December 16, 2016 Presentation Slides - ND Pipeline Authority · 12/16/2016 · December 16, 2016...
Transcript of December 16, 2016 Presentation Slides - ND Pipeline Authority · 12/16/2016 · December 16, 2016...
December 16, 2016
Presentation Slides
December 16, 2016
Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer
Director
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Presentation Outline
• Understanding current and future oil production
– Activity
– Drilling economics
– Forecasts
• Williston Basin oil transportation dynamics
– Interstate oil movements
– Intrastate oil movements
• North Dakota natural gas production
– Flaring and gas capture
– Natural Gas Liquids
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North Dakota Drilling Activity
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Initial Production (IP) Year – 2016 YTD Non-Confidential
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Bakken IP Rates
Average BKN/TF Well Performance in Williams, McKenzie, Dunn, & Mountrail Counties (Minimum 1 bopd)
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Improving Well Performance
Average BKN/TF Well Performance in Williams, McKenzie, Dunn, & Mountrail Counties (Minimum 1 bopd)
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Improving Well Performance
A Quick Look at Bakken
Drilling Economics…
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North Dakota Oil Differential
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Based on EIA Data
Key Economic Assumptions
• $6-$8 Million Well Costs
• $45/BBL & $2.00/MCF Wellhead Pricing
• 1/6 Royalty
• Zero Flaring
• Assumed 10-20% IRR to drill (calculated after
production taxes and royalties)
• No Tax Incentives Included
• Production rate is 30-day average
• All Bakken/Three Forks wells drilled in 2008+
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© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 400 BOPD
$45 Wellhead
6,616 Wells
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 500 BOPD
4,972 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 600 BOPD
3,533 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 700 BOPD
2,319 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 800 BOPD
1,500 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 900 BOPD
930 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 1,000 BOPD
587 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 1,200 BOPD
250 Wells
$45 Wellhead
© OpenStreetMap contributors
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Peak Month Minimum 1,500 BOPD
70 Wells
$45 Wellhead
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Summary of $45 Wellhead Oil
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Breakeven Summary
Forecasting Future Activity…
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US Crude Oil Storage (Excl. SPR)
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US Crude Oil Storage (Excl. SPR)
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North Dakota Forecast Activity Assumptions
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*Non-Confidential Bakken/Three Forks Production Only
Base Production Declines*
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NDPA ND Oil Production Forecast
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NDPA ND Oil Production Forecast
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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast
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Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should
not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Presentation Outline
• Understanding current and future oil production
– Activity
– Drilling economics
– Forecasts
• Williston Basin oil transportation dynamics
– Interstate oil movements
– Intrastate oil movements
• North Dakota natural gas production
– Flaring and gas capture
– Natural Gas Liquids
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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October 2016
Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Rail Destinations Market Share (Sep. 2016)
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Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration
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Major Rail Lines and Refineries
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$45.11
$42.67
$41.81
$40.22
$44.21
EIA September 2016 Refiner Acquisition Cost
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Cushing $51.56
Brent $54.81 WTI + $3.25
Crude Oil Prices – Dec 16, 2016
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Pricing Data: Bloomberg
Williston Basin Truck Imports and Exports with Canada
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Data for truck imports/exports chart is provided by the US International Trade Commission
Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should
not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Evolution of Oil Gathering in ND
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Evolution of Oil Gathering in ND Statewide Totals
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Estimated Loaded Oil Truckloads Per Day
April 2015 Data 220 bbls/Truck
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Presentation Outline
• Understanding current and future oil production
– Activity
– Drilling economics
– Forecasts
• Williston Basin oil transportation dynamics
– Interstate oil movements
– Intrastate oil movements
• North Dakota natural gas production
– Flaring and gas capture
– Natural Gas Liquids
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Major Gas Pipeline and
Processing Infrastructure
WBI Transmission
Whiting
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Simple Terms Blue – Lack of pipelines Orange – Challenges on existing infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold Blue – % flared from zero sales wells Orange – % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold.
Oct 2016 Data – Non-Confidential Wells Statewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Solving the Flaring Challenge
Capturing the 2% Faster Well Connections
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Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Wellhead Gas Capture – Locations
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Wellhead Gas Capture – Intake Volume
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Wellhead Gas Capture – NGL Output
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Wellhead & Plant Gas Capture
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Wellhead & Plant Gas Capture
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Plant Natural Gas Liquids - (Aug. 2016)
NDPA ND Gas Production Forecast
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Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227
Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: [email protected]
Websites:
www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Contact Information
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