DECAY OF WEAK SOLUTIONS TO THE 2D DISSIPATIVE
Transcript of DECAY OF WEAK SOLUTIONS TO THE 2D DISSIPATIVE
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 1
Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium
January 20, 2010, Washington, DC
Richard G. Newell, Administrator
The Energy Outlook and Climate Change
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 2
Overview
• Global energy outlook
• U.S. energy outlook
• EIA’s analysis of HR 2454, the American Clean
Energy and Security Act (ACESA)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 3
The Global Energy Outlook
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 4
Non-OECD countries account for 82% of the increase in
global energy use to 2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qu
ad
rillio
n B
tu
OECD Non-OECD
472508
552596
637678
51%
49%
41%
59%
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 5
Renewables are the fastest growing energy source
(but from a relatively small base)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qu
ad
rillio
n B
tu
Liquids (including biofuels)
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewables
(excluding biofuels)
Nuclear
History Projections
36%
23%
27%
8%
6%
32%
28%
11%
23%
6%
Share of
World
Total
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 6
Growth in worldwide economic activity, and population
growth in some regions, drives increased energy use
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
US
OE
CD
Euro
pe
Japan
Chin
a
India
Mid
dle
East
Russia
Bra
zil
Perc
ent
per
Year
Population
GDP per Capita
Energy Use per GDP
Source: US: Published AEO2009 (March 2009); ROW: GDP Assumptions based on IHS Global Insight, Inc.;
Population from UN World Population Prospects (2006 Revision)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 7
Absent new policies, energy-related CO2 emissions grow 39%
between 2006 and 2030 in EIA’s reference case
13.6 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.6
15.4 17.619.5
21.523.7
25.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
Non-OECD
OECD
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 8
The U.S. Energy Outlook
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Non-fossil energy grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still
provide 78% energy use in 2035 in EIA’s Reference Case
quadrillion Btu
Coal
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
ProjectionsHistory
Nuclear
Liquid biofuels
Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 10
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy and CO2 per dollar GDP continue to decline;
per capita energy use also declines
index, 2005=1
Energy per capita
Energy per dollar GDP
ProjectionsHistory
CO2 per dollar GDP
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 11
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Growth in electricity use continues to slow
3-year rolling average percent growth
Projections
History
Period Annual Growth
1950s 9.8
1960s 7.3
1970s 4.7
1980s 2.9
1990s 2.4
2000-2008 0.9
2008-2035 1.0
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 12
Renewables gain electricity market share;
coal share declines
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
billion kilowatthours and percent shares
Natural gas
Renewable
ProjectionsHistory
Nuclear
Oil and other
Coal48.543.8
21.4
20.8
19.6 17.1
9.1
17.0
1.41.5
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 13
0.3% per year
8.7% growth
Assuming no new policies, growth in energy-related CO2 is
driven by electricity and transportation fuel use
Transportation
1,925 (33%)
Buildings and
Industrial
1,530 (26%)
Electric Power
2,359 (41%)
2008
5,814million metric
tons
2035
6,320million metric
tons
Transportation
2,115 (33%)
Buildings and
Industrial
1,571 (25%)
Electric Power
2,634 (42%)
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 14
EIA Analysis of HR 2454
The American Clean Energy and
Security Act (ACESA)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Reference Case
Covered Emissions, Reference Case
Cap on Covered Emissions
Cumulative difference, 2012-2030 = 24.6 BMT
CO2-equivalent emissions, billion metric tons
Use of Offsets = ? BMT
ACESA requires 24.6- billion-metric-ton reduction in covered GHG
emissions over 2012-2030; actual reductions could be smaller or larger
depending on the use of offsets and banking behavior
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 16
Main cases in EIA’s analysis
Case Name Assumptions
BasicIntegrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of
ACESA.
Zero Bank
Same as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond
2030. Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy technology
breakthroughs with significant market impacts after 2030
High OffsetsSame as Basic but assumes increased use of
international offsets.
High CostSame as Basic but assumes that nuclear, fossil with
CCS and biomass gasification costs are 50 % higher
No InternationalSame as Basic but assumes international offsets are too
expensive or unable to meet the requirements for use
No International / Limited
Same as Basic but limits additions of nuclear, fossil with
CCS and biomass to reference case levels. Also no
international offsets.
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost No
International
No
Int'l/Limited
Energy-Related CO2 Carbon Capture and Storage
Non-Energy-CO2 covered emissions Offsets, Biosequestration
Offsets, Noncovered emissions Offsets, International
- - - - - Required Abatement - - - - -
Energy sector reductions (2 bottom sections) vary with
availability of offsets and low-emitting generation options
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
Cumulative compliance, 2012-2030 (billion metric tons)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Basic Zero Bank High Offsets
High Cost No International No Int / Limited
Projected allowance prices depend on the availability of
offsets and low/no carbon electricity generation technologies
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(2007 dollars per metric ton CO2-equivalent)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 19
561 576 534 543 543 527 519 494
987 955 855 879 880 847 815 779
2009 20371952 1985 1986 1942 1915 1868
2433 2639
1074
1886 18311573
384908
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost No
International
No Int /
Limited
Electric Pow er
Transportation
Industrial
Buildings
2030
The electricity sector dominates projected reductions
in energy-related CO2 emissions
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(million metric tons CO2)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 20
20212296
841
1650 15931281
100 285
015
513
262 304293
440 15
892976
636
708 713880
5921638
806
890
1548
1147 1151 923
1863890
352
798
1021979 987
9741399
1315
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank High
Offsets
High Cost No
Interational
No Int /
Limited
Coal Coal w /CCS Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas w /CCS Nuclear Renew able
Generation by 2030 shifts from conventional coal to
nuclear, renewables, and fossil+CCS, though natural gas
use grows dramatically if other options are limited
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(billion kilowatthours)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 21
0.90%
0.64%0.72% 0.72%
0.57% 0.56%
0.21%
2.39%
1.15%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost No
International
No Int /
Limited
2007 to 2030 Growth
Efficiency programs and higher electricity prices
reduce electricity demand growth
Annual percent growth in electricity use
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference Basic Zero Bank
High Offsets High Cost No International
No Int / Limited
Electricity prices stay near baseline through 2025 in all
but one case, then rise to higher levels through 2030
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(2007 cents per kilowatthour, all sectors average)
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 23
-415
-273
-323
-196
-392
-252
-600
-384-4
96
-323
-1521
-988
-1750
-1500
-1250
-1000
-750
-500
-250
0
Undiscounted Present Value @ 4%
Basic
Zero Bank
High OffsetHigh Cost
No International
No Int/Limited
Cumulative Change in Real GDP Real GDP
15398
19875
15348
19714
15380
19771
15373
19755
15328
19661
15365
19649
15286
19422
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2020 2030
ReferenceBasicZero BankHigh OffsetHigh CostNo InternationalNo Int/Limited
Cumulative Change in Real Consumption Real Consumption
-896
-566-736
-432
-829
-523
-1249
-781
-1179
-717
-3024
-1897
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
Undiscounted Present Value @ 4%
Basic
Zero Bank
High OffsetHigh Cost
No International
No Int/Limited
10817
14069
10796
14006
10810
14033
10806
14019
10787
13972
10802
14000
10753
13889
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2020 2030
ReferenceBasicZero BankHigh OffsetHigh CostNo InternationalNo Int/Limited
Present-value GDP losses over 2012-2030 range from 0.2% to 0.4%;
consumption losses range from 0.1% to 0.3% in 5 analysis cases. Impacts are
much higher in the No International/Limited Alternatives case.
Richard Newell, Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policy Symposium, January 2010 24
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Monthly Energy Review www.eia.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html
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