfilling the vision of the UN Resolution 181 of

two states for two peoples. The third point urges a resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue

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with international assistance, including compensation, assistance in finding permanent homes

and the acknowledgement of their suffering. The fourth point underlines the need for providing

an agreed resolution for Jerusalem as the capital of two states with freedom of access to holy

sites consistent with the status quo. The fifth point underlines the need to satisfy Israel’s security

needs and to bring an end to the Occupation while ensuring that Israel can defend itself

effectively, and Palestinians can provide security in a non-militarised state. The final point

emphasises the need to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and finally bring closure so that

‘everyone can move ahead to a new era’. Kerry also said, “If we are serious about two-state

solution, the time to start implementing it is now.” Before Kerry’s speech, US President-elect

Donald Trump tweeted a message, accusing the Obama Administration of making inflammatory

statements and damaging relations between Israel and the US. In his tweet, he wrote he could no

longer allow Israel to be treated with disdain and urged Israel to ‘stay strong’ until he takes

office on January 20, 2017. British government also condemned Kerry’s speech on the settlement

issue. A spokesman for May said the British government does not think it is ‘appropriate to

attack the composition of the democratically elected government of an ally’.

On December 18, residents of the Amona settlement in Israeli occupied West Bank voted

to evacuate their hilltop outpost peacefully.

The 40 families living in Amona in the northern West Bank faced a Supreme Court order to leave

the site by December 25, 2016 because it was found to have been built on private Palestinian

land. They approved a revised government proposal to relocate by a vote of 45 for and 29

against. The dispute over whether to demolish the outpost northeast of Ramallah has become

important internationally because of the concern over settlement expansion in the West Bank,

Occupied by Israel since 1967.

On December 16, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed US President-

elect Donald Trump’s nomination of David Friedman as US ambassador to Israel.

Friedman, a bankruptcy attorney, is a supporter of settlement expansion in the occupied West

Bank. A source in Netanyahu’s office said the premier was ‘pleased’ with the appointment.

Earlier, Deputy Foreign Minister, Tzipi Hotovely, called the appointment ‘good news for Israel’.

Friedman also backs moving the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, contrary to

Washington’s longstanding policy of basing its ambassador in Tel Aviv. Minister Hotovely also

noted that Friedman’s position shows the will to strengthen the status of Israel’s capital,

Jerusalem, at this time and an understanding that the settlements have never been the real

problem in the region.

On December 25, the Israeli regime summoned the ambassadors of ten countries that

voted in favour of a UN Security Council resolution calling on Tel Aviv to halt its

settlement expansion on Occupied Palestinian lands.

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On December 23, the UNSC passed Resolution 2334 with unanimous approval from 14 members

and with the US abstaining. The Resolution called on Israel to “immediately and completely

cease all settlement activities in the Occupied Palestinian territory,” including East Jerusalem

al-Quds. The resolution declared the settlements to be without “legal validity” and said their

existence amounted to “a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to…a

just, lasting and comprehensive peace.” Palestinian factions in the West Bank and the Gaza

Strip collectively welcomed the UNSC resolution, with Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki

describing the vote as a “victory for the Palestinian people.” Ambassadors from 10 of the 14

countries that voted in favour of the resolution and have embassies in Israel: Britain, China,

Russia, France, Egypt, Japan, Uruguay, Spain, Ukraine and New Zealand were summoned to the

Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem. During an Israeli cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu criticised Washington for its stance toward the Security Council’s decision.

Netanyahu said that the Administration of US President Barack Obama had allowed the UNSC

to pass the Resolution by refusing to veto it. He blamed Washington for cooperating with

Palestinians to push for the adoption of the Resolution. The White House, however, denied the

allegation. Prior to the vote, Tel Aviv had launched an unsuccessful lobbying campaign to block

the vote and prompt a veto by the US, which surprisingly abstained. The daily Israel Hayom

reported that the so-called Jerusalem al-Quds Local Planning and Building Committee is poised

to approve some 5,600 housing units in East Jerusalem al-Quds. The report added that the move

comes in response to the UNSC resolution, noting that 2,600 housing units are to be built in the

illegal Gilo settlement in southwestern East Jerusalem al-Quds, 2,600 others in Givat HaMatos,

and 400 units in the Ramat Shlomo settlement. More than half a million Israelis live in over 230

illegal settlements built since the 1967 Israeli Occupation of the Palestinian territories including

West Bank and East Jerusalem al-Quds. The continued expansion of Israeli settlements in

Occupied Palestine has created a major obstacle to the efforts towards establishing peace in the

Middle East.

Oman

According to official SPA news agency on December 29, Oman joined the Saudi-led

military coalition aimed at fighting terrorism.

Oman maintains good ties with Saudi Arabia and became the 41st nation in the alliance which

was announced by Saudi Defence Minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in

2015. The official agency said Mohammed bin Salman received a message from his Omani

counterpart praising Saudi efforts in showing ‘leadership in the Islamic military coalition

fighting terrorism’. Oman did not initially join the Saudi-led coalition fighting rebels in Yemen.

However, the country had hosted several rounds of talks aimed at ending the conflict in Yemen.

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Syria

On December 31, UN Security Council unanimously approved the resolution supporting

a Russian-Turkish peace initiative for Syria.

On December 29, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, announced a nationwide ceasefire

deal across Syria from midnight and that the warring parties had agreed to sit down for

peace talks.

Turkish state-run Anadolu news agency reported on December 28, that the deal was brokered by

Russia and Turkey, which allowed the evacuation of thousands of civilians. Russia also urged the

UNSC to quickly adopt a draft resolution endorsing the ceasefire agreement in Syria and

reiterating support for a roadmap to peace that starts with a transitional government. The draft

resolution called for ‘rapid, safe and unhindered’ access to deliver humanitarian aid throughout

the country. This development could be a major breakthrough in nearly six years of war in Syria

and comes a week after rebel resistance was crushed in the second city of Aleppo. Although on

opposing sides in the conflict, Turkey and Russia have been working to find a ceasefire solution

after the fall of Aleppo. The US has not been included in the process. Russian Defence Minister,

Sergei Shoigu, said that the seven opposition groups, including the powerful Ahrar al-Sham, that

have signed up to the agreements after months of talks, comprise some 62,000 fighters and

control a large portion of territory in central and northern Syria. He also warned that any

groups that did not abide by the ceasefire would be considered terrorists alongside the former Al

Qaeda affiliate Fateh al-Sham Front and Daesh. The UNSC said that it ‘welcomes and supports

the efforts by Russia and Turkey to end violence in Syria and jumpstart a political process’.

According to observers, the development would form the basis of upcoming political negotiations

between the Damascus regime and the opposition, overseen by Russia and Turkey in the Kazakh

capital Astana.

Following a meeting with a joint delegation in Damascus on December 29, Syrian

President Bashar al Assad said the crisis in Syria is mainly rooted in foreign support for

extremist groups inspired by Wahhabism.

The joint delegation comprised members of the European Parliament as well as members of the

Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament. Assad lashed out at the

European countries for supporting different terrorist groups under the name of “moderates”. He

said, “Their priority is not fighting terrorism; their priority is using those cards in order to

change governments and to get rid of presidents, and so on.” During the meeting, Assad called

on European states to stop their support for Takfiri terrorists and recognise the Syrian nation’s

right to decide its own fate.

According to the Pentagon on December 29, a key military commander of Daesh in

Syria, Abu Jandal Al Kuwaiti, was killed in an air strike carried out by the US-led

coalition.

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Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group described Al Kuwaiti as the “number

two military commander for Daesh in Syria.” The commander had led battles in Iraq and Syria,

and was most recently assigned to Raqqa where he oversaw attacks on the Syrian Democratic

Forces (SDF). The SDF, an Arab-Kurdish alliance backed by US ground and air forces,

launched an offensive to retake Raqqa in early November 2016. Al Kuwaiti was involved in using

suicide vehicles, IEDs and chemical weapons against the SDF. According to the CENTCOM, Al

Kuwaiti’s death would impede Daesh’s ability to defend Raqqa, as well as undermine the

group’s ability to launch attacks in the West.

On December 22, the evacuation of rebels from their last enclave in Aleppo was

completed as the last four buses left the city.

According to the Red Cross, more than 4,000 fighters left rebel-held areas of Aleppo in the last

stages of an evacuation clearing the way for Syria’s army to retake the city. The end to the

evacuation of rebel-held eastern Aleppo would mark Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s

assumption of full control over the city after four years of fighting. According to the UN, a total

of 34,000 people, both civilians and fighters, were evacuated from eastern Aleppo in a weeklong

operation. However, it is estimated that thousands more remain in enclaves.

Turkey

On the New Year’s Eve, a gunman attacked the Reina nightclub in Istanbul killing at

least 36 people including 16 foreigners.

Governor of Istanbul, Vasip Sahin, described the shooting as a terrorist attack. According to

him, one assailant shot a police officer and a civilian as he entered the nightclub before opening

fire at random. Some reports suggested there were multiple attackers. The club, popular with

locals and foreigners alike, is located at the bank of the Bosphorus Strait separating Europe and

Asia in the cosmopolitan Ortakoy district. Around 500 to 600 people were thought to have been

inside when the gunman opened fire at around 1:15am. Some jumped into the waters of the

Bosphorus to save themselves and were rescued by police. The attack again shook Turkey as it

tries to recover from a failed coup and a series of deadly bombings in cities including Istanbul

and the capital Ankara, some blamed on Daesh and others claimed by Kurdish militants.

On December 19, Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was shot in the back

and killed as he gave a speech at an art gallery in Ankara.

The ambassador was shot by an off-duty police officer who shouted ‘Don’t forget Aleppo’ as he

opened fire. The Turkish and Russian presidents spoke on phone after the murder and vowed not

to allow the incident to derail bilateral relations. In televised comments later, President Putin

called the killing a provocation aimed at sabotaging the warming of ties between Moscow and

Ankara and efforts to resolve the conflict in Syria. The Russian Foreign Ministry termed the

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killing a ‘terrorist act’. Relations between Moscow and Ankara have long been strained over the

conflict in Syria, with the two supporting opposite sides in the war. Russia is an ally of Syrian

President Bashar al Assad and its air strikes helped Syrian forces end rebel resistance in Aleppo.

Turkey, which seeks Assad’s ouster, has sought to repair its ties with Moscow after shooting

down a Russian warplane over Syria in 2015.

On December 17, at least 13 Turkish soldiers were killed and many wounded in a suicide

car bombing targeting off-duty soldiers in the city of Kayseri.

The government said all signs suggested the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) was

behind the bombing. Kayseri is a usually calm industrial hub in the heart of Anatolia. President

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the acts of terror in Turkey were aimed “at all 79 million of our

citizens including our soldiers and police”. Turkey has seen a series of deadly bombings in 2016

blamed on both jihadists and Kurdish militants. The Turkish military stepped up operations

against the PKK after a fragile ceasefire broke down in the summer of 2015. Since then, there

has been a surge in violence in the country.

Yemen

On December 18, at least 48 Yemeni soldiers were killed in a suicide attack in Aden.

Daesh claimed responsibility for the attacks. A similar attack carried out by Daesh, earlier in

December 2016, killed 48 soldiers and wounded 29 others. Yemeni authorities have fought a

long campaign against militants who remain active in the south and east of the country. Daesh

and Al Qaeda have taken advantage of the conflict between the government and Yemen’s Houthi

rebels, who control the capital Sanaa, to bolster their presence across much of the south. The

two extremist groups have carried out a series of attacks in Aden.

---Muhammad Shoaib

26

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan

External

The Nation reported on December 31, citing official of the Pakistan’s Foreign Office, that

Pakistan has finalised a dossier against arrested Indian spy Kulbushan Jhadav and Indian

subversive activities inside Pakistan adding that the dossiers will be presented to the new

Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres soon after he takes over the office in

January 2017.

Pakistan’s security forces arrested Jhadav, a serving Indian naval officer and an operative of

India’s intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), on March 24, 2016. Jhadav

confessed that he was promoting unrest in Balochistan and Karachi and had been working with

the Baloch insurgents and terrorist organisations. Pakistan has consistently accused India of

destabilising the country by sponsoring and orchestrating terrorism inside Pakistan and aiding

separatist groups in Balochistan. The Indian External Affairs Ministry accepted that Jhadav was

a former Indian Navy official, however it claimed he had no links with the government. The

dossier also contains video evidences of an Indian submarine’s attempted violation of the

Pakistani maritime boundary.

On December 27, Russia, China and Pakistan cautioned that the influence of Daesh

militant group was increasing in Afghanistan and also that the security situation was fast

deteriorating in the country.

The warning came in the aftermath of the third round of talks on the “deteriorating situation in

Afghanistan” between Russia, China and Pakistan. The three sides also agreed to invite the

Afghan government to such talks as so far the tripartite consultations between Russia, China and

Pakistan have excluded Kabul. Following the meeting, Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry

spokesman, Ahmad Shekib Mustaghni, raised “serious questions” about not consulting Kabul on

the matter saying, “We are worried about what the reasons behind the meeting are and want the

relevant parties to explain.” Meanwhile, the three countries reiterated their support for the

Afghan reconciliation process. There are also reports suggesting the possible inclusion of Iran in

the consultations. The three countries also called for “flexible approaches” on UN sanctioned

Afghan persons to promote “dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban”.

Both the Afghan government and its security forces are facing severe challenges in dealing with

the resurgent Taliban as the security situation worsens in the country. There are estimates that

about one-fifth of the country is being controlled or contested by the Taliban. Experts believe the

exclusion of the US from the tripartite consultations on Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate

concerns in Washington, which has been increasing its cooperation with New Delhi on Afghan

peace efforts.

27

In a letter to Jim Yong Kim, the President of the World Bank on December 23, Pakistan’s

Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar urged the World Bank to appoint the chairman of the Court

of Arbitration as per the Indus Water Treaty on Pak-India dispute over Kishanganga and

Ratle projects.

Dar also noted in his letter that the group’s decision of putting a hold on the process of

formation of a court of arbitration would “seriously prejudice” Pakistan’s interests and its

rights under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The letter was in response to the World Bank’s

decision to put the process of “empanelment of the Court of Arbitration” on hold. Pakistan had

approached the World Bank on September 27, 2016, against India’s construction of Ratle and

Kishanganga hydropower dams located in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), seeking the

formation of an arbitration court on this matter. India, meanwhile, suggested appointing a single

neutral expert for mediation. The World Bank ‘temporarily’ paused the appointment of a neutral

expert requested by India and the chairman of the Court of Arbitration requested by Pakistan, to

resolve issues. The World Bank said that the “processes initiated by India and Pakistan were

advancing at the same time, creating a risk of contradictory outcomes that could potentially

endanger the Treaty.”

During his visit to Bosnia on December 22, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met with

Chairman of the Council of Ministers H.E. Denis Zvizdic. Following the meeting, the

two sides also underlined the importance of further deepening of political, trade and

economic ties, defence cooperation and enhancing cultural and educational relations.

The two sides also agreed to strengthen cooperation in areas including terrorism, organised

crime and anti-narcotics. PM Sharif said that cooperation in the power sector and the energy

crisis in Pakistan also came under discussion. The visit is seen as part of Pakistan’s efforts for

international outreach aimed at expanding its economic ties with the Balkan states.

On December 22, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman, Nafees Zakaria rejected the

latest report by the US Department of Defence on security and stability situation in

Afghanistan. According to the report, the Taliban and Haqqani network are freely

operating from Pakistan.

Zakaria accused Afghanistan of being an epicentre of terrorism in the region. The report noted

that the “Afghan-oriented militant groups, including Taliban and the Haqqani network’s senior

leadership,” are freely operating from Pakistani territory. It further said that the US is “clear

with Pakistan about steps it should take to improve the security environment and deny safe

havens to terrorist and extremist groups.” Zakaria stressed that a number of “senior

commanders of Haqqani network, Taliban, Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups had been killed

in Afghanistan suggesting that the leadership of these militant organisations were based in

Afghanistan. Zakaria also recalled the counterterrorism operations carried out by the Pakistani

security forces in FATA.

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On November 20, Zheng Xiaosong, China’s Vice Minister of International Department of

the Central Committee of Communist Party of China, said that Pakistani political parties

should unite for the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The Chinese minister emphasised the need for public support for guaranteeing “safe and stable

environment for investment” and developing “sound political and public opinion” for the

project. Dispelling the perception that CPEC was benefiting some of the provinces more, Zheng

maintained that it was for “entire Pakistan”. On concerns that India and some of the other

countries were conspiring against CPEC, Zheng said the project’s success would be the best

response to its opponents.

During his visit to Saudi Arabia on December 18, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar

Javed Bajwa met with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

The two sides stressed that both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are “vital players in regional

stability, with significant responsibility towards the entire Muslim ummah”. Both leaders also

reiterated the need to continue working to eliminate the menace of terrorism. General Bajwa

also reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to the security and protection of the Holy Mosques and

also the territorial integrity of the kingdom.

On December 16, a man was killed and eight schoolchildren were injured in Kotli district

of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) after Indian shelling from across the Line of Control

(LoC).

Following the incident, Pakistan’s Foreign Office summoned a senior Indian diplomat and

lodged a strong protest over ceasefire violations calling the Indian side to respect the 2003

ceasefire agreement. On November 23, 2016, Indian troops attacked a bus with arms and

mortars in AJK, which killed 10 people. On December 3, the newly-elected Army Chief, General

Qamar Javed Bajwa vowed that any LoC violation would be responded to with full force and in

the most effective manner. Tension between Pakistan and India increased after India started a

crackdown on civilians in Indian Occupied Kashmir killing more than 100 people and injuring

thousands. The protests erupted after the Indian forces killed a popular separatist leader Burhan

Wani in an operation on July 2016.

Pakistan

Internal

On December 31, Justice Saqib Nisar was sworn in as the 25th Chief Justice of Pakistan.

Justice Nisar has succeeded Chief Justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali. His term will end in January,

2019.

On December 28, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, inaugurated power production from the

340 megawatt Chashma-III nuclear power plant near Mianwali.

29

The power project is a joint collaboration between the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission

(PAEC) and China National Nuclear Corporation. It was executed by the PAEC under the

guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The prime minister said a fourth

Chashma plant is expected to be commissioned by April 2017. Chashma-III is expected to add

340 megawatt electricity to the national grid. Pakistan, an energy deficit country, aims to

produce 8,800MW from atomic energy by 2030.

India

On December 30, China blocked India’s request at the UN to list Masood Azhar, the

chief of banned Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) as a designated terrorist.

Following the decision, Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman, Vikas Swarup said “This

decision by China is surprising as China itself has been affected by the scourge of terrorism.”

Beijing said the decision was made following the absence of consensus on the issue among

members of the UN committee. This is the third time China has imposed “technical hold” on

India’s proposal. During the meeting between Indian National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval and

China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi in November 2016, China said that there would be no

change in its approach toward Masood Azhar. China has previously maintained “The 1267

Committee should base its judgments on solid evidence and decide upon consensus among the

members of the Security Council.” India has accused Jaish-e-Mohammad and its chief, Masood

Azhar of masterminding several attacks, including assault on an Indian air base in January

2016.

BBC reported on December 22 that India is stepping up efforts to maximise its use of the

western rivers of the Indus basin.

Citing an Indian official the report noted that the move would involve building huge storage

facilities and canals. The three rivers flow through Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) but most of

the water is allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). The officials, however,

said the move would not violate the IWT. Meanwhile, quoting unnamed experts the report said

that India is using the water issue to pressurise Pakistan in the dispute over Kashmir. The IWT

was signed in 1960 and allocated the three eastern rivers the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej to India,

while the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were allocated to Pakistan. Pakistan’s concerns increased

after Indian PM Narendra Modi threatened to block waters flowing into Pakistan. Earlier, on

December 1, Pakistan’s Foreign Office had also warned India of its obligations under the IWT

and cautioned that New Delhi’s own credibility would suffer if the accord were violated.

Islamabad has made it clear to New Delhi that any such move would be considered an “act of

war”.

On December 19, India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA), charged Jaish-e-

Mohammed (JeM) and its chief Masood Azhar for attacking the Pathankot air force base

in January 2016.

30

India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA) said that Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief, Masood

Azhar was the mastermind behind the Pathankot attack and that all four gunmen who attacked

the air base were Pakistani nationals. The charge-sheet cited DNA samples, Pakistani food

packets, a walkie-talkie set and a note found in a car used by the militants to drive to the base.

Authorities in India say that evidence would be offered to Pakistan to take action against the

perpetrators of the assault. India had accused Pakistan for the January 2 Pathankot attack

which resulted in the death of at least seven Indian soldiers. Following the attack, Pakistan took

Masood Azhar, into ‘protective custody’ and also sent its probe team including officials from the

Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to investigate the attack. However, the investigating team, on

returning home, claimed that India did not share credible evidence and also did not allowed it to

investigate security officials.

During his visit to Washington on December 19, India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit

Doval met US president-elect Donald Trump’s NSA-designate Retired General Michael

Flynn.

In a related development, on December 20, National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval also

met US Secretary of State John Kerry in Washington.

According to reports in the Indian media, the two sides discussed a wide range of regional and

global strategic issues and explored ways to further Indo-US ties. Meanwhile Michael Flynn

expressed his “optimism” about India-US engagement as the two leaders reviewed the entire

relationship including its strategic and economic aspects.

According to the Indian Defence Ministry on January 17, the government has decided to

appoint Lieutenant General Bipin Rawat as the new army chief and Anil Dhasmana as the

new chief of India’s external intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing.

Rawat has previously served in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), where Pakistani and Indian

troops have remained locked in almost daily cross-border firing for months. Meanwhile, Indian

media reports stated that Anil Dhasmana is renowned for his expertise on Balochistan and has

served on important desks including Pakistan.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

31

UNITED NATIONS

On December 29, UN Special Rapporteurs on racism and xenophobia, Mutuma Ruteere

and Ahmed Shaheed, appreciated the US for dismantling a national registry programme

targeting people visiting from countries that are home to active terrorist groups.

Calling the National Security Entry-Exit Registration System (NSEERS), discriminatory and

ineffective, Ruteere and Shaheed said that the programme has led to both racial and religious

profiling. The programme was applied to citizens from 25 countries in the Middle East, South

Asia, and North Africa. According to UN human rights experts, effective counterterrorism

strategies and legislation should not be based on preconceptions or misunderstandings about

groups that are most susceptible to radicalisation or violent extremism. Instead, strategies

should be developed in accordance with evidence in order to ensure proper understanding. Out

of the 80,000 people who were registered, not a single one was prosecuted under the policy. Of

the 14,000 deportation proceedings, not a single person was found to have any links with

terrorist groups.

On December 29, a study conducted by the UN indicated that during 2016 Israeli

authorities demolished or seized 1,089 Palestinian-owned structures throughout the West

Bank, including East Jerusalem, consequently, displacing 1,593 Palestinians and

impacting the livelihoods of another 7,101 people.

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the

overwhelming majority of structures that were seized or destroyed were done because of a lack

of Israeli-issued building permits. As of the end of November 2016, some 51,000 Palestinians

had been displaced in the Gaza Strip following the loss of their homes during the 2014

escalation. However, the number of casualties and injuries among both Palestinians and

Israelis has decreased, according to data analysed by OCHA. OCHA started recording the

information in 2009.

On December 19, the United Nations and the State of Palestine launched an appeal

seeking $547 million in funding for 2017 to support humanitarian needs in the Occupied

Palestinian Territory.

According to the UN Coordinator for Humanitarian Aid and Development Activities, Robert

Piper, international support is critical to continue providing relief to vulnerable Palestinians.

Piper said that the humanitarian response must be coupled with bold political action in order to

end the world’s most protracted crisis. The joint appeal seeks $547 million in funding to

implement 243 projects by 95 organisations, including 47 national and 35 international non-

governmental organisations, and 13 UN agencies. Nearly 70% of the requested funds target

Gaza, where humanitarian needs are the highest due to the blockade and continued hostilities.

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An assessment made by the UN indicates that 1.8 million people are in urgent need of

humanitarian aid in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

On December 19, Tadamichi Yamamoto, the UN Secretary-General’s Special

Representative for Afghanistan, called on the Taliban to participate in peace talks with

the national Government in order to achieve meaningful peace and stability in the

country, possible only through intra-Afghan dialogue.

Yamamoto said that the Taliban leadership must reconsider the notion that their objectives can

only be achieved on the battlefield. While urging all the conflicting parties to engage in direct

talks with the Government without preconditions, he stated that the only path to meaningful

peace is by Afghans talking directly to Afghans. He further explained that the Afghan leaders

have continued working to overcome their differences to advance the country’s reform agenda,

since the formation of a national unity Government in Afghanistan. Yamamoto also urged

regional countries to play their role in establishing peace in Afghanistan because stable

conditions would benefit them also in terms of security and economy.

--- Moiz Khan